9-3 is not an unfavorable prediction for any team facing this schedule.
However, the typical returning-starters analysis doesn't really apply to this team because of the way Pry rotates on defense. Givens, Windsor, Scott, Reid and Oruwariye are new starters but they've played a ton of big-time football and nothing's going to fool them.
Loss of Barkley is huge. The offense should operate well but when they need a play at crunch time in a big game, the last two seasons Barkley and Hamilton were often the ones to make the play. So that will have to come from Sanders, Johnson, Thompkins and others. As long as Pry can plug the holes at LB and find two new people to rotate in at tackle, it's the offense that's the question mark for me.