Are you just getting your insults from Grok or something? This is the weirdest phrasing...
Stock Market Update (Where's Eduardo?)
- Thread starter bdgan
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eng, you seem like a sincere person. I have a serious question. In one of your posts you mentioned something about an administration that controls information (I don't remember your exact words) and nationalistic extremism and militaristic.
Now I know you have a basis for your words but I don't understand your conclusions. Let me explain my thoughts...We know now that the last administration worked at controlling what they believed was "disinformation" in both social and main stream media. This administration, in my viewpoint, puts out too much information. Again IMO, it would be better if they spoke less. I have a hard time seeing how you might think that this admin is controlling the information when they are so open compared to the last.
nationalistic extremism...which country is not nationalistic? If you're speaking of tariffs, aren't all countries, or at least most of them, already using tariffs or other economic means to protect their own jobs and industries? Aren't they nationalistic?
Militarism...again, not sure what you mean. Trump is working to end two wars through negotiation and, as announced today, interjected himself into the India/Pakistan conflict to effect a cease fire. If you're talking about budgets, for all practical purposes the budget is fault (in constant dollars) and the US has to backfill munitions to replace the $$billions of dollars of equipment given to Ukraine.
My post goes back to one I made this morning. It's possible for two people to look at the same thing and come to different conclusions. I'm just interested in your thoughts
I believe in the post you were referencing I was talking about how the US government locked people in their homes and suppressed any discussion during Covid.
Although I didn't reference it specifically.
Someone here said something like Trump today proves that we are OK with authoritarian government.
Those people have a complete blind spot for lockdowns during covid when the government took away basically all of our constitutional rights.
LdN
Well if his policies end up being successful, why would anyone want to get rid of him or his successor? I'm as invested in our success as anyone - I live here. But the guy talked fondly about being a dictator before he was elected, so because we shrugged our shoulders and put him back there, he thinks it's his right. So if he's a disaster, I don't think there's any getting rid of him or his people, we're stuck.
I can see that you and I will never agree on this topic. I don't see those as exclusive. We can have fair trade and lower tariffs and at the same time return jobs to the US. Maybe we're seeing different quantities or products. I don't see us ever returning textiles or clothing stuff like that to the US. But I look at what I have read about the UK agreement and I see us selling more planes to the UK (more jobs) with lower tariffs on the planes and lower tariffs for the UK on aircraft parts and cars. I can only point to the fact that so far, the auto workers unions and steelworkers seem to think that these tariffs will help create more jobs for them.
I still say that the tariffs are simply a means to an end. I don't see tariffs staying so high as apparently you do. Even Trump has said that the tariffs on china are not sustainable. Granted he appears to like some kind of underlying tariff to raise money, and if those remain, I agree there is a likelihood that prices will probably increase.
So anyway, our discussion has been civil, lots of information back and forth and another example of how two people see the same thing and come to different conclusions. I have nothing more to add, unfortunately
The country is headed in that direction, hope my kids & grandkids survive regime transition.
Anyone that doesn't realize this must be listening to state fox news, and Howard Nutlick.
That is my biggest concern, second to my retirement accounts dropped & flushed in the toilet. Set fire to my home & I'll move in with my son & wife. They have 4-empty bedrooms after the kids went on their own.
I'm with you on that. I think we can have fair trade by lowering tariffs and return jobs to the U.S. In fact, I just spelled out several ideas to make it happen without punishing American consumers (i.e. advertising manufacturing and training and more U.S. citizens taking those jobs).
I'm saying the two arguments are mutually exclusive because at its core, one argument says we'll have lower tariffs overall and the other argument says we need high tariffs. You can't have low tariffs and high tariffs at the same time.
I thought we had a test board that certain people on this thread could go to.
You dodged my argument with a silly one-liner.
First, the manufacturing jobs are gone, which is the whole point.
Second, I'm a little on the old side to take whatever crumbs remains.
Third, we're Americans. This is a country...not a consumer market
Fourth, we owe something to one another...and to those who came before us. Our government and those with power and wealth arguably owe the most.
I feel like we're talking in different languages here. You hate Trump. I get it. And every opinion you hold flows from that starting point.
But this is about something a lot bigger than Trump. When the shit hits the fan, which someday it will, your 401K and investment profits aren't going to mean a whole lot.
Granted, until then, you'll live well while sneering at those beneath your station in life. Yet if in the end you don't pay the price, your kids or grandkids...if you have any...will.
Your kids or grandkids in the future for your bank account now. Bad trade.
