they could lose both the way theyre playing. The northwestern game was ugly this weekend and I think the wind is totally out of their sails after what’s transpired since they booed injured players.
Rose Bowl
- Thread starter ShinerTexas
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they could lose both the way theyre playing. The northwestern game was ugly this weekend and I think the wind is totally out of their sails after what’s transpired since they booed injured players.
I hope they lose all 3. I had more confidence in Minny beating them prior to Minny losing to Illinois. I can see Nebraska beating them in Lincoln. I just want them to get to at least 3 losses.
after this season I hope they lose every week unless an Iowa win directly benefits us. F that fanbase.
Same feelings from me--Hope Iowa loses to anyone/everyone they play. I think Minnesota could do it. Nebraska is bound to pull out one of these close games.
However, on a side note, Nebraska gets way too much credit for being in 'one-score' games when they half of those this season have been due to them scoring late in the game to make it one-score with little to no time to get the ball back and tie or win it.
All of this talk about Rose Bowl takes who they want is just talk. They take the highest ranked B10/P12 teams not already selected in the playoff. The 2019 issue was because of three reasons:
In terms of hypotheticals, because that's what this really is when you discuss whether we can beat Mich and Mich State. I'm not sure anything in the past month would give anyone an indication they can run the table. But, like everyone else, I like playing out these thought experiments. Let's assume Iowa and we finish 9-3. I think these would be the key factors:
However, on a side note, Nebraska gets way too much credit for being in 'one-score' games when they half of those this season have been due to them scoring late in the game to make it one-score with little to no time to get the ball back and tie or win it.
All of this talk about Rose Bowl takes who they want is just talk. They take the highest ranked B10/P12 teams not already selected in the playoff. The 2019 issue was because of three reasons:
- Fox announcer (Joel Klatt) arguing FOR Wisc to be in the Rose Bowl. He was practically pleading for it. It was just plain odd since he really had no dog in the fight. It sounded so personal.
- Wisconsin played very well vs OSU in the B10 champ. game. Remember they were up 21-7 at halftime. We lost by 11 and they lost by 13 but you could argue they played them tougher.
In terms of hypotheticals, because that's what this really is when you discuss whether we can beat Mich and Mich State. I'm not sure anything in the past month would give anyone an indication they can run the table. But, like everyone else, I like playing out these thought experiments. Let's assume Iowa and we finish 9-3. I think these would be the key factors:
- Where are we in the CFP Rankings. Really this will be the deciding factor but we have to at least be somewhat close to them beginning tonight so we can overtake them.
- Wins vs teams with a winning record - PSU - 5 (I'm assuming Ball State wins 2 of last 3 and Maryland can't win 2 of 3) and Iowa - 4 or 5 (depending on whether they can beat Minnesota)
- Record vs teams in CFP - PSU - 3-2 (Wins - Wisc/Mich/MSU and Losses - Iowa/OSU) and Iowa - 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 or 2-2 (too many factors to predict since Purdue could stay in final CFP, Minnesota could as well)
- Head to Head - Iowa got this one
- Best win - PSU - either Michigan or Mich State and Iowa - PSU
- Most loss - PSU - Illinois and Iowa - unless they lose to Illinois or Nebraska, it could be Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Purdue
- Strength of schedule - Not sure what the data points are on this but I have to assume by end of the season, PSU would have the edge here
If it is a NY6, I honestly do not care who opponent is. That would likely mean we finished regular season 9-3. If it is a lesser bowl, opponent becomes more important to me.
They have, but that isn't written anywhere. They are free to select whoever.
The two logical/defensible options are the championship game runner up and the highest ranked team available. From the big ten, they've selected replacements twice and conveniently both times the CCG loser was the second highest ranked team behind the playoff participant. On the pac side, they've only selected one replacement, 2016. They skipped the CCG loser Colorado for USC who was ranked 1 spot ahead in the rankings. Both finished with 3 losses. USC won the H2H in the regular season.
It may be a bit messier this year.
Don’t forget, instead of being “done” you could also choose to be “over it.” Or even “so over it.” Though I don’t know the mechanics of those options either. I figure it’s good to have choices though.
'Done' mean to stop peeing in a can and getting up to use the actual toilet when the game is on.
The problem with this scenario is Iowa. Should Iowa and Wisconsin win out, both schools will have identical 7 and 2 records in the Big Ten sending Wisconsin to the Big Ten Championship game by way of the head to head tie breaker leaving a 10 win Iowa team. Assuming a Wisconsin loss in the Big Ten title game, by rule, Iowa will go to the Rose Bowl if say Ohio State goes to the playoffs as they would have two fewer losses than Wisconsin. Even if we win out, we still need Iowa to lose to receive Rose Bowl consideration. Even then, if Iowa loses and it does come down to 9-3 teams, Michigan will have the edge as they have not been to the Rose Bowl in a very long time. The other three have been there much more recently.
Bottom line, the Rose Bowl is a pipe dream. The Citrus is probably absolute best case but we may not be considered to the recently played rule. Outback is the much more realistic option.
IF we win Saturday we will be in the teens. IF we WIN OUT we will be about 10.
