Football What will it take for PSU to make the CFP next season?
- Thread starter Richie O
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PAC12 or ACC refs officiating all our conference games.
This and we need to land some top WRs. Not sure if we have enough talent there to get it done yet. We are close.
The only position Penn State has not recruited good enough for the playoffs is defensive tackle. Until that changes I doubt they will ever get there, except when they add more playoff games.
I agree and would phrase it "field some top WRs", as I don't have much hope that PSU can land a #1 WR in the transfer portal for the 2023 season. A WR that had 40 catches for 700 yards in the MAC is unlikely to be PSU's best WR in 2023, let alone a playmaker that will catch 100+ yards of balls in the B10 championship game, or against UM and/or oh-high-ya. Hope I'm wrong on that.
It just seems that there is just as good a chance that one of the young PSU players that looked to be a talent when they were recruited by PSU has almost as good of a chance to perform at a high level in 2023 as the likely portal adds going forward.
Not that a solid WR or DT from the portal won't contribute and make the team better. But I find it hard to believe the yet to commit portal players will lead the team to the playoff. And believe it's more likely that the talent already on the team will surprise us by a couple of additional top playmakers emerging from the 2021 and 2022 classes.
JMO
IMO, the pieces are in place or nearly so -- maybe another player or two from the Portal.
To make it, beat one of Michigan/Ohio State and no other stumbles along the way.
On the field, Allar needs to be very good; I'm expecting the OL and running game to be very good, and the defense to be good also.
To make it, beat one of Michigan/Ohio State and no other stumbles along the way.
On the field, Allar needs to be very good; I'm expecting the OL and running game to be very good, and the defense to be good also.
Still speaking around the 3 success metrics, aren’t we. What it will take is what it has always taken, and not yet achieved: the 3 on-field success metrics for Penn State football. There are only 3, and they are THESE 3, and the 3 are as follows:
1. Beat UM
2. Beat OSU
3. Win the Big Ten championship.
you want PSU to make the 4 team playoff (and we all do)? Then PSU will need to achieve the 3 success metrics. Period, end of discussion. When will Nittany Nation face this? I’ve said it for years, and It has ALWAYS been the case - to make a 4 team playoff, Penn State has to:
1. Beat UM
2. Beat OSU
3. win the Big Ten championship.
We’ve not achieved 1-3, and thus have never made the playoffs.
The formula is there. An accurate QB (preferably with some mobility), time
To throw and WR’s/TEs who can get open. This prevents crowding the box, which creates an effective and consistent running game. The playoffs and high tier bowls more or less proved that this combo is unstoppable, even with a high level defense.
Bennett proved that accuracy is the most important skill for a QB and was Clifford’s largest deficiency. Hopefully Allar can step up in that area. The O-line improved but can still improve on pass protection, though the pieces are there. Running against a 7 man front will dramatically improve an already excellent running game.
So it comes down to the receivers. Getting open is more important than being a burner. I would take a high reception guy over a high TD guy, as the high reception guy shows he can get open and catch the ball. Obviously both are better. Having a receiving threat at TE helps a lot, as well as RBs who can catch the ball as well.
So significant but achievable step ups across each of those 3 areas. It will take 40+ points to win in this era.
To throw and WR’s/TEs who can get open. This prevents crowding the box, which creates an effective and consistent running game. The playoffs and high tier bowls more or less proved that this combo is unstoppable, even with a high level defense.
Bennett proved that accuracy is the most important skill for a QB and was Clifford’s largest deficiency. Hopefully Allar can step up in that area. The O-line improved but can still improve on pass protection, though the pieces are there. Running against a 7 man front will dramatically improve an already excellent running game.
So it comes down to the receivers. Getting open is more important than being a burner. I would take a high reception guy over a high TD guy, as the high reception guy shows he can get open and catch the ball. Obviously both are better. Having a receiving threat at TE helps a lot, as well as RBs who can catch the ball as well.
So significant but achievable step ups across each of those 3 areas. It will take 40+ points to win in this era.
