This BT Tourney is More Important than Bears, Beets, and Battlestar Galactica

[Unbiased_football_fan]

What I miss in terms of quantity of posting hopefully I make up for in quality! (My time is a bit constrained at the moment)

Summary: PSU is currently a longshot but could become the favorite post-Big Ten tournament. The BT tournament is super important this year because of so few matches.

I ran WrestleSim for the NCAA’s pre-Big Ten tournament to see how our Lions (and everyone else) are likely to do. I thought it would be interesting to then run post-Big Ten to see who improved or hurt their chances significantly. (As a reminder, WrestleSim is a probabilistic model that simulates the NCAA tournament many times, you can do some really cool stuff with it! Please search my previous posts for a primer if this is new to you)

Before I get into the details, I want to warn you about an undefeated competitor who can wreck the math behind the whole thing. His name is Postive Covid Test. Looking at the number of wrestlers who missed matches, the number of teams that missed matches, and the number of teams that shut down this season and it is likely that covid will play a role in the outcome. I hope not, but I wouldn’t bet against it. If you are a betting man keep this in mind. The seedings are likely to be all over the place because of the limited matches. By now you usually have 30 matches or more per guy.

With that out of the way, what does this year look like? Well duh, Hawks, Hawks, and more Hawks! Do we really even need to hold the tourney, after all some of the rankers have the margin of victory at 70+ points! Well at the moment, I think we are close to peak Hawk (this is using rankings as seeds and not seeds). They wrestled well at the BT tourney last year, maybe they will again.

Pre-Big Ten Tourney NCAA Projections
Iowa 99.3%, 137 points, 8 AA’s
PSU 0.7%, 84 points, 5 AA’s (80% chance of 2nd or 3rd)
NCSt 0%, 74 points, 5 AA’s (54% chance of 2nd or 3rd)
Michigan 0%, 66 points, 4 AA’s (25% chance of 2nd or 3rd)
OkSt 0%, 62 points, 3 AA’s

Iowa has a 99.3% chance of winning as of now. Iowa has a big lead on paper at the moment. I also ran a simulation what happens if Iowa lost one of their #1’s to covid. The PSU probability increases to 7%. No longer a snowball’s chance in hell or Michigan winning a Big Ten title in football longshot, but a longshot still.

But if you look at the rankings objectively do you see a high likelihood of Iowa rising from where they are? If you are #1 you can’t go higher of course. For the reasons outlined in detail below, I expect that lead will shrink and possibly dramatically. I’ll do an official projection post Big Ten, but it doesn’t take Spencer to get injured to have the result become a coin flip or PSU to be the favorite. Even with Iowa maintaining #1 at 125, #165, #174 and moving down to 2nd at 141, if DeSanto and Young, but more so Murin, Warner, and Cass, don’t do well the lead evaporates. It isn’t crazy that RBY is #2, Nick Lee #1, Brooks #1, and The Kerken #2 post BT tourney. Add in a couple intangibles: it is at home for PSU and Iowa had a LONG layoff. PSU looked very rusty after their layoff. PSU needs to have a good BT tourney.

Lee – #1, I’d be shocked if he lost this year, but maybe he has no lungs wrestling 15 seconds and pinning people. (0, no change in projected points)

DeSanto - #3, Could rise to #2 with a BT championship, but Fix isn’t likely to lose at his tourney. Now if DeSanto finishes 2nd at BT he probably goes down to #4 at NCAAs. If he loses to Alvarez (He is long and gave RBY fits), that probably bumps him to 5 to 7. (+2 to -6)

Eierman - #1, I don’t think he loses to Red/whomever so he is going to finish #1 or #2 at BT. I don’t think he is a clear #1. The last two years, Nick Lee has a better winning percentage against Top 16 wrestlers and a better bonus % against them. Rivera up a weight has a better winning percentage too. Eierman has a lot of funk in scrambles, so he can beat anyone. But Nick Lee is a super crisp finisher. If Lee gets by Rivera I think Lee has the edge. This is a weight where the final order of these seeds at NCAAs probably doesn’t matter all that much. (0 to -6)

