To Kerk or not to Kerk, that is the question

[Unbiased_football_fan]

A question that UFF can answer for you. I got the modifications to WrestleSim done so now I can lock in certain results and simulate the rest, pretty cool stuff! After each round I will be able to give you the updated probabilities for the rest of the tournament. It will need a heavy spoiler alert in the title. Anyway I was following the Kerk discussions and wanted to give you some quantitative input. I have no idea how good he is but people seem pretty pumped about him.

Base simulation (intermat rankings as of now used as seeds): Iowa 96%, PSU 4%
Base with Kerk as a #3: Iowa 85%, PSU 15%
Base with Kerk as a #1: Iowa 78%, PSU 22%

Now I looked at what if PSU has a good BT tourney (Hall gets #1, Brooks wins and moves to #3) and Iowa has a 'meh' BT tourney.

Post BT: Iowa 72%, PSU 28%
Post BT with Kerk as #3: Iowa 43%, PSU 57%

It isn't going to take much to make PSU the favorite.

Fun fact: Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

 

[Rhino80]

I was thinking that about Marinelli. Some guys just arnt tournament wrestlers. Ive coached a few kids who rarely lose in a dual but always seem to find a way to drop a match in tournaments. Weird to say the least. Im interested to see how he does this year

 

[Dogwelder]

... Fun fact: Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

They are Marinelli’s Kryptournite!

 

[jmadden1998]

Six of those losses were his redshirt freshman year, 3 at Big 10s and 3 at Nationals. Last year he did pretty good at the Big 10 tourney. In fact, he won 2 out of 3 tournaments he competed. Then lost to the eventual national champ in the quarters at Nationals.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Six of those losses were his redshirt freshman year, 3 at Big 10s and 3 at Nationals. Last year he did pretty good at the Big 10 tourney. In fact, he won 2 out of 3 tournaments he competed. Then lost to the eventual national champ in the quarters at Nationals.

Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

 

[nerfstate]

Six of those losses were his redshirt freshman year, 3 at Big 10s and 3 at Nationals. Last year he did pretty good at the Big 10 tourney. In fact, he won 2 out of 3 tournaments he competed. Then lost to the eventual national champ in the quarters at Nationals.

And then Marsteller in the consis. I think Alex makes the finals this year. After that is anybody’s guess....

 

[bigs22]

Marinelli is really good. Maybe there is something to the tournament thing, but maybe there isn’t. Lots of times these narratives are formed under one or two years of results and turn out to be false. Maybe it’s a small sample size or maybe he’s grown. Quite a few people thought Cenzo was impervious to losing at Nationals, but stuff happens as much as I hate to say it. Write off Marinelli at your own risk.

 

[NittanyChris]

Marinelli is NOT one of the Iowa guys who I think is likely to not wrestle to seed. However, he has yet to show up big under the brightest lights and watching him need a TD with just 46 seconds left to beat Wittlake this weekend...well, who knows? Maybe there is something to the tournament thing.

 

[McScoreley]

If KemDawg wants to get pinned this post season like he did in 2017 and 2018, I'd totally allow it.

All kidding aside though, the kid has jumped levels (and he was damn good before)

 

[El-Jefe]

Marinelli is NOT one of the Iowa guys who I think is likely to not wrestle to seed. However, he has yet to show up big under the brightest lights and watching him need a TD with just 46 seconds left to beat Wittlake this weekend...well, who knows? Maybe there is something to the tournament thing.

Maybe what it means is Wittlake is really good.

But let's not take any chances -- Marinelli can have Wittlake in the quarters and Griffith in the semis, to prove he's a good tournament wrestler.

 

[jmadden1998]

Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

Officially he has 9 career losses and 8 in tournaments. He lost to Isaiah Martinez and Anthony Valencia at Midlands his redshirt year.

 

[ss7]

Maybe what it means is Wittlake is really good.

But let's not take any chances -- Marinelli can have Wittlake in the quarters and Griffith in the semis, to prove he's a good tournament wrestler.

WHAT?!?! THAT WOULD BE THE HARDEST DRAW FOR ANY WRESTLER IN ANY TOURNAMENT EVER!!!

