Trust the process - which schools churn and burn through the most recruits

[GarrettFildman]

So I have summed the class sizes for all power 5 schools and Notre Dame for the 4 year (2016 - 2019 classes), 5 year (2015 - 2019), and 10 year (2010 - 2019) recruiting cycles. The schools with the highest numbers of recruits likely had the most wash outs, injuries (sort of a wash out), transfers (another wash out but I'll need to account for this differently in the future with the advent of the portal that has made this number much higher this year), and of course early draft entrants.

The wash out rate I calculate is the number above 85 (less the early NFL draft entrants, can't include that as a wash out) divided by 85 for the 4 year. For the 5 year, the number 85 becomes 106.25 in the formula since that is 5/4 of 85. For the 10 year, the number 85 is actually 212.5.

So do the schools with the highest Wash Out Rate process kids out of their program? Very likely, but they also may have had some injuries and transfers for legit reasons. What does it mean if a school has a negative wash out rate? Well, likely they don't do much of any processing and they probably have a good number using their 5 year of eligibility.

Some interesting things I saw in the data:

1) Michigan has surged to the top of the Wash Out list recently. I don't know what they are doing up there but I think I'd be weary of it if I were a recruit.
2) Wash St must have had a bring in too many and process strategy for a long time.
3) Purdue seems to have always had a little processing but ramped it up as of late.
4) I thought the SEC would dominate in the processing and they have a lot of schools up there in the Wash Out Rate, but they have competition in this area.
5) LSU recruits must care about only 1 thing and that's the NFL because they have a ridiculous number of early NFL entrants (37, next highest Florida at 29 and then FSU at 27) since the 2013 draft. Either that or the kids just want the heck out of LSU.
6) Speaking of early entrants, Georgia Tech is the only power 5 school with 0 since the 2013 draft. There was even one from Brown and some school called Friends which I though was a 90s sitcom.
7) Stanford and Northwestern seem to want to beat teams with experience because they have very negative Wash Out rates indicating likely less roster turnover and lots of redshirt seniors. Maybe this is how they can compete at a decent but not elite level without processing or paying recruits? It looks like PSU used to follow this strategy but has evolved a little. Interestingly, Clemson has done very well as of late with a low Wash Out Rate.

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (4 year) and also includes school name / total 4 year class size / number of 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 4 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /106 /1 /23.53%
2 Mich /103 /4 /16.47%
3 Texas/ 100/ 1 /16.47%
4 Purdue /99 /0 1/6.47%
5 V. Tech /99 /0 /16.47%
6 S.Car /98 /0 /15.29%
7 Ole Miss /101/ 4 /14.12%
8 Iowa St /99 /2 /14.12%
9 TCU /97/ 0 /14.12%
10 Utah/97/ 0/ 14.12%
11 Alabama /103/ 7/ 12.94%
12 Oregon /97/ 1/ 12.94%
13 UVA /96 /0/ 12.94%
14 Georgia/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
15 Tex A&M/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
16 LSU/ 98/ 3 /11.76%
17 Kentucky/ 96/ 1/ 11.76%
18 Tenn/ 96/ 1 /11.76%
19 WVU/ 95/ 1/ 10.59%
20 Minnesota /94/ 0/ 10.59%
21 Colorado /94/ 0/ 10.59%
22 Illinois /93/ 0/ 9.41%
23 Indiana /93/ 0/ 9.41%
24 Nebraska /93/ 0 /9.41%
25 Baylor /93/ 0/ 9.41%
26 Oregon St /93/ 0/ 9.41%
27 UCLA /94/ 2/ 8.24%
28 Missouri/ 93/ 1/ 8.24%
29 Maryland /92/ 0/ 8.24%
30 N. Car /93/ 2 /7.06%
31 Oklahoma /96/ 6 /5.88%
32 Notre Dame/ 93/ 3/ 5.88%
33 NC St /92/ 2/ 5.88%
34 Pitt /90 /0/ 5.88%
35 Arkansas /90 /1 /4.71%
36 Rutgers /89/ 0 /4.71%
37 Florida /93/ 5/ 3.53%
38 Iowa /92 /4 /3.53%
39 FSU /91 /3 /3.53%
40 Cal /88 /0 /3.53%
41 USC /88 /0 /3.53%
42 Auburn/ 90 /3 /2.35%
43 Okla St/ 89/ 2/ 2.35%
44 Miss St/ 88 /1 /2.35%
45 K State /88/ 1/ 2.35%
46 Syracuse /87/ 0 /2.35%
47 Mich St /87 /1 /1.18%
48 Ariz /86 /0 /1.18%
49 Louisville /86/ 0 /1.18%
50 Wake Forest /86/ 1/ 0.00%
51 Georgia Tech /85/ 0/ 0.00%
52 Ohio St 89 /6 /-2.35%
53 Penn St 88 /5 /-2.35%
54 Texas Tech /84/ 1 /-2.35%
55 Ariz St /84 /1 /-2.35%
56 Kansas /83/ 0 /-2.35%
57 Wisconsin/ 83 /1 /-3.53%
58 Vandy /82 /1/ -4.71%
59 Miami /83 /3/ -5.88%
60 Duke /81/ 2 /-7.06%
61 BC /80 /1 /-7.06%
62 Clemson/ 81/ 4/ -9.41%
63 Washington /78/ 2/ -10.59%
64 NW /76 /0 /-10.59%
65 Stanford /76/ 3/ -14.12%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (5 year) and also includes school name / total 5 year class size / number of 2018 and 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 5 Year Wash Out Rate
​

