So the www is bombarding us with invest in "mary j"!
- Thread starter emertmakeshiteup
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Good for you! The thing for me to consider and research, if I were to go that route, is am I already to late to get into the game, as this has been being pushed for weeks now?
I am doing that very thing right now and my current favorite is Sunshine #4.
.........oh wait you meant something else, never mind.
NO NO NO. This is a bubble in so many ways. And ironically I think a lot of the suckers investing are people who haven't actually smoked enough pot to understand the product.
Cannabis is very easy to grow -- MUCH easier to grow and cure than tobacco. But with tobacco, a cigar afficionado might consume upwards of half an ounce of tobacco in an evening, or at least in a weekend. With cannabis, even a fairly enthusiastic user might use a half ounce of flower buds in a YEAR. Modern marijuana is a very powerful drug; a tiny amount goes a long way.
When Oregon legalized, they want from severe shortages to ridiculous oversupply and price crashes in like 9 months. California by itself is probably growing more cannabis right now than the entire country is able to consume. It's just piling up in warehouses. Prices are crashing. Growers in Northern California who have been at it for 40 years are quitting the business because they can't make a living any more.
And it's just the start -- new large scale growing operations are starting in Canada and all over the country.
This industry is going to grow and grow and then the bubble will pop and 90% of investors, maybe 99%, will lose everything.
It's like the Yukon gold rush -- in the end the only real durable business might be the people who service and supply the industry -- the people who made pickaxes and tin pans and backpacks for the prospectors.
The folks who make grow lights and build warehouses and cannabis refining equipment and vape pens -- they'll make money. But even they will probably experience a roller coaster ride.
Cannabis is very easy to grow -- MUCH easier to grow and cure than tobacco. But with tobacco, a cigar afficionado might consume upwards of half an ounce of tobacco in an evening, or at least in a weekend. With cannabis, even a fairly enthusiastic user might use a half ounce of flower buds in a YEAR. Modern marijuana is a very powerful drug; a tiny amount goes a long way.
When Oregon legalized, they want from severe shortages to ridiculous oversupply and price crashes in like 9 months. California by itself is probably growing more cannabis right now than the entire country is able to consume. It's just piling up in warehouses. Prices are crashing. Growers in Northern California who have been at it for 40 years are quitting the business because they can't make a living any more.
And it's just the start -- new large scale growing operations are starting in Canada and all over the country.
This industry is going to grow and grow and then the bubble will pop and 90% of investors, maybe 99%, will lose everything.
It's like the Yukon gold rush -- in the end the only real durable business might be the people who service and supply the industry -- the people who made pickaxes and tin pans and backpacks for the prospectors.
The folks who make grow lights and build warehouses and cannabis refining equipment and vape pens -- they'll make money. But even they will probably experience a roller coaster ride.
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I think you're conservative in your estimate of how much an enthusiast would consume in a YEAR...extremely conservative!
Sorry I can't get past your first paragraph. I can tell you with good authority and experience that this
"With cannabis, even a fairly enthusiastic user might use a half ounce of flower buds in a YEAR. Modern marijuana is a very powerful drug; a tiny amount goes a long way."
Is flat out wrong. Ok the modern mary jane is very powerful is true. but the rest...Yikes
TLRY and CRON are worth looking at.
I think you're right to look at this as a speculative flyer rather than a core holding.
You’re also not factoring in how many more states there are that still haven’t legalized it yet, but will at some point. Case in point is NJ.
Invest in RET's that have the authority to build dispensaries.Its not the product as much as it is the marketing/accounting/compliance.Farming is a brutal business and you are not going to see their land increase like vineyards in Napa.
More like 15-30 days....lol
Reasonable people can differ. But an ounce is a lot of pot these days. And it's super easy to grow. Just one plant professionally tended can yield close to a pound of flowers, and the plants are ready for harvest in like 12 weeks. And a decent sized grow factory can handle 10,000 plants at a time.So do the math....One plant can grow 640,000 ounces a year, enough for a medium sized city where everybody smokes pot every day.
Pot is an agricultural commodity and just about every agricultural commodity in the world has oversupply problems. It's not the legal uncertainties, it's going to be legal in most states. It's the fact that you are investing in basically tulip bulbs that people are counting on being able to sell for $100 a bulb. But what if the wholesale price ends up at $5 a bulb, or 50 cents...