Murin - #6, The problem at this weight is the good guys are spread out in different conferences so you can’t climb much unless you win the BT. If Murin were to win BT he probably moves to #4. Wrestle to seed and he probably stays around where he is. Take an unexpected loss and you are sliding to the 8-10 range. The Lovett match could be tough. (+3 to -8)

Young - #5, I think the top 3 at this weight nationally are much better than the rest. The chances of beating Deakin are very small. In fact the match against Saldate may be unexpectedly tough, he is scrappy. A 3-2 type performance (5th) and you are probably looking at an 11-12 seed. He gets Lee which is a better match up for him instead of Coleman. Like Lee and Eierman it looks like the only change is level or down. (0 to -11)

Marinelli - #1, I don’t think he loses at BT. Amine is a brawler like Marinelli, but not at his level. I wonder if his tourney struggles are due to a hard cut as Kemerer is a road block above him. Fun fact, Marinelli’s bonus rate against Top 16 wrestlers is only 10%. He wins soundly but not a bonus machine. (0)

Kemerer - #1, I don’t expect him to lose at BT but this weight is really tough. Massa and Starrocci if he gets there could both challenge. Kemerer is a Hawk who scores bonus against top guys (40%) but not likely after his first match. (0)

Brands - #16, Tough sledding for him. Upside is maybe #4 in the BT and downside is DNP. Right now the #4 guy in the BT is #10 nationally. There isn’t a big point difference in a #10 or #16. Likewise if he didn’t place and therefore didn’t qualify, you are probably only losing a point or two. (0)

Warner - #3, Even winning the BT and he may not rise much as there are unbeatens at this weight nationally. This weight is spread out across the different conferences and tough all the way down to ~ #13-14. With that said I don’t think he is beating Amine, which will give him 2 losses and probably knock him down to a #6. He doesn’t have the quickness to beat Amine. If he were to have a 3-2 type tourney, now he is 7-3 and falling down to the double digits somewhere. Potential big drop in points. (+2 to -9)

Cass - #3, I think the best case at BT is #3, which he probably loses 2-3 spots for NCAAs because of the W/L record. Worst case is probably #4 at BT. Another guy that could (and likely will in this case) end up 7-3 and now looking at a #7 through #9 at NCAAs. Likely big drop in points (-9).

This is my basis for “Peak Hawks”. I hope for this to be true, because as you saw above, at the moment NCAAs would not be very interesting from a team race standpoint. A rough BT tourney could equate to 50 points off Iowa’s projected total. The best case scenario is still likely a loss of a small amount of points from the current projection. Best estimate let’s call it -25.

How is PSU likely to do? Being “down”, if down means projected second, provides opportunity. In addition, our Lions are very young in terms of NCAA wrestling experience, but to my somewhat trained eye very talented. I think that makes this years’ BT tourney and NCAAs even more exciting. Of course I would like PSU to do well, but I also simply want to see where everyone is at and how they stack up. What are their strengths and weaknesses?

Howard – Not Ranked, He has a decent draw in the BT tourney. Right now essentially zero points in terms of NCAAs, so he can only go up. How high could he go? If he makes it through round 1, the rematch with Heinselman is very winnable. He had multiple scoring chances through the first four plus minutes and Malik caught his foot at the wrong time for a late unanswered TD in period 2. From there it was tough sledding to come back. I wouldn’t be surprised at WLWLW for 7th, but I also wouldn’t be surprised at seeing him against Spencer in the finals. Schroder looks to be the semifinal matchup. Post BT looking at maybe 5-3 to 6-2 but big range in NCAA seed due to BT places. Projected #13 down to a #6 at NCAAs. (+11 to 0)

RBY - #2, I think it is unlikely he loses 2 at BT’s, but he could get second. This would possibly drop him to a #4 at NCAAs. (0 to -4)

Lee - #2, At BT’s likely to finish #1 to #3. If the matches are close, it doesn’t really matter the BT finish because the same guys will battle at NCAAs. I don’t think the guys outside the BT are as good as inside though Demas can stack someone. (+4 to -3)

