ADVERTISEMENT

Tom, doesn't Hammond still have opportunity for an at large?

Yes, Hammond still has a shot at an at-large. My projections show him several spots out from getting one, however.
 
I believe so ...


though I think he's somewhat iffy.

here's what Black Shoe Diaries wrote about the situation:

"Both Garett and [Nick] Moore will be hoping for a wild card entry. Both have strong cases for earning one - but Garett will fall behind Moore in the pecking order. And with just 4 wild cards to go around, this week will be a pensive one."

Hammond would have a much stronger case if he defeated Moore in the 9th-place bout at B1Gs.

What's worse is that Hammond would have been an automatic qualifier if he had defeated Garrett Sutton in his 1st consolation bout.

Roar (or SHP) could do a much better job than I of explaining at-large eligibility.

The at-large bids are supposed to be announced on Wednesday, so I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Tom
 
Re: I believe so ...


Anybody feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about this:

B12s is not a qualifying tournament due to too few teams. So (I think) all of its wrestlers who qualify take up at-large bids.

Just a wild guess here: Dieringer gets one ahead of Hammond.
 
Re: I believe so ...

No you are correct, but I believe the above analysis is already giving 2 to Dieringer and Moreno leaving 4 for the rest of the country.
 
you are correct ...


that the B12 tourney was not a qualifier due to too few teams. Reportedly they are going to announce a joint tourney next year with a western conference so that they'll be a qualifier. (Too much going on the past few days for me to pay much attention to the details. I saw several mentions about it while looking for articles in the daily Articles for post.) And as you indicated, any B12 guys that go to Nationals will do so as at-large bids.

it's a slam dunk that Dieringer is ahead of Hammond, and any other at-large candidate at 165, for an at-large bid.

Tom
 
Here's what hurts (and likely sinks) Hammond: no quality wins (defined as a win over somebody who both earned an AQ for the conference during the regular season, and then cashed in their AQ at the conference tournament). There are some weights (for example, 141) where somebody could get away with that (for example, Dean Heil is likely to get in, despite a whopping zero wins against the field), but 165 is one of the deeper weight in terms of wrestlers needing at-large bids.
 
I saw speculation about that ...


but I don't recall ever seeing that confirmed.

switching gears a bit, were you disappointed in the performance of the D1 (or the SE Regional) wrestlers at States? Or, did they do about as you had expected?

Tom
 
here are SHP's at-large projections ...


as posted on The Mat:


125:
Eddie Klimara, Oklahoma State
Zeke Moisey, West Virginia
Dominic Parisi, Appalachian State
Tim Lambert, Nebraska
Joe DeAngelo, North Carolina State
Ethan Lizak, Minnesota
Evan Silver, Stanford
Scott Parker, Lehigh
Brandon Jeske, Old Dominion

133:
Earl Hall, Iowa State
Aaron Schopp, Edinboro
Cody Brewer, Oklahoma
Mackenzie McGuire, Kent State
Kevin Norstrem, Virginia Tech
Caleb Richardson, Penn
Ian Nickell, CSU Bakersfield
Tyler Keselring, Central Michigan

141:
Steven Rodrigues, Illinois
Dean Heil, Oklahoma State
Dante Rodriguez, Iowa State
Chuck Zeisloft, Rider
Mike Morales, West Virginia
George Fisher, Michigan
Tyler Small, Kent State
Devin Reynolds, Oregon State

149:
Gabe Moreno, Iowa State
Sal Mastriani, Virginia Tech
Nick Barber, Eastern Michigan
Charles Cobb, Penn
Kenneth Theobold, Rutgers
Joshua Kindig, Oklahoma State

157:
Mike Kelly, Iowa
Justin DeAngelis, Oklahoma
Justin Staudenmayer, Brown
Immanuel Kerr-Brown, Duke
Anthony Collica, Oklahoma State
Jarrett Jensen, Northern Iowa

165:
Alex Dieringer, Oklahoma State
Michael Moreno, Iowa State
Nick Moore, Iowa
Adam Fierro, CSU Bakersfield
Jesse Stafford, Air Force
Jonathan Schleifer, Princeton
Max Rohskopf, North Carolina State
Nicholas Wanzek, Minnesota

174:
Kyle Crutchmer, Oklahoma State
Tanner Weatherman, Iowa State
George Pickett, Cornell
Andy McCulley, Wyoming
Raymond Waters, Arizona State
Brian Harvey, Army
Keaton Subjeck, Stanford

184:
Nolan Boyd, Oklahoma State
Brett Harner, Princeton
Lelund Weatherspoon, Iowa State
Nick Fiegener, Cal Poly
Jakob Scheffel, West Virginia
Zach Nevills, Stanford

197:
Kyven Gadson, Iowa State
Nathan Rotert, South Dakota State
Timothy McCall, Wisconsin
Jake A. Smith, West Virginia
Jared Haught, Virginia Tech
Scottie Boykin, Chattanooga

285:
Austin Marsden, Oklahoma State
Ty Walz, Virginia Tech
Evan Knutson, North Dakota State
Ross Larson, Oklahoma
Collin Jensen, Nebraska
Nick Tavanello, Ohio State
 
Re: I saw speculation about that ...


