Updated: Where were stand with Recruits 7/1
- Thread starter bmw199
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He had a great visit but I didn't hear enough to move him up. And the other three OLB tweeners are higher on us right now. It'll be interesting to see how it shakes out at that position. It's going to be like DT last week. One will commit and then it will be go or get off for whoever wants the other spot.
The Smiths r among the DB's referred to above. Good point about other potential early NFL exits. I really think CJF will take 2 LB's and at least one WR. With the talent of the current WR group he has he realizes that the potential for NFL exits after 3 years must be mitigated by a steady influx of talent at WR.
The crystal balls are often WAY wrong, but if true, I can bring out my old line.
Thank your BOT! At least, partially.
Thank your BOT! At least, partially.
His visit there isn't until July 24th, but it is not a great sign he's going back there. I haven't heard anything on him coming to the Lasch Bash (other than another poster in another thread claiming he was going). So yea, not looking so great at the moment. If he waits to decide during the year we may be able to get back in on him.
You just need to know which Crystal balls to look at and the timing. If you do that, most of the time you know where a kid may likely end up.
There is also a huge difference between rumors that Nordin broke off his relationship with Michigan (or vice versa) than Pryts scheduling a return visit to OSU, especially if he is coming back to PSU also. The CB movement for both means different things.
Most of the new crystal balls for Pryts are from the Buckeye folks. everyting a recruit visits there, they almost always change their crystall balls to OSU. Maybe it means something, or maybe it's just the Buckeye reporters doing what they always do....
CB's or not, there is some smoke to this. Yes things can change, but it doesn't appear as if PSU is leading right now.
Commit Watch: PK Nordin, DT Chavis
Strong Contender: DT Dioubate, LB Ferns, S/OLB Hudson, S Pryts, DE Betiku, OLB Brown, CB Hamlin
In the Mix: WR Smothers, WR Nixon, OL Adams, DT Wheeler, OLB Hansford, DE Toney, ATH Fuller
Longshot: DT Gary, OL Davis, TE Farrell, DT Campbell, WR Diggs, LB Bridges
Wildcards: OL Niang, DT Kamara, WR Patterson, WR Holloway, DT Tanielu
I believe PSU takes 1 JUCO DT and 1 more HS DT. Chavis is lining up to be the JUCO DT. Tanielu only sees a bump if Chavis goes elsewhere. PSU offered Dioubate earlier than Wheeler so I suspect that they project him higher, which means that Wheeler might be in a holding pattern. Likewise, I think that PSU will take 1 more OL. Zach Adams looks to be closer to a commit date than Niang, so Niang may be in a similar situation as Wheeler.
At WR, Nixon will probably dictate the pace. If indications are good at the Lasch Bash then Patterson and Holloway probably fade, otherwise they may see more attention. Smothers is primed for WVU.
Hansford may be trending upward and there could be a pinch at LB.
Upshur and Boudreaux are long gone as is probably Diggs and Davis.
My wishlist starts with a) Hudson, b) Nixon, c) Chavis, d) Betiku, and e) Hamlin. Hudson offers versatility as either a S/LB or even a switch to RB, plus could have some influence on Hamlin. And he lessens the need for Pryts if he is truly looking elsewhere. Nixon is obvious as WR is the only unaddressed area on offense and he is the staff's #1 target at WR from the beginning. Chavis comes in next as we need a DL ready to step in as backup next year and he is more primed that Dwumfour, Colon, or Jordan. Betiku is next just because of his potential to be another Shawn Oakman type DE, although we already have an excellent young cast of DEs. Hamlin rounds out the top five. Nordin could probably swap places with Hamlin on my list.
Strong Contender: DT Dioubate, LB Ferns, S/OLB Hudson, S Pryts, DE Betiku, OLB Brown, CB Hamlin
In the Mix: WR Smothers, WR Nixon, OL Adams, DT Wheeler, OLB Hansford, DE Toney, ATH Fuller
Longshot: DT Gary, OL Davis, TE Farrell, DT Campbell, WR Diggs, LB Bridges
Wildcards: OL Niang, DT Kamara, WR Patterson, WR Holloway, DT Tanielu
I believe PSU takes 1 JUCO DT and 1 more HS DT. Chavis is lining up to be the JUCO DT. Tanielu only sees a bump if Chavis goes elsewhere. PSU offered Dioubate earlier than Wheeler so I suspect that they project him higher, which means that Wheeler might be in a holding pattern. Likewise, I think that PSU will take 1 more OL. Zach Adams looks to be closer to a commit date than Niang, so Niang may be in a similar situation as Wheeler.
At WR, Nixon will probably dictate the pace. If indications are good at the Lasch Bash then Patterson and Holloway probably fade, otherwise they may see more attention. Smothers is primed for WVU.
Hansford may be trending upward and there could be a pinch at LB.
Upshur and Boudreaux are long gone as is probably Diggs and Davis.
My wishlist starts with a) Hudson, b) Nixon, c) Chavis, d) Betiku, and e) Hamlin. Hudson offers versatility as either a S/LB or even a switch to RB, plus could have some influence on Hamlin. And he lessens the need for Pryts if he is truly looking elsewhere. Nixon is obvious as WR is the only unaddressed area on offense and he is the staff's #1 target at WR from the beginning. Chavis comes in next as we need a DL ready to step in as backup next year and he is more primed that Dwumfour, Colon, or Jordan. Betiku is next just because of his potential to be another Shawn Oakman type DE, although we already have an excellent young cast of DEs. Hamlin rounds out the top five. Nordin could probably swap places with Hamlin on my list.