Bartlett - #10, Funny that Intermat has him #10 nationally and he is the #11 seed at BTs. We will find out soon! I loved the quickness he showed, he was close against Sasso who is a wiley cat. His draw at BTs is good, he has two of the weaker (in terms of performance against other top wrestlers) guys to get through to make the semis. Would he face Murin or Lovett? He is a matchup problem for either of those guys especially if he got an early lead on Lovett. Rematch with Sasso possible. What if he won that? Crazy talk right. 11-1, BT champ that would put him #3 at NCAAs. Lets say he goes 3-2 at BT and finishes 5th. That would probably keep him right in the range he is now (#10 to #13). (+13 to 0)

Berge - #8, How good is a healthy Berge? He looked lightening quick when he chose his opportunity in a couple of those matches. Can he beat Deakin? I doubt it, but I think he can beat anyone else at 157 in the BT. BT placement likely #3 to #5. At #3 he would be 9-1 and looking at a #5 at NCAAs. At 8-2 around where he is now. (+5 to 0)

Lee - #15, Rematch with Smith is the key. I don’t know how close he and Smith are because he got caught in a roll thru funk and pinned. It wasn’t an immediate mismatch. Braunagel and Smith was a very close match where Smith gassed a bit. Smith may be better. It isn’t crazy that Lee could get all the way to Marinelli. However, he, like his brother was, seems to be a little too aggressive and it is likely to get him in trouble. If he loses to Smith, he may see Robb on the backside and Robb is a tough hombre. He could miss an auto qualify and hope for a wild card. As a #15 usually only good for 1 point and change at NCAAs. Even getting #2 at BT probably doesn’t move him up a lot because there are lots of guys with good records outside the BT. Maybe #8. (+5 to -1)

Starrocci - #4, This weight is nasty at BTs. He could finish below his current rank nationally at the conference tourney. However, I think the intangibles are pointing towards at least meeting his seed or exceeding it. He is young, and maybe needed a little seasoning both condition wise and mental toughness. He willed himself to win against two #2’s. People forgot about him since his upset loss (that he almost came back from a huge hole). Young guys get better faster than older guys, that’s science. I look forward to a great match with Kemerer. Upside is win this and vault to #1. Even a #2 finish moves him to at worst #3 opposite Kemerer at NCAAs. #5 in the BT is currently #6 nationally. (+8 to -4)

Brooks - #1, 184 is weak in the BT (I mean this as no offense to these great athletes). Like Spencer, I don’t see any chance of a change here. (0)

Beard - #15, The sky is the limit for Beard. He has shown great bonus point potential and was real close to Amine who I think is the best guy at the weight nationally. I think Beard loses another close match to Amine but can no doubt wrestle back to 3rd. A 7-2 record probably only moves him to a #10 nationally. Lots of good guys outside the BT. On paper only gaining a few points. But he could make a deep run at NCAAs and score bonus on the backside. (+3 to 0) This is only the math-based change, the reality is I would not want to wrestle him.

Kerk - #6, Intermat has him at #6 which is a “hey we think this guy may be really good but we don’t know”. Well we will find out. We all really don’t know. It looks much more likely to me that he isn’t only good but great, but that could be my blue colored glasses. He could finish from #1 to #7 at BTs (#1 to #3 looks most likely). If he were to finish #3 and have a close match with Parris, he is probably at worst #4 nationally. Of course if he wins he is #1 no doubt. (+12 to 0)

PSU has a much better chance to get better and significantly better from where they are currently ranked owing to the weird season with limited matches and a very young team. Now is the time to show who they are. On the upside? A whopping + 51 points. On the low end? -12. Midpoint is ~+20 points.

These potential point changes would close up that massive paper gap that currently exists. I hope you all enjoyed my summary and projections, I will update post Big Ten. I also have changed WrestleSim so that I can fix results after each round at NCAAs and simulate the rest of the tourney. That should make for some interesting end of day reading each day of the tournament. I was going to do it last year but.............Enjoy the tourney!