Originally posted by Tom McAndrew:

but I don't recall ever seeing that confirmed.

switching gears a bit, were you disappointed in the performance of the D1 (or the SE Regional) wrestlers at States? Or, did they do about as you had expected?

Tom
I'll give you a long response, since I know you (and usually everyone else here) loves to read about wrestling - can't get enough of it right now.

D1 performed almost exactly as expected, 19 medals for 4th place on the list. I predicted 21 medals in my preview, but since I'm a D1 homer I gave them a medal pretty much wherever it was a 50/50 so I knew I was going to be high. No real surprises, unless you call having 2 D1 wrestlers square off in the 7/8 match in a weight (160) where I predicted 0 medals for the region - so that was a positive.

D1 is not as good as the SW, but is right there with the SC & NE. Our medal count will be a bit behind those 2, but if you look at the kids coming up through D1 they are right there. I think we probably have more potential medalists going the prep route than the other regions right now. I'm definitely pro-prep for kids who make the choice so don't think this is an anti-prep rant. I still consider those kids to be D1 kids. Barlow, Lattanze (x2), Beard, Lusane, Kober, Desmond Johnson all probably medal if they are competing in PIAA. Maybe Brady Riley and a couple of others. Lot's of other good kids in their as well - preps are really coming on here lately. Nate is doing a great job at Malvern and Haverford has got some really good kids. Germantown has a couple of younger kids in their system as well who will be good.

Preview is here for anyone who wants to read it after the fact:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byf6GEGrf9tJQUl1RW5WWnhBdWM/view?usp=sharing

By weight analysis:

106 - I called 3 - Parker, Burke & Campbell and we got 3. D1 is very strong at this weight, Kaliner is also very good and could have medalled with the right draw. In addition there are a couple of other D1 kids that are better than kids that were up there. I thought Parker would win it - although in my preview I thought Klump might give him problems with his size. Even though this is the "little kids" weight, size and experience still usually rules the day and a lot of the "talent" in other parts of the state was either young or small and not ready this year. Next year they will be. Only surprise here was Kaldes (D3) going 0-2, but after blowing the 5-0 lead to Macri in the first round, I guess it wasn't so much.

113 - I called 1 and we got 1 even though I thought we had two of the top 8 kids in Rush and Steffenino. Rush got a real tough draw. Steffenino wrestled great. I called DeSanto to win this and I'm still not convinced he isn't the best wrestler in the bracket after watching. The stall call and two quick neutral pin calls were ridiculous and obviously heartbreaking to the kid, but it's hard to complain because he really was stuck in regulation (again, in a non-control situation) in the Brown match for at least two seconds and the ref didn't call it. So I guess it evens out. That kid needs to work on his funk, lol.

120 I called 2 and we got 1. I was confident with Gulotta, but worried about Hayes' match with Kulp (obviously, justified). But figured Marino would be good with for one the way the brackets fell. Didn't figure on Reigel taking a dive in the first round to take an easier consy path and beat Marino in the medal match. Don't like to rip on kids, and especially because it's generally the parents fault, but this is a couple times this year where that family is just in poor taste (the other at ETR). If you are going to take a dive in the first match, have the balls to just come out and forfeit instead of the charade a former state champ put on. Ridiculous, especially when the kid was running in the hall 15 minutes after his opening round default. Hartman really took it to him to the shed in the 7/8 match for a little karma - love that Hartman kid, hope Belle Vernon attends ETR next year.

126 I called 3 and we got 3. Zack wrestled great. Cummings took care of business even with a tough draw. Miller is a tough customer. Good weight for D1.

132 I called 1 and we got 0. Not terribly surprised here as Cronin got a terrible draw and didn't think Stillings was going to be able to get out of the first round with Haegele (another ex D1 kid), but dissapointed that Cronin lost 1st round and the way he did it.

138 I called 1 for D'Orsaneo and he wrestled great and got 1. Weak weight for D1 past Dimitri

145 I called 1 for D1, most likely from Barth as Petrucelli got a rough draw in Ross and then and even rougher medal match with Verkleeren. Barth got caught in the Klecker headlock run - didn't see that kid getting out of the pigtail and that squashed Barth's shot as he had Hidlay in the medal match. We got 0, there were some real studs at this weight and our best ended up with two of the top kids in their medal matches so a bit of bad luck.

152 I called 1, most likely for Schwartz, and we got 1 with Dellicompagni beating Schwartz in the blood round in a match that Schwartz probably wins 9 out of 10 times. Such is Hershey. Really good weight state wide and Schwartz did a great job securing a medal for D1 with his win over Ethan Smith and then the consy bracket set up all D1 on the bottom for the medal. We were really fighting for only really 1 or 2 available spots on the stand at this weight.