1 Wash St /131/ 3/ 20.47%
2 S.Car /129/ 1/ 20.47%
3 Purdue /125/ 1/ 16.71%
4 Georgia /129/ 6 /15.76%
5 Texas /129 /7 /14.82%
6 Tenn /126/ 4/ 14.82%
7 Iowa St /123/ 2/ 13.88%
8 Tex A&M /126/ 5/ 13.88%
9 V. Tech /123/ 3 /12.94%
10 Utah /120/ 0 /12.94%
11 UVA /119/ 0 /12.00%
12 Ole Miss /123 /5 /11.06%
13 TCU /118/ 0/ 11.06%
14 Oregon /119/ 1/ 11.06%
15 Minnesota /118/ 0 /11.06%
16 Illinois /117/ 0/ 10.12%
17 Kentucky /117 /1/ 9.18%
18 WVU /117 1/ 9.18%
19 Missouri /117/ 1 /9.18%
20 Alabama /127/ 12 /8.24%
21 Indiana /116/ 1/ 8.24%
22 Rutgers /115/ 0 /8.24%
23 Syracuse/ 115/ 0/ 8.24%
24 Arkansas /115/ 1/ 7.29%
25 Miss St /115 /1 /7.29%
26 Mich /117/ 4 /6.35%
27 Oklahoma/ 124/ 11/ 6.35%
28 Cal /113 /0/ 6.35%
29 LSU/ 122 /10 /5.41%
30 Colorado /113 /1 /5.41%
31 Nebraska /114 /2 /5.41%
32 Baylor /112 /0 /5.41%
33 Oregon St /113 /1/ 5.41%
34 USC /116 /4/ 5.41%
35 Auburn /119/ 7 /5.41%
36 Ariz /112/ 0/ 5.41%
37 Georgia Tech /112/ 0/ 5.41%
38 NC St /115 /4 /4.47%
39 Notre Dame/ 116 /6 /3.53%
40 N. Car /112 /3/ 2.59%
41 Wake Forest /111/ 2/ 2.59%
42 Maryland /110/ 2/ 1.65%
43 Okla St /110 /2 /1.65%
44 Louisville /111/ 3 /1.65%
45 Kansas /109/ 1/ 1.65%
46 UCLA /113 /6 /0.71%
47 Iowa /113 /6 /0.71%
48 K State /110/ 3 /0.71%
49 Mich St /108 /1 /0.71%
50 Penn St /113 /6 /0.71%
51 Florida /114 /8/ -0.24%
52 Ohio St /114 /9/ -1.18%
53 BC /105 /1 /-2.12%
54 Ariz St/ 107 /4 /-3.06%
55 Pitt /105 /3 /-4.00%
56 FSU /111 /9/ -4.00%
57 Texas Tech /103 /2/ -4.94%
58 Wisconsin /102/ 2/ -5.88%
59 Vandy/ 101/ 1/ -5.88%
60 Washington /103/ 3/ -5.88%
61 Clemson/ 107 /8/ -6.82%
62 Miami /105/ 7/ -7.76%
63 Duke/ 99/ 2 /-8.71%
64 NW /96/ 0/ -9.65%
65 Stanford /98/ 7/ -14.35%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (10 year) and also includes school name / total 10 year class size / number of 2013 trough 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 10 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /254 /5 /17.18%​

2 Iowa St /248/ 3/ 15.29%
3 Tenn /257/ 13/ 14.82%
4 S.Car/ 251/ 9/ 13.88%
5 Kentucky/ 244/ 3/ 13.41%
6 Ole Miss /250/ 10 /12.94%
7 Alabama /255/ 15/ 12.94%
8 Syracuse /244/ 4/ 12.94%
9 Arkansas /246/ 7/ 12.47%
10 Ariz /241/ 3/ 12.00%
11 Georgia /248/ 12/ 11.06%
12 Indiana /243/ 7/ 11.06%
13 Texas Tech /239/ 4/ 10.59%
14 Miss St /240 /6/ 10.12%
15 Auburn /250/ 16/ 10.12%
16 Purdue /235/ 2/ 9.65%
17 V. Tech /239/ 6/ 9.65%
18 WVU /238/ 5/ 9.65%
19 Minnesota /233/ 1 9.18%
20 Baylor /238/ 6/ 9.18%
21 Tex A&M /245/ 14/ 8.71%
22 TCU /235/ 4/ 8.71%
23 Okla St/ 237/ 6/ 8.71%
24 Texas /241/ 11/ 8.24%
25 Illinois /231/ 1 /8.24%
26 Oregon St /234/ 4/ 8.24%
27 Missouri/ 235/ 6/ 7.76%
28 Utah /233/ 5 /7.29%
29 UVA /229 /2 /6.82%
30 Rutgers /232/ 5/ 6.82%
31 Oklahoma /247/ 20 /6.82%
32 Mich /233 /7/ 6.35%
33 NC St /233/ 8/ 5.88%
34 Iowa /230/ 6/ 5.41%
35 Colorado /226/ 3/ 4.94%
36 Kansas /225/ 2/ 4.94%
37 Ariz St /228/ 7/ 4.00%
38 Oregon /227/ 7/ 3.53%
39 Miami /234 /15 /3.06%
40 Washington /230/ 12 /2.59%
41 Nebraska /221/ 5 /1.65%
42 Vandy /219/ 4/ 1.18%
43 Wake Forest /216/ 2/ 0.71%
44 K State /219/ 5/ 0.71%
45 LSU /249/ 37/ -0.24%
46 Maryland /217/ 5/ -0.24%
47 Louisville /220/ 8/ -0.24%
48 FSU/ 239/ 27/ -0.24%
49 Pitt /216/ 5/ -0.71%
50 N. Car /219/ 10/ -1.65%
51 UCLA /225/ 16/ -1.65%
52 Mich St /217/ 8/ -1.65%
53 Georgia Tech /207/ 0/ -2.59%
54 Florida /236/ 29/ -2.59%
55 BC /209/ 2 /-2.59%
56 Notre Dame /224 /18 -3.06%
57 Ohio St /232 /26 /-3.06%
58 Cal /214/ 12/ -4.94%
59 Wisconsin /208/ 6/ -4.94%
60 USC /219/ 19/ -5.88%
61 Clemson /224/ 24/ -5.88%
62 Duke /200/ 2/ -6.82%
63 Penn St /208/ 14/ -8.71%
64 NW /184/ 1/ -13.88%
65 Stanford/ 193/ 18/ -17.65%

