Why Wisconsin terrifies me (trap game)

[Obliviax]

Agree with much of what you said with a couple caveats: some of those post bye games had special circumstances. We’re easily ahead in both Iowa and Sparty. Injuries cost us the Iowa game and God brought in a massive T storm that really hurt us with Sparty.

And Illinois worst game ever? Don’t have words for that ……. Just 6-4!

And I would place the Temple game below Illinois,

But 100%….. this could be a very tough game. One big plus is our team plays well under the lights and the national spotlight.

Agree. I think this team has to adjust to bing the hunted, and not the hunter. They've thrived on being that underdog with a chip on their shoulder. Against Wisconsin, they'll be a top 3 ranked team playing on the road against a good (not great) team that is looking for a signature win after improving in their last two games. There is an attitude, a swagger, a level of pressure that needs to be learned how to deal with.

For example, the guardians are playing the Yankees and have just puked all over Yankee Stadium in the first two games. The guardians have almost the same record in a more difficult division and have every reason to be there. They earned the right. Yet, a choking on the pressure. Coming back @USC is a big boost but it has to be used. They have to know they can go into any venue and beat any team if the play smart and hard.

 

[LandoComando]

Agree. I think this team has to adjust to bing the hunted, and not the hunter. They've thrived on being that underdog with a chip on their shoulder. Against Wisconsin, they'll be a top 3 ranked team playing on the road against a good (not great) team that is looking for a signature win after improving in their last two games. There is an attitude, a swagger, a level of pressure that needs to be learned how to deal with.

For example, the guardians are playing the Yankees and have just puked all over Yankee Stadium in the first two games. The guardians have almost the same record in a more difficult division and have every reason to be there. They earned the right. Yet, a choking on the pressure. Coming back @USC is a big boost but it has to be used. They have to know they can go into any venue and beat any team if the play smart and hard.

When is the last game we won as the underdog?

 

[tjp013]

Wisconsin gives up 5.23 yards per play, which is a pretty big # (we are at 4.51 yards for comparison), and only has 10 sacks for the season (compared to our 14), and 3 interceptions (compared to our 5).

Our offense averages 7.21 yards per play, which is a pretty big # (Wisconsin is at 5.91 yards per play).

Road game or not, they would have to play their A+++ game, with a 2nd string QB, and we would also have to play a B or even C game, for them to overcome the trends, barring anything whacky (i.e. a critical injury, multiple bizarre turnovers).

And something that we all seem to be failing to recognize is that our Defensive Coordinator knows all of our upcoming opponents well, which has only been the case once this season.

they don't worry me-regarding their 2nd team QB though, he's playing better than Van Dyke was before he was injured.

 

[PSUSignore]

It very well could be, particularly with the Buckeye game in the immediate week after. I don't think the bye matters as much since we have 2 this year. If it does, what do we do in the playoff? Pray we make the ccg and lose? Because winning the ccg creates a bye. Not making the ccg means a week between the end of the season and start of the playoff, essentially a bye.

I think primarily the issue was letdown after a loss moreso than the bye, and I think we handled losses better since '22. Now we just have to learn how to beat better teams.

I hadn't really thought much about the playoffs adding a defacto bye week, but regardless I honestly view the #5 playoff seed as the most favorable spot to be. You get to host a home game against the G5 team, and in round two you play the lowest of the top 4 seeds, likely to be an ACC or Big 12 team. I would not be very upset about not winning the conference if it that puts us in position to end up at #5. Those home playoff games are going to be awesome, probably much more fun than your average bowl or postseason game.

 

[lazydave841]

I hadn't really thought much about the playoffs adding a defacto bye week, but regardless I honestly view the #5 playoff seed as the most favorable spot to be. You get to host a home game against the G5 team, and in round two you play the lowest of the top 4 seeds. I would not be very upset about not winning the conference if it that puts us in position to end up at #5. Those home playoff games are going to be awesome, probably much more fun than your average bowl or postseason game.

I think #5 spot is going to go to ccg loser of either SEC or Big 10 as long as they don't get beat by 14+ points.

I think after they see the success of home cfp games, we end up with more as soon as possible.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

When is the last game we won as the underdog?

2021 opening game vs Wisconsin?

 

[PSUSignore]

I think #5 spot is going to go to ccg loser of either SEC or Big 10 as long as they don't get beat by 14+ points.

I think after they see the success of home cfp games, we end up with more as soon as possible.

