Will we be a top 20 team this coming football season?

[Jerademan74]

No surprise that we have become a second tier team following the aftermath of the Sandusky scandal and NCAA sanctions fallout. Whether any of this was proper or not is not the intended subject of this post. I for one am sick and tired of having to play with 1 hand behind our backs against some B1G teams who were right there trying to cherry pick our best players at a time when we were fighting for our football program existence. That is the true definition of "kicking us when we were down"! We thank Bill O'Brien and key heroic players for their actions for saving our program at that critical junction!

The sanctions have finally been lifted and James Franklin and staff have done a great job in recruiting some top notch players who should theoretically put us back on par with most (or all) teams in the B1G. The real question is whether the new team chemistry can come together quickly enough during the 2015 season and result in Penn State re-emerging in the top 20 polls by the end of the season? I know we will obviously again have a very young team, and even though the sanctions are lifted, we likely still won't have the full 85 scholarship players with back-up strength at every position. Despite this, WILL we (not CAN we) become a nationally ranked team this coming year?
This post was edited on 4/4 11:03 AM by Jerademan74

 

[bmw199]

Emphatic Yes

9-10 wins. getting lucky more

 

[LionsandBear]

Top 25, yes. Top 20, possible.

9 wins gets us in the Top 25. Anything more gets us inside the Top 20. If the OL plays well and injuries are minimal, then I think we can make a major bowl. I wish the Fall was here already!!

 

[fairgambit]

No. We're still lacking depth. If it happens Franklin is COY candidate.***

****

 

[LinebackerU]

Yes....

schedule will get us wins early and team actual has a 2 deep now with a good bit of experience. Some young talent will step up as well, Breneman back will be huge as well. Ithink we get 9-10 wins and finish around 20.

 

[canuckhal]

Not to later in the season. Pollsters will show no love with our sked. A win over either OSU or MSU would be nice and get us there. That said, I am excited about this year. If O-line holds, should have dynamic offense and a pretty good defense. Special team return might be special, but kicking game is a question mark in a close contest.

 

[PennStateTurf2002]

If we come out hot and win with style points in September then it is possible they may want to see PSU ranked for the clash in Columbus.

 

[GulfCoastLion]

Likely a year away from Top 20.


Won't rehash what others have stated, but with the weakness in out of conference schedule, we will not likely see Top 20 this year. Even if we go 6-0 going into the Ohio State game, we will likely barely crack the Top 20 with our 6th win IMO. We will likely lose to Ohio State, Michigan State and either Michigan, Northwestern, or both IMO. If we end up with 9 wins and a bowl victory for 10-3, then yes we can crack the Top 20. If we end up with 9 wins, bowl win or not, we won't be in the Top 20 because of weakness of schedule IMO. Now 2016 is a different story and should be the year experience and expectations of Top 10-20 are more realistic.

 

[kgilbert78]

Re: Likely a year away from Top 20.

I concur with this analysis--and we could always trip up and lose one of those first 6.

 

[blion72]

Re: Likely a year away from Top 20.

the team has a lot of talent (even if a little unproven) in several positions. if you just look at recruit rankings, only the OSU team has more high rated talent. you would have to say at QB and WR/TE we are elite and the best in the BIG. OSU has actually demonstrated theirs on the field, so more than potential. I think a lot comes down to improvement in the OL and ST's along with minimum drop off in DEF.

OL - looks to be more stable this year, although it did lose the two best players in Smith and Diffenbach - both injured much of the season. with the right blend I could see the OL getting to at least an average level, which will make a huge impact on passing game. this topic has been beat up, and I guess we will now a lot more in August. my chief concern here is that all the discussion around the OL is about the same guys who played in the middle last year - as opposed to new more talented players to take over in the middle positions. this is an area where a true FR might challenge.

ST - will we have at least at effective FG kicking % as last year. This was huge in a few games. Punting was easily among the worst in D1 CFB - and not even at a decent D3 level. I think BW game may show where we stand with punting a bit. KO returns were again a major weakness last year, and not who is going to step up in this area. we may need one of the TRUE FR to come in here, since everyone on the current roster already had their chance to show as return guys, and you saw the result in 2014. not sure that skill improves with age like a fine wine. KO and punt coverage was also an issue in several games (bad punt and coverage gave MD the impetus to win against us).

DEF fall off - we lose many of the main leaders on D = Hull, Amos, Barnes and CJO. I could see our OFF being a little better and the DEF falling off.

Last year at this time, the consensus of this forum was an 8 win to possibly 9 win season. we actually won 6 games (excluding bowl), so about 2 wins short of our consensus. I see this team as around 8 wins with + 9 wins to upside, and 7 wins on downside. 8 Wins and a bowl win puts us in top 25.

 

[PSUJim]

IF we get solid special teams play, and IF Hack has the type....

of season that would be expected from a potential #1 NFL QB, (and our OL continues to improve) then there is no reason we shouldn't be a top 20 team with the condition of the big 10. IMHO, our defense will be just as good as last year, and had we been more consistent on offense a season ago, I believe we would have been 10-2 at the worst.

 

[dawgduice]

IFFFFFFFFFF the OL improves to being just "OK" then we will make top 20. We will not be great team but should win at least 9.

PS. I do NOT have much faith in the OL (sort of like seeing is believing). If a weak team can rush 4-5 guys and put pressure on Hack, as happened much of last year, well 500 might be a challenge.

 

[mickey_PSU]

The best way to evaluate the offensive line is to go back to last year's film and watch the development as the season progressed. The improvements weren't dramatic but they were there. the problem was, by the time they finally got a bit better, other parts of our team weren't as good- Hack, for example, was a bit gun shy from getting clobbered all season. The receivers were young and weren't consistent in their mechanics and routes; the tight ends could not block... but go back and watch the Ohio State game. The drive to tie the game int the 4th quarter was w/o Dieffenbach; watch the bowl game, once again, Dief wasn't available for 3/4 of the game yet the line performed well. Replacing Donovan Smith will be tough but there are guys, albeit young, who have been part of the system for a year- not ooptimal but better than last year. Those 15 extra practices were invaluable to this team and this year there are 12 lineman involved in spring practice (last year, there were 7 or 8).

The TEs will be improved and with the return of Breneman (the best blocking TE, imo, on the team), we'll be better.

All that being said, the line is still young; the special teams are a complete unknown and we did lose some key guys on defense. I believe the line will be much better. I think our special teams will be better with the infusion of young talent and the defense- I dont' see the huge dropoff others are expecting.

Here's the main thing- when we lose, when other teams lose and how we look in those other wins and losses, no matter the opponent. Those are all things I can't predict and all will impact where we're ranked. Final guess- we'll be in the top 25 by season's end with a possibility of making the top 20 depending on those factors I just mentioned.

 

[Jerademan74]

Mickey: Good analysis. IMO, we should be better at RB, KO and punt returns, WR, TE and HOPEFULLY OL. I think we will be not as good on the LB, FG. The improvement at OL is really the key aspect for improvement, and I am not convinced we can significantly improve with the same guys who looked the weakest last year, and 2 new inexperienced replacements. All-in-all, I believe we still win 9 games, get a New Year's Day Bowl, and finish top 20.The following year we can be top 10, but only if Hack stays!

 

[mgkpsu]

No. 8 wins in the regular season with a sorry schedule, and then maybe win the bowl game. Better luck next year if Hackenberg stays and remains healthy.