This is a classic example of the disparity and ultimately unfairness of the current system with the conference set up. If PSU played Clemson's schedule we would be in the exact same position if not still undefeated. Clemson is rewarded for their lousy schedule. As much as I despise scUM there is no way if they play O$U tough that they are a worse team than Clemson. So what if you don't win your conference championship. Not all confetences are created equal. They use these conf championship games like some crutch on their little formula. My God how far is a team going to jump up just because they win a lame conference's championship? Such a horrid, archaic imbecile system. The 12 team playoff is needed for this reason and just get rid of conference championship games and make that the first playoff round.
SI still has us in NY6
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
If there were 4 power 5 conferences and each champ was in then I'd be on board. But there isn't and some conference championships matter and at least 1 or 2 don't so....
The lowest won’t play ole miss unless it’s us. Citrus isn’t going to have an sec vs sec matchup.
I agree with you about the playoff.
About the ACC, at the risk of speaking heresy here, it's not clear to me that the B1G is a better league this year top-to-bottom. Again: top-to-bottom.
At the top, yes, though you couldn't really prove it by the schedules. Michigan has beaten three cupcakes out of conference. In fact, the league's only marquis OOC win is Ohio State beating an Irish team that was highly ranked at the beginning of the season but fell well short of expectations later.
Clemson is the ACC's counterpart to Ohio State and Michigan...and they're highly ranked now but got walloped by Notre Dame after the Irish finally found their footing under the new coach.
When you get below the "top," however, you could make a case that the ACC is at least as good as the B1G this year and, if judged strictly by out-of-conference results, actually better.
Syracuse beat Purdue, Florida State beat LSU, Pitt took Tennessee to overtime. There are also wins by a number of ACC teams over various non-cupcake P-5 opponents.
In the B1G, the best non-conference win is ours versus Auburn at their place. But then down the line, you see losses to Washington, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Syracuse, Washington State, and Oklahoma.
Granted, there is no scientific way to make these comparisons, but my point is that top-to-bottom, I don't think the record supports an argument for B1G superiority over the ACC this year.
It will be interesting to see how Clemson and Florida State do against their traditional SEC rivals this week.
Not much different than any other conference - USC - beat UCLA, TCU - beat Kansas State and Texas.
At least Georgia has wins over Oregon and Tennessee.
When it alls plays out and is all said and done:
CFP 1: Georgia vs Clemson
CFP 2: Michigan vs TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Orange: North Carolina vs Tennessee
Sugar: Kansas State vs Alabama
Cotton: Cincinnati vs PENN STATE
Citrus: LSU vs B1G West Winner
CFP 1: Georgia vs Clemson
CFP 2: Michigan vs TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs USC
Orange: North Carolina vs Tennessee
Sugar: Kansas State vs Alabama
Cotton: Cincinnati vs PENN STATE
Citrus: LSU vs B1G West Winner
I Say UGA Vs Clemson and OSU VS USC in the final 4 TCU get screwed again but I could be wrong.
How many one loss power 5 champs have been supplanted by a 1 loss non-champion since the 4 team invitational began?
You need that info to answer where the loser of OSU - UM will be.
If TCU/USC/Clemson all win out… the battle for the 4th spot will be between USC and Clemson. One loss OSU or Mich needs TCU to lose and one of the other two to lose as well. The loser Sat with one loss will overcome a 2 loss Power 5 Champion. We know how that scenario plays out….even when a H2H is criteria.
If TCU wins out, they're likely in. The committee telegraphs its thinking with the weekly rankings. #9 Clemson has too much ground to cover to overtake an unbeaten TCU.
I don't see Michigan beating Ohio State at the Shoe...especially with Corum apparently out. Therefore, Michigan will likely drop out of the committee's top 4 and go to the Rose Bowl.
USC's fate rides on the big game with Notre Dame Saturday. If they don't beat the Irish -- it's far from a sure thing -- they will disappear from the playoff conversation.
Playoffs aside, of most interest to us is how far Tennessee drops. We need it to be all the way to #11 because if that happens, we're likely going to an NY6 bowl.
They have another week to worry about Tennessee truth be told. They can rank them however they feel this week based on the loss (which is bad), but wait until they see a Milton-led UT play Vandy before deciding how they ultimately finish.
Agreed but if they're ranked ahead of us this week, then all they need to do is beat Vandy to lock up an NY6 bid that might otherwise go to us. Therefore, our chance comes this week after their big loss to South Carolina. They will drop. The question is how far.
Granted, if they lose to Vandy on Saturday, then it doesn't matter. But they're 14-point favorites for a reason.
They have the ability to beat Vandy without doing it near as impressive as they likely would have with Hooker at the helm.
Another 30+ pt victory over Sparty while Milton is less impressive can shift the second to last rankings.