Our best case is Auburn and Wiscy keep winning. Also MSU/Um lose only to us and OSU. If that happens we should be the highest ranked 3 lads team which should be about 10. We will have 4 top 20 wins at that point. It will be hard to use metrics against us.
Your scenario doesn’t factor in Iowa. They need to lose once, possibly twice for us to jump them.
I don’t disagree Iowa goes in this scenario but it isn’t “by rule” as there is no set rule.
The B1G West team that loses in the Champ game will go to the Rose Bowl if its between them and PSU. Even Wiscy with 4 loses would go because of the Godfather! Now a Michigan school is another question. PSU will always be screwed by the B1G whenever they can screw them. That we have learned over the years.
You are correct, there is no direct rule. However, there are a bunch of rules that will lead to Iowa being the choice by way of a 10-2 record, assuming they win out and Wisconsin loses the Big Ten title game.
Still no rules that say it’s Iowa in that scenario. Some norms but not rules. Feel free to post them though, I’d like to see it because I’ve found nothing other than the throwaway line on the rose bowl site that they traditionally take the next highest ranked cfp team.
I think in all these scenarios there’s a decent likelihood it may be Michigan if they’re 9-3 with close losses to us, msu and OSU. They haven’t been in 20 years. The conference wants them to be relevant s I can see them remaining the second highest ranked big ten team. I think this committee more than any other year has shown there is no rhyme or reason to who slots where. Each team is working against its own criteria.
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Your first bullet is the only one that matters and your last 6 bullets are completely meaningless to everyone associated with deciding the bowl matchups. The reality is that the bowls and ESPN decide who they want in their matchups and the final CFP rankings are “magically” produced to justify the selected teams (assuming there is no more then a 2 loss differential between teams). I am quite confident that the Big10, Rose, and ESPN would love to see Michigan in the Rose this year, so we will have a tough time overcoming that sentiment even if we beat them this weekend.
Penn State isn't jumping from NR to the teens after beating Michigan, I can see us being 20-22 if we win. NY6 just isn't going to happen this year, the 3 B1G losses and too many teams ahead of us.
Agree. I was thinking if we win out we have a great shot at the Rose Bowl but thinking about it more that Illinois loss did us in. I don't think h to h wins means as much as I thought. Just look at scUM now ahead of Sparty. It is really based on who they subjectively think is the better team.
Let's play this out because I believe the CFP committee is already setting it up for a scUM Rose Bowl berth. IF we beat scUM this weekend it will be really close and not a terrible loss by scUM on the road to a good team. They are 6th now and we are unranked. After a loss they probably go to 12-15 maybe and we jump to say 21. They will play O$U tough and probably not drop much in a "good" loss to them. Meanwhile we beat a 15th or ranked Sparty team that day (assumes they lost to O$U). Even with that scenario I don't see us jumping scUM in the rankings. I definitely can see the Rose Bowl taking scUM. Will have huge ratings, traditional B2 power. Yada yada yada.
Agreed. The potential fly in that ointment is Iowa and they conveniently have them as the second lowest ranked 2 loss p5 team ahead of Pitt, but behind 2 3 loss big ten teams and 15+ spots back from the other 2 loss big ten teams.
This whole "ESPN and Bowls pick the teams" gets rolled out ever year by folks on this board (and presumably will be on the new board) and yes for the non-NY6, that's true but for that's just not the way it's done anymore for the NY6.
I live in Pasadena--I know some of the Rose Bowl people. You'd be surprised how little say they have. The tickets always sell out, the tv rights are already sold, the people come regardless. Would ESPN like high ratings?--sure but they also have already sold the ad spots. Maybe the B10 would want Michigan since they haven't played since the 2006 season but $$ is going to be there for relevant parties regardless of who it is.
In my experience of living here since 2010, the only impact of the opponent has been in the resell market. I get anywhere between 2 to 6 Rose Bowl tickets a year and they always sell though some years are tougher (Stanford v Wisconsin when it was Wisc 3rd year in a row). The playoff game in 2015 and 2018 were a little tougher because some fans probably held back due to the potential champ game.
You are right--my first bullet is all that matters but it is or isn't justified by the subsequent bullets which one would hope the CFP would use to determine order of ranking. However, given that we aren't even ranked this week, I find it hard we would jump Iowa. If we beat Mich, we probably jump to around where Purdue debuted (#19). It would also be safe to assume they would keep Iowa ahead (h2h and one less loss). If Mich loses to us and OSU, they will drop below us. If MSU does the same, they will drop lower than us. The key is jumping Iowa--well, the key is winning out then it's jumping Iowa.
I will agree with you that based on Mich being ahead of MSU in the latest rankings, they are laying the ground work for a 10-2 Mich (loss to MSU/OSU) to stay ahead of a 10-2 MSU (loss to Purdue/OSU). But again, if both Mich teams lose to us and OSU, Iowa becomes the favorite assuming they finish 10-2.
Well, I guess I don't have to worry about our ranking now and hence, am not "done". Looks like I'm, stuck watching the f**king Rutgers game on Saturday.
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