2011 vs Today

[AgSurfer]

I got thinking about how Penn State did when they won the national championship in 2011. Here is my recollection. If there is an error, please correct.

125 - DNP
133 - 3rd
141 - DNP
149 - 2nd
157 - 2nd
165 - DNP
174 - 3rd
184 - 1st
197 - DNP
Hwy - DNP

This performance plus the bonus points was sufficient to win the title. I think that the team we have now should be capable of matching or exceeding the same which means they should have a good chance to do it again if all of the other teams have similar performances as they did in 2011. Comments?

 

[El-Jefe]

I got thinking about how Penn State did when they won the national championship in 2011. Here is my recollection. If there is an error, please correct.

125 - DNP
133 - 3rd
141 - DNP
149 - 2nd
157 - 2nd
165 - DNP
174 - 3rd
184 - 1st
197 - DNP
Hwy - DNP

This performance plus the bonus points was sufficient to win the title. I think that the team we have now should be capable of matching or exceeding the same which means they should have a good chance to do it again if all of the other teams have similar performances as they did in 2011. Comments?

Your memory is correct. Here are the brackets:
http://www.wrestlingstats.com/ncaa/brackets.htm

I don't think we can count on Oklahoma State placing at only 3 weights.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

I got thinking about how Penn State did when they won the national championship in 2011. Here is my recollection. If there is an error, please correct.

125 - DNP
133 - 3rd
141 - DNP
149 - 2nd
157 - 2nd
165 - DNP
174 - 3rd
184 - 1st
197 - DNP
Hwy - DNP

This performance plus the bonus points was sufficient to win the title. I think that the team we have now should be capable of matching or exceeding the same which means they should have a good chance to do it again if all of the other teams have similar performances as they did in 2011. Comments?

Doubt a team score of 107.5 gets it done this year. Too much strength from the other OSU's.

 

[AgSurfer]

Looking at the placings that year, Cornell and Iowa both had 5 place winners in addition to Penn State, but our overall standings were better, hence the title.

Ok State, Iowa and Ohio State should all have finalists barring injury or a complete meltdown. I'm pretty sure that Cornell and Missouri will have their best guys in the finals too. I think it's conceivable that there is enough talent to go around such that nobody will be strong enough to run away with the tournament. Consequently, a performance similar to 2011 just might be good enough to win again.

 

[RoarLions1]

Doubt a team score of 107.5 gets it done this year. Too much strength from the other OSU's.

So, what does everyone think it will take (given it's early, I know)?

I'm of the opinion that 107 might be enough. There's more talent at the top, by more teams, diluting the total team points. I'm also thinking bonus points will be a big player. If we can get 8+ points more than any other team, we'll be at or near the top.

 

[El-Jefe]

Flo currently projects, without bonus points:
Rank School Pts
1 Ok State 93
2 Penn State 91.5
3 Ohio State 88.5
4 Iowa 87

15.5 bonus points is completely reasonable on a team with Zain, Jason, Bo, Cenzo, etc., and gets us to 107.

Can the Pokes find another 14 bonus to tie? Or the Tanners and Hawks find enough to get to 107?

Yeah, 107 might be enough.

 

[SRATH]

Fun to speculate, but American won't be 5th. I would like to think we will have more guys placing so I believe we will be around 120. Will that be enough.....???? Easy to see both OSU teams with the same places plus others.....will they embrace the bonus mentality? Easy to talk about, but tough to do unless it is ingrained in what you do every day.

 

[dunkej01]

has this season even started...feels like it hasnt with the lack of big duals early. that changes the next seven days.

I wasnt overly impressed with Ok St against cornell. Iowa and Mizzou have the injury bug, tO$U is top heavy and short on scorers at a few weights. Season just feels wide open to me.

to the question....I think the winner is in the 120s......and thats us in my opinion. 2 sure fire finalists (149 & 157) and maybe a 3rd (184) with an outside straight at a fourth (125). I really think Hwt and 197 to AA in 5-8 range. I think 165 and 174 have blood round written all over them. then the enigmas of 133-141 just could be the icing on the top.