Although I do agree 100%, this is the opportune time to jump them and stay ahead with a win.
yep. Vandy is a five-win team (with back-to-back wins over K and FL). We play MSU which is also a five-win team with their best wins over Wisconsin and Illinois. If TENN struggles and wins, and we beat Sparty convincingly, that might help as well. But we'll need help if TENN is ranked higher than us and all of the crappy polls right now seem to indicate that will be the case.
As long as TCU wins out they're in. There is ZERO chance an undefeated, major conference champion gets jumped by any one loss team. ZERO.
That being said, I think it goes:
CFP UGA vs USC and OSU vs TCU
NY6 wise PSU gets a spot in the Cotton (with 3 loss LSU left out of the NY6 pool of teams)
That being said, I think it goes:
CFP UGA vs USC and OSU vs TCU
NY6 wise PSU gets a spot in the Cotton (with 3 loss LSU left out of the NY6 pool of teams)
We'll see how Tennessee handles the disappointment of their playoff dreams imploding.
Everyone on this board has seen first hand how that type of loss can lead to a terrible performance the following weekend against an overmatched opponent.
LSU could go and get blown out by 30 points in the SECCG and drop.
TCU could lose to Iowa State (they're 4-7 but outside of the OU game they've lost their other games by 7, 3, 1, 3, 6 and 4 points).
USC could beat ND and then lose the Pac 12 title game and take the Cotton bowl spot.
Michigan could beat OSU by one and the BIG gets two.
Too many moving pieces to predict how an illogical and 100% subjective final ranking are going to play out.
I'm not going to lose much sleep if someone steals a Cotton Bowl slot opposite Tulane or Cincinnati out from under us.
Best case scenario is probably a toss up between the BIG getting two and sending us to the rose bowl or whatever outcomes lead to finishing ahead of 2 of the 3 SEC teams to face Clemson in the Orange.
After that I'm not sure a scenario where we face Tulane/Cinci is better than the Citrus against Ole Miss or lowest ranked of Tennessee/LSU/Alabama
it is an interesting scenario. Had PSU beaten either tOSU or UM, we could be in the hunt for a birth in the championship series. Both teams are in the top four. But losing to both not only do we NOT make the series, we probably won't make a NY6 either.
Personally think the Orange with Clemson is the right call. Cotton worse case to be fair. More than a few teams above us that could/should be ranked below us.
Not sure ESPN will be a huge supporter of that matchup. SEC, SEC, SEC if you please is what they want.
Not sure ESPN will be a huge supporter of that matchup. SEC, SEC, SEC if you please is what they want.
If PSU would had held on and beat OSU they would be number 4 tonight in the playoff rankings, would have ben UGA,UM,TCU,PSU then OSU USC etc etc.
yes...and a tOSU win over UM puts us in the B1G championship game where, if we win, we are assured a spot in the payoff.
Right now we are 11th for 12 spots….one of which goes to a G5 school below us. So we are 11th of 11. Who is going instead of us right now?
Then, after LSU loses to Georgia….they are below us. Any losses ahead of us puts us up the hill. We win Sat and I don’t know what scenario has us NOT in a NY6.
Not necessarily true in that scenario. If we had beaten OSU and OSU beats UM we would have been in a 3 way tie. Going down the tie breaker list we'd get to the 6th tiebreak where the representative is decided by the cumulative conference winning % of the cross divisional opponents.
Michigan played Iowa (5-3), Nebraska(2-6), Illinois(4-4). (11 wins)
OSU played Wiscy(4-4), Iowa(5-3), NW(1-7). (10 wins)
We played Purdue(5-3), NW(1-7), Minn (4-4). (10 wins)
As it currently stands, Michigan's opponents are 1 game better than ours or OSU's so they would go.
Looking at this weekend's games with the relevant west teams.
Iowa plays Nebraska
Wiscy plays Minnesota
Purdue Plays Indiana
Illinois plays NW
I'm not going to go through all of the scenarios but based on the matchups we'd likely need all 3 of our opponents to pull off wins since Michigan picks up a win regardless of the Iowa Nebraska game. The only way (that I can see) we'd advance with 2 out of 3 would be for Minnesota and NW to win and then it would depend on the outcome of the Nebraska Iowa game.
Iowa winning leaves Michigan, OSU and us all tied and it would go to a random draw.
Nebraska winning leaves us tied with Michigan and ahead of OSU so we'd lose on the H2H.
This is why Purdue beating Maryland would have been good for us earlier this year. We'd be two games back if they hadn't with no real path to winning a 3 way tie.
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right now nobody.....although if USC or Clemson or TCU get in then they will have an extra team from their conference in the NY6 no matter what their record is.
The committee has been inconsistent with how they handle CCG losers so there are plenty of scenarios keep us out.