Some here blow off WR for this class. I see CJF taking at least one, but likely just one. What we don't know is if CJF would take one of the others before Nixon decides, and then whether or not he would still take Nixon for two WR's in the class.
Yes we could see multiple LB's commit in sequence, but it's not the same situation as there was at DT. There were many DT's that the staff had built relationships with given the great need for 3+ DT's in the class. At LB the situation seems different. Sure we need 1 or 2, but they seem to have a much smaller list of candidates, at least that we know of. Ferns, Brown, Hansford and Toney. I guess you could put Hudson here as well, but I see him really not counting against the 2 LB's that likely end up in the class.
Anyway, I agree with your comments. Chavis is the JC DT that the staff is going after. The kid from out west does not seem to be on the radar. If CJF does not get Chavis, I believe he waits for the mid-season to identify another potential JC DT for a late addition to the class, and if none are identified just goes with the young group, possibly playing one more of the true frosh (Carter....)
My reply is specifically for the OP as it appears he takes the time to understand other schoolss recruiting situations. If anyone is not interested in hearing about Michigan I suggest you ignore the rest of my post. I'm doing this simply to expand upon what the OP said about Michigan so that he has more detail when he evaluates what that means for PSU (e.g. kids PSU is after that might have an interest in Michigan as well).
I decided to respond because of your comment about Michigan being pretty much full. That is half correct. If you look at the kids that Michigan is strong with (either on top alone or along with a couple other schools...and there are a few more of these not mentioned in this thread because they are not of PSU interest) it appears that Michigan will run out of room before some even decide (and this is assuming they don't get all of them of course, just a good number of them). However:
1A) I would be surprised if we didn't have a couple/few decommitments. There are 3 that already come to mind as possible. One is a kid who committed before Harbaugh was hired and might be wavering because he's not sure how he fits. Another is a kid who the staff took as an "athlete" who is now starting to be a bit more insistent on what position he prefers...the staff might not agree. The last seems to have a "dream school" who hasn't offered and if they come calling later...btw...none of these kids are the totally off the radar camp offers so they will have options...and it's early July so it's highly likely that another kid or two (or 3) wavers before February...this is not to say they'll all decommit but as I said I would be surprised if all stuck.
1B) I won't make predictions on who but it is likely one or two (or 3) of the camp finds blows up (recruiting wise) during their senior year. Since we are talking kids who are from a 1000+ miles away from Ann Arbor it wouldn't be a shocker to see one (or two) stay closer to home if the locals come calling.
2) There are already some indications that the staff might get creative on who is technically a part of the 2016 class (the key number is getting to 85...not 25+3 which can be worked around). Of course you can have early entries (which we'll have room for) but there are other ways that aren't as seedy as you might think. One of the more interesting situations is the kid from Quebec. Because of the differences in school systems he actually could be reclassified as a 2017 or even a 2015. There is also speculation that a couple of kids have already been told that they might have to greyshirt (which is one reason I think there will be some decommits...a greyshirt doesn't sound bad, to the kid, if he doesn't have options...if options start presenting themselves then things change)...and before anyone jumps on this the speculation is around kids that are so raw right now they could benefit from a semester at a prep school.
3) I don't think the coaches even know exactly how much attrition to expect from now until the end of the year. Harbaugh's way of doing things is certainly different and there might be some who walk away because they don't feel like a cultural fit. And of course there will be some who walk away (or are booted) for the normal reasons but this could be more than usual because once the games start there will probably be more shifting in the depth chart than normal once the coaches see who steps up when it counts...our staff does not have a history with any of these kids so it will be a learning process. The number of kids Michigan is able to take could increase quickly.
4) I hate that I have to write this but I wouldn't be shocked if one or two recruits are simply told to go find another school. If you've ever read an offer letter (meaning from any school not specifically Michigan) the majority point out that the offer is conditional. Usually that is taken to mean keep your grades up and stay out of trouble. However, I hope this doesn't happen but I am not convinced it won't...I don't think Harbaugh telling a kid he hasn't progressed enough on the field to play at Michigan is out of the question. Now I don't see this as him saying the schollie is off the table but rather a strong suggestion that the kid would be better off elsewhere. I won't try to spin it and say it is all that different but...well I will sugarcoat it a bit...he is telling a kid that he might be happier elsewhere if his goal is to see the field...but if he really wants to come for other reasons (academics, social, etc.) he won't stop him...this is more of a common practice (at most if not all schools) once a kid has been on campus for a year or two but I can see JH doing it before...it will look bad (and I'd prefer we didn't do it) but I think in his mind he is doing the kid a favor.
So the net of this is that I think you are correct that numbers are playing a role on who Michigan is willing to take in the short term. It does appear the staff is starting to focus on a few keys and willing to currently pass on others (or simply not recruit them all that hard). However, don't be surprised if in the long run they take another look at some of those other players. My appoligies if I gave too much detail...just got the impression you like to be as informed as possible...
I personally don't think a new coach is necessarily forced to honor a commitment from an old coach. It's borderline in some eyes, maybe, but not mine. What if a coach knew he was going to get fired, so in order to get even he offered some substandard kids just to do it? I am not saying it ever happens, but I would not put it past some coaches. Probably not Hoke, but some are capable of that.
I saw those also. If so, we might need to develop a new strategy with regard to the recruitment of legacies whose fathers have strong feelings. It's unfortunate, but literally nothing could be done by the staff, their hands were tied, just like all of our hands were tied as fans.
Live to fight another day, and when the next legacy comes along, develop a stronger position regarding p.r. strategy, hell I don't know. It's like having an old relative who was a criminal, and your girlfriend finds out and won't marry you. What in gods name can you do about it?
Come on guys, it's not over yet. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!!?
