Took a quick look at the roster in an effort to try and understand how PSU can come close to giving the full 25 scholarships in the classes of 2015 and 2016. Here is a possible scenario and I would be interested to hear any feedback and what components I am missing.
I start with the premise that Coach Franklin is not going to sit around for a few years waiting for the roster to thin out before he can stockpile talent and depth. Evidence of this is the fact that we brought in 25 recruits both last year the previous year. In that prior year, class of 2014, CJF was hired in January and brought in 9 recruits who committed after he was hired. It seems clear we will bring in another 25 this year or very close to 25. Based on this pattern I think it is safe to say we will continue to bring in 20+ recruits each year for at least the next few years. How do we do that since at some point the numbers will not add up to 85?
First, I think 5th year players will be few and far between and will be confined to those who are already established, very good players. For example, I can see Austin Johnson, Geno Lewis, Andrew Nelson, Nyeem Wartman and players of that calibre being welcomed back for a 5th year when the time comes. But otherwise, even if a kid started as a 4th year guy, I suspect Franklin's thought process is there will be a younger player backing him up who is just as good and is ready to start.
If we look at the totakl number of kids who will complete their 4th year (or 5th) in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, I come up with a total of 34 players (22 this season and 12 next season). My numbers may be off by 1 or 2 as this was done rather hastily. Now, let's say the staff plans to sign 25 kids this year and 22 next year; that is 47 new players entering over the next two classes and 34 graduating. That puts us 13 over the 85 limit. But IIRC we will only be at 82 this year, so we will actually be 10 over the limit. So that would mean that between next season and 2017 season 10 kids will transfer out. I would estimate that in the Paterno and O'Brien eras we would average losing around 3 per year. So that average will increase to around 5. I expect that to happen for a few years as the staff gets the roster to where they want it in terms of talent and depth.
I also believe the number of transfers will naturally be higher as Franklin is bringing in more highly regarded players. Those kids, IMHO, are less likely to be okay with spending 4 years waiting for their turn. For example, in 2016 at RB we will have Scott, Thomas, Allen, Robinson, Barkley and Sanders. I would be shocked if all 6 of those guys are on the roster next year. One could make the same argument about our DB's and possibly even WR's.
I asusme there are also ways to be creative with early enrollees and greyshirts.
Could be way off on these thoughts but when I see some mention that next year we could have around 10 scholarships to give, there is no way I can believe that is what CJF has planned.
I start with the premise that Coach Franklin is not going to sit around for a few years waiting for the roster to thin out before he can stockpile talent and depth. Evidence of this is the fact that we brought in 25 recruits both last year the previous year. In that prior year, class of 2014, CJF was hired in January and brought in 9 recruits who committed after he was hired. It seems clear we will bring in another 25 this year or very close to 25. Based on this pattern I think it is safe to say we will continue to bring in 20+ recruits each year for at least the next few years. How do we do that since at some point the numbers will not add up to 85?
First, I think 5th year players will be few and far between and will be confined to those who are already established, very good players. For example, I can see Austin Johnson, Geno Lewis, Andrew Nelson, Nyeem Wartman and players of that calibre being welcomed back for a 5th year when the time comes. But otherwise, even if a kid started as a 4th year guy, I suspect Franklin's thought process is there will be a younger player backing him up who is just as good and is ready to start.
If we look at the totakl number of kids who will complete their 4th year (or 5th) in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, I come up with a total of 34 players (22 this season and 12 next season). My numbers may be off by 1 or 2 as this was done rather hastily. Now, let's say the staff plans to sign 25 kids this year and 22 next year; that is 47 new players entering over the next two classes and 34 graduating. That puts us 13 over the 85 limit. But IIRC we will only be at 82 this year, so we will actually be 10 over the limit. So that would mean that between next season and 2017 season 10 kids will transfer out. I would estimate that in the Paterno and O'Brien eras we would average losing around 3 per year. So that average will increase to around 5. I expect that to happen for a few years as the staff gets the roster to where they want it in terms of talent and depth.
I also believe the number of transfers will naturally be higher as Franklin is bringing in more highly regarded players. Those kids, IMHO, are less likely to be okay with spending 4 years waiting for their turn. For example, in 2016 at RB we will have Scott, Thomas, Allen, Robinson, Barkley and Sanders. I would be shocked if all 6 of those guys are on the roster next year. One could make the same argument about our DB's and possibly even WR's.
I asusme there are also ways to be creative with early enrollees and greyshirts.
Could be way off on these thoughts but when I see some mention that next year we could have around 10 scholarships to give, there is no way I can believe that is what CJF has planned.
