Why is Penn State the absolute worst team in the nation on 3rd down conversions?
- Thread starter Jerademan74
- Start date
hoi polloi? - transliteration of the Ancient Greek for the masses , herd, common folk
literally - "the many"
Ivy League code for 'My flask is as full as my trust fund'. From the Latin "Ahoyous Palloyous" and the Greek "Yo Mommasass".
But I've divulged too much.
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Pffft. That's just what we Ivy League Cheer Syndrome peeps want the masses to think.
See the real translations in my other post. Then forget what you have learned....
I've already forgotten most of what I learned. The rest shouldn't be hard.
So in "Ivy League speak" Polloy could be a wealthy flask-toting, trustafarian sailor, in which case it would be wholly acceptable to greet him with an "Ahoy Palloy"
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Too many 3rd and long situations. PSU isn't a strong rushing team and they throw a disproportionate percentage of long passes. Barkley has some big runs but he also gets stopped for no gain quite often. McSorley has some long throws but he completes < 55% of his passes. Teams that can consistently run and throw for 4 yards put themselves in 3rd and short situations.
So in "Ivy League speak" Polloy could be a wealthy flask-toting, trustafarian sailor, in which case it would be wholly acceptable to greet him with an "Ahoy Palloy"
Who in the name of Benedict Arnold told you that?! The Crimson Creeper? The Dart-Mouth? Old Yaler?
We cannot have these secrets coming out here on the Penn board.
Interesting, because through b1g play to date, PSU has averaged 191.4 ypg rushing, while Iowa has allowed 141.4 per game.
"Erial" and "green" bring up a couple of key points......and I believe that their "hunches" are born out by the numbers (actually, I know they are - - - - because I've run the numbers):
For the important implications.....you can jump to the last few paragraphs
Now, as for the numbers:
Fully 75%+ of PSU's offensive 3rd downs have been with 5+ yards to go.
That is NOT a recipe for success (there a lot of reasons WHY that is the case, and any value in the "numbers" is always in dependent on being able to come up with the reasons "why".....but first, just a look at the numbers).
- PSU has had 73 "long yardage" 3rd downs......and converted just 19% of those.
FWIW, that is still a bit "sub-par"......but within reasonable statistical variation, it is a more-or-less normal number
- PSU has only had 24 "3rd and manageable" situations
That is an AMAZING stat through 8 games - just THREE 3rd and "managables" per game.
All 9 3rd downs against Temple were long yardage...FWIW
PSU's success rate on 3rd and "managables" is 50%.
That is a bit sub-par, and it is clear what the problem there has been.....the inability to pick up short yardage on the ground......PSU is just 6 for 12 in success rate when running the ball on 3rd and less than 2 yards.
That's a sign of an offensive line that simply cannot "move the defense".....and all of us know that has been a problem for some time - - - but does seem to be getting better.
On the plus side....and quite frankly this is MORE important than the 3rd down success rate - - - and someone made mention of this earlier:
PSU has far FEWER third downs per possession than their opponents.....
ie The PSU D is much more successful in forcing 3rd downs for their opponents (like the TWENTY TWO times PSU forced the OSU offense into 3rd down - as opposed to just NINE for PSU in that game)
The best way to keep a drive alive is not to complete a somewhat higher % of third downs (because NO offense is likely to thrive if continually facing 3rd down - - - kinda' like Purdue, who was successful, IIRC, on their first 8 3rd downs last week.....but once their luck ran out, they got pummeled)
By avoiding third down, the PSU offense has been very successful.
Nothing better than a drive that goes:
"1st Down, 1st Down, 2nd Down, 1st Down, 2nd down, 1st down, Touchdown"
Over the last two games.....PSU has only faced 22 third downs on offense.......while forcing the opponent into 44 of them.
Because here is the key point of the entire data:
Every "3rd down avoided" is equivalent to a 3rd down conversion.....it is ABSOLUTELY of equal value
So....over the last two weeks, relative to our opponents, it is absolutely accurate to say that PSU effectively converted on 22 MORE third downs than the opposition....before they even got started.
ie. While PSU was just 4-22 on 3rd down (on the stat sheet)...they "converted"a nother 22 - by avoiding 3rd down altogether.
The PSU opponents during those games were 18-44 on the stat sheet...and their 3rd down % "looks" much better....41% vs 18%
But the way you win games is by maintaining possession until you score.....and PSU opponents failed - and were faced with a 4th down 26 times......and PSU only 18 times.