160 I called 0 and we got 2, with two really nice wins by Krauss, over a former medalist, and Elliott, over a returning qualifier. Very nice job to grab medals here.

170 I called 1 with Gentile and he grabbed one, although as I thought, it was not an easy road even for the #1 ranked wrestler in the state. 5 kids with legitimate shots at the title here and Gentile did a great job with a major decision win over tough Drew Peck in the medal round.

182 I called 2 - Wilson and Harvey and they each grabbed one. Not a great weight state wide and our guys were right there with anyone after the top couple.

195 I called 1 and we got 0. Ferrizzi got a tough draw and I wasn't surprised there, but figured Kenis would get to a 50/50 medal match against a kid he had beaten before. Instead he got thumped in his first consy after giving 2-time state champ Jan Johnson all he could handle in round 1. I shouldn't be terribly surprised, because Kenis is a judo kid and if you know whats coming and don't let him work the underhook you completely neutralize him. He has taken some losses this year to kids that didn't get out of districts because of this. Johnson didn't know what was coming and struggled to win. Grape knew what was coming and Kenis couldn't get any offense. Now that his career is over and he is back to competing in Judo, I don't feel bad about divulging that, lol.

220 I called Wood and Outlaw and they both got them. Pretty easy weight, Wood methodically cruised to the title on 1 1/2 shoulders as expected. When fully recovered next year he will be better.

285 Not a great 285 class. Dunn, Monk and Spiller and then maybe Mears & Miller (D3, got a bad draw catching Dunn in Rd1 and then Mears for medal) and then throw everybody else in a hat. Our guys wrestled well and got the 2 I predicted for them.

All in all, D1 wrestled almost uncannily as expected. Doesn't usually happen in Hershey. We will be slightly better next year and I could see us grabbing 25 or so, which will be a nice year.
This post was edited on 3/10 5:32 PM by dicemen99
 
Re: I believe so ...

Originally posted by Tom McAndrew:

though I think he's somewhat iffy.
here's what Black Shoe Diaries wrote about the situation:
"Both Garett and [Nick] Moore will be hoping for a wild card entry. Both have strong cases for earning one - but Garett will fall behind Moore in the pecking order. And with just 4 wild cards to go around, this week will be a pensive one."
Hammond would have a much stronger case if he defeated Moore in the 9th-place bout at B1Gs.
What's worse is that Hammond would have been an automatic qualifier if he had defeated Garrett Sutton in his 1st consolation bout.

Roar (or SHP) could do a much better job than I of explaining at-large eligibility.
The at-large bids are supposed to be announced on Wednesday, so I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Tom
Here's the exact criteria. Garett is in the mix, but even a wrestler like Wanzek, who finished below Garett in the B1G Championships, has as good as, if not better credentials. He won the HTH match-up, and has better "quality wins". I'm not going to call it either way, it's that close.

I read the blackshoesdiaries piece. I'm a huge fan, but they only considered the 3 criteria used for Gold and Silver Standard. Bronze is much different, and the CR, RPI and Win% used for those standards only account for 30% of the Bronze criteria.



Secondary Criteria


On March 9, wrestlers in each weight class will receive an updated Win %, RPI and coaches ranking that includes all

competition through the qualifying events. Wrestlers who meet or exceed any two of the following criteria will be labeled


"Bronze Standard".
- .700 Win %

- Top 33 RPI

- Top 33 CR

- .700 winning percentage against all competition

- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (pre-allocated)

- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification


Only Bronze Standard wrestlers will be eligible for selection as at-large qualifiers. A wrestler must have participated in his respective conference or regional qualifying tournament in order to be considered for at-large selection to the championships. The NCAA Wrestling Committee will use the following weighted criteria, in priority order, to evaluate the

Bronze Standard wrestlers:

- Head-to-head competition - 25 percent

- Quality wins - 20 percent

- Results against common opponents - 10 percent

- RPI - 10 percent

- Qualifying event placement - 10 percent

- CR - 10 percent

- Win % - 10 percent

- Number of matches contested at that weight class - 5 percent





This post was edited on 3/10 6:57 PM by RoarLions1

This post was edited on 3/10 8:49 PM by RoarLions1
 
I think Hammond squeeks by Wanzek, but that doesn't mean he's in. Here's why. Hammond should win the bolded criteria although RPI is tough to tell. Hammond has a hug lead in win% which is a big component of RPI. This would be 55-45% so it comes down to RPI, IMO.


Bronze Standard wrestlers:
- Head-to-head competition - 25 percent
- Quality wins - 20 percent
- Results against common opponents - 10 percent
- RPI - 10 percent
- Qualifying event placement - 10 percent
- CR - 10 percent
- Win % - 10 percent
- Number of matches contested at that weight class - 5 percent
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT