Agree, something like that is where we are headed. Hoping Virginia is in B1G.
Works for me.
The end game for the B1G (and the SEC)?
- Thread starter Katatonic
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I think BC has a good shot in the end. The consolidation to two conferences and a "Super Bowl" has changed my thinking some. Before I saw only big state schools being attractive, and still do. I thought city schools would be squeezed out. But with a two conference configuration being more like a pro minor league, "pro" towns might bring in good dollars as the casual pro market fan might now become interested in "college" football since they can now undestand it better. That COULD body well for Boston College and say Houston.
I’m just hoping we can avoid being in a division with Western Michigan…
If a conference is only comprised of traditional football powers (that haven't fallen way off), over time, some of them would end up like a Mississippi St. or Purdue (somebody has got to lose in such a conference).
Take for instance, OU, which has pretty much dominated the B12 over the past decade.
How many division championships, much less SEC Championships will they win?
If the SEC kicked out schools like Vandy, Mississippi St., Mizzou, Kentucky (which to be fair, has turned into a competitive program), OU may very well finish middle of the pack most years.
Powers are powers because they don't play each other all the time; that's why SEC schools play a patsy before their rivalry game.
Just because it's in a large market doesn't mean it drives that market.
GT is in Atlanta and is at best, the 4th most popular school there.
Plus, Houston wouldn't meet the Academic criteria.
Even a school like FSU may not pass muster despite being in the 50's in USNWR latest rankings, better than a good # of B1G schools.
Plus, the whole point of expanding to 24 was to devalue the remaining P5 conferences so much that the $$ that would have gone to them would now be redirected to the B1G and SEC, while keeping the most important (on a national basis) rivalries intact.
Houston would be on a island by themselves and their AAU value is not anywhere close to that of a typical Pac 12 school.
Doubt that they would ever leave and want to keep a certain geographic integrity between the B1G and SEC.
Not only would this continue, if not foster more regional rivalries (say, Penn State against UNC or UVa), would just give that much more juice to the title game when the B1G and SEC champs collide.
A slightly more likely prospect would be UT - as they haven't joined the SEC yet.
But they wouldn't leave w/o OU, and even if the B1G presidents and chancellors were amenable to accepting the Sooners, those 2 schools would still basically be on a geographic island to themselves.
Plus, think a major reason why UT decided to bite the bullet was because TAMU had gained parity, if not exceeding the Longhorns on the recruiting trail.
Recruits in that region, for the most part, want to stay/play in SEC territory.
The SEC is crucial in being the partner for both conferences to hit the 24 school mark and fir each to have their own playoffs with the winners meeting in the collegiate version of the Super Bowl.
That doesn't happen if you raid or even try to raid the SEC.
Getting to 24 requires each conference to pick off the best achools/programs in the ACC and P12.
There's actually a way to get around the ACC's GoR; that would be if the conference dissolves (think it would take 8 schools).
So, if 8 ACC schools decide that there is no long term future to the ACC without being a Tier 2 conference, the 8 most desirable schools may decide to seek out the B1G and SEC (where I have 3 headed to the B1G and 5 headed to the SEC).
But the linchpin in all of this would be ND.
If ND decided that now was the time to join the B1G, you can be sure that schools like Clemson, UNC, FSU are bailing.
But if the Domers hold off, the ACC will probably remain intact until we get close to 2036.
If ND did join the B1G, they absolutely will insist on not being placed in a midwest division, as they do not want to be seen as a midwestern school.
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30 schools would be too many.
Whole point is to maximize value by cutting the fat (so to speak), and there is no school left in the B12 that offers any real value aside from KU, if ESPN wants to shore up their BB schedule (if the B1G ends up w/ UNC and maybe Duke).
Agree that ND is the linchpin to the ACC opening up for the B1G and SEC, and for that matter, any further B1G expansion out west.
Actually think that ESPN/Disney will try to keep the ACC afloat as long as they can b/c they don't want to lose the BB programming and going to a 24 school B1G and SEC conferences basically means admitting that FS1 /Fox is their equal when it comes to college sports.
Don't see BC being an option as BC didn't add value to the ACC, nor KU (maybe the SEC if ESPN wants better BB programming; they would also add Arizona if that were the case).
Biggest travel issue will be for the sports that play 2-3x a week.
