As someone in long term recovery let me share a few things. From what I see/hear JM is indeed at great risk. When the cucumber becomes a pickle it cannot revert back. This will only end one of 3 ways... locked-up, covered up, or sobered up. The common idiom "they need to hit rock bottom" only applies if the person doesn't end up dead first. I work a lot with young adults suffering from this affliction and there seems to be a common theme... chronic uniqueness. When I was at my lowest and working through a bitter divorce, financial failure, etc..., I felt the whole world was against me... like I was the only person in the whole world suffering pain and misery, blah, blah, blah. That self centered-ness is really the root of substance abuse. JM will either work himself through to a spiritual awakening of sorts that he is a typical alcoholic/addict, and that humility and acceptance are the keys to a joyful life, or he will end up a statistic. There are miracles everyday... my good friend Charles Haley is a great example.