Why is Penn State the absolute worst team in the nation on 3rd down conversions?

[Jerademan74]

At just 25% conversions, we are dead last in the country! This seems hard to imagine when scoring 62 points last week. My guess is that we rarely had to convert on 3rd downs last week because we kept getting first downs on first and second down in the 2nd half. Earlier in the season, we kept trying to give Barkley the ball on a delayed handoff that everyone on defense was expecting. We the threw on 2nd down and had 3rd and longs more often then not.During the Minny game and since, McSorley learned that he can run and didn't always give Barkley the ball when it was well covered in the backfield. Trace ran counter to the pressure and has helped both Barkley and the OL as such. I'm still surprised that we are still dead last on 3rd down conversions. I guess it points more to the OL, play calling and team execution deficiencies. What are your thoughts?

 

[BobPSU92]

Because Fries isn't playing on the offensive line.

 

[marshall23]

Because no matter how well the team is doing, fans have to find something to bitch about.

 

[canuckhal]

Because Barkley wears number 26.

 

[artsandletters]

Because Shane Simmons isn't playing linebacker.

Because Moorhead isn't using enough two back sets.

Because Moorhead doesn't use a true fullback.

Because Franklin doesn't report injuries and player status.

 

[mn78psu83]

Because Shane Simmons isn't playing linebacker.

Because Moorhead isn't using enough two back sets.

Because Franklin doesn't report injuries and player status.

If Gesicki can't play - because they won't (maybe they will) burn Danny Dalton's redshirt.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

At just 25% conversions, we are dead last in the country! This seems hard to imagine when scoring 62 points last week. My guess is that we rarely had to convert on 3rd downs last week because we kept getting first downs on first and second down in the 2nd half. Earlier in the season, we kept trying to give Barkley the ball on a delayed handoff that everyone on defense was expecting. We the threw on 2nd down and had 3rd and longs more often then not.During the Minny game and since, McSorley learned that he can run and didn't always give Barkley the ball when it was well covered in the backfield. Trace ran counter to the pressure and has helped both Barkley and the OL as such. I'm still surprised that we are still dead last on 3rd down conversions. I guess it points more to the OL, play calling and team execution deficiencies. What are your thoughts?

My guess is that our 3rd Down Conversion (just like our Turnover Ratio) is much better over the past 4 games than it was in the first 4. Additionally, when you have a "big play offense" like PSU's (I believe PSU leads the b1g in plays of 30 yards or more and is either 1st or 2nd in plays of 20 yards or more...), 3rd Down conversion rate is less relevant than it is to a running team like Minny, daO$U, scUM, Wisco or Iow'er....as they need to keep the chains moving to sustain scoring drives.

 

[canuckhal]

Because 21 guns isn't the offensive coordinator and Franklin refuses to play his best players.

 

[marshall23]

I suggest that Sandy hire an associate athletic director in charge of 3rd down conversion research and development.

 

[tboyer]

Look at all the rankings here and there are some interesting patterns. PSU ranks low on 3rd down conversion and time of possession. But high (10th) on yards per completion and relatively high in scoring (39th).

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/rank...ng_period=33&sport_code=MFB&team_individual=T

What that means is that PSU is an extreme quick-strike big-play offense. And we know the reason for that -- defenses have focused on Barkley and kept the safeties down low. So PSU has been forced to throw deep -- and has been successful at it. But deep passing means you don't see as many third and shorts -- you're either getting the first down or you have an incomplete pass and a third and long.

To some extent it's a reflection of PSU's young and developing offensive line and the difficulty they had run blocking at the beginning of the season. It's really incredible Barkley has the yards he has given the line's difficulties and opposing defenses playing to stop him.

Anyway, every week I hope this changes - I hope PSU can be a little more consistent with short passing and sustain longer drives.

Against Iowa it will be hard to throw long because they keep the safeties back. I think PSU will have to do some things Saturday that it hasn't done very well this season, or risk losing.

 

[michnittlion]

I wonder what our average and median "yards to go" are on our 3rd down attempts.

It does seem to me that we've had a disproportionate number of 3rd-and-13s and the like over the season. Those aren't easy to convert.

 

[HunterPSU96]

So far with this young offense this season its kinda been boom or bust. A lot of the time our offense is really clicking and we're converting on just 1 or 2 downs or struggling and going 3 and out. When we go to 3rd down its usually been because we hand the ball to Barkley on first down and he loses 3 yards, 2nd and 13 we throw to a receiver and its either dropped or misthrown and then on 3rd and 13 we are blitzed and McSorely has to run for his life and throw it away or take a sack. I think this will get better as McSorely & OLine progresses and Moorhead further develops this offense. Keep in mind, hes still been here less than one year.

 

[psuro]

I blame Jay.

 

[21Guns]

Look at all the rankings here and there are some interesting patterns. PSU ranks low on 3rd down conversion and time of possession. But high (10th) on yards per completion and relatively high in scoring (39th).

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/rank...ng_period=33&sport_code=MFB&team_individual=T

What that means is that PSU is an extreme quick-strike big-play offense. And we know the reason for that -- defenses have focused on Barkley and kept the safeties down low. So PSU has been forced to throw deep -- and has been successful at it. But deep passing means you don't see as many third and shorts -- you're either getting the first down or you have an incomplete pass and a third and long.

To some extent it's a reflection of PSU's young and developing offensive line and the difficulty they had run blocking at the beginning of the season. It's really incredible Barkley has the yards he has given the line's difficulties and opposing defenses playing to stop him.

Anyway, every week I hope this changes - I hope PSU can be a little more consistent with short passing and sustain longer drives.

Against Iowa it will be hard to throw long because they keep the safeties back. I think PSU will have to do some things Saturday that it hasn't done very well this season, or risk losing.

Cancel the game and forfeit.

 

[mn78psu83]

I blame Jay.

You always do.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I wonder what our average and median "yards to go" are on our 3rd down attempts.

It does seem to me that we've had a disproportionate number of 3rd-and-13s and the like over the season. Those aren't easy to convert.

I was going to post something similar. I think that you'll find that we're in 3rd and long more often than most teams, and that's hurting out ability to convert on those 3rd downs.

 

[green2623]

Somebody who is a statistic guru should find out how many third downs we've actually had compared to others. I BELIEVE we don't have as many third downs per game as others or third down chances. Better answer is how many times do we punt per game; one doesn't punt as much in higher scoring games. Just sayin'.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Somebody who is a statistic guru should find out how many third downs we've actually had compared to others. I BELIEVE we don't have as many third downs per game as others or third down chances. Better answer is how many times do we punt per game; one doesn't punt as much in higher scoring games. Just sayin'.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/699/p3

Looks like we've had the 7th fewest 3rd downs in the country (though 2 of those 7 have played one fewer game than us). But this stat is based on %, not on total conversions.

 

[psuro]

You always do.

As consistent as tailback draw on 2nd and long.

 

[mn78psu83]

As consistent as tailback draw on 2nd and long.

You know - I miss bitchin' about that and the pitch out to McHugh and the ridiculous pseudo play action on 3rd and long and...

 

[blion72]

At just 25% conversions, we are dead last in the country! This seems hard to imagine when scoring 62 points last week. My guess is that we rarely had to convert on 3rd downs last week because we kept getting first downs on first and second down in the 2nd half. Earlier in the season, we kept trying to give Barkley the ball on a delayed handoff that everyone on defense was expecting. We the threw on 2nd down and had 3rd and longs more often then not.During the Minny game and since, McSorley learned that he can run and didn't always give Barkley the ball when it was well covered in the backfield. Trace ran counter to the pressure and has helped both Barkley and the OL as such. I'm still surprised that we are still dead last on 3rd down conversions. I guess it points more to the OL, play calling and team execution deficiencies. What are your thoughts?

until McSorley started to actually take the ball and run off the RPO, our RB was taking alot of negative plays. during Minny game he began to run. TM starting to read the play better has changed everything. before that we struggled to move the ball against a MAC team that has won 3 games, a Pitt team and Temple. UM is real, but the others pretenders. If we played Pitt today we win double digits. i also think the stats are probably better since Minny than before.

 

[83wuzme]

I think our limited options at TE have something to do with this.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Look at all the rankings here and there are some interesting patterns. PSU ranks low on 3rd down conversion and time of possession. But high (10th) on yards per completion and relatively high in scoring (39th).

http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/rank...ng_period=33&sport_code=MFB&team_individual=T

What that means is that PSU is an extreme quick-strike big-play offense. And we know the reason for that -- defenses have focused on Barkley and kept the safeties down low. So PSU has been forced to throw deep -- and has been successful at it. But deep passing means you don't see as many third and shorts -- you're either getting the first down or you have an incomplete pass and a third and long.