And medical marijuana -- it's gonna be huge, but big pharma is already working on synthesizing the compounds -- they may not even NEED pot plants to make THC or CDB for medicine.
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I made a quick 10k trading CGC and ACB still hold some now for long-term. Quite a few more states will figure out that it is better to be legalized and taxed vs feeding organized crime. In Colorado you know the potency, and purity i.e. no pesticides etc used of all the edibles and drinkables as well as vape oils clarity, purity, and potency. Black market sales are dropping in States where legalized since many folks are more comfortable with edibles and drinks for the purity and labeled potency. Stores are selling a lot more edibles, drinkables and vape cartridges since they are discrete, no smells or odors, and doses are typical 10 mg for 1 dose. If it was legalized nationally the black market would crumble since all they sell is flower. I don’t expect too many southern states to legalize though because they still are in the reefer madness mode and think the médical benefits of CBD are a hoax. Big pharma is spending big money to keep it schedule 1. I can see a few more progressive states legalizing. I see men and women of all ages from Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Missouri that fréquent my local store and that is lost tax revenue for those states. Any of my friends or relatives that come want to visit a retail store even if they don’t use it or they want to buy some of the great CBD pain relief creams like Apothecanna. Most of them are in their 70’s. Long term the global market between medical and recreational will be huge.
Still, more of a dabbler than an enthusiast...I think you're out of your element, brah!
Well its not as easy to grow as you make it sound. Some strains are easier than others and while your 10-12 weeks harvest rule is pretty accurate the yield is going to depend on a lot of variables the #1 being light.
To put that in perspective, a skilled grower can use a 400 watts HPS grow light to produce 400 grams of pot. That works out to about 14 oz. Want more? Get more light. A grow room with 1200 watts can lead to a yield of 42 oz.
Get the right light but don’t forget you’ll also need the right nutrients, the right equipment, good air quality, a good room for the plants to grow in, and plenty of time for the attention you’ll need to give it if you want the highest possible yield. Making sure your plants have enough space is key.
Maybe you and others should overlook Boyer’consumption estimate and concentrate on the rest of his argument.
I have and did but some of the "stats" are just flat out wrong or are at the optimum level at best.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
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Several very good points. But your estimation of an “enthusiast’s” use seems low. That is, unless the enthusiast is assuaging his mother’s concern for his annual consumption.
Again, you make some very good points otherwise.
The bolded just isn't true. The non flower stuff is being purchased legally and being moved to black market states and sold for quite a profit. I do agree that it would severely damage the black market though.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
Guest
Well, the bolded section began with the proposition that it was LEGALIZED NATIONALLY. So you may be right that flower isn’t all they may sell, but the black market states would no longer exist.
There will always be a black or gray market just like there will always be corner convenience stores despite superstores and the web.
You know what is hard to grow? An orchid. Yet, at costco they have pallets of them available for 14.95 each.
The big question on cannabis is whether or not the government of each state protects their buddies who they license.
Or, if it goes free market. If it goes free market an ounce should cost about 50 cents to grow. About the price of a very fancy tomato.
LdN
I understood the proposition, which is why I stated I agreed with him that it would severely damage the black market if it were legal. My point was that the black market doesn't only sell flowers. That's not why it would crumble, which is what he stated, and I pointed out that it wasn't true. Not sure where you're disagreeing with me because it seems we're basically saying the same thing.
The black market sells plenty of non flower products. There are commercially and non commercially made pen tops being sold at much higher than dispensary prices here in SC. Edibles too, around $50 for a 400mg bag for the same ones you buy in a dispensary. No idea how much the homemade ones go for. Most purveyors here are selling more pen tops than anything else for several obvious reasons.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
Guest
Fair enough. But his point was an effect we both agree with and you disagreed only with the cause without distinction. I probably read your post with the annoyance that several have disagreed with this guy (admittedly a bit loose with the support for his conclusions) when many of his points were valid. Time for me to get another coffee.
