Currently 6 undefeated and 7 one loss power 5 teams. They also currently rank 2 loss Utah, K St, and LSU ahead of PSU. That's 16 teams.
For simplicity, I will assume that the undefeated teams remain 1 loss or less and ahead of us or even 2 losses and ahead. There is a chance 1 or 2 teams drop 2 or more remaining games and fall below us but looking at their schedules I'd assume probably 5 or 6 of those schools finish above a 10-2 PSU.
The 1 loss teams are a more interesting analysis.
Bama would have to lose to #15 LSU or #11 Ole Miss. I doubt either happens but if only 1 does then I think Bama probably still remains above a 10-2 PSU due to SEC bias.
Oregon still has #12 Utah and #24 Oregon St. and possibly their championship game opponent. It is quite possible they end up with 2 or 3 losses. I'd say maybe 50% chance they fall behind a 10-2 PSU.
USC still has #10 UCLA and Notre Dame along with a possible conference championship game. Again, I'd give them a 50% probability of dropping below us.
UCLA still has #9 USC and a shot at a conference championship game. Another coin flip for them dropping below us.
Ole Miss has #6 Alabama and two 5-3 SEC teams on their schedule. Probably 25% chance they remain above a 10-2 PSU.
Illinois has #4 Michigan, 3 loss Purdue, and possibly a conference championship game. I'm guessing 10% chance they end above a 10-2 PSU.
I'm guessing 2 or 3 current 1 loss teams would finish ahead of a 10-2 PSU.
The 2 loss teams currently ranked ahead of us are Utah (faces #8 Oregon and possibly conference championship game), K St (faces three 3 loss teams and a conference championship if they get by them), and LSU (faces #6 Alabama and 3 loss Arkansas).
I don’t know that any of the 3 current 2 loss teams finish ahead of a 10-2 PSU. Maybe 1 pulls it off.
So by my math, a 10-2 PSU if we can get there:
5 or 6 current undefeated teams + 2 or 3 current 1 loss teams + maybe 1 current 2 loss teams = anywhere from 7 to 10 teams finishing the regular season ahead of a 10-2 PSU.
So I would project a 10-2 PSU lands anywhere between #8 and #11 in the country at the end of the regular season. That could even lead to a top 5 finish if we win our bowl.
For simplicity, I will assume that the undefeated teams remain 1 loss or less and ahead of us or even 2 losses and ahead. There is a chance 1 or 2 teams drop 2 or more remaining games and fall below us but looking at their schedules I'd assume probably 5 or 6 of those schools finish above a 10-2 PSU.
The 1 loss teams are a more interesting analysis.
Bama would have to lose to #15 LSU or #11 Ole Miss. I doubt either happens but if only 1 does then I think Bama probably still remains above a 10-2 PSU due to SEC bias.
Oregon still has #12 Utah and #24 Oregon St. and possibly their championship game opponent. It is quite possible they end up with 2 or 3 losses. I'd say maybe 50% chance they fall behind a 10-2 PSU.
USC still has #10 UCLA and Notre Dame along with a possible conference championship game. Again, I'd give them a 50% probability of dropping below us.
UCLA still has #9 USC and a shot at a conference championship game. Another coin flip for them dropping below us.
Ole Miss has #6 Alabama and two 5-3 SEC teams on their schedule. Probably 25% chance they remain above a 10-2 PSU.
Illinois has #4 Michigan, 3 loss Purdue, and possibly a conference championship game. I'm guessing 10% chance they end above a 10-2 PSU.
I'm guessing 2 or 3 current 1 loss teams would finish ahead of a 10-2 PSU.
The 2 loss teams currently ranked ahead of us are Utah (faces #8 Oregon and possibly conference championship game), K St (faces three 3 loss teams and a conference championship if they get by them), and LSU (faces #6 Alabama and 3 loss Arkansas).
I don’t know that any of the 3 current 2 loss teams finish ahead of a 10-2 PSU. Maybe 1 pulls it off.
So by my math, a 10-2 PSU if we can get there:
5 or 6 current undefeated teams + 2 or 3 current 1 loss teams + maybe 1 current 2 loss teams = anywhere from 7 to 10 teams finishing the regular season ahead of a 10-2 PSU.
So I would project a 10-2 PSU lands anywhere between #8 and #11 in the country at the end of the regular season. That could even lead to a top 5 finish if we win our bowl.