To some extent it's a reflection of PSU's young and developing offensive line and the difficulty they had run blocking at the beginning of the season. It's really incredible Barkley has the yards he has given the line's difficulties and opposing defenses playing to stop him.

Anyway, every week I hope this changes - I hope PSU can be a little more consistent with short passing and sustain longer drives.

Against Iowa it will be hard to throw long because they keep the safeties back. I think PSU will have to do some things Saturday that it hasn't done very well this season, or risk losing.

All except for the fact that Iowa is surrendering the 2nd most Passing Yards in b1g games, 247 Passing Yards given up per game (only NW is worse at 283 Passing Yards surrendered per b1g game). Not only that, but Iowa has the 2nd worst TD/INT ratio in the conference surrendering 3.33X more TDs than INTs (10 TDs vs. 3 INTs) - only Purdue is worse having surrendered 9 TDs with only 2 INTs. You are greatly exaggerating how hard it is to pass against Iowa.....the reality is that the numbers say that Iowa is one of the easiest teams to pass against in the entire league (especially downfield as the completion % allowed by Iowa is quite low, 52%, but the yards per game and TDs surrendered relative to INTs is quite, quite high!).

 

[ChiTownLion]

It's the TFLs leading to a whole bunch of 3rd and longs.

 

[21Guns]

I think our limited options at TE have something to do with this.

Gesicki cleared to play and the ankle is better.

 

[Bob78]

Because 21 guns isn't the offensive coordinator and Franklin refuses to play his best players.

Two biggest reasons:
- We continue to wish for good things to happen to ex-players now at other schools (aka The 'Cheer Like An Ivy Leaguer' Syndrome)
- We fans do not put our focus solely on the upcoming Saturday opponent and sometimes discuss games scheduled for later in the season.

 

[21Guns]

Two biggest reasons:
- We continue to wish for good things to happen to ex-players now at other schools (aka The 'Cheer Like An Ivy Leaguer' Syndrome)
- We fans do not put our focus solely on the upcoming Saturday opponent and sometimes discuss games scheduled for later in the season.

That's just you Bob, not "we".

 

[Bob78]

That's just you Bob, not "we".

You and I really do read different boards, apparently.

 

[21Guns]

You and I really do read different boards, apparently.

I read the Penn State board. You read the Yale board.

Advantage you, I suppose, when it comes to "good old sportsmanship" and "sis boom bah" and "good job old chap".

 

[Peetz Pool Boy]

Why is it that I have to all of the "in depth research" around this stinkin' joint? I wish I could inform you that things are getting better, but they aren't.

Kent State 5-14 (36%)
Pitt 2-10 (20%)
Temple 2-9 (22%)
ScUM 2-12 (17%)
Minny 4-15 (27%)
UMd 5-13 (38%)
O$U 2-13 (15%)
PU 2-9 (22%)

• PSU struggles against teams with decent or better run defenses, especially inside between the defensive tackles. (See bolding above)
• PSU is still only marginal (%<30%) against teams with average to poor defenses.
• PSU hasn't yet established a punishing inside rushing attack. We rack up yards outside in big chunks.
• "Franklin-ball" doesn't believe in using a FB....a critical ingedient in being even marginally successful in converting 3rd downs.

P.S. Iowa has a good defense. I would put them in the "bold" category

 

[21Guns]

Why is it that I have to all of the "in depth research" around this stinkin' joint? I wish I could inform you that things are getting better, but they aren't.

Kent State 5-14 (36%)
Pitt 2-10 (20%)
Temple 2-9 (22%)
ScUM 2-12 (17%)
Minny 4-15 (27%)
UMd 5-13 (38%)
O$U 2-13 (15%)
PU 2-9 (22%)

• PSU struggles against teams with decent or better defenses (See bolding above)
• PSU is still only marginal (%<30%) against teams with average to poor defenses.
• PSU hasn't yet established a punishing inside rushing attack. We rack up yards outside in big chunks.

Iowa has a good defense.

Better defense than Michigan or Ohio State? I'll answer that, no.

 

[mn78psu83]

Why is it that I have to all of the "in depth research" around this stinkin' joint? I wish I could inform you that things are getting better, but they aren't.

Kent State 5-14 (36%)
Pitt 2-10 (20%)
Temple 2-9 (22%)
ScUM 2-12 (17%)
Minny 4-15 (27%)
UMd 5-13 (38%)
O$U 2-13 (15%)
PU 2-9 (22%)

• PSU struggles against teams with decent or better defenses (See bolding above)
• PSU is still only marginal (%<30%) against teams with average to poor defenses.
• PSU hasn't yet established a punishing inside rushing attack. We rack up yards outside in big chunks.

