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Updated: Where we stand with Recruits 8/10

bmw199

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Apr 10, 2013
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Update: I wasn’t going to do one until the end of the week having just done one on Thursday but today was busy and events may unravel quickly this week. Recapping the other threads: Pryts visited this weekend and retweeted a friend’s tweet that Canyon pizza was the pizza for them. Bell’s Greek pizza is my 2 AM go to in State College but whatever gets him is fine with me. Either way he is now all the way back up to Commit Watch. Dioubate made headlines by canceling his visits down south and is choosing between OSU, Rutgers, and Penn State. Being that he’s been to PSU the most and travel concerns are a big deal to him, I feel really good about this. His team starts practice Wednesday and it is possible he announces prior to that.

Nixon will be in Auburn this weekend and has said after that he would decide if he would announce or take officials too. There was a lot of back and forth on whether he was close to a decision or whether he would take officials previously, so we should know after this weekend. I think it is a good sign since most experts think he is a PSU lean at the moment, that he may already be confident enough to decide. On Thursday almost every update wasn’t good so this is a great way to start the week. Unfortunately no good news on Ferns. Unless he gets back on campus within the next two weeks I think he’s lost to WVU. He picked up some important Crystal Balls at the end of last week. Wheeler should be picking Pitt within the hour. Which of course will be a spectacle on KDKA (Reason enough to be glad I don't live in Pittsburgh). They’ll say 140 times that he had a PSU offer but will conveniently forget to mention that it was no longer commitable. Hamlin is visiting Pitt tonight too, I don’t know if that is a related story or not.

You’ll notice the new category of “Former Interest”. This is to separate out the guys that we lost interest in from the guys that lost interest in us that we would still possibly take if they changed their minds. I should mention that I still believe that Valentin would commit on the spot if we he offered. I doubt numbers will allow that. I now believe this class ends at 24 with 6 more from the 9 that make up my top 3 categories (obviously the 6 in the first two categories would be ideal, I think we’re more likely to get Hudson than Fuller).

Commit Watch:
4* WR Nixon, 4* DL Dioubate, 4* S Pryts, 4/3* OLB Hansford

Very Good Chance:
4* CB Hamlin, 4* ATH Fuller

In The Battle:
4* LB Ferns, 4/3* G Valentin, 3* S Hudson

Work Left To Do:
5* DT Gary

Have To Get Really Lucky:
4* WR Diggs, 4* DE Smith, 4* OT Williams, 4* OG Davis, 4* TE Upshur, 4* WR Corley

Former Interest:
3* OT Niang, 3* DT Kamara, 3* DT Wheeler, JC DT Chavis

My opinion on where we stand with recruits based on rumors, where the coaching staff has made serious effort, offers, tweets (sometimes) and gut feeling. My categories(and their meanings) are Commit Watch (changed from Locks as to not offend recruiting gods), Very good chance(we sit very well with the recruit and are either the leader or perceived leader), In the Battle(We have a good shot and are equal to others or just slightly behind), Work left to do(there is another perceived leader or little information known on recruits intentions), Have to get really lucky(small chance to little to none), and Former Interst(players that Penn State was previously interested in that most likely no longer have commitable offers).
 
Hamlin was at Pitt practice today. That may sound good for them, but once he sees their level of defensive talent, perhaps not. We'll see.
Hamlin is always at Pitt "practice" he can literally see campus from his high school haha
 
Update: I wasn’t going to do one until the end of the week having just done one on Thursday but today was busy and events may unravel quickly this week. Recapping the other threads: Pryts visited this weekend and retweeted a friend’s tweet that Canyon pizza was the pizza for them. Bell’s Greek pizza is my 2 AM go to in State College but whatever gets him is fine with me. Either way he is now all the way back up to Commit Watch. Dioubate made headlines by canceling his visits down south and is choosing between OSU, Rutgers, and Penn State. Being that he’s been to PSU the most and travel concerns are a big deal to him, I feel really good about this. His team starts practice Wednesday and it is possible he announces prior to that.

Nixon will be in Auburn this weekend and has said after that he would decide if he would announce or take officials too. There was a lot of back and forth on whether he was close to a decision or whether he would take officials previously, so we should know after this weekend. I think it is a good sign since most experts think he is a PSU lean at the moment, that he may already be confident enough to decide. On Thursday almost every update wasn’t good so this is a great way to start the week. Unfortunately no good news on Ferns. Unless he gets back on campus within the next two weeks I think he’s lost to WVU. He picked up some important Crystal Balls at the end of last week. Wheeler should be picking Pitt within the hour. Which of course will be a spectacle on KDKA (Reason enough to be glad I don't live in Pittsburgh). They’ll say 140 times that he had a PSU offer but will conveniently forget to mention that it was no longer commitable. Hamlin is visiting Pitt tonight too, I don’t know if that is a related story or not.

You’ll notice the new category of “Former Interest”. This is to separate out the guys that we lost interest in from the guys that lost interest in us that we would still possibly take if they changed their minds. I should mention that I still believe that Valentin would commit on the spot if we he offered. I doubt numbers will allow that. I now believe this class ends at 24 with 6 more from the 9 that make up my top 3 categories (obviously the 6 in the first two categories would be ideal, I think we’re more likely to get Hudson than Fuller).

Commit Watch:
4* WR Nixon, 4* DL Dioubate, 4* S Pryts, 4/3* OLB Hansford

Very Good Chance:
4* CB Hamlin, 4* ATH Fuller

In The Battle:
4* LB Ferns, 4/3* G Valentin, 3* S Hudson

Work Left To Do:
5* DT Gary

Have To Get Really Lucky:
4* WR Diggs, 4* DE Smith, 4* OT Williams, 4* OG Davis, 4* TE Upshur, 4* WR Corley

Former Interest:
3* OT Niang, 3* DT Kamara, 3* DT Wheeler, JC DT Chavis

My opinion on where we stand with recruits based on rumors, where the coaching staff has made serious effort, offers, tweets (sometimes) and gut feeling. My categories(and their meanings) are Commit Watch (changed from Locks as to not offend recruiting gods), Very good chance(we sit very well with the recruit and are either the leader or perceived leader), In the Battle(We have a good shot and are equal to others or just slightly behind), Work left to do(there is another perceived leader or little information known on recruits intentions), Have to get really lucky(small chance to little to none), and Former Interst(players that Penn State was previously interested in that most likely no longer have commitable offers).

Excellent work sir.

I mean that.
 
Valentin has no PSU offer so right now I would consider him out of the battle.
 
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Wheeler has committed to his fallback school, so he should be removed from the list......
 
Wheeler should be picking Pitt within the hour. Which of course will be a spectacle on KDKA (Reason enough to be glad I don't live in Pittsburgh). They’ll say 140 times that he had a PSU offer but will conveniently forget to mention that it was no longer commitable.


Wheeler has committed to his fallback school, so he should be removed from the list......
I posted prior to his commitment. He'll be off next time.
 
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You do an awesome job and I appreciate it. However, I am not sure Gary even belongs on the list as he never mentions PSU and certainly is not visiting any time soon. Don't really mean to be a complainer as I like the effort.
 
I'm not sure I'd move Pryts that far up the list just yet. It was great that he was on campus but I still think we're behind other schools right now. Things are heading in a more positive direction, though.

Agree completely on Dioubate

My confidence re: Nixon is also much higher-- Georgia got a 5th receiver so I suspect it's a PSU/Auburn battle.

Ferns is interesting. Other than folks with no inside info, the Ferns camp has been incredibly quiet. My guess is he winds up with his brother at WVU but again, I have nothing really reliable to support that opinion.

A lot of good news, though, thanks for the update BMW.
 
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I do love that Wheeler committed to Pitt tonight and it's possible we add Dioubate tomorrow or Wednesday. LOL
 
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You do an awesome job and I appreciate it. However, I am not sure Gary even belongs on the list as he never mentions PSU and certainly is not visiting any time soon. Don't really mean to be a complainer as I like the effort.
LOL, it's ok. Every week someone tells me that. I've been pretty stubborn on keeping him where he is until the season. We have his friend Dwumfour and if we win games it's one I really believe we can get back in. He's been to the last two white outs and both times had a great time (who didn't), so I think it is still wait and see until the season. Certainly Michigan and the southern schools are in better position at the moment.
 
great job, good format change with the former interest category.

Some big fish left in the water with a handful of ships left, need to close strong.
 
I'm not sure I'd move Pryts that far up the list just yet. It was great that he was on campus but I still think we're behind other schools right now. Things are heading in a more positive direction, though.

I would. Sean Fitz and an OSU writer just CBed Pryts to PSU. Wouldn't be surprised to see a commit by the end of the week.
 