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

So I have summed the class sizes for all power 5 schools and Notre Dame for the 4 year (2016 - 2019 classes), 5 year (2015 - 2019), and 10 year (2010 - 2019) recruiting cycles. The schools with the highest numbers of recruits likely had the most wash outs, injuries (sort of a wash out), transfers (another wash out but I'll need to account for this differently in the future with the advent of the portal that has made this number much higher this year), and of course early draft entrants.

The wash out rate I calculate is the number above 85 (less the early NFL draft entrants, can't include that as a wash out) divided by 85 for the 4 year. For the 5 year, the number 85 becomes 106.25 in the formula since that is 5/4 of 85. For the 10 year, the number 85 is actually 212.5.

So do the schools with the highest Wash Out Rate process kids out of their program? Very likely, but they also may have had some injuries and transfers for legit reasons. What does it mean if a school has a negative wash out rate? Well, likely they don't do much of any processing and they probably have a good number using their 5 year of eligibility.

Some interesting things I saw in the data:

1) Michigan has surged to the top of the Wash Out list recently. I don't know what they are doing up there but I think I'd be weary of it if I were a recruit.
2) Wash St must have had a bring in too many and process strategy for a long time.
3) Purdue seems to have always had a little processing but ramped it up as of late.
4) I thought the SEC would dominate in the processing and they have a lot of schools up there in the Wash Out Rate, but they have competition in this area.
5) LSU recruits must care about only 1 thing and that's the NFL because they have a ridiculous number of early NFL entrants (37, next highest Florida at 29 and then FSU at 27) since the 2013 draft. Either that or the kids just want the heck out of LSU.
6) Speaking of early entrants, Georgia Tech is the only power 5 school with 0 since the 2013 draft. There was even one from Brown and some school called Friends which I though was a 90s sitcom.
7) Stanford and Northwestern seem to want to beat teams with experience because they have very negative Wash Out rates indicating likely less roster turnover and lots of redshirt seniors. Maybe this is how they can compete at a decent but not elite level without processing or paying recruits? It looks like PSU used to follow this strategy but has evolved a little. Interestingly, Clemson has done very well as of late with a low Wash Out Rate.

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (4 year) and also includes school name / total 4 year class size / number of 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 4 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /106 /1 /23.53%
2 Mich /103 /4 /16.47%
3 Texas/ 100/ 1 /16.47%
4 Purdue /99 /0 1/6.47%
5 V. Tech /99 /0 /16.47%
6 S.Car /98 /0 /15.29%
7 Ole Miss /101/ 4 /14.12%
8 Iowa St /99 /2 /14.12%
9 TCU /97/ 0 /14.12%
10 Utah/97/ 0/ 14.12%
11 Alabama /103/ 7/ 12.94%
12 Oregon /97/ 1/ 12.94%
13 UVA /96 /0/ 12.94%
14 Georgia/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
15 Tex A&M/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
16 LSU/ 98/ 3 /11.76%
17 Kentucky/ 96/ 1/ 11.76%
18 Tenn/ 96/ 1 /11.76%
19 WVU/ 95/ 1/ 10.59%
20 Minnesota /94/ 0/ 10.59%
21 Colorado /94/ 0/ 10.59%
22 Illinois /93/ 0/ 9.41%
23 Indiana /93/ 0/ 9.41%
24 Nebraska /93/ 0 /9.41%
25 Baylor /93/ 0/ 9.41%
26 Oregon St /93/ 0/ 9.41%
27 UCLA /94/ 2/ 8.24%
28 Missouri/ 93/ 1/ 8.24%
29 Maryland /92/ 0/ 8.24%
30 N. Car /93/ 2 /7.06%
31 Oklahoma /96/ 6 /5.88%
32 Notre Dame/ 93/ 3/ 5.88%
33 NC St /92/ 2/ 5.88%
34 Pitt /90 /0/ 5.88%
35 Arkansas /90 /1 /4.71%
36 Rutgers /89/ 0 /4.71%
37 Florida /93/ 5/ 3.53%
38 Iowa /92 /4 /3.53%
39 FSU /91 /3 /3.53%
40 Cal /88 /0 /3.53%
41 USC /88 /0 /3.53%
42 Auburn/ 90 /3 /2.35%
43 Okla St/ 89/ 2/ 2.35%
44 Miss St/ 88 /1 /2.35%
45 K State /88/ 1/ 2.35%
46 Syracuse /87/ 0 /2.35%
47 Mich St /87 /1 /1.18%
48 Ariz /86 /0 /1.18%
49 Louisville /86/ 0 /1.18%
50 Wake Forest /86/ 1/ 0.00%
51 Georgia Tech /85/ 0/ 0.00%
52 Ohio St 89 /6 /-2.35%
53 Penn St 88 /5 /-2.35%
54 Texas Tech /84/ 1 /-2.35%
55 Ariz St /84 /1 /-2.35%
56 Kansas /83/ 0 /-2.35%
57 Wisconsin/ 83 /1 /-3.53%
58 Vandy /82 /1/ -4.71%
59 Miami /83 /3/ -5.88%
60 Duke /81/ 2 /-7.06%
61 BC /80 /1 /-7.06%
62 Clemson/ 81/ 4/ -9.41%
63 Washington /78/ 2/ -10.59%
64 NW /76 /0 /-10.59%
65 Stanford /76/ 3/ -14.12%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (5 year) and also includes school name / total 5 year class size / number of 2018 and 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 5 Year Wash Out Rate
​

1 Wash St /131/ 3/ 20.47%
2 S.Car /129/ 1/ 20.47%
3 Purdue /125/ 1/ 16.71%
4 Georgia /129/ 6 /15.76%
5 Texas /129 /7 /14.82%
6 Tenn /126/ 4/ 14.82%
7 Iowa St /123/ 2/ 13.88%
8 Tex A&M /126/ 5/ 13.88%
9 V. Tech /123/ 3 /12.94%
10 Utah /120/ 0 /12.94%
11 UVA /119/ 0 /12.00%
12 Ole Miss /123 /5 /11.06%
13 TCU /118/ 0/ 11.06%
14 Oregon /119/ 1/ 11.06%
15 Minnesota /118/ 0 /11.06%
16 Illinois /117/ 0/ 10.12%
17 Kentucky /117 /1/ 9.18%
18 WVU /117 1/ 9.18%
19 Missouri /117/ 1 /9.18%
20 Alabama /127/ 12 /8.24%
21 Indiana /116/ 1/ 8.24%
22 Rutgers /115/ 0 /8.24%
23 Syracuse/ 115/ 0/ 8.24%
24 Arkansas /115/ 1/ 7.29%
25 Miss St /115 /1 /7.29%
26 Mich /117/ 4 /6.35%
27 Oklahoma/ 124/ 11/ 6.35%
28 Cal /113 /0/ 6.35%
29 LSU/ 122 /10 /5.41%
30 Colorado /113 /1 /5.41%
31 Nebraska /114 /2 /5.41%
32 Baylor /112 /0 /5.41%
33 Oregon St /113 /1/ 5.41%
34 USC /116 /4/ 5.41%
35 Auburn /119/ 7 /5.41%
36 Ariz /112/ 0/ 5.41%
37 Georgia Tech /112/ 0/ 5.41%
38 NC St /115 /4 /4.47%
39 Notre Dame/ 116 /6 /3.53%
40 N. Car /112 /3/ 2.59%
41 Wake Forest /111/ 2/ 2.59%
42 Maryland /110/ 2/ 1.65%
43 Okla St /110 /2 /1.65%
44 Louisville /111/ 3 /1.65%
45 Kansas /109/ 1/ 1.65%
46 UCLA /113 /6 /0.71%
47 Iowa /113 /6 /0.71%
48 K State /110/ 3 /0.71%
49 Mich St /108 /1 /0.71%
50 Penn St /113 /6 /0.71%
51 Florida /114 /8/ -0.24%
52 Ohio St /114 /9/ -1.18%
53 BC /105 /1 /-2.12%
54 Ariz St/ 107 /4 /-3.06%
55 Pitt /105 /3 /-4.00%
56 FSU /111 /9/ -4.00%
57 Texas Tech /103 /2/ -4.94%
58 Wisconsin /102/ 2/ -5.88%
59 Vandy/ 101/ 1/ -5.88%
60 Washington /103/ 3/ -5.88%
61 Clemson/ 107 /8/ -6.82%
62 Miami /105/ 7/ -7.76%
63 Duke/ 99/ 2 /-8.71%
64 NW /96/ 0/ -9.65%
65 Stanford /98/ 7/ -14.35%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (10 year) and also includes school name / total 10 year class size / number of 2013 trough 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 10 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /254 /5 /17.18%​