If both teams in the conference championship are undefeated then yes, that's likely. But with these unbalanced schedules I could also see it going to the 3rd place team, especially in years when one or both of the teams in the championship game have a loss. The tiebreakers are going to decide a lot at the end of the season now since we will now often have situations where the top teams do not play each other.

 

[lazydave841]

If both teams in the conference championship are undefeated then yes, that's likely. But with these unbalanced schedules I could also see it going to the 3rd place team, especially in years when one or both of the teams in the championship game have a loss. The tiebreakers are going to decide a lot at the end of the season now since we will now often have situations where the top teams do not play each other.

True but let's go through some scenarios.

1. Oregon wins out, OSU wins out, we are 11-1, we'll call IU 11-1. OSU wins ccg, I don't see us getting #5 over Oregon who lost in the ccg.

2. Oregon wins out, we beat OSU and are undefeated, IU loses to OSU. OSU would have 2 losses. Definitely the loser of ccg getting #5.

3. Oregon loses once, OSU beats us and IU. 4 teams with 1 loss. Tiebreaker creates the ccg, can't see the team who gets 2nd loss dropping below the 3/4 Big 10 team.

And this doesn't include any SEC scenarios, who might have a better 5 seed candidate by the time we get there.

 

[ryoder1]

Also there has been mention of Rojas having a shoulder injury and that is why I hope Speca & Robinson get some PT.
I assume Wylie is still a no go.

I also have been asking about Wylie. I wish someone would just ask Franklin about him and Fisher. Our depth at LB is thin especially if Rojas is dealing with a shoulder. I assume Wylie is not practicing.

 

[ryoder1]

Agree with much of what you said with a couple caveats: some of those post bye games had special circumstances. We’re easily ahead in both Iowa and Sparty. Injuries cost us the Iowa game and God brought in a massive T storm that really hurt us with Sparty.

And Illinois worst game ever? Don’t have words for that ……. Just 6-4!

And I would place the Temple game below Illinois,

But 100%….. this could be a very tough game. One big plus is our team plays well under the lights and the national spotlight.

LOL, remember that Wallace Breen poster?? I thought of his posts when you brought up Iowa 2021. He was adamant we were going to lose that Iowa game even if Clifford does not get hurt. Complete nonsense. I wonder what his new nic is??? Who could it be???

 

[bdgan]

some of those post bye games had special circumstances. We’re easily ahead in both Iowa and Sparty. Injuries cost us the Iowa game and God brought in a massive T storm that really hurt us with Sparty.

PSU was leading Iowa 17-3 before Clifford got hurt. IIRC Franklin said PSU didn't have time to assess and get a 2nd team QB ready to play. That seems ridiculous given they had fall practice + 5 previous games to make that assessment. Roberson couldn't even get the snap count. IMO that's a coaching problem.

According to Lando the #7 team (PSU) should never lose to the #24 team (MSU). I don't buy the storm delay excuse. PSU was struggling in that game long before the delay.

 

[The Spin Meister]

PSU was leading Iowa 17-3 before Clifford got hurt. IIRC Franklin said PSU didn't have time to assess and get a 2nd team QB ready to play. That seems ridiculous given they had fall practice + 5 previous games to make that assessment. Roberson couldn't even get the snap count. IMO that's a coaching problem.

According to Lando the #7 team (PSU) should never lose to the #24 team (MSU). I don't buy the storm delay excuse. PSU was struggling in that game long before the delay.

What was the score when the game was stopped ?

 

[KCLion]

True but let's go through some scenarios.

1. Oregon wins out, OSU wins out, we are 11-1, we'll call IU 11-1. OSU wins ccg, I don't see us getting #5 over Oregon who lost in the ccg.

2. Oregon wins out, we beat OSU and are undefeated, IU loses to OSU. OSU would have 2 losses. Definitely the loser of ccg getting #5.

3. Oregon loses once, OSU beats us and IU. 4 teams with 1 loss. Tiebreaker creates the ccg, can't see the team who gets 2nd loss dropping below the 3/4 Big 10 team.

And this doesn't include any SEC scenarios, who might have a better 5 seed candidate by the time we get there.

I believe Indiana will lose at least two, probably three games by the end of the season.

 

[m.knox]

The afterglow of Saturday is finally fading a bit, and like most of you, I'm analyzing our chances after the bye and beyond. And history tells us to be afraid of PSU's performance in this very position.

2017--Lose heartbreaker in Columbus. Hardly drop in the polls, but we go to a less talented #24 MSU team the next week, endure an ungodly storm delay, and fritter the game away. Most talented Franklin team wasted.

2018--Lose heartbreaker to OSU in Happy Valley. Get a bye. Come out flat after a bye week against unranked MSU team and lose again. No more top 10 ranking that season for us...

2019--8-0 and ranked #3 in the country. Coming off bye week, we travel to #17 Minnesota and lay an egg.

2021--start a solid 5-0 and ranked #4. Travel to #3 Iowa and lose a heartbreaker. Bye week...and come home and lose the worst game in PSU history, 9OT against a terrible Illinois team.

Three AWFUL performances that wasted our potential for the season coming right after a bye week...and all four seasons saw us lose to teams we should have beaten. I hope Franklin has learned from these trials and is determined to keep his players sharp physically and mentally because this road game to Wisconsin is by far our biggest TRAP game of the season

I agree with you. Evening kick. Homecoming. Bye week doldrums. Wisconsin seems to be getting it together, but as another poster pointed out several days ago, it was against two relatively weak squads. Perhaps that's just what the doctor ordered for them? We'll see. We came out 10 to 11 point favorites.

 

[Delcolion915]

If you are who you say you are, you take care of business. Last year Ohio State came into Madison at night, played an awful game, and won 24-10. I just watched some guys on locked in, worrying about Purdue in West Lafayette at noon. Some of the fan base is going to freak out regardless of the opponent, or the start time. Wisconsin is on a similar level with Iowa, or Nebraska, or Illinois. They have won two close home games against WMU and another sub 50 level team, they led at halftime against a USC team that committed three first half y
turnovers deep in their territory and then were outscored 28-0 and didn't pass midfield. They are playing with their backup quarterback and before you go comparing the kid to John Elway, know that he isn't playing a down this year if Van Dyke doesn't tear up his ACL.

If you are who you say you are you handle business on the road at night. Period.

 

[cyrizzle]

The consensus seems to be Wisconsin can pose problems for us--where exactly?
They aren't good running the ball or throwing the ball--their defense is at best mid
Defensively?
Is the concern just because it's a road game?

Their running back Tawee Walker has emerged and he’s legit. Our run defense is top notch tho and I don’t think we will let him get going too much. I hope we gameplan to stop him. Their passing game doesn’t worry me. I think they will try a bunch of trick plays against us early, so we need to be ready for that.

 

[LandoComando]

Their running back Tawee Walker has emerged and he’s legit. Our run defense is top notch tho and I don’t think we will let him get going too much. I hope we gameplan to stop him. Their passing game doesn’t worry me. I think they will try a bunch of trick plays against us early, so we need to be ready for that.

"Emerged as legit" because he ran well against Rutgers and kind of well against Purdue
I think we're overselling what he's proven. I have zero concern about their run game even with our LBs being less than elite.

 

[mcpat]

Joe has a losing record vs OSU and UM. Don't forget the ANNUAL iowa loss. Joe has a losing record vs them too.

I know but Joe wasn’t at the top of his game after the mid 90s. He was in his 70s and then 80s. Early 2000s were brutal.

 

[mcpat]

Bo Callahan worries me. Dude will probably be drafted 1st overall.

 

[RickinDayton]

Bo Callahan worries me. Dude will probably be drafted 1st overall.

Who?

 

[RickinDayton]

Who?

Excuse my ignorance. I just looked it up and realized he is a fictional movie character. LOL

 

[The Spin Meister]

Excuse my ignorance. I just looked it up and realized he is a fictional movie character. LOL

I see your Bo Callahan…… but we got a Chad Powers! Take that!

 

[RickinDayton]

(Bo was a Wisconsin QB in the movie)

Yes, I read that. Not a movie person.

 

[RickinDayton]

I see your Bo Callahan…… but we got a Chad Powers! Take that!

View embedded media

Epic

 

[bdroc]

I know but Joe wasn’t at the top of his game after the mid 90s. He was in his 70s and then 80s. Early 2000s were brutal.

Yet he averaged ~10 wins from 2005-2011 and won 2 BiG titles.

 

[mcpat]

Yet he averaged ~10 wins from 2005-2011 and won 2 BiG titles.

58-19 during those years. Following 26-33 from 2000-2004. Believe me, I loved Joe, but it wasn’t his peak.

 

[africamurphy]

I think #5 spot is going to go to ccg loser of either SEC or Big 10 as long as they don't get beat by 14+ points.

I think after they see the success of home cfp games, we end up with more as soon as possible.

Not sure if you heard, but they've already added two more home games starting in 2026. The top 2 will get byes...while 3-8 will host home games against seeds 9-14. I was shocked when they announced it last summer...but now that we're already seeing how weird the seeding will be with the "lesser" ACC and Big 12 champs, it makes sense. That and what you said...more home games in round 1...I didn't like it at first. But now it makes sense...Big Ten and SEC CCG champs get first round byes right into Jan 1...while the rest of the field battles it out.

 

[africamurphy]

True but let's go through some scenarios.

1. Oregon wins out, OSU wins out, we are 11-1, we'll call IU 11-1. OSU wins ccg, I don't see us getting #5 over Oregon who lost in the ccg.

2. Oregon wins out, we beat OSU and are undefeated, IU loses to OSU. OSU would have 2 losses. Definitely the loser of ccg getting #5.

3. Oregon loses once, OSU beats us and IU. 4 teams with 1 loss. Tiebreaker creates the ccg, can't see the team who gets 2nd loss dropping below the 3/4 Big 10 team.

And this doesn't include any SEC scenarios, who might have a better 5 seed candidate by the time we get there.

In scenario 3, I think the #3 Big Ten team WOULD probably get a higher seed than the CCG loser. They shouldn't...playing an extra game shouldn't penalize them, but it probably would.

If we lose by 3 to OSU, then OSU beat Oregon by 3 in the CCG...how can you put us ahead of them?

The 5/6 difference won't be much...but the 11/12 difference won't be much either. It'll be a 9-3 Big Ten/SEC team or a 10-2 Big 12/ACC team...and that team won't be that much better than the best G5 team.

 

[bdroc]

58-19 during those years. Following 26-33 from 2000-2004. Believe me, I loved Joe, but it wasn’t his peak.

64-20

I didn't claim it was his peak.

 

[GregInPitt]

If PSU loses to Wisky they don't deserve to be in the playoff if they also lose to Uh-high-ya.

Every team has injuries. PSU has recruited pretty well and needs to have had a plan to get younger players the experience and coaching to fill in with the other seasoned players ready to pick up some slack. And getting players such as Lane at Safety and Nelson and Robinson at LB ready shows just that.

No excuses, particulary with a bye week to prepare.

 

[BBHorn86]

Good post--we do tend to come out slow in a bye week so hopefully that's not the case
I'm not sure how good Wisconsin is. They weren't dominant in their first two games. Hard to speak about the Bama game as Van Dyke got hurt on the opening drive. Purdue and Rutgers are just bad teams.
The USC game--they looked good early then USC's talent just took over. Wisconsin's second half in that game was horrific.
I'd actually be more worried if we were playing an awful team this week with Ohio State following because we may overlook them but I think Wisconsin's a big enough name that it will be fine.

USC had some early game turnovers in their own end and I believe there was a defensive score that got Wisconsin up by multiple scores but once USC got settled in they took control of the game and won going away. Wisconsin on the road at night will be a challenge but it we think we are final four material then taking care of business in this one should not be a concern. That said, I expect close physcial battle and we'll need to play clean with our A effort to stay on track.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Yet he averaged ~10 wins from 2005-2011 and won 2 BiG titles.

And a #3, a #8 and a #9 finish. Despite being screwed out of several games against the B2G mafia.

 

[ryoder1]

And a #3, a #8 and a #9 finish. Despite being screwed out of several games against the B2G mafia.

Great seasons in '05 and '08 that left us wondering what could have been. The '05 loss to Michigan was brutal as was the Iowa loss in '08. We should have gone to the BCS title game in '08, no way we should have lost to Iowa. One of the top "bad" or heartbreaking losses in Paterno's career.
We then got exposed in the Rose Bowl as USC passed all over us. I wonder if we would have fared better versus Florida in the BCS title game since they did not have the passing game USC had.

In '05, even if we had beaten Michigan I am pretty sure Joe would have again, incredibly, been aced out of playing for the NC despite an undefeated season.

 

[Lion_Backer]

58-19 during those years. Following 26-33 from 2000-2004. Believe me, I loved Joe, but it wasn’t his peak.

Certainly not Joe's peak - but the following 5 years were not too bad for an old man.

And that may be mostly a testament to how his assistant coaches and players felt about him as much as his coaching abilities at that stage of his career

RIP Coach ....