Bingo , we need an 11-1 year at the minimum. 13-0 is much better. Losing the Big ten title game might knock us out of consideration.
Seems to be the position with the fewest gems. IMHO the big reason the SEC teams are tough to beat.
There are a number of things to have to happen to make the playoffs. We have to get over the hump against good teams. We haven't for a variety of reasons and the schedule looks like it is trending towards 2021 more than 2022. The biggest issue this year will be getting the offense humming with a largely immobile QB before we play Illinois. This requires a significant jump at receiver and on the O-line. We can't afford to play 11 on 11 within 15 yards of the scrimmage against Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State with an immobile quarterback and receivers that don't get open downfield. We fix those two things and Allar improves at a faster than average rate for a first time starter and the offense will be fine. The defense will be fine so long as we are playing with a lead or within a score if not. Otherwise, the same issues that have plagued Diaz his entire career will endure.
zero or one loss. We have to beat all the pretenders plus either tOSU or Michigan. Its that simple.
Generally agree, but I'd say in terms of QB play, awareness would be the most important skill, then accuracy. That's where Bennett really shined and the reason Smart was so critical of his play after the semi final game. We know Allar definitely has the arm strength, but in the limited time he played his accuracy didn't seem that great, and as far as awareness, he didn't seem as advanced as for example, Klubnick. If PSU has any chance of making a run at the playoffs, Allar is going to have make a big jump in his development. I'd bet that he will make that jump.
Have to win all the games we are favored, and must beat at least one of Michigan/ Ohio State to have a chance. It would help if we ended up Big Ten Champs.
I haven't watched much of GA until the last two games. I was surprised about his arm strength. He can certainly wing it. I feel like a QB has to have a minimum arm strength to hit the deep out and the 40 yard fly pattern. If they can't, Safeties will sit and take away the medium pass which will close down a ton of offensive opportunities.
After that, awareness, accuracy, decision making. When you look at a guy like TB, he gets rid of the ball so fast and almost never makes a mistake. Nobody I've ever seen can match him in looking at options 1, 2 and 3 and throwing the ball in under 4 seconds. Early in his career, when the Patriots were running those quick out screens like crazy, I heard he practiced getting the ball out of his hands until people chased him off the field. He would catch the ball and throw it without lining up the laces in order to get the ball out to the WR faster.
It helps when you TE and WR's are wide open. I have to say that they were anointed Stetson when I could have made all of those throws with the exception being the simultaneous catch TD. Those guys were WIDE EFFING open and far superior athletes.
Good point. The OLine was close this year, and should be there next year given everyone is back except Juice. DT is still a huge issue IMO. In order to get there and have a chance to win, you must be able to control both sides of the line of scrimmage.
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No question...DT and even to a certain extent, game wrecking DE's are a necessity. Ours are fine...but not great. I'm still questioning if the OL at this point is good enough to get over the hump...obviously to get to UGA level, or at least, Michigan at this point, every position needs an uptick, but OL especially. It's not an overly physical, mashing group. As Coach Seider has alluded to, when you have two RB's that can make people miss and win in the open field, it makes everyone look better. I think the jury is still out on Tengwall, Wallace, Nourzad as to their ability to be dominant in big moments -- I have major questions about that. Their job gets more difficult protecting for Allar, who obviously doesn't have the experience yet to command the huddle, read defenses pre snap, call out protections, etc. Cliff did that in his sleep.
There’s two ways - one is to run the table, the other is a slight back door but two things need to happen.
1. Win every non-UM/OSU game
2. Beat OSU and UM
3. In Playoff!
1. Win every non-UM/OSU game
2. Split OSU/UM
3. Very strong chance for playoff spot (2017, 2019,2022)
I think a one loss PSU is in the playoff in 2019 if we beat Minny in 2019. OU had a bad loss against an average KSU team, our loss would have been on the road to undefeated OSU. This year we are in if we beat OSU, taking their place. 2017 would be a toss up with Georgia if we beat a decent Sparty.
2016 we would have been in over OSU if we beat Pitt. We split OSU and UM.