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Looking at pictures of Carter recently posted, I think we have another DT already in uniform. Any accurate size/weight known for the young man? That makes Dioubate a Strong Side DE (yesss!)
:):):):):):)
 
Looking at pictures of Carter recently posted, I think we have another DT already in uniform. Any accurate size/weight known for the young man? That makes Dioubate a Strong Side DE (yesss!)
:):):):):):)

GOPSUSPORTS roster lists him at 6'4" 271LBs, bigger than Zettel was when he was alternating between DE and DT as a redshirt freshman and redshirt soph. The staff has already commented that at least one of the true frosh "DE's" could get some PT as a DT this year if they don't redshirt.
 
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Update: I wasn’t going to do one until the end of the week having just done one on Thursday but today was busy and events may unravel quickly this week. Recapping the other threads: Pryts visited this weekend and retweeted a friend’s tweet that Canyon pizza was the pizza for them. Bell’s Greek pizza is my 2 AM go to in State College but whatever gets him is fine with me. Either way he is now all the way back up to Commit Watch. Dioubate made headlines by canceling his visits down south and is choosing between OSU, Rutgers, and Penn State. Being that he’s been to PSU the most and travel concerns are a big deal to him, I feel really good about this. His team starts practice Wednesday and it is possible he announces prior to that.

Nixon will be in Auburn this weekend and has said after that he would decide if he would announce or take officials too. There was a lot of back and forth on whether he was close to a decision or whether he would take officials previously, so we should know after this weekend. I think it is a good sign since most experts think he is a PSU lean at the moment, that he may already be confident enough to decide. On Thursday almost every update wasn’t good so this is a great way to start the week. Unfortunately no good news on Ferns. Unless he gets back on campus within the next two weeks I think he’s lost to WVU. He picked up some important Crystal Balls at the end of last week. Wheeler should be picking Pitt within the hour. Which of course will be a spectacle on KDKA (Reason enough to be glad I don't live in Pittsburgh). They’ll say 140 times that he had a PSU offer but will conveniently forget to mention that it was no longer commitable. Hamlin is visiting Pitt tonight too, I don’t know if that is a related story or not.

You’ll notice the new category of “Former Interest”. This is to separate out the guys that we lost interest in from the guys that lost interest in us that we would still possibly take if they changed their minds. I should mention that I still believe that Valentin would commit on the spot if we he offered. I doubt numbers will allow that. I now believe this class ends at 24 with 6 more from the 9 that make up my top 3 categories (obviously the 6 in the first two categories would be ideal, I think we’re more likely to get Hudson than Fuller).

Commit Watch:
4* WR Nixon, 4* DL Dioubate, 4* S Pryts, 4/3* OLB Hansford

Very Good Chance:
4* CB Hamlin, 4* ATH Fuller

In The Battle:
4* LB Ferns, 4/3* G Valentin, 3* S Hudson

Work Left To Do:
5* DT Gary

Have To Get Really Lucky:
4* WR Diggs, 4* DE Smith, 4* OT Williams, 4* OG Davis, 4* TE Upshur, 4* WR Corley

Former Interest:
3* OT Niang, 3* DT Kamara, 3* DT Wheeler, JC DT Chavis

My opinion on where we stand with recruits based on rumors, where the coaching staff has made serious effort, offers, tweets (sometimes) and gut feeling. My categories(and their meanings) are Commit Watch (changed from Locks as to not offend recruiting gods), Very good chance(we sit very well with the recruit and are either the leader or perceived leader), In the Battle(We have a good shot and are equal to others or just slightly behind), Work left to do(there is another perceived leader or little information known on recruits intentions), Have to get really lucky(small chance to little to none), and Former Interst(players that Penn State was previously interested in that most likely no longer have commitable offers).

What about Betiku? Looked like a battle between UCLA, PSU, ND, FSU, TAMU with USC looking to sneak in.
 
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This class is already loaded. If we land Pryts, Dioubate, and maybe Fuller/Hamlin? My god.
 
If that happens maybe Hamlin is not far behind?
My "guess" on Ferns is that he grew up OSU, which means anti PSU :) I do not know that, I just think it might be a factor?
 
If that happens maybe Hamlin is not far behind?
My "guess" on Ferns is that he grew up OSU, which means anti PSU :) I do not know that, I just think it might be a factor?

No I think the appeal of playing with his brother is just too good
 
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No I think the appeal of playing with his brother is just too good
Where they grew up is only an hour and half from Morgantown. I would venture to guess they have a lot of other friends there too. Unless we execute a coup similar to Pryts like this past weekend and get him on campus in the next two weeks, I think he's gone.
 