By adding Stanford/Cal, UNC/Duke and Wash/Oregon - to go along with the LA schools, can mitigate things by having the schools travel together when they go cross country.
For instance, UCLA/USC can fly a charter together to NC for a long weekend with each school playing Inc and Dook.
The changes would make would be to make VA and NC green - with UVA and UNC/Duke in the B1G and VT and NCST in the SEC.
WV would probably be green as well just for having a split interest; not that their state university would end up in either conference.
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I think you need to carve out Missouri, Virginia, Texas and Arizona. At the end of the day, when the dust is settled, I think you are going to see the SEC footprint remain roughly the same as they are isolated to the Southeast while the Big Ten covers the majority of the Union as Arizona and Arizona State will ally with their former Pac-10 institutions and Texas, A&M and Missouri ditch the SEC because they have more in common with the western and northern schools than they do the SEC. You might as well add UVA, Va Tech, UNC and Duke to that list as well.
All of these discussions need to include the "grant of rights" in place for the ACC. Schools would have left the ACC already but it's not financially viable for them to do it right now. And probably won't be for many years. If the ACC makes some moves and adds teams or partners with another conference, I think there could be a legal argument made that the current agreement is null and void so teams could then leave. That remains to be seen.
So don't expect much from the ACC right now. And the SEC really doesn't need to make any moves. If the Big Ten can add ND, then I expect them to add several more Pac 12 teams to placate USC and UCLA. Then maybe the Big 12 and PAC 12 join up or something. It's going to be wild ride.
I'm equally interested in what the NCAA does. There will be a ton of teams of teams on the outside looking in. Many of these teams have pretty good college football history. Do they look to reduce scholarship limits to try to balance the playing field? Who knows.
So don't expect much from the ACC right now. And the SEC really doesn't need to make any moves. If the Big Ten can add ND, then I expect them to add several more Pac 12 teams to placate USC and UCLA. Then maybe the Big 12 and PAC 12 join up or something. It's going to be wild ride.
I'm equally interested in what the NCAA does. There will be a ton of teams of teams on the outside looking in. Many of these teams have pretty good college football history. Do they look to reduce scholarship limits to try to balance the playing field? Who knows.
With or without the NCAA, I think this is an interesting question. From the outset, I think it's reasonable to assume that the current B10 and SEC schools plus the incoming four are "in." If, as many believe, we are moving toward a 48 team FBS+ level, there are going to be fewer than 20 open slots and more than 20 P5 programs looking for a place and level to play. Even if schools like Northwestern and Vandy decide the new era of top tier CFB isn't for them, some schools that would like to play at the highest level are going to be left out. I have little doubt that Pittsburgh, West Virginia, NC State and the Arizona schools would like to be involved, but I'm not sure that will be an option for them.
Movement into the Big 10 and SEC is probably done for now unless ND decides they want in somewhere. Until the next chip falls (something playoff related is my guess), there is literally zero need to keep adding teams. The financially viable movers and shakers have done moved.
I hope these clowns push this just far enough to get Congress involved. I hate Fox and ESPN for screwing up CFB.
The real Clowns are Congress. Nothing/no one in the history of Earth has screwed up more stuff than Congress.
As has been pointed out, all of this is about money...obviously. But in order for there to be money, there needs to be interest from fans. The question that remains for me is whether enough people will care in the end. I've laid out the case before that amateurism has appeal and no one cares about the minor leagues in any sport. The more CFB moves toward professionalism, the less interest there will be IMHO. Will CFB, comprised of free agent players with endorsement deals, ultimately continue to generate the money it currently does.
The assessment also seems to be that whatever the B1G and SEC are doing will ultimately lead to a CFB competition outside of the NCAA. So that means completely reconstituting the bylaws that govern the competition. Does that involve reconstituting an NCAA-like body or something else? If the SEC and BIG intend to remain separate organizations, they will likely need some sort of impartial body to enforce whatever rules there are that govern competition.
College football has always been the minor league for the NFL. The only difference is the kids are cashing in legitimately vs all of the under the table cash, cars, $750k homes, etc.
The interest is likely to stay on its current trajectory. If the conference realignment leads to a true playoff, where teams have a set criteria to gain their spot, vs being eye tested in by a room of 15, I think interest increases.