LSU winning the CCG and UT staying in front of us after this weekend
If LSU loses a close game to UGA and the committee doesn't drop them below us and UT stays in front of us after this weekend we are out baring the big ten getting two.
If USC beats ND but drops they PAC12 CG to Oregon they likely finish ahead of us. That would mean we'd need to finish ahead of 2 of the 3 SEC schools not named UGA.
TCU dropping the big 12 champ game hurts us unless it puts a second big ten team into the dance.
If Palm is right it's going to be nearly impossible for us to get into a NY6 game without some upsets
www.cbssports.com
Plus his summary of Penn State is exactly what the sane people have been saying repeatedly
The hole in Penn State's resume is the lack of quality wins. Its season-opening victory at Purdue still ranks the best among them ,and you will not find the Boilermakers on this list
College Football Playoff Rankings prediction: USC moves to No. 5, Clemson jumps Alabama before Rivalry Week
Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the fourth CFP Rankings of the 2022 season will look when unveiled Tuesday night
www.cbssports.com
Plus his summary of Penn State is exactly what the sane people have been saying repeatedly
The hole in Penn State's resume is the lack of quality wins. Its season-opening victory at Purdue still ranks the best among them ,and you will not find the Boilermakers on this list
I don't know why you're assuming LSU falls behind us
You're also missing the fact the Big XII gets two teams if TCU wins out so there goes one spot which is what pushes us out.
This is pretty much the case if Clemson gets in, Carolina takes a spot. If USC gets in, Oregon takes its spot. If TC gets in Kansas State takes a spot.
The conference tie ins and g5 auto are so fing stupid. You want to watch that or this:
CFP: Georgia vs USC
CFP: Ohio State VS Clemson
Rose: Michigan vs Alabama
Orange: Tennessee vs Oregon
Sugar: LSU vs Washington
Cotton: Penn State vs TCU
Correct--the fact the Pac XII, Big XII or ACC could get two teams if one is in the playoff is the biggest issue. Penn State benefits the most if two Big Ten or two SEC teams make the playoffs. If not, going to need a big time upset--Clemson TCU and USC losing this weekend would be ideal lol
I think the most likely could be A & M over LSU. Stay with me for a second.....LSU is looking towards the Title Game. Maybe possible for a letdown? A & M still has really good players. remember they took Alabama to the wire where a horrible call killed them. Really pulling for A & M and living down here they are like Pitt is to me as well.
Second is USC to lose to Notre Dame and then win the PAC 12.
Third: we need TCU to run the table and get in.
Im still not sure if our best path to NY6 isn't the Rose Bowl. If the OSU/Mich game is close and a good game, would they dare run it back in the playoffs?
Then it would be:
CFP: Georgia vs Michigan
CFP: OSU vs TCU
Rose: Penn State VS USC
Orange: Clemson vs Alabama
Sugar: LSU vs Kansas State
Cotton: Tenn v G5
Either way we do need some kind of small things to happen.
Yes you have a point and I don't disagree that top to bottom the B10 and ACC could be equal. I have not analyzed each team but the B10 does not have much after O$U, Mich and us.
My frustration is we play in the most difficult division in football. My God, in our own division, not conference but division are the #2 and 3 teams in the country and if it wasn't for the lame a$$ selection system in place both those teams would be in the playoff. Basically, Clemson is us but and a HUGE BUT they never have to deal with Mich or O$U. So how would we be looking this year if say we replaced Mich and O$U on our schedule with a road game vs ND and a home game vs UNC or FSU? We would be at worst 11-1 with a strong possibility of being 12-0. Just a joke Clemson gets this benefit every year.
Here is a thought. For one or two ooc games each season they should do conference challenges like they do in hoops. So say the 2nd week of the season each year all the B10 teams play a counterpart from the ACC. This way you could force Clemson to play a tough game. They would not have to play O$U or Mich every year but two out of 3 and the other we play them.
I do agree the Rose Bowl is the best path
A&M could beat LSU (I'm still not convinced LSU is a great yet alone elite team) but I feel like they've given up to be honest. They struggle for half the game against UMass. Notre Dame beating USC would be huge for us. Would also probably help if Michigan beat Ohio State because of Michigan's pathetic non-conference slate.
Yep, there should be a lot more of them. Just like B-Ball does it. Look at Sparty, KY and Gonzaga, they have all played each other already. Duke has played Kansas already. On and on.
Setting up 2 SEC teams. No more, no less. What did LSU do Saturday to jump USC? Do they swap back if USC beats ND?
Tennessee over us is fine.
If D-1 college football were like any other sport, be it high school, college or pro, PSU would be in the playoffs and getting ready for a first round game most likely against either OSU or Michigan, but that would make too much sense.