So yeah things break right we are near 130 pts. Things go about as I think we are 110ish and if the house burns down we are still 100ish.

 

[kingslayer_85]

Not to impressed with the pokes
Think our challenge is from Iowa and OSU though I don't see them coming close to the 120 I think we are capable of.

 

[CSauertiegPSU]

has this season even started...feels like it hasnt with the lack of big duals early. that changes the next seven days.

I wasnt overly impressed with Ok St against cornell. Iowa and Mizzou have the injury bug, tO$U is top heavy and short on scorers at a few weights. Season just feels wide open to me.

to the question....I think the winner is in the 120s......and thats us in my opinion. 2 sure fire finalists (149 & 157) and maybe a 3rd (184) with an outside straight at a fourth (125). I really think Hwt and 197 to AA in 5-8 range. I think 165 and 174 have blood round written all over them. then the enigmas of 133-141 just could be the icing on the top.

So yeah things break right we are near 130 pts. Things go about as I think we are 110ish and if the house burns down we are still 100ish.

Not even sure I'd call it an outside shot at 125. It's as good a shot as anyone not named Thomas Gilman.

 

[Real-Lion]

Not even sure I'd call it an outside shot at 125. It's as good a shot as anyone not named Thomas Gilman.

Nick S. will beat Gilman...Bet on it....Go to practice and watch him wrestle Nico....

 

[PSU Mike]

Not to impressed with the pokes
Think our challenge is from Iowa and OSU though I don't see them coming close to the 120 I think we are capable of.

I just can't envision Iowa seriously contending. Two Jekyll/Hyde guys at weights that haven't shown progression in the program of late, one or two guys unproven early in their careers, two guys coming off injury, and one guy that has a chance to fall a place to another contender. It would all have to fall just right, and it hasn't of late. We'll see. I'd rather it be PSU/Iowa than any of the others.

 

[a_mshaffer]

Nick S. will beat Gilman...Bet on it....Go to practice and watch him wrestle Nico....

I like it that he is on that level Spyker, I am more concerned about Nico style as it compares to Gilman's - not similar at all.

 

[nitlion6]

I do not believe 107.5 wins this year's tournament. We've won with 107 and 109, but we would have lost 2 of the other 3 titles won with those scores.
It isn't going to shock me to see 2 OSUs break the 100 point mark.
The Lions might not have 5 finalists, but reasonably expecting 4 is not out of line and 4 additional AAs is as possible. So if the team gets to what I believe possible/probable, just eclipsing the 100 point mark isn't getting it done for a poke or a nut.

 

[jtothemfp]

I could see second place getting to 107. Agree that it's much more team-top-heavy this year, with fewer individual studs spread around on diff programs. I can picture some really low scores at spots 7-10, possibly 2 or more with < 40, which doesn't happen a lot.

But I think we're more likely to look like 2014 than 2011.
- Say Zain & Nolf = Taylor & Ruth at surefire champs.
- I think Nickal & Suriano are looking like strong Finals contenders, but let's have them = Nico's 3rd
- Then you got Zain & Brown's 5ths and Smack & English's 7ths to fill with = McCutcheon, Nevills, Vincenzo, Cortez (still hopeful), Gulibon (still really hopeful) and Morelli/Rasheed

Looking more like the 2014 recipe of a couple top-shelfers and 4+ at 5-8.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Flo currently projects, without bonus points:
Rank School Pts
1 Ok State 93
2 Penn State 91.5
3 Ohio State 88.5
4 Iowa 87

15.5 bonus points is completely reasonable on a team with Zain, Jason, Bo, Cenzo, etc., and gets us to 107.

Can the Pokes find another 14 bonus to tie? Or the Tanners and Hawks find enough to get to 107?

Yeah, 107 might be enough.

It's early but I agree that 107 might do it. Right now tOSU has 3 weights with no one ranked in the top 20. I think they will have a hard time getting over 100 points. Iowa is a bit of a wildcard right now due to injuries to Clark and Stoll, but even with them 107 is a stretch. OK State though can definitely get to 107. Current Intermat rankings have all 10 of their guys ranked in the top 12. Personally I think we win for a couple of reasons. First bonus points, of course. On top of that I expect Cutch to make AA and at least one AA between 133, 141, 165, & 174. That should us close to 120 and I don't see anyone else getting past 110.