They absolutely are not gone. Didn’t you see the articles I posted straight from the manufacturing industry begging for American workers due to shortages?? What’s the problem? In the “again” part of MAGA we’re trying to go back to, kids as young as 10 and elderly in their 80s worked the factories.
Get out there! The jobs are open and you think it’s important, so instead of complaining and making excuses, take one of the manufacturing jobs where there’s shortages!
America needs YOU to fill one of the thousands of open manufacturing jobs!
LINK: American brands like Coke and Jim Beam are paying the price abroad for Trump's trade war
Instead of buying products associated with the United States, foreign consumers could shift their spending to local brands. That's already happening in Canada, where shoppers are eschewing US products at grocery stores and other retailers in favor of Canadian-made equivalents.
"The risk for US brands is that consumers' growing antagonism toward the United States resulting from an onslaught of tariffs emanating from Washington will cause them to seek out alternative goods and services provided by local and foreign (non-U.S.) brands," Morning Consult wrote in its April report.
…so, can’t close a trade deficit if foreigners aren’t going to buy our products anymore. Another reason why tariffs are a low-intelligence play that will hurt everyone—especially us.
Instead of buying products associated with the United States, foreign consumers could shift their spending to local brands. That's already happening in Canada, where shoppers are eschewing US products at grocery stores and other retailers in favor of Canadian-made equivalents.
"The risk for US brands is that consumers' growing antagonism toward the United States resulting from an onslaught of tariffs emanating from Washington will cause them to seek out alternative goods and services provided by local and foreign (non-U.S.) brands," Morning Consult wrote in its April report.
…so, can’t close a trade deficit if foreigners aren’t going to buy our products anymore. Another reason why tariffs are a low-intelligence play that will hurt everyone—especially us.
No doubt that there has been and will continue to be some fallout. Another example would be Canadians who are pissed and won't travel to the USA. I don't think anybody is disputing that.
You hate Trump to the point of calling him a dictator who want to overthrow the government which I think is nonsense but instead of arguing about that I'd like to know your thoughts on policies.
- Are you OK with countries like India imposing 8% tariffs while we impose 2.5% tariffs?
- Are you OK with Chinese interests doing business and buying real estate in the USA while U.S. companies face restrictions on doing the same in China?
- How do you feel about the USA being dependent on other countries for critical materials and how that might impact our national security?
- Do you care about the USA being $37 trillion in debt and adding $2 trillion per year to that amount?
- Do you think the middle class should have their marginal tax rate increase by 3%, have their standard deduction cut in half, and have child/dependent credits cut in half?
- Do you think U.S. corporations should pay higher taxes? FWIW they are currently taxed at the OECD average.
Are you familiar with the 7 deadly sins? A lot of people agree that greed belongs on the list but many seem to disagree with envy and sloth being sinful.
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Of course we all want the same outcome. No one in their right mind is going to be like, “You know, I think America should suck and get ripped off.”
The problem is that not only has Trump chosen a path that inflicts maximum pain on Americans, he could very well cause the opposite outcomes he’s pushing for. For example, he’s dead set on forcing interest rates down but his entirely stupid “liberation day” announcement caused the opposite—they shot upwards. He’s also trying to close the trade deficit, but now that he’s pissed off other country’s citizens and caused tariff retaliation, now we’re exporting less too! That doesn’t close the deficit. He has no real understanding of economics, it’s very basic, surface-level stuff that’s mostly emotion-based.
I have one person on ignore. He should be honored. That is almost impossible for me to do. Have had him on ignore for a very long time.
I asked about unfair trade, the debt & deficit, national security, and tax policy. In typical fashion you offered nothing but sharp criticism of Trump but nothing about what you think we should be doing.
I spent a good portion of yesterday providing real, actual solutions. In fact, it has been months now that I’ve been saying what Trump is doing wrong and what we should be doing. Go back through the thread. If you want me to link more about manufacturing openings, I’ll gladly do so, so that you can sign up and actually take part in making America great again instead of just complaining about it. Or at least get involved in the advertising and training of the next generation to fill the shortages we currently have.
You asked your questions thinking I would disagree with things like strong national security, reducing the deficit/debt or fair trade. Why would I do that? We’re on the same team—I’m going to answer those questions the same as you. Where we differ is that you mistakenly think Trump is fixing things, when in reality he’s breaking them and we’re very rapidly losing our place in the world because of it. Remember, Trump’s deficit in his first term dwarfed Biden’s whether or not you include the Covid spending. He’s not the solution you’re looking for—in fact, he’s going to end up damaging things far worse.