Freakonomics podcast with Mark Cuban on January 26 had him speaking about esports and their arenas as being a worthwhile investment opportunity, After the podcast I needed to look up and learn about esports. Guess i never thought of video games as a spectator sport.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
Guest
You clearly don’t have a son obsessed with watching Ronald play Fortnite on YouTube....
Cannabis is a new industry in the sense that it is starting to become legal in some states now and will probably end up being legal in some form at the Federal level and in most states. Other countries are heading the same way. Canada is already there. Major paradigm shifts like this always present investment opportunities but are also very risky.
I have been a private investor since the late 70s and have been through these kind of shifts before and when you are investing in a new emerging industry/technology you really need to follow your positions daily to see the news, price swings, technical charts, volumes, etc. You want liquidity so you can pull the trigger and dump the entire position if sentiment changes. What is hot one week can go dead cold the next. This is not day trading, it is simply being conscientious about your money.
I have looked at dozens of cannabis companies starting last Fall when they were hit hard. For the vast majority of these companies there is no way to know who survives, though consolidation in the industry, so that a few can grow quickly, will bail out some of these positions.
The biggest of the bunch that have alliances and capital from a major company, like a Canopy (cgc), will survive and prosper. There are a few others and some smaller ones that are well positioned but you never know.
The Dot.com boom showed us that investing on promise eventually evaporates and the question becomes where is the free cash flow. But it did usher in some great investments like Amazon. Cannabis industries will have some too eventually.
I have been a private investor since the late 70s and have been through these kind of shifts before and when you are investing in a new emerging industry/technology you really need to follow your positions daily to see the news, price swings, technical charts, volumes, etc. You want liquidity so you can pull the trigger and dump the entire position if sentiment changes. What is hot one week can go dead cold the next. This is not day trading, it is simply being conscientious about your money.
I have looked at dozens of cannabis companies starting last Fall when they were hit hard. For the vast majority of these companies there is no way to know who survives, though consolidation in the industry, so that a few can grow quickly, will bail out some of these positions.
The biggest of the bunch that have alliances and capital from a major company, like a Canopy (cgc), will survive and prosper. There are a few others and some smaller ones that are well positioned but you never know.
The Dot.com boom showed us that investing on promise eventually evaporates and the question becomes where is the free cash flow. But it did usher in some great investments like Amazon. Cannabis industries will have some too eventually.
You are forgetting about the fact that not all pot is taken in the dried flower form. In fact, that is probably the least way it is used these days. Lastly the HUGE increase in pot use now is specifically because of big pharma and their made up drugs. Good luck hitching to that wagon. No person is going to take fake pot over real pot. Growers have mastered these plants and you can get all the benefits without the "high" if you so choose.
One point of hesitation here, there continue to be more studies on marijuana. Recent testing from UK shows a link between pyschosis and MJ consumption, like three times more likely to suffer a psychotic episode...There is not enough evidence to show causation at this point.
No, but I do have a grandson. Had to go out and buy a 32 inch TV because the big screens weren't conducive to his video games when he was on an extended visit. I'm sure the top players have great hand eye coordination. Just have trouble calling it a sport.
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anon_1eeb2b426hv3y
Guest
You’re right. Not a sport. More like competitive activity like chess, cards, board games, etc.
Colleges are handing out full rides for gamers. Harrisburg U has one of the top teams in the country. Big gamer show in Atlantic City this week. My grand son stopped learning how to throw left handed and will learn how to be a gamer!
I see Illinois just legalized it.
New York and New Jersey to follow?
C'mon Maryland get with the times...High Times. LOL.
I am out here in Cali with one of my boys and we discussed this. One of his jobs is as a bud tender. He has close friends that are growers and own dispensaries. He said the consumers prefer to still buy from the black market due to the prices. His friends said money has been thrown at these dispensery companies and the ROI is not going to be there. The Mexican, Chinese, and Russian cartel and gangs,
amongst others, are pumpimg the market full of their pot. One idea that his guys do like, is starting high end nurseries that will sell exotic strains in single plant quantities and let people grow good pot at home.
amongst others, are pumpimg the market full of their pot. One idea that his guys do like, is starting high end nurseries that will sell exotic strains in single plant quantities and let people grow good pot at home.
Sooner or later backwards thinking states will get their heads of their asses and realize the missed tax revenue. Down south though that could take decades.
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