 

[The Spin Meister]

Great seasons in '05 and '08 that left us wondering what could have been. The '05 loss to Michigan was brutal as was the Iowa loss in '08. We should have gone to the BCS title game in '08, no way we should have lost to Iowa. One of the top "bad" or heartbreaking losses in Paterno's career.
We then got exposed in the Rose Bowl as USC passed all over us. I wonder if we would have fared better versus Florida in the BCS title game since they did not have the passing game USC had.

In '05, even if we had beaten Michigan I am pretty sure Joe would have again, incredibly, been aced out of playing for the NC despite an undefeated season.

Yet people continually say Joe was over the hill, washed up, old fashioned, out of date, behind the times, too old…….

 

[bdgan]

Yet people continually say Joe was over the hill, washed up, old fashioned, out of date, behind the times, too old…….

To be fair he wasn't even healthy enough to travel to recruit. I'm convinced that he still had success because of his assistants and living off of his reputation. The early 2000s were horrendous but all things considered he finished on a high note wrt football. 64-20 from 2005 until his termination. 3 top 10 finishes and two BiG titles.

Amazingly things were looking good going forward. O'Brien's first year we finished 8-4 in spite of Freeh agency and all the controversy. I've always thought we would have won the BiG again in 2012 if that hadn't happened. Adding back Redd, Fortt, Brown, & Fera would have definitely meant wins vs Ohio & Virginia and IMO probably vs OSU & Nebraska. Joe also had a top 5 recruiting class before the Sandusky disaster.

Bottom line is Joe stayed too long, the early 2000s were a disaster, but somehow he pulled it together for his final 6+ years.

 

[SLion]

Bo Callahan worries me. Dude will probably be drafted 1st overall.

Bo sucks. He is absolutely not even close to talent level of Paul Blake, former PSU QB.

 

[The Spin Meister]

To be fair he wasn't even healthy enough to travel to recruit. I'm convinced that he still had success because of his assistants and living off of his reputation. The early 2000s were horrendous but all things considered he finished on a high note wrt football. 64-20 from 2005 until his termination. 3 top 10 finishes and two BiG titles.

Amazingly things were looking good going forward. O'Brien's first year we finished 8-4 in spite of Freeh agency and all the controversy. I've always thought we would have won the BiG again in 2012 if that hadn't happened. Adding back Redd, Fortt, Brown, & Fera would have definitely meant wins vs Ohio & Virginia and IMO probably vs OSU & Nebraska. Joe also had a top 5 recruiting class before the Sandusky disaster.

Bottom line is Joe stayed too long, the early 2000s were a disaster, but somehow he pulled it together for his final 6+ years.

We only had one loss when the scandal broke. A top ten finish likely. And a solid base with a good recruiting class coming in.

Yes he used his assistants. That’s what head coaches do….

 

[ryoder1]

To be fair he wasn't even healthy enough to travel to recruit. I'm convinced that he still had success because of his assistants and living off of his reputation. The early 2000s were horrendous but all things considered he finished on a high note wrt football. 64-20 from 2005 until his termination. 3 top 10 finishes and two BiG titles.

Amazingly things were looking good going forward. O'Brien's first year we finished 8-4 in spite of Freeh agency and all the controversy. I've always thought we would have won the BiG again in 2012 if that hadn't happened. Adding back Redd, Fortt, Brown, & Fera would have definitely meant wins vs Ohio & Virginia and IMO probably vs OSU & Nebraska. Joe also had a top 5 recruiting class before the Sandusky disaster.

Bottom line is Joe stayed too long, the early 2000s were a disaster, but somehow he pulled it together for his final 6+ years.

Not sure how much coaching he was doing in his last 10 years. I wonder what his succession plan was if all the Sandusky crap did not happen. Was he going to retire at the end of 2011? He got cancer so that would of forced it. Was Jay going to be the guy? I don't think Curley or Spanier were going to tell him you can't hire Jay to be the HC.

 

[lazydave841]

Not sure how much coaching he was doing in his last 10 years. I wonder what his succession plan was if all the Sandusky crap did not happen. Was he going to retire at the end of 2011? He got cancer so that would of forced it. Was Jay going to be the guy? I don't think Curley or Spanier were going to tell him you can't hire Jay to be the HC.

I don't believe there was a succession plan. Nobody knew about the cancer until he died IIRC. He was scared to retire after watching Bear hang it up and die within a year.