Landing Dioubate and Pryts would solidify dominating the state. Give us 1,2,&4 and 5 of the top 9 (the others being 6 & 9) with a great chance at 3 too. After last year getting 2-7 and 8 of the top 12. Now Pitt may get Mathews, Pugh, and Coleman at 11,12,&13 who are all nice players but a trend is definitely clear that Penn State will dominated the top 10 in PA and Pitt will get to pick from 10-20. Minus a few outliers.
 
LOL, it's ok. Every week someone tells me that. I've been pretty stubborn on keeping him where he is until the season. We have his friend Dwumfour and if we win games it's one I really believe we can get back in. He's been to the last two white outs and both times had a great time (who didn't), so I think it is still wait and see until the season. Certainly Michigan and the southern schools are in better position at the moment.

I honestly believe its a race between auburn/lsu/clemson....i never understood all the talk about michigan because of his coach going there hell did Gary even play more than 1 season for him?
 
I honestly believe its a race between auburn/lsu/clemson....i never understood all the talk about michigan because of his coach going there hell did Gary even play more than 1 season for him?
He did not play for him for more than year, and he even said as much the one time he answered questions about it. Conventional wisdom on most of the recruiting sites though is that they are still up there for him, which is why I mentioned it. About a year ago though his top schools were UM, OSU, PSU and Rutgers. So a lot has changed with southern schools gaining tons of ground but I don't think the change is over and I think there will be more developments this fall.
 
Anyone know the success rate for crystal ball predictions? The one I know of this year was Giliken where he was 100% to Georgia...hmm, doesn't give me a lot of confidence in those CBs LOL.

I'm also wondering what effect, if any, D.Kelly's dismissal will have on this class. Given all the LBs were' pursuing in the 17' class, maybe we save some ships this year? Franklin has to, at some point, even things out so he doesn't have small classes every 4 years or so.

Was really hoping for a bat signal tonight, anyone else checking every couple of hours (or less) to see if there's any news?
 
Anyone know the success rate for crystal ball predictions? The one I know of this year was Giliken where he was 100% to Georgia...hmm, doesn't give me a lot of confidence in those CBs LOL.

I'm also wondering what effect, if any, D.Kelly's dismissal will have on this class. Given all the LBs were' pursuing in the 17' class, maybe we save some ships this year? Franklin has to, at some point, even things out so he doesn't have small classes every 4 years or so.

Was really hoping for a bat signal tonight, anyone else checking every couple of hours (or less) to see if there's any news?
CB's really depend and who is CBing is important. If you follow it you can generally tell how confident you should be. With both of these guys I'm pretty confident.

My thoughts on Scholarships based on this staffs brief history and what will help us win the most:
  • There are 70 guys now on the roster with 2016 eligibility (*not counting Walker*, I think his was a one year schollie). That's room for 15 in 2016 right now.
  • The most likely guys leaving to make room are RS JRs. Some of them would be big losses (AJ, Wartman-White, Lynch) and others are buried on the depth chart. There are 12 of them and I think we could see 6-8 move on. There will probably be 2-3 other players that either transfer or for some other reason aren't with the program. We should easily get to 24 schollies for 2016 which is what I've predicted for some time.
  • 2017 gets way more interesting bc there are 53 guys with 2017 eligibility. Add in the 24 from 2016 I say we take and you are at 77 of the 85 for 2017. That means only 8 schollies. If you look at the 2016 RS JRs (currently RS SOs) though it is hard to imagine all of them staying, or maybe any. We are talking Breneman, Hamilton, Nelson, Mahon, Sickels, Cothren and Cothran. I severly doubt any of the first five stay with how big of contributors some have already been and how big all of them are expected to be over the next two years (2015 and 2016 season). That gets you to 12-14 schollies in 2017. Then there are the FR contributors from last year. I really doubt Allen stays 4 years and Campbell, Haley, Godwin, Blacknell, and Cabinda are all possibilities to leave after their true JR season for the NFL. Obviously not all will be ready and not all will leave but maybe 1 or 2. That gives you 13-16 schollies in 2017. Add in a few surprise departures and we should be around 18-20 in 2017.
Surprises happen, staying 5 years will be a rarity in the coming years, and with more high profile recruits guys leaving after 3 years will become more likely. No reason we shouldn't have between 20-25 every year. I still hope and think Hack will stay for 2016.
 