 

[Pennstate1985]

So, what does everyone think it will take (given it's early, I know)?

I'm of the opinion that 107 might be enough. There's more talent at the top, by more teams, diluting the total team points. I'm also thinking bonus points will be a big player. If we can get 8+ points more than any other team, we'll be at or near the top.

Roar, your statement in bold is not a mutually exclusive proposition though. I can foresee the top teams taking from the lesser teams this year in a haves/have nots situation. I see a steep drop off after the first 4-5 teams.

I expect the winning team to be north of 115 with the 2nd place team around 107-110..

 

[RoarLions1]

So, what does everyone think it will take (given it's early, I know)?

I'm of the opinion that 107 might be enough. There's more talent at the top, by more teams, diluting the total team points. I'm also thinking bonus points will be a big player. If we can get 8+ points more than any other team, we'll be at or near the top.

Roar, your statement in bold is not a mutually exclusive proposition though. I can foresee the top teams taking from the lesser teams this year in a haves/have nots situation. I see a steep drop off after the first 4-5 teams.

I expect the winning team to be north of 115 with the 2nd place team around 107-110..

I don't see it that way right now. The top-5 are PSU, OSU, Iowa, tOSU and Va Tech. A healthy Mizzou (even without Miklus, but Cox as champ), a senior-laden Nebraska team, Cornell (Dean and Palacio as finalists), Lehigh (broad talent, no finalists), and Illinois (IMar as Champ) round out the top-10, and I doubt the second place team gets to 107.

Remember, our 107.5 in 2011 included 7.5 "free" Advancement Points, which are not awarded now. If the 2011 brackets were awarded points with todays rules, we would have won with ONLY 100.0!! And Cornell would have been 2nd with 87.5.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Remember, our 107.5 in 2011 included 7 "free" Advancement Points, which are not awarded now. If the 2011 brackets were awarded points with todays rules, we would have won with ONLY 100.5!! And Cornell would have been 2nd with 87.5.

Kinda correct but not exactly. There are no more first round byes so our wrestlers who got "free" points would wrestle in the first round and have an opportunity to get advancement points + bonus. One might argue that we would have ended up with >107.5 under today's rules given how many bonus points we rack up in the early rounds.

 

[RoarLions1]

Kinda correct but not exactly. There are no more first round byes so our wrestlers who got "free" points would wrestle in the first round and have an opportunity to get advancement points + bonus. One might argue that we would have ended up with >107.5 under today's rules given how many bonus points we rack up in the early rounds.

I don't understand...

If we take the 2011 brackets, exactly as is, and apply 2016-17 scoring rules, we have;
Pataky - .5 Point
Long - 17.5 Points
A. Alton - 5 Points
Molinaro - 17 Points
Taylor - 18.5 Points
Ruth - 17.5 Points
Wright - 22 Points
Wade - 2 Points

For a total of 100.0 points.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Kinda correct but not exactly. There are no more first round byes so our wrestlers who got "free" points would wrestle in the first round and have an opportunity to get advancement points + bonus. One might argue that we would have ended up with >107.5 under today's rules given how many bonus points we rack up in the early rounds.

I don't think you understand what Roar is saying. It used to be (I think 2012 was the last year) that when you won your first round match it was worth 2 advancement points as it was a win after a bye. Same thing in the wrestlebacks where a first round win was worth 1 advancement point. Under today's scoring we would have only scored 100.0 points back in 2011 (Pataky won his first wrestleback so would have received an extra half point).

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

Yeah, you guys are right. I was thinking this was back in the day when there were still byes in the first round (as the brackets were not all the same size due to how they did wildcards then) and they used to give advancements for a first round bye if you won the next round. Sorry.

 

[RoarLions1]

One other change they made, but waited until 2014 to do it...is that no seeded wrestler (they seed to 16) shall ever have a pigtail.