2 Iowa St /248/ 3/ 15.29%
3 Tenn /257/ 13/ 14.82%
4 S.Car/ 251/ 9/ 13.88%
5 Kentucky/ 244/ 3/ 13.41%
6 Ole Miss /250/ 10 /12.94%
7 Alabama /255/ 15/ 12.94%
8 Syracuse /244/ 4/ 12.94%
9 Arkansas /246/ 7/ 12.47%
10 Ariz /241/ 3/ 12.00%
11 Georgia /248/ 12/ 11.06%
12 Indiana /243/ 7/ 11.06%
13 Texas Tech /239/ 4/ 10.59%
14 Miss St /240 /6/ 10.12%
15 Auburn /250/ 16/ 10.12%
16 Purdue /235/ 2/ 9.65%
17 V. Tech /239/ 6/ 9.65%
18 WVU /238/ 5/ 9.65%
19 Minnesota /233/ 1 9.18%
20 Baylor /238/ 6/ 9.18%
21 Tex A&M /245/ 14/ 8.71%
22 TCU /235/ 4/ 8.71%
23 Okla St/ 237/ 6/ 8.71%
24 Texas /241/ 11/ 8.24%
25 Illinois /231/ 1 /8.24%
26 Oregon St /234/ 4/ 8.24%
27 Missouri/ 235/ 6/ 7.76%
28 Utah /233/ 5 /7.29%
29 UVA /229 /2 /6.82%
30 Rutgers /232/ 5/ 6.82%
31 Oklahoma /247/ 20 /6.82%
32 Mich /233 /7/ 6.35%
33 NC St /233/ 8/ 5.88%
34 Iowa /230/ 6/ 5.41%
35 Colorado /226/ 3/ 4.94%
36 Kansas /225/ 2/ 4.94%
37 Ariz St /228/ 7/ 4.00%
38 Oregon /227/ 7/ 3.53%
39 Miami /234 /15 /3.06%
40 Washington /230/ 12 /2.59%
41 Nebraska /221/ 5 /1.65%
42 Vandy /219/ 4/ 1.18%
43 Wake Forest /216/ 2/ 0.71%
44 K State /219/ 5/ 0.71%
45 LSU /249/ 37/ -0.24%
46 Maryland /217/ 5/ -0.24%
47 Louisville /220/ 8/ -0.24%
48 FSU/ 239/ 27/ -0.24%
49 Pitt /216/ 5/ -0.71%
50 N. Car /219/ 10/ -1.65%
51 UCLA /225/ 16/ -1.65%
52 Mich St /217/ 8/ -1.65%
53 Georgia Tech /207/ 0/ -2.59%
54 Florida /236/ 29/ -2.59%
55 BC /209/ 2 /-2.59%
56 Notre Dame /224 /18 -3.06%
57 Ohio St /232 /26 /-3.06%
58 Cal /214/ 12/ -4.94%
59 Wisconsin /208/ 6/ -4.94%
60 USC /219/ 19/ -5.88%
61 Clemson /224/ 24/ -5.88%
62 Duke /200/ 2/ -6.82%
63 Penn St /208/ 14/ -8.71%
64 NW /184/ 1/ -13.88%
65 Stanford/ 193/ 18/ -17.65%

 

[GarrettFildman]

All that:

To answer (with a cornucopia of erroneous assumptions ) the question:

That everyone already knew the answer to.


Sweet Jeebzus

Normie, what are the erroneous assumptions in your opinion? Is this data not valid for some reason? Is the actual class size for each school listed in 247 not correct? Is the sum of X number of classes relative to the allowable roster limit not correlated to a wash out rate? Should early draft entrants count as wash outs? Is the NFL draft early entrant data from the NFL not correct?

You are averse to data for some reason. I can see you looking at my list of 7 takeaways from the data and saying, yeah, I disagree with that analysis of the data. But the data is the data. Why do you abhor collections of data?

 

[Thomas1945]

So I have summed the class sizes for all power 5 schools and Notre Dame for the 4 year (2016 - 2019 classes), 5 year (2015 - 2019), and 10 year (2010 - 2019) recruiting cycles. The schools with the highest numbers of recruits likely had the most wash outs, injuries (sort of a wash out), transfers (another wash out but I'll need to account for this differently in the future with the advent of the portal that has made this number much higher this year), and of course early draft entrants.

The wash out rate I calculate is the number above 85 (less the early NFL draft entrants, can't include that as a wash out) divided by 85 for the 4 year. For the 5 year, the number 85 becomes 106.25 in the formula since that is 5/4 of 85. For the 10 year, the number 85 is actually 212.5.

So do the schools with the highest Wash Out Rate process kids out of their program? Very likely, but they also may have had some injuries and transfers for legit reasons. What does it mean if a school has a negative wash out rate? Well, likely they don't do much of any processing and they probably have a good number using their 5 year of eligibility.

Some interesting things I saw in the data:

1) Michigan has surged to the top of the Wash Out list recently. I don't know what they are doing up there but I think I'd be weary of it if I were a recruit.
2) Wash St must have had a bring in too many and process strategy for a long time.
3) Purdue seems to have always had a little processing but ramped it up as of late.
4) I thought the SEC would dominate in the processing and they have a lot of schools up there in the Wash Out Rate, but they have competition in this area.
5) LSU recruits must care about only 1 thing and that's the NFL because they have a ridiculous number of early NFL entrants (37, next highest Florida at 29 and then FSU at 27) since the 2013 draft. Either that or the kids just want the heck out of LSU.
6) Speaking of early entrants, Georgia Tech is the only power 5 school with 0 since the 2013 draft. There was even one from Brown and some school called Friends which I though was a 90s sitcom.
7) Stanford and Northwestern seem to want to beat teams with experience because they have very negative Wash Out rates indicating likely less roster turnover and lots of redshirt seniors. Maybe this is how they can compete at a decent but not elite level without processing or paying recruits? It looks like PSU used to follow this strategy but has evolved a little. Interestingly, Clemson has done very well as of late with a low Wash Out Rate.