Just last week....
PSU converted just 2 3rd downs. TWO! .....Purdue converted 9 of them.
Why did PSU win handily? Because PSU only faced NINE third downs all game.....Purdue faced TWENTY TWO of them (so, PSU had only 7 "fails"....Purdue had 13 "fails")
Hope folks can follow along. With all that
There are DEFINITELY some issues PSU needs to, and can, address wrt the % of third down conversions (that's a whole 'nuther discussion)......but - right now - you wouldn't want to F around too much with an offense that has been very successful in the "bottom line" (maintaining possession).....for the purposes of making a stat sheet number "look" better.
For the important implications.....you can jump to the last few paragraphs
Now, as for the numbers:
Fully 75%+ of PSU's offensive 3rd downs have been with 5+ yards to go.
That is NOT a recipe for success (there a lot of reasons WHY that is the case, and any value in the "numbers" is always in dependent on being able to come up with the reasons "why".....but first, just a look at the numbers).
- PSU has had 73 "long yardage" 3rd downs......and converted just 19% of those.
FWIW, that is still a bit "sub-par"......but within reasonable statistical variation, it is a more-or-less normal number
- PSU has only had 24 "3rd and manageable" situations
That is an AMAZING stat through 8 games - just THREE 3rd and "managables" per game.
All 9 3rd downs against Temple were long yardage...FWIW
PSU's success rate on 3rd and "managables" is 50%.
That is a bit sub-par, and it is clear what the problem there has been.....the inability to pick up short yardage on the ground......PSU is just 6 for 12 in success rate when running the ball on 3rd and less than 2 yards.
That's a sign of an offensive line that simply cannot "move the defense".....and all of us know that has been a problem for some time - - - but does seem to be getting better.
On the plus side....and quite frankly this is MORE important than the 3rd down success rate - - - and someone made mention of this earlier:
PSU has far FEWER third downs per possession than their opponents.....
ie The PSU D is much more successful in forcing 3rd downs for their opponents (like the TWENTY TWO times PSU forced the OSU offense into 3rd down - as opposed to just NINE for PSU in that game)
The best way to keep a drive alive is not to complete a somewhat higher % of third downs (because NO offense is likely to thrive if continually facing 3rd down - - - kinda' like Purdue, who was successful, IIRC, on their first 8 3rd downs last week.....but once their luck ran out, they got pummeled)
By avoiding third down, the PSU offense has been very successful.
Nothing better than a drive that goes:
"1st Down, 1st Down, 2nd Down, 1st Down, 2nd down, 1st down, Touchdown"
Over the last two games.....PSU has only faced 22 third downs on offense.......while forcing the opponent into 44 of them.
Because here is the key point of the entire data:
Every "3rd down avoided" is equivalent to a 3rd down conversion.....it is ABSOLUTELY of equal value
So....over the last two weeks, relative to our opponents, it is absolutely accurate to say that PSU effectively converted on 22 MORE third downs than the opposition....before they even got started.
ie. While PSU was just 4-22 on 3rd down (on the stat sheet)...they "converted"a nother 22 - by avoiding 3rd down altogether.
The PSU opponents during those games were 18-44 on the stat sheet...and their 3rd down % "looks" much better....41% vs 18%
But the way you win games is by maintaining possession until you score.....and PSU opponents failed - and were faced with a 4th down 26 times......and PSU only 18 times.
Just last week....
PSU converted just 2 3rd downs. TWO! .....Purdue converted 9 of them.
Why did PSU win handily? Because PSU only faced NINE third downs all game.....Purdue faced TWENTY TWO of them (so, PSU had only 7 "fails"....Purdue had 13 "fails")
Hope folks can follow along. With all that
There are DEFINITELY some issues PSU needs to, and can, address wrt the % of third down conversions (that's a whole 'nuther discussion)......but - right now - you wouldn't want to F around too much with an offense that has been very successful in the "bottom line" (maintaining possession).....for the purposes of making a stat sheet number "look" better.
I know what hoi polloi means. I wanted to put him on the spot but somebody had to butt in
. I just couldn't believe that 21 could somehow, some way turn it into a nautical term. Besides, what does hoi polloi have to do with his post?
I know what hoi polloi means. I wanted to put him on the spot but somebody had to butt in
Its not a stat this is commonly tracked, but given this discussion it would be interesting to see what our 1st and 2nd down "conversion rates" are and how they compare to other teams. Since we have faced so few 3rd downs I'd guess our rates are pretty high.