 

[clucas]

Good stuff! Enjoyed the read and look forward to more the next few weeks!

 

[hlstone]

Great reading. Thank you for sharing.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

I agree fully PSU is underranked due primarily to half the squad being somewhat untested freshman and limited exposure due to no open tourneys and a very limited dual season. Likewise Iowa's current rankings represent pretty much their best case scenario the same reasons. Iowas downside is at least 20 points, and or upside probably even more.

Do the additions at previously weak weights 125 and 149 offset the loss of 3 national champions in Cenzo, Mark and Cassar?

My take is, not this year. As great as Starocci may be as well as Kerk it is still not an even swap, and on paper we were not favored last year granted, all of the injuries (Berge, Shak and Cassar)

I think we will cruze to a second place victory in both tourneys, and we 'might' even out place Iowa if everything falls into place perfectly, with us over performing and they under performing to seed. There is a however.

However; the elephant in the corner of the room, and the key differentiator, is bonus. Iowa actually out bonused us two years ago when we had those 3 champs. I think it is too much to expect for our young guns to keep pace. True bonus potential comes with experience and we are still growing into becoming yet another multi-year run powerhouse.

Spencer, Desanto, Eireman, Marinelli, Kemerer and even Cassi are all bonus guys. At least for now, the days of Iowa had fighting, controlling the slow pace, and stalling are gone with the Spencer Lee effect. They have their shit together in terms of generating points against weaker competition. Sure we have our bonus guys too, but a couple fewer and that delta is at least 20 points. I get a sense Beau will be a pleasant surprise, but I think Howard needs one more year to get rolling. He had a very late start and may or may not have time to hit his stride in the next few weeks.

Can we over come the gap? Maybe with a 1-2 out of 10 perfect storm, maybe with a key injury or upset or two, maybe Covid throwing a turd in the puchbowl.

Next year both teams bring back the same lineups. Or young studs will make jumps in both skill and bonus, we may add on a SVN and Facundo for good measure (most likely both redshirts). Iowa becomes the hunted and we the hunter. We've been there before and we know how that ends.

I am going to sit back and enjoy this year with low expectations, and just maybe we will shock the world. More likely, once the tallies are complete, I think we will see bonus is the key differentiating factor. Nevertheless, were coming for Iowa and they know it. Let's see how they handle it.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

I WILL UPDATE THIS AFTER SEEDS ARE OUT

That was a lot of fun! I was so grateful to be able to watch most of the Big Ten tournament. Congrats to the Hawks on their win. Penn State had the opportunity to close the gap, and the gap did close some but not as much as I had hoped.

RANT ON Before I get into simulation results, I want to rant a bit about some of the “wrestling”. There was a lot of great wrestling. I think my favorite match was the 125 7th place match between Ragusin and McKee, lots of action! Locking up with a guy and pushing for 6+ minutes is not wrestling. For a sport that is shrinking all this does is shrink it faster (at the NCAA level). A friend of mine that wrestled at the NCAA level said he would change two things right away. No riding time point unless you score back points, and if you don’t score back points within 30 seconds the wrestlers go back neutral (no escape point awarded either). I like this idea. Too much riding with no purpose other than to waste time and protect a lead. RANT OFF

Running WrestleSim post BT-tourney with my educated guesstimates for seeds results in the following:

Iowa now has a 97.7% chance of winning (99.3% before), projected points now 126 (137 previous).

PSU has moved up from 0.3% to 1.6% (85 points compared to 86).

Iowa’s projected score decreased while PSU stayed relatively flat. NCSt and Missouri are each at 0.3% and Oklahoma St is 0.1%. (Insert Dumb and Dumber gif here). NOTE: THE PROJECTED TOTALS FROM THE RANKING SERVICES ARE BOGUS, BECAUSE THEY DON’T FACTOR IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF WRESTLERS NOT FINISHING TO SEED. HIGH SEEDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FINISH LOWER.