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (4 year) and also includes school name / total 4 year class size / number of 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 4 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /106 /1 /23.53%
2 Mich /103 /4 /16.47%
3 Texas/ 100/ 1 /16.47%
4 Purdue /99 /0 1/6.47%
5 V. Tech /99 /0 /16.47%
6 S.Car /98 /0 /15.29%
7 Ole Miss /101/ 4 /14.12%
8 Iowa St /99 /2 /14.12%
9 TCU /97/ 0 /14.12%
10 Utah/97/ 0/ 14.12%
11 Alabama /103/ 7/ 12.94%
12 Oregon /97/ 1/ 12.94%
13 UVA /96 /0/ 12.94%
14 Georgia/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
15 Tex A&M/ 99/ 4/ 11.76%
16 LSU/ 98/ 3 /11.76%
17 Kentucky/ 96/ 1/ 11.76%
18 Tenn/ 96/ 1 /11.76%
19 WVU/ 95/ 1/ 10.59%
20 Minnesota /94/ 0/ 10.59%
21 Colorado /94/ 0/ 10.59%
22 Illinois /93/ 0/ 9.41%
23 Indiana /93/ 0/ 9.41%
24 Nebraska /93/ 0 /9.41%
25 Baylor /93/ 0/ 9.41%
26 Oregon St /93/ 0/ 9.41%
27 UCLA /94/ 2/ 8.24%
28 Missouri/ 93/ 1/ 8.24%
29 Maryland /92/ 0/ 8.24%
30 N. Car /93/ 2 /7.06%
31 Oklahoma /96/ 6 /5.88%
32 Notre Dame/ 93/ 3/ 5.88%
33 NC St /92/ 2/ 5.88%
34 Pitt /90 /0/ 5.88%
35 Arkansas /90 /1 /4.71%
36 Rutgers /89/ 0 /4.71%
37 Florida /93/ 5/ 3.53%
38 Iowa /92 /4 /3.53%
39 FSU /91 /3 /3.53%
40 Cal /88 /0 /3.53%
41 USC /88 /0 /3.53%
42 Auburn/ 90 /3 /2.35%
43 Okla St/ 89/ 2/ 2.35%
44 Miss St/ 88 /1 /2.35%
45 K State /88/ 1/ 2.35%
46 Syracuse /87/ 0 /2.35%
47 Mich St /87 /1 /1.18%
48 Ariz /86 /0 /1.18%
49 Louisville /86/ 0 /1.18%
50 Wake Forest /86/ 1/ 0.00%
51 Georgia Tech /85/ 0/ 0.00%
52 Ohio St 89 /6 /-2.35%
53 Penn St 88 /5 /-2.35%
54 Texas Tech /84/ 1 /-2.35%
55 Ariz St /84 /1 /-2.35%
56 Kansas /83/ 0 /-2.35%
57 Wisconsin/ 83 /1 /-3.53%
58 Vandy /82 /1/ -4.71%
59 Miami /83 /3/ -5.88%
60 Duke /81/ 2 /-7.06%
61 BC /80 /1 /-7.06%
62 Clemson/ 81/ 4/ -9.41%
63 Washington /78/ 2/ -10.59%
64 NW /76 /0 /-10.59%
65 Stanford /76/ 3/ -14.12%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (5 year) and also includes school name / total 5 year class size / number of 2018 and 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 5 Year Wash Out Rate
​

