There's been plenty of debate over whether Chambers is showing the requisite progress to justify his continuing to be Penn State's head basketball coach. What better way to resolve a debate than with hard statistics (and hopefully no lies or damn lies). I decided to look over some stats for his entire tenure during my lunch hour. This will probably be kind of long, but hopefully not too difficult to read:
First, and most simply, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):
'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 14-12 (6-7)
We have a minimum of 6 B1G games remaining. Even a 2-4 record in those games would result in Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. 1-5 would tie the best B1G record yet. They've been playing about even in the B1G, so if we assume a 2-3 regular season finish and 1-1 in the tourney, they'll end at 17-16 (9-11). Good enough for best B1G finish by 2 games. Now, it's obviously easier to put up a better record if you're playing an easier schedule. So let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:
'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 30
It was unfortunate in '12-13 that their least talented roster coincided with their toughest schedule. Regardless, what you can see here is that this year's record is not the product of a weak schedule. It's in fact the toughest schedule they've played since '12-13.
Of course, wins and losses don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at a little deeper and check the point per game differentials:
'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: +1.0
Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived. Now, I could see where some would argue that the number is skewed because B1G games are tougher and they haven't finished that slate of games yet. That's a fair point, but let's look at just the differential in B1G games during the span:
'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -2.4
Again, the differential this season is the best Chambers has had yet. And that's despite losses by 25 and 27. The remaining losses were 10, 3, 3, 8 (in 3OT), 2, 6. Competitive in every game but two. If you wanted to play with the numbers, eliminating the outliers, being the worst two losses and best two wins, leaves you with only a -0.6 ppg differential in the remaining nine B1G games.
Combining the above a bit, there's a stat called the SRS, or Simple Rating System. It weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat to rank teams. Here is PSU's SRS ranking during this span:
'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 68
Getting repetitive, but this season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure.
Just for fun, how about records against top 25 teams:
'11-12: 1-10
'12-13: 1-8
'13-14: 2-4
'14-15: 0-6
'15-16: 2-5
'16-17: 2-4
To date, tied with their best record against top 25 teams during this time frame.
Not to bury the lede, but let's look at what makes the current team being perhaps Chambers' best yet so incredible. Here is the average years experience for the top 6 players by minutes per game during this span (note, SR = 4, JR = 3, SO = 2, FR = 1):
'11-12: 2.33
'12-13: 2.5
'13-14: 2.83
'14-15: 3.0
'15-16: 2.8
'16-17: 1.83
And there it is. This team, compared with the previous 5 seasons, is on pace to win the most B1G games, have its best point differential overall and in B1G games, and earn its highest SRS ranking. And that is despite being the youngest team Chambers has fielded by a significant margin, and despite their toughest schedule since '12-13.
How is that possible? Recruiting. Here is the composite ranking of recruiting classes over this span:
'12: 71
'13: 63
'14: 91
'15: 43
'16: 26
Not that anyone is learning anything new, but the combination of the last two classes is likely Penn State's best 2 year recruiting effort ever.
Many have said Chambers has to prove he can translate that recruiting into success onto the court. Which is obviously fair. But the numbers above don't lie. The youngest team Chambers has ever fielded by a wide margin is achieving better results than any team before it. If that's not enough to prove that this program is quickly moving the right direction, that big things are immediately on the horizon, and that Chambers is fully capable of translating recruiting success onto the court, then you just don't want to believe it.
First, and most simply, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):
'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 14-12 (6-7)
We have a minimum of 6 B1G games remaining. Even a 2-4 record in those games would result in Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. 1-5 would tie the best B1G record yet. They've been playing about even in the B1G, so if we assume a 2-3 regular season finish and 1-1 in the tourney, they'll end at 17-16 (9-11). Good enough for best B1G finish by 2 games. Now, it's obviously easier to put up a better record if you're playing an easier schedule. So let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:
'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 30
It was unfortunate in '12-13 that their least talented roster coincided with their toughest schedule. Regardless, what you can see here is that this year's record is not the product of a weak schedule. It's in fact the toughest schedule they've played since '12-13.
Of course, wins and losses don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at a little deeper and check the point per game differentials:
'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: +1.0
Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived. Now, I could see where some would argue that the number is skewed because B1G games are tougher and they haven't finished that slate of games yet. That's a fair point, but let's look at just the differential in B1G games during the span:
'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -2.4
Again, the differential this season is the best Chambers has had yet. And that's despite losses by 25 and 27. The remaining losses were 10, 3, 3, 8 (in 3OT), 2, 6. Competitive in every game but two. If you wanted to play with the numbers, eliminating the outliers, being the worst two losses and best two wins, leaves you with only a -0.6 ppg differential in the remaining nine B1G games.
Combining the above a bit, there's a stat called the SRS, or Simple Rating System. It weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat to rank teams. Here is PSU's SRS ranking during this span:
'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 68
Getting repetitive, but this season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure.
Just for fun, how about records against top 25 teams:
'11-12: 1-10
'12-13: 1-8
'13-14: 2-4
'14-15: 0-6
'15-16: 2-5
'16-17: 2-4
To date, tied with their best record against top 25 teams during this time frame.
Not to bury the lede, but let's look at what makes the current team being perhaps Chambers' best yet so incredible. Here is the average years experience for the top 6 players by minutes per game during this span (note, SR = 4, JR = 3, SO = 2, FR = 1):
'11-12: 2.33
'12-13: 2.5
'13-14: 2.83
'14-15: 3.0
'15-16: 2.8
'16-17: 1.83
And there it is. This team, compared with the previous 5 seasons, is on pace to win the most B1G games, have its best point differential overall and in B1G games, and earn its highest SRS ranking. And that is despite being the youngest team Chambers has fielded by a significant margin, and despite their toughest schedule since '12-13.
How is that possible? Recruiting. Here is the composite ranking of recruiting classes over this span:
'12: 71
'13: 63
'14: 91
'15: 43
'16: 26
Not that anyone is learning anything new, but the combination of the last two classes is likely Penn State's best 2 year recruiting effort ever.
Many have said Chambers has to prove he can translate that recruiting into success onto the court. Which is obviously fair. But the numbers above don't lie. The youngest team Chambers has ever fielded by a wide margin is achieving better results than any team before it. If that's not enough to prove that this program is quickly moving the right direction, that big things are immediately on the horizon, and that Chambers is fully capable of translating recruiting success onto the court, then you just don't want to believe it.