An SEC, ACC, and Ohio State and Michigan meltdown. Penn State would have to go undefeated, and then maybe we will make it.
We should have a pretty dominating two deep Defensive End room next year with Chop, Isaac returning, Dennis-Sutton and Smith Vilbert out of the dog house. Vanover also played well at times this year and will have another year of strength and conditioning.
Izzard, Ellies, Beamon, Durant and Van den Berg all return with a lot of experience, but need to get bigger and stronger. The experiment with undersized quick DT's did not work real well against Michigan, and other teams were able to run the ball against us.
I think the OLine will dominate next year. The combination of experience, playing together and another year in the weight room should produce dividends. There was also a lot of depth developed this year, and we have three stud freshman, with possibly a fourth coming in to bolster the depth.
I like our overall talent on defense as a whole and up front but we really do not have a difference maker at end or tackle. What we have works against lesser teams but didn't work against UM and OSU. Offensively, the line is still another year from truly being an asset. They took a decent step forward this year but were far from good. Michigan proved that.
Overall, there are several positions where recruiting is not up to snuff. All three positions on the O-line, receiver, end and tackle. Maybe safety. We struck oil with Brisker and Brown but we have wasted a lot of scholarships at safety for not a lot in return beyond B&B. A move to an odd front would cover up a lot of warts but Diaz doesn't do that. Yurcich did give me hope that maybe he is learning to adjust this year by moving to 12 personnel which simultaneously helped the O-line and got an unproductive receiver off the field. That move strongly suggests we shouldn't expect much for the receivers on the roster.
Yup, J.T. Tuimoloau basically won the game against PSU for Ohio State.
Interior defensive linemen, run stopping front 7 players. Being able to control line of scrimmage with 3 or 4 linemen.
Not sure how you make the case that OLine recruiting is not up to snuff. Wallace, Wormley, Scruggs, Fashanu and Tengell were all rivals four star recruits. Shelton and Christ who played a lot this year were four star recruits, and Vega Loane while a three star drew raves from the staff and will be a future starter.
Add to that Four star Birchmeier and Williams coming in this year and I would say recruiting is not the issue if there is an issue. Strength and conditioning, coaching, development possibly could be argued as issues, but IMO there was stark improvement from last year and I expect another step forward from an experienced and deep group next year.
I will give you that DT recruiting is not up to snuff, but i think we are pretty solid at end considering the depth and youth at the position.
Good stuff...you hit the nail on the head with "Strength and conditioning, coaching, development." Our Oline recruiting, at least from the composite recruiting stars score (for what that's worth), has actually been very good as of late, but the performance has been suspect as a whole group. Individually, some guys are good, but not as a cohesive, physical unit. It just looks like when you glance at our OL compared to Michigan, UGA, and others, we just don't look that toned, intimidating or strong (I know that is super subjective), but just feels that way. After while, the things you mention, strength and conditioning, I feel have to play a hand in this. There has been way more than enough talent to not be stymied at the LOS so frequently vs Mich and other big games.
How did all those four star players look individually (or as a group) against Michigan? Stars are 90% nonsense.
I don't think that is the case at all. It is one thing to get a four-star kid, it is another to get five of them and see which ones pan out. The success of tOSU, AL, and GA is clearly based on their ability to go get just about any five and four-star kids they want. If one breaks a leg, one doesn't have the motivation and one knocks over a drug store you still have two more left. The difference in the top five teams and PSU, to me today, is depth at all positions.
They did not look very good, but the DLine looked worse. Let’s see how they do next year after another year of strength and conditioning as well as a full year of playing together under their belts. I certainly agree with what I believe is your main point, they need to be able to handle Michigan and Ohio State if we are ever going to be a threat to make and or win playoff games. All I am saying is that progress was made, and some depth was built. Let’s see what happens next year.
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Losing no more than 1 game. If we have 1 or fewer losses and win the Big Ten, then we are pretty much automatically in. If we have 1 loss only, but don't win the conference, we stand a great chance of making it, but would depend on how other conference play out.