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CB's really depend and who is CBing is important. If you follow it you can generally tell how confident you should be. With both of these guys I'm pretty confident.

My thoughts on Scholarships based on this staffs brief history and what will help us win the most:
  • There are 70 guys now on the roster with 2016 eligibility (*not counting Walker*, I think his was a one year schollie). That's room for 15 in 2016 right now.
  • The most likely guys leaving to make room are RS JRs. Some of them would be big losses (AJ, Wartman-White, Lynch) and others are buried on the depth chart. There are 12 of them and I think we could see 6-8 move on. There will probably be 2-3 other players that either transfer or for some other reason aren't with the program. We should easily get to 24 schollies for 2016 which is what I've predicted for some time.
  • 2017 gets way more interesting bc there are 53 guys with 2017 eligibility. Add in the 24 from 2016 I say we take and you are at 77 of the 85 for 2017. That means only 8 schollies. If you look at the 2016 RS JRs (currently RS SOs) though it is hard to imagine all of them staying, or maybe any. We are talking Breneman, Hamilton, Nelson, Mahon, Sickels, Cothren and Cothran. I severly doubt any of the first five stay with how big of contributors some have already been and how big all of them are expected to be over the next two years (2015 and 2016 season). That gets you to 12-14 schollies in 2017. Then there are the FR contributors from last year. I really doubt Allen stays 4 years and Campbell, Haley, Godwin, Blacknell, and Cabinda are all possibilities to leave after their true JR season for the NFL. Obviously not all will be ready and not all will leave but maybe 1 or 2. That gives you 13-16 schollies in 2017. Add in a few surprise departures and we should be around 18-20 in 2017.
Surprises happen, staying 5 years will be a rarity in the coming years, and with more high profile recruits guys leaving after 3 years will become more likely. No reason we shouldn't have between 20-25 every year. I still hope and think Hack will stay for 2016.

Everything I have heard from the coaching grapevine is that Hack is done after this year. With all of the punishment he took last year the conventional wisdom seems to be he will not risk his future any further especially if there is first round money involved. Hard to argue with that.
 
I hear that Meyer tells his recruits that they will play for 3 years, max. Nobody plays more than 3 years. If you are still playing after 3 and not good enough to go to the NFL, then it's good bye. In essence, no 5th yr seniors, period.

Of course, they are all 4-5 star recruits, so they think they'll all be in the NFL by then, anyhow.
 
I hear that Meyer tells his recruits that they will play for 3 years, max. Nobody plays more than 3 years. If you are still playing after 3 and not good enough to go to the NFL, then it's good bye. In essence, no 5th yr seniors, period.

Of course, they are all 4-5 star recruits, so they think they'll all be in the NFL by then, anyhow.


This is actually a really interesting recruiting concept when you think about it. In some ways it encourages players to at least try to be on track to grad in 4 years. Now I'm not saying that this is how UM is playing it but just as a recruiting concept, I find it interesting. That way if a kid after 4 years is not in the 2 deep, they wouldn't have to renew his scholarship, and hopefully he wouldn't have to much more left to graduate. Maybe they would just need that last summer? Who knows, if he catches crap about it from HS coaches or parents, he can say, hey I told you up front that that was the case.

Not saying we should adopt this strategy.
 
I don't think any kid has to be guaranteed a 5 yr scholarship. 4 years, yes. RS and then 3 years, that is OK. Start as a freshman, then graduate and/or go to the NFL after your junior year. You are on campus, essentially, for 4 full years by then anyhow.

At Ohio State, if you start as a freshman, you are probably getting drafted after your junior year. Not every school can say that.
 
Correct, no kid has to be guaranteed 5 years, and unless the school promises differently, each scholarship is just a one year renewable, so a coach could basically not renew a kid. Now they could take some heat for it, but sadly in this current world of big time college football, it's the way it is.

Like I said, if the kid is smart they would try to be on track in 4 years anyway. With the summer sessions most kids should be able to do that if they don't have to repeat fails, or drastically change majors.
 
What does "Wheeler was no longer committable" mean?



He had an offer, but the team was looking for a set number of players in the class at that position. When the coach gets that number the other kids that also had offers at that position basically do not have offers any longer. Most here believe when CJF got the there other DT commits that the base class of DTs was full (Wheeler no longer had an offer) but that CJF would still take another premier talent DT/DE such as Diobate, Gary, or Arrington's adopted son from our west.
 
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