Iowa has a good defense.

Professor B is going to open up a can of analytical whoop ass on you now. Duck!

 

[Bob78]

My guess is that our 3rd Down Conversion (just like our Turnover Ratio) is much better over the past 4 games than it was in the first 4. Additionally, when you have a "big play offense" like PSU's (I believe PSU leads the b1g in plays of 30 yards or more and is either 1st or 2nd in plays of 20 yards or more...), 3rd Down conversion rate is less relevant than it is to a running team like Minny, daO$U, scUM, Wisco or Iow'er....as they need to keep the chains moving to sustain scoring drives.

I also think the trend since game 5 has been much more positive, although I have not looked up anything to confirm that. Franklin said at the beginning of the season that it would be important to stay ahead of the chains, to keep 3rd down yardage manageable, and to get more first downs to improve field position even when punting. I think we have been doing that with more frequency over the last month.

The future's so bright, we all gotta wear shades.

Edit:
Peetz Pool boy says positive trend ain't so. (Thanks for doing that research, PPB). I'm still gonna wear shades, because I believe we are improving in all areas.

 

[Peetz Pool Boy]

Professor B is going to open up a can of analytical whoop ass on you now. Duck!

I'm confident that I can defend myself against the "Angry Professor B" without becoming unhinged.

 

[mn78psu83]

I'm confident that I can defend myself against the "Angry Professor"

He's currently embroiled in a student ticket controversy. He's dispatching two posters at once with a blistering argument. Poor douche nozzles.

 

[Peetz Pool Boy]

Better defense than Michigan or Ohio State? I'll answer that, no.

I didn't compare Iowa's defense to either scum or OSU. I just observed that PSU struggles against teams with good "inside" run defenses. Iowa is also such a team.

 

[tboyer]

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/699/p3

Looks like we've had the 7th fewest 3rd downs in the country (though 2 of those 7 have played one fewer game than us). But this stat is based on %, not on total conversions.

What I suspect is that it's the TYPE of third downs. I suspect that PSU is seeing more 3rd and 8 or 9, and less 3rd and 2, because of the way the offense operates. It's the opposite of dink and dunk.

I've never seen a PSU team where 30-40-50 yard passes were so common.

 

[21Guns]

I didn't compare Iowa's defense to either scum or OSU. I just observed that PSU struggles against teams with good "inside" run defenses. Iowa is also such a team.

Yes, they are. Penn State has improved up front, also. The pessimism on this board going into this game smacks of apologist behavior. People preparing to lose so they can say "I told you so".

Northwestern rolled this team for 38 points. Before you claim the greatness of Northwesterns' offense, recall that PSU scored 24 points vs Ohio State, Northwestern scored 20.

 

[21Guns]

I also think the trend since game 5 has been much more positive, although I have not looked up anything to confirm that. Franklin said at the beginning of the season that it would be important to stay ahead of the chains, to keep 3rd down yardage manageable, and to get more first downs to improve field position even when punting. I think we have been doing that with more frequency over the last month.

The future's so bright, we all gotta wear shades.

Edit:
Peetz Pool boy says positive trend ain't so. (Thanks for doing that research, PPB). I'm still gonna wear shades, because I believe we are improving in all areas.

False. The reason you are so confident, is because the young men in varsity "S" sweaters are moving the ball on the grid. If you advance four squares on the "grid" you get a first down. Our single wing offense is rolling along splendidly. Our equipment manager is taking care of our leather helmets well, and the ice cream socials after the game with the boys from the varsity club are going well.

Ahoy Palloy.

 

[Bob78]

I read the Penn State board. You read the Yale board.

Advantage you, I suppose, when it comes to "good old sportsmanship" and "sis boom bah" and "good job old chap".

Boola Boola!

Big character flaw of mine: I do not even feel bad about being showing good sportsmanship.
I hate me for that. I hope the many other Bobs on these boards join me in hating me for that.

Next thing you know:
Hello. My name is Bob. I clap when an opposing player gets up after an injury.
OMG! What is wrong with me!?!? Help me, Gunner, help me! Be my Good Sportsmanship Anonymous Sponsor! Please! I will call you each time I feel the urge to be level-headed, and borderline sane, about sports. Just post your cell phone here. I won't share it with anyone.