If Marinelli draws a good wrestler at nationals, it's because the seeding committee (lead by Cael, obviously) has it out for him.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Officially he has 9 career losses and 8 in tournaments. He lost to Isaiah Martinez and Anthony Valencia at Midlands his redshirt year.

Unofficially Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

 

[dunkej01]

Six of those losses were his redshirt freshman year, 3 at Big 10s and 3 at Nationals. Last year he did pretty good at the Big 10 tourney. In fact, he won 2 out of 3 tournaments he competed. Then lost to the eventual national champ in the quarters at Nationals.

You and turk take turns fire fighting?

 

[5q]

In Kerks 7-8 matches this year , were any of them against a past qualifier ? I know everyone wants to see him against Iowa’s guy, just curious on your thoughts on how he stacks up with the top 6 in the BIG

 

[Foreverinbluejeans57]

I’d like Bull to get a nice Isaiah White draw in the semis.

 

[johnstownsteel]

I’d like Bull to get a nice Isaiah White draw in the semis.

If I had it my way, I'd like to see Nick Lee, Joseph, Hall, Brooks and Kerk (if he goes) on the same side of the bracket as their Hawkeye counterpart....and meeting them as early as possible.

In case you're wondering....I STILL think PSU can pull this off. Lol

 

[McScoreley]

If I had it my way, I'd like to see Nick Lee, Joseph, Hall, Brooks and Kerk (if he goes) on the same side of the bracket as their Hawkeye counterpart....and meeting them as early as possible.

In case you're wondering....I STILL think PSU can pull this off. Lol

If Cenzo loses to Bull at B1Gs, does Griffith get #1 and Bull, Cenzo meet in the semis?

 

[russelscout]

If Cenzo loses to Bull at B1Gs, does Griffith get #1 and Bull, Cenzo meet in the semis?

No.

 

[McScoreley]

No.

B1G winner #1, B1G loser #2 then Griffith 3?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

No.

Cuz Alex lost in qtrs last year?

 

[russelscout]

B1G winner #1, B1G loser #2 then Griffith 3?

I think so. Maybe if Cenzo wins its him #1 and Bull #3. Im really looking forward to the quaterfinal matchup when Cenzo wrestles White and Bull gets Wick while the 2 and 4 seed walk to the semis. It happens every damn year that the Big 10 just happen to meet eachother more than not in these really significant rounds.

 

[russelscout]

Cuz Alex lost in qtrs last year?

I dont know what you are trying to say.

 

[Dunkindonuts]

Iowa still needs to crap the bed, but it's a lesser crap needed if Kerk goes.

 

[McScoreley]

I think so. Maybe if Cenzo wins its him #1 and Bull #3. Im really looking forward to the quaterfinal matchup when Cenzo wrestles White and Bull gets Wick while the 2 and 4 seed walk to the semis. It happens every damn year that the Big 10 just happen to meet eachother more than not in these really significant rounds.

I view Kennedy Monday as a land mine at 165. That kid gets possessed sometimes and can beat anybody.

 

[diggerpup]

Tom & Terry’s resting heart rate will be 300 bpm once they walk into that football stadium in Minny & see those mats.

They’re going to say the wrong word salad too many times.

That nervous anxiety is going to rub off negatively on a few of their wrestlers.

Secret sauce for a PSU upset title.

 

[El-Jefe]

I view Kennedy Monday as a land mine at 165. That kid gets possessed sometimes and can beat anybody.

Still can't believe he teched McFadden.

Wonder where he'd have to finish at ACCs to draw Marinelli in Round 2. 4th behind McFadden, Bullard, and Wentzel?

 

[PD4thespawn]

i think it took the op 35 minutes to snag one off the bottom. reeled it in belly up of course.

 

[Callthestall]

I sense if Kerk wrestles and things go as chalk, Iowa wins it. However with wrestling being so physical in general and Big Ten and Nationals being truly brutal, Iowa is probably one injured or under performing wrestler away from being in a dog fight. Desanto is a time bomb.Cassioppi, Young and Werner could all have a chance in suffering 2 tough loses in Nationals. Look at what happened to Moore a couple of years ago. Ohio State wins it with him only losing once in tournament.
The only difficulty is Penn State has no margin for error and will need every wrestler to perform to seed or above. That would be very difficult.
It's called a puncher's chance.