Last week I pretty much went to all cash and will be taking a huge long term cap gain hit and what I can get short term at 4.3%. I took a big hit from my highs at the end of the year but am still very happy to close out after the bounce. I'm not an entrenched political guy but these idiotic tariffs personally cost me and every member of my family lot of money. BTW, I hope everyone stocked up on their Amazon stuff, because the 145% is about to kick in as the 4-6 week stock is depleted. Amazon was waiting for post mother's day to raise prices. Prepare for sticker shock and shortages.
YEP, should start happening in a few weeks, but who knows. The tariffs are either set by a spinning tariff wheel or selecting via random bingo balls. By the time of the China trade talks, the tariff may fall to 10%.
Watching the vid below, Donald probably doesn't care about the effect of tariffs on our nation.
interesting vid on crypto coins....of course the issue is being presented to congress, it's all fake news.
Link: US officials say deal struck to cut China trade deficit, details on Monday
Apparently a deal has been struck. Let’s hope it’s better than the UK “deal” that left the bulk of the tariffs in place.
you guys are truly negative. Look at the bright side, toilet paper is manufactured in the US
I didn't see any solutions or opinions except that we can't fill the manufacturing jobs we already have. You completely avoided my questions about how to deal with barriers in India & China, how to cut the deficit, or taxing corporations.
roar, we get chemicals from the UK for pharmaceuticals. I've been searching all my sites looking for what new tariff is on them. Have you seen anything definitive?
I'm not sure why you took a "BIG HIT" vs year end. The S&P 500 closed at 5,882 on 12/31/24 and it closed Friday at 5,680 which is a mere 3.5% decline. I was warning about high valuations long before the tariffs and I still feel that way because the S&P 500 is trading at 27x trailing earning which is very high by historical standards. I think the tariffs set off a decline that was way overdue anyway.
I agree with you if you're worried about the impact of tariffs going forward.
On a personal note I have a lot of unrealized capital gains. I might have sold some if not for the capital gains tax but my situation is different than most. I'll leave a lot of it to my kids and they'll receive a stepped up basis. The way I see it I can take a 25% loss and still come out even vs selling. I might have reduced my equity stake if it was money I needed for my own retirement.
There's no question in my mind that Trump cares about our nation. So did Biden and so does every president. These guys want to be remembered for doing great things. You might disagree with what Trump is doing. I disagree with a number of things myself. But in his mind he thinks it's the right thing.
I don't see any way that Trump will reduce China Tariffs to 10% but I do expect a concession (60%?) while trade talks continue. Trump and Xi are both stubborn. They both have to be able to say they won something. In Trump's case it might be that 145% was necessary to bring China to the negotiating table.
That sounds about right to me. But if we’re going to end up with 10%+ tariffs on every nation, that’s still a gigantic headwind to economic growth. Remember, the stock market dropped 80% after Smoot-Hawley, which was about 19% overall tariffs. If we can get down to around 15%, maybe it’s not quite as bad but I don’t see how the hard data doesn’t start crushing us this fall…
What's your point? You say that a 10% tariff are a gigantic headwind to our economy but....
- How else do you get more manufacturing back into the USA?
- Where else do you get the money to reduce debt/deficit?
- How else do you reduce dependency on a countries that don't like us?
Given that the word "sin" means an offense against God, it would appear that the majority of people believe nothing belongs on the list. After all, we all get our own truth so we all get to decide what is sinful. Only we don't...except in our own minds...
I watched it once and will never watch it again. The ending freaked me out lol
A lot of people criticize the rich and corporations for being greedy. They want more of their money for things like education, healthcare, and welfare. But doesn't that come from a place of envy? And those who live on welfare could be guilty of sloth, right?
What's the median family income worldwide? I recall something like $10,000. By that measure aren't nearly all Americans "rich"? Like you said people decide in their own minds.
It isn't 1930 either.
Why is it OK for the US to pay tariffs to basically everyone? Why isn't it bad for their economy? Because we were paying them and nobody noticed?
Legitimate curious questions here. Be interested to hear your thoughts on it.
It’s because you’re gullible and believed the lie that there were these extreme tariffs out there that “we” were paying. Actually, that’s two lies in one you got suckered into. First, we already had nearly free trade with global average tariffs between 1-3%. Second, the country who imposes tariffs forces their own citizens to pay the increased prices if they want the goods. Get educated.
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