The biggest gains could have been made by wrestling back to 3rd (or 4th) rather than losses to finish like our young guys had. Penn State is YOUNG, no matter which way you slice it and they wrestled like it on the backside. At one point I had added up college matches and I think the PSU lineup had 347 to Iowa’s 855. PSU may not get there this year but will have a very good shot next year. But I am not waving the white flag yet for a variety of reasons…………

• Cael’s teams do worse vis a vis in the BT tourney compared to NCAA’s. Brand’s teams do the opposite.
• Seeding may result in very uneven paths to deep runs. In a normal year you have lots of matches so you have a good idea who is better than. That is why the tournament can be predicted with fairly high accuracy with a numerical model. This year is much more uncertain. The limited matches this year is going to really mess with seeding. What do you do with a guy that is unbeaten from the ACC/Pac12/Big12/MAC/EIWA/etc. in comparison to a third place guy with one or multiple losses from the Big Ten? Some guys are going to get really easy draws and some are going to get brutal draws but we won’t know that a priori. There are going to be lots of upsets. I just hope the seeding is consistent. They set what rules they are going to use and essentially follow them at all weights.
• PSU lost the battle but could have won the war. I believe this could be the case at possibly 4 weights. The four weights were I think PSU could benefit are:
  • 141 – Nick Lee will be #2. But I think these will likely play out exactly as Intermat has them. Wilson (9-0) ACC#1 as the 3. Rivera and Demas each with a loss as the 4/5.
  • 157 – There are three butt kickers at this weight IMHO: Deakin, Hidlay, Carr. If you are not one of these buttkickers then you want to be 12/13 if you are not 4/5. Berge could have been 5 with a W/W finish but instead is currently 10 (Intermat) but is likely to be bumped down by Teemer (PAC#1, better record) and unbeaten EIWA champ. Brady didn’t wrestle like he would beat Kaleb Young but he would have a much better chance beating Young than the top 3. Anyone that is content with 1 point matches is likely to be upset at some point.
  • 174 – Starrocci probably helped himself to a clearer path to the finals. BT #2 with all his victories against top guys makes him #2 or #3. Romero from the Big12 finished unbeaten, he is the other 2/3. That pushes Labriola and Massa as the likely 4/5. Maybe Romero is better than the BT guys? But I know the BT guys are good, and the semis are much more ripe for a favorite to be upset than the finals when they are fully hydrated and rested.
  • 197 – If you look at the 197 rankings Beard is #15, but his record is only 6-4 now with the L/L finish. I was very impressed by him. He ran out of gas in the tourney after the loss to Amine, but he had the eventual champion beat if he didn’t slip. If he is a 16/17 at NCAA’s, right now his path would be 17, Amine, 8/9. That isn’t a bad path to a Top 6 finish which would be a big jump in points from a #16. 197 is likely to be crazy.

I estimate the current gap at ~40 points. Where could these points come from (could not will)?

• Eight of those points can be taken off by Lee winning. Eireman had a fantastic move he won the match with, Lee showed more neutral offense and better defense. As noted above Eireman will have to get through Rivera. That could prove tough. (-8)
• Iowa as a team bonuses at a lower rate than their seeds compared to historical data. Lee is much higher, Kemerer about average, everyone else lower. (-5)
• An Iowa mid-seed flaming out (DeSanto, Young, Warner, Cass). I think this is least likely for Cass, he moves really well for a big guy. More likely for the other 3. (-11)
• An Iowa #1 getting upset in a semi (not likely but who knows) (-6).

Iowa’s floor is probably low 100’s. How can PSU get to 110?

• Need champs, Brooks, RBY, Lee would be good for ~70 points.
• Starrocci #2 is ~19 points.
• Beard and Kerk finishing 6th is ~22 points.

That sums to 111 with zero points from Howard, Berge, and Lee. Basically PSU needs both a Hawk underperformance (but not of epic proportions) and a PSU overperformance (but not of epic proportions). This is an asymmetric risk profile as a PSU fan, as we are not expected to win and by some we are expected to get clobbered. Part of that is the misunderstanding that you can’t just assign points to seeds and add them up. A #1 seed wins only about 70% of the time. The pain felt by Iowa fans if they lose will be infinitely larger than what we feel if PSU loses. We are!