1 Wash St /131/ 3/ 20.47%
2 S.Car /129/ 1/ 20.47%
3 Purdue /125/ 1/ 16.71%
4 Georgia /129/ 6 /15.76%
5 Texas /129 /7 /14.82%
6 Tenn /126/ 4/ 14.82%
7 Iowa St /123/ 2/ 13.88%
8 Tex A&M /126/ 5/ 13.88%
9 V. Tech /123/ 3 /12.94%
10 Utah /120/ 0 /12.94%
11 UVA /119/ 0 /12.00%
12 Ole Miss /123 /5 /11.06%
13 TCU /118/ 0/ 11.06%
14 Oregon /119/ 1/ 11.06%
15 Minnesota /118/ 0 /11.06%
16 Illinois /117/ 0/ 10.12%
17 Kentucky /117 /1/ 9.18%
18 WVU /117 1/ 9.18%
19 Missouri /117/ 1 /9.18%
20 Alabama /127/ 12 /8.24%
21 Indiana /116/ 1/ 8.24%
22 Rutgers /115/ 0 /8.24%
23 Syracuse/ 115/ 0/ 8.24%
24 Arkansas /115/ 1/ 7.29%
25 Miss St /115 /1 /7.29%
26 Mich /117/ 4 /6.35%
27 Oklahoma/ 124/ 11/ 6.35%
28 Cal /113 /0/ 6.35%
29 LSU/ 122 /10 /5.41%
30 Colorado /113 /1 /5.41%
31 Nebraska /114 /2 /5.41%
32 Baylor /112 /0 /5.41%
33 Oregon St /113 /1/ 5.41%
34 USC /116 /4/ 5.41%
35 Auburn /119/ 7 /5.41%
36 Ariz /112/ 0/ 5.41%
37 Georgia Tech /112/ 0/ 5.41%
38 NC St /115 /4 /4.47%
39 Notre Dame/ 116 /6 /3.53%
40 N. Car /112 /3/ 2.59%
41 Wake Forest /111/ 2/ 2.59%
42 Maryland /110/ 2/ 1.65%
43 Okla St /110 /2 /1.65%
44 Louisville /111/ 3 /1.65%
45 Kansas /109/ 1/ 1.65%
46 UCLA /113 /6 /0.71%
47 Iowa /113 /6 /0.71%
48 K State /110/ 3 /0.71%
49 Mich St /108 /1 /0.71%
50 Penn St /113 /6 /0.71%
51 Florida /114 /8/ -0.24%
52 Ohio St /114 /9/ -1.18%
53 BC /105 /1 /-2.12%
54 Ariz St/ 107 /4 /-3.06%
55 Pitt /105 /3 /-4.00%
56 FSU /111 /9/ -4.00%
57 Texas Tech /103 /2/ -4.94%
58 Wisconsin /102/ 2/ -5.88%
59 Vandy/ 101/ 1/ -5.88%
60 Washington /103/ 3/ -5.88%
61 Clemson/ 107 /8/ -6.82%
62 Miami /105/ 7/ -7.76%
63 Duke/ 99/ 2 /-8.71%
64 NW /96/ 0/ -9.65%
65 Stanford /98/ 7/ -14.35%

The list below is by the Wash Out Rank (10 year) and also includes school name / total 10 year class size / number of 2013 trough 2019 early NFL draft entrants / 10 Year Wash Out Rate

1 Wash St /254 /5 /17.18%​

2 Iowa St /248/ 3/ 15.29%
3 Tenn /257/ 13/ 14.82%
4 S.Car/ 251/ 9/ 13.88%
5 Kentucky/ 244/ 3/ 13.41%
6 Ole Miss /250/ 10 /12.94%
7 Alabama /255/ 15/ 12.94%
8 Syracuse /244/ 4/ 12.94%
9 Arkansas /246/ 7/ 12.47%
10 Ariz /241/ 3/ 12.00%
11 Georgia /248/ 12/ 11.06%
12 Indiana /243/ 7/ 11.06%
13 Texas Tech /239/ 4/ 10.59%
14 Miss St /240 /6/ 10.12%
15 Auburn /250/ 16/ 10.12%
16 Purdue /235/ 2/ 9.65%
17 V. Tech /239/ 6/ 9.65%
18 WVU /238/ 5/ 9.65%
19 Minnesota /233/ 1 9.18%
20 Baylor /238/ 6/ 9.18%
21 Tex A&M /245/ 14/ 8.71%
22 TCU /235/ 4/ 8.71%
23 Okla St/ 237/ 6/ 8.71%
24 Texas /241/ 11/ 8.24%
25 Illinois /231/ 1 /8.24%
26 Oregon St /234/ 4/ 8.24%
27 Missouri/ 235/ 6/ 7.76%
28 Utah /233/ 5 /7.29%
29 UVA /229 /2 /6.82%
30 Rutgers /232/ 5/ 6.82%
31 Oklahoma /247/ 20 /6.82%
32 Mich /233 /7/ 6.35%
33 NC St /233/ 8/ 5.88%
34 Iowa /230/ 6/ 5.41%
35 Colorado /226/ 3/ 4.94%
36 Kansas /225/ 2/ 4.94%
37 Ariz St /228/ 7/ 4.00%
38 Oregon /227/ 7/ 3.53%
39 Miami /234 /15 /3.06%
40 Washington /230/ 12 /2.59%
41 Nebraska /221/ 5 /1.65%
42 Vandy /219/ 4/ 1.18%
43 Wake Forest /216/ 2/ 0.71%
44 K State /219/ 5/ 0.71%
45 LSU /249/ 37/ -0.24%
46 Maryland /217/ 5/ -0.24%
47 Louisville /220/ 8/ -0.24%
48 FSU/ 239/ 27/ -0.24%
49 Pitt /216/ 5/ -0.71%
50 N. Car /219/ 10/ -1.65%
51 UCLA /225/ 16/ -1.65%
52 Mich St /217/ 8/ -1.65%
53 Georgia Tech /207/ 0/ -2.59%
54 Florida /236/ 29/ -2.59%
55 BC /209/ 2 /-2.59%
56 Notre Dame /224 /18 -3.06%
57 Ohio St /232 /26 /-3.06%
58 Cal /214/ 12/ -4.94%
59 Wisconsin /208/ 6/ -4.94%
60 USC /219/ 19/ -5.88%
61 Clemson /224/ 24/ -5.88%
62 Duke /200/ 2/ -6.82%
63 Penn St /208/ 14/ -8.71%
64 NW /184/ 1/ -13.88%
65 Stanford/ 193/ 18/ -17.65%

I do believe that you’re point could have been made in 2 or 3 sentences. Even if they were compound complex ones.

 

[GarrettFildman]

2+2=4 is fine.
One would even say it is "correct".

Saying that since 2+2=4, the Second Law of Thermodynamics is proven, is quite another.


