TOM analyzes contender bonus point rates
- Thread starter El-Jefe
- Start date
The interesting analysis, using this concept, would be just analyzing the NCAA Tournament. I disagree that it is to small a sample size, this is the sample that matters most and it eliminates skewed results from teams with weak schedules or belonging to a weak conference. Also, analyzing multiple NCAA Tournaments would show whether there is a pattern over time.
The Nittany Lions, as expected, won the most matches, with a team winning percentage of .834, and scored the most bonus points, scoring 3.561 points per match using the dual scoring method. This may seem a bit low to some, but remember that losses count as zero points so a rate of more than 3.5 points per match is quite good.
Also in the I'd Like to See More Department: I'm fine with including losses in one metric of Bonus analysis, but I think I'd also like to a separate metric where losses are not included in that analysis. This would a little more apples to apples, if you will: Of all PSU's wins, x% were won by Bonus, whereas of all OkSt's wins, only y% were by Bonus.
The takeaway is more real, then, when tied to this statement: when PSU wins, they really beat you down, but so & so only beats you a little bit. Taking L's out of the equation might paint a more interesting picture of pure offensive scoring. Of course, at the extreme, a single wrestler who goes 1-20 on the season, but won by pin in his lone W would skew negatively. Which is why both metrics, with & without losses, would be cool to see side-by-side.
Agree, this would be the ultimate test of really going for it vs getting by to the next round.
Bonus part of the article: The picture. Mr Nolf and Mr Jordon seem less than ecstatic.
Good lord! Not sure how I'd thought I'd finished, when I clearly hadn't. Sorry Spladle! Cool stuff!
2013 National Championships (not listing the teams intentionally)
1st Place - 31 Wins
2nd Place - 38 Wins
3rd Place - 43 Wins
4th Place - 27 Wins
5th Place - 22 Wins
6th Place - 21 Wins
7th Place - 27 Wins
8th Place - 20 Wins
9th Place - 19 Wins
10th Place - 25 Wins
1st Place - 31 Wins
2nd Place - 38 Wins
3rd Place - 43 Wins
4th Place - 27 Wins
5th Place - 22 Wins
6th Place - 21 Wins
7th Place - 27 Wins
8th Place - 20 Wins
9th Place - 19 Wins
10th Place - 25 Wins
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I think I get your point Roar, but does that get us anywhere? Placement points swamp bonus points to the point of making total wins a skewed stat. That is IF I am getting the gist of your point.
No, placement points AND bonus points swamp total wins, at least when it comes to PSU. If you have a bunch of guys making the finals they have 5 wins if they are champ and 4 if they are runner up. Many guys in the wrestle backs have 5+ wins but fewer placement points. They also have fewer bonus points because they are NOT Penn State.
I didn't run the other top placers but we also only had 32 wins at the 2012 NCAAs and we won going away.
Lies, da__ lies, and statistics, and I've used statistics my whole life!! I like the article, as it's an attempt to boil it down to something simple...but it's not simple. The discussion is great too, because it helps folks understand tournament scoring.
My warning to this great community of fans, is to look at other variables, as an example;
-- A win is a win is a win at the NCAA Championship? Not so. A win in the 3rd Round of championships earns a wrestler 6 Placement Points, and a win in the 4th Round earns 6 more. Losing in the 3rd Round, and a wrestler still has to win another match just to become AA. And that win, and the next 2 (assuming he keeps winning) is only worth 3 Placement Points per victory. All I'm saying is that the "location" is important too, each "win" is not equal.
I really think one of the hidden factors would be bonus points against top 16 or top ten rated opponents. PSU has a few wrestlers that can bonus just about anyone. Come Nationals is where that becomes basically an extra wrestler or two.
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