 

[NittanyChris]

Iowa is still the big favorite, no doubt about it. We've just lost so much this year.

However, with Kerk going, there still is a path and it's not as narrow as the majority is saying.

I think our guys, the CHAMPS, might be wrestling with a massive chip on their shoulder with everyone writing them off.

WE ARE!!!

 

[jmadden1998]

Unofficially Alex Marinelli has 11 career losses, 10 of them are in tournaments.

The trend is going in the right direction for Alex. Six losses in tourneys 2 years ago and only 2 losses last year. Expect 0-1 losses this year and none next year.

 

[District four]

Still can't believe he teched McFadden.

Wonder where he'd have to finish at ACCs to draw Marinelli in Round 2. 4th behind McFadden, Bullard, and Wentzel?

That kid is no joke. I agree he is a dark horse in that weight class

 

[BoHunter0210]

Love UFF's posts. Can't keep up with everything, is Snacks hurt and is Kerk able to go this year or are we just doing this for fun?

 

[Chris Watts]

Love UFF's posts. Can't keep up with everything, is Snacks hurt and is Kerk able to go this year or are we just doing this for fun?

No, yes, and yes. Or so it seems. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Really, the only thing I'm confident about is the fun part.

 

[RoarLions1]

Wouldn't use ANY unofficial losses to make a point. That could take us into territory that would cause some of you to get defensive about several ex-wrestler's records. Just sayin'.

A redshirt year is a benefit to almost every kid, as it's more than a chance to improve wrestling skills. It's a chance to transition to college without the added pressure of being a starter.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Wouldn't use ANY unofficial losses to make a point. That could take us into territory that would cause some of you to get defensive about several ex-wrestler's records. Just sayin'.

A redshirt year is a benefit to almost every kid, as it's more than a chance to improve wrestling skills. It's a chance to transition to college without the added pressure of being a starter.

The “ underperforming in a tourney setting” call-out has nothing to do with “official, or unofficial” I like the guy and think he is too good of a wrestler to be stuck in Iowa but the fact is, he has a history of underperforming at tourneys...maybe he flips the script this year, maybe he doesnt, but either way the stats dont lie.

 

[edquinn06]

I was thinking that about Marinelli. Some guys just arnt tournament wrestlers. Ive coached a few kids who rarely lose in a dual but always seem to find a way to drop a match in tournaments. Weird to say the least. Im interested to see how he does this year

Same could be said about Nick Lee. I believe they even talked about this last week on FRL.

 

[Lyons212]

Same could be said about Nick Lee. I believe they even talked about this last week on FRL.

I don't think Nick Lee is the best example. In 2018 he was the 8th seed and finished 5th. In 2019 he was the 3rd seed and finished 5th. Also need to keep in mind with Nick Lee is that he was a true freshman in 2018, finished 5th after losing his first match, based upon that I would not say tournament wrestling is an issue.

Marinelli in 2018 was the 5th seed and finished 6th, in 2019 he was the first seed and finished 7th.

Obviously the concern with Marinelli was finishing 7th as the 1 seed last year.

For both of them, you can say they have not finished higher than 5th.

 

[El-Jefe]

The “ underperforming in a tourney setting” call-out has nothing to do with “official, or unofficial” I like the guy and think he is too good of a wrestler to be stuck in Iowa but the fact is, he has a history of underperforming at tourneys...maybe he flips the script this year, maybe he doesnt, but either way the stats dont lie.

So what you're saying by including his true freshman year is: losses as a true freshman to isaiah Martinez and Anthony Valencia are examples of underperforming.

I look forward to seeing the list of true freshmen to have beaten either of them. Especially Martinez.

 

[RoarLions1]

The “ underperforming in a tourney setting” call-out has nothing to do with “official, or unofficial” I like the guy and think he is too good of a wrestler to be stuck in Iowa but the fact is, he has a history of underperforming at tourneys...maybe he flips the script this year, maybe he doesnt, but either way the stats dont lie.

The use of redshirt results to make a point was my point.