But, alas. I may as well spend these seconds 'splaining Quantum Physics to my cat.

I have taken Quantum at the undergrad and graduate level. Go ahead, I'm listening.

 

[GarrettFildman]

I do believe that you’re point could have been made in 2 or 3 sentences. Even if they were compound complex ones.

Thomas, my point was to share the data. I'm not trying to score a point. or make a case for something. I'm simply showing data that is sorted by school so that others can draw their own conclusions. What I am hoping is that some posters can look at the data and provide their take away. I suppose there are not many on this board that care to analyze things in such detail.

 

[PSUSignore]

You're trying very hard to be the John Urschel of BWI but I don't think very many of us are listening. Maybe read the room a bit better.

 

[Art]

You're trying very hard to be the John Urschel of BWI but I don't think very many of us are listening. Maybe read the room a bit better.

Maybe nobody is listening because none of it means shit.

 

[lw37]

I have taken Quantum at the undergrad and graduate level. Go ahead, I'm listening.

I almost once bought a VW Quantum but wasn’t sure where to find a Quantum mechanic. So I got the Honda.

 

[anon_xdc8rmuek44eq]

I think this is interesting but ‘wash out’ shouldn’t apply to kids who leave early for the NFL.

 

[Thomas1945]

I think this is interesting but ‘wash out’ shouldn’t apply to kids who leave early for the NFL.

I agree, “ self processed “ seems more acceptable.

 

[GarrettFildman]

You're trying very hard to be the John Urschel of BWI but I don't think very many of us are listening. Maybe read the room a bit better.

You are likely correct. In my observations thus far it seems that most want to just bicker back and forth over gut ideas without having any quantifiable or other logical support for those ideas.

For example, I have heard people say Michigan processes players. The data seems to support that although they probably didn't before Harbaugh according to the data. I have also heard that the SEC does. Well, they do but not much more than others. Who knew Washington St was the leader in taking more recruits than they could keep for almost a decade? I didn't until I saw the data. Who knew LSU had significantly more early NFL draft entrants than Alabama over the last decade? I would have guessed Alabama had more until I saw the data.

I think this is interesting but ‘wash out’ shouldn’t apply to kids who leave early for the NFL.

Midnighter, I agree. That is why I subtracted the number of early NFL entrants from the sum of the class sizes. That way those kids are not contributing to a wash out rate.

 

[Thomas1945]

Is a quantum physics major more challenging than a parks, recreation and tourism management major? Asking for a much younger friend.

 

[GarrettFildman]

Is a quantum physics major more challenging than a parks, recreation and tourism management major? Asking for a much younger friend.

It wasn't my major but particularly at the grad level I found the course to be challenging and a bit humbling.

 

[PearlSUJam]

You're trying very hard to be the John Urschel of BWI but I don't think very many of us are listening. Maybe read the room a bit better.

We already have one @Count_von_Count. Any other is an imposter(or the same person with a different handle).

 

[Art]

I think this is interesting but ‘wash out’ shouldn’t apply to kids who leave early for the NFL.

You might think it's interesting, but who of any importance is paying attention? Barbour? Recruits? If so, only in the most superficial way. Try putting a table of statistics in front of them and explain what they mean

 

[Thomas1945]

It wasn't my major but particularly at the grad level I found the course to be challenging and a bit humbling.

You sound like a really nice person and very dedicated to research and accuracy. But I think you need to work on your sarcasm and attempted humor detection in your spare time.

 

[GarrettFildman]

How many JuCos in each of those teams' history?
D'ya think that would be an impactful parameter..... based on the methods of your "analysis"? (Go ahead, think about it for a moment...….)



[Here is a little spoiler:
That little piece of information would - I am guessing - completely reverse your "wash out rankings" vav Washington State. A little piece of information that folks who follow CFB - and CFB recruiting - woulda' known WITHOUT the Hieroglyphics and Chinese Calculus you went through for no purpose]

That is constructive. I looked through the last few years and they seem to get 4 or 5 per year and are one of the most reliant on JUCOs. Assuming that their eligibility is reduced by a year or two, it would decrease their washout rate to probably about 15% (I threw a few years worth of Wash St JUCO data into the data set for a moment with the assumption of each JUCO having 2 years of eligibility). If applied to all schools, I think Wash St would likely still come out close to the top of the list if not still at the top.

It would take awhile to account for all JUCOs in the data and infinitely longer to account for the exact eligibility of each JUCO since it varies. So I'll accept that that there are some things that the data set cannot account for in its current state. I also have stated that I don't attempt to account for 5th or 6th year of eligibility. I simply accept that some schools by virtue of their negative wash out rate are likely to rely more heavily on redshirting.

But I appreciate constructive criticism of the data set shortcoming of not accounting for JUCOs which would decrease the washout rate of many schools by 0 to about 5% or so depending on how reliant they are on JUCOs. That is better than simply being upset that I posted a summary of a data set.

I am more in search of what we can learn by actually investigating relationships such as performance relative to recruiting class average, NFL draft selections relative to recruiting classes star power, and in this data set, how many recruits are getting processed, injured, or moved on in some capacity systematically over a number of years.

 

[Ski]

It wasn't my major but particularly at the grad level I found the course to be challenging and a bit humbling.

If you are looking for humble, you came to the wrong place.....