WrestleStat Rankings - FINAL 2017

[andegre]

Here are the final rankings for the 2017 season. I'm burned out, gonna take some time off.

Wrestler Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

Tournament Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament

Dual Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Hodge Watch: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/hodge

Statistical Rankings: http://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/statistical

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Thanks for all of your work, andegre!

 

[lions#1]

I'm curious how you determined Gabe Dean was the number one ranked 184 wrestler after losing to Bo Nickal in the finals Saturday night. Bo had 27.5 points to Dean's 18 for the championship and he had Falls over Brooks and Dudley in the semifinals. Also, Bo was Flo's wrestler of the week. Clearly, Bo had the superior tournament, won the head to head matchup, and wrestled better competition during the season. Just asking?

 

[Tom McAndrew]

I'm curious how you determined Gabe Dean was the number one ranked 184 wrestler after losing to Bo Nickal in the finals Saturday night.

andre can answer for himself, but I'll offer that they are computer generated rankings, based on all the matches that took place this season.

184 is not the only example where the ranking does not align with NCAA outcomes.

125: Gilman - 1, Cruz - 4
133: NaTo - 1, Clark - 2
165: IMar - 1, I. Jordan - 2, Massa - 3, V. Joseph - 4
174: BoJo - 1, Z. Valencia - 2, Realbuto - 3, M. Hall - 4

 

[lions#1]

andre can answer for himself, but I'll offer that they are computer generated rankings, based on all the matches that took place this season.

184 is not the only example where the ranking does not align with NCAA outcomes.

125: Gilman - 1, Cruz - 4
133: NaTo - 1, Clark - 2
165: IMar - 1, I. Jordan - 2, Massa - 3, V. Joseph - 4
174: BoJo - 1, Z. Valencia - 2, Realbuto - 3, M. Hall - 4

To me having Bo ranked 2nd seemed like the biggest miss.
Bo wrestled 9 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#1 - beat Dean
#4 - beat Dudley three times including Pin in Semifinals
#5 - beat Brooks twice both by Pins (38 seconds at Iowa and Semifinals)
#6 - beat Boyd
#8 - split with Martin

Dean wrestled 6 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#2 - lost to Bo
#6 - beat Boyd three times
#8 - beat Martin
#9 - beat Zavatsky (TF)

My computer and eyes balls believes Bo had the better year.
Doesn't matter much as Bo is the 2017 NCAA champion at 184!!

Edit: Bo won all six of his top 5 match ups with 3 Falls!
Dean lost his only top 5 match up

 

[pish69]

To me having Bo ranked 2nd seemed like the biggest miss.
Bo wrestled 9 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#1 - beat Dean
#4 - beat Dudley three times including Pin in Semifinals
#5 - beat Brooks twice both by Pins (38 seconds at Iowa and Semifinals)
#6 - beat Boyd
#8 - split with Martin

Dean wrestled 6 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#2 - lost to Bo
#6 - beat Boyd three times
#8 - beat Martin
#9 - beat Zavatsky (TF)

My computer and eyes balls believes Bo had the better year.
Doesn't matter much as Bo is the 2017 NCAA champion at 184!!

You are 100% correct. I won't speak for andre but I believe his formula is not just from this year..it's every match they ever wrestled including redshirt years

 

[dicemen99]

To me having Bo ranked 2nd seemed like the biggest miss.
Bo wrestled 9 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#1 - beat Dean
#4 - beat Dudley three times including Pin in Semifinals
#5 - beat Brooks twice both by Pins (38 seconds at Iowa and Semifinals)
#6 - beat Boyd
#8 - split with Martin

Dean wrestled 6 matches against top 10 guys in the final rankings winning all but one:
#2 - lost to Bo
#6 - beat Boyd three times
#8 - beat Martin
#9 - beat Zavatsky (TF)

My computer and eyes balls believes Bo had the better year!

Both Bo and Dean had similar bonus percentage seasons, both lost to 1 guy - Dean the #2, Bo the #8. Bo probably had the harder schedule and bonused more top guys, plus H-T-H, so overall this season I think looking at this season only, Bo has a slight edge.

Problem is there is a starting point for this season and Dean probably had a nice lead. Not sure how the algorithm works, but my guess is that this is what is coming into play. Very difficult model I would think - but Andrege can probably answer that better. You can't have everyone start at "0" because it takes you a chunk of your season to get rankings that are relevant, but what is the balance between weighting recent results and results from farther back. I think SHP's start from scratch - would be interested in seeing his final results.

Anyway, the rankings look pretty good to me except for Suriano's (I would guess that's also because of his low start compared to others) when you consider an entire season. Pretty impossible to get a computer model that would do better.

EDIT - just checked SHP's final rankings and they do have Nickal as #1, Suriano a little higher and probably are a little better overall than Andrege's in terms of a final ranking. But again, as SHP will tell you, his rankings are pretty meaningless for the first half of the season, while Andrege has tweaked his so that they are pretty good - with the returnees at least - pretty much a couple weeks in.

Maybe there is a solution in the middle where at some point in the season the starting point becomes a non factor - don't know enough about making algorithms like this one to venture a guess.