2018 got more Interesting...scUM lands an AA

[nitlion6]

They aren't in the title conversation. Not this past year, next year or the year after that. They might finish higher than than most, but 5th is not good enough in Iowa.

If they aren't in the conversation why are we talking about them in a UofM thread?

It is a bit silly to argue whether or not they are in the conversation when we are conversing about them.

 

[jtothemfp]

In the last five years, only three teams have attained 7 or more AA's, and all three teams were over 100 points. 7 AA's is hard to do, and I'd bet the under all day every day on that. The problem that Michigan has with that lineup, while very good, is that they have a lot of AA/R12 type guys but no impossibly good studs. What usually trips teams like that up is a bad seed or matchup at nationals that sends one of those upper echelon guys into the consi bracket early and where they meet another upper echelon type guy and go R12 or take 7th instead of 4th. Not saying what you typed can't happen, but history says it will be difficult.

I respect this skepticism, and that's a great stat about only 3 teams in 5 years with 7 AA's. Suriano's injury helped keep that from 4, but that underscores your point as well: injuries are always also in play.

I think it's kinda fun to try to put that Team Odds context into play while doing projections for individuals' finishes, but lining them up beside each other & rolling up a projected Team Score. To do so, you have to analyze the individual vs the weight class first, and then later apply the 'so...which one of these dudes is most likely to underachieve that projection, because history says the odds of a Team getting 7 AAs is tough.' So I'll give it a try!

125 Projecting Assad to R24 doesn't give enough points to warrant application of a Teams Odds AA Demerit (TOAAD, if you will)

133 Micic probably doesn't qualify as an Impossibly Good Stud, but with Clark gone, NaTo's the only guy he hasn't been able to beat. Maybe Brock could avenge him, and he could still get stuffed by NaTo AND Gross, but I don't see how his floor is any lower than 4. Except, of course, via injury. I guess I gotta find a way to quantify Injury as a Team Odds AA Demerit (TOADD) possibility.

141. See 125. Although Bloodround seems high on incoming TRFR Ben Freeman. Still, a conservative projection.

149. Same.

157. Pantaleo looked goood at the US Open this weekend. Maybe he's still out of both Nolf & Kemerer's league, but Lavallee, Joe Smith & Berger? Eh, maybe. He did look good this weekend at the US Open, but your point is more about floors, and given his awful 3-pin finish from the Semis in 2016, added to the probable weight bump, he's a still a viable candidate to plummet out of AA with an injury-free TOAAD. Let's say 4 out of 10 TOAADs.

165. Massa's floor can't be any lower than 3, can it? And the ceiling is definitely Champ. Pretty close to Impossibly Good, despite IMar & Cenzo. Not a TOAAD candidate.

174. Davonte Mahomes sounds like he might not even be back after injury, and definitely isn't likely to unseat the surprising Myles Amine, who beat AA's Ethan Ramos & Realbuto, along with Ryan Preisch and new AA Residori. Places 5-8 all clear out, and Zahid may bump out as well. Who comes in to knock him off the podium? I'll give him 4 out 10 TOAAD's to go with Pantaleo.

184. Abounader's never been AA yet, but he's put up a couple beast seasons with multiple wins over multiple AAs, such as Steinhaus, Courts, Dudley, Brooks, Bret Pfarr, Kasper, Miklus. Never beat Ruth, Nate Brown or Gabe Dean. In 2016 Dude went 26-4 & earned the 4-seed before getting banged up at B1Gs and going 3-2 R12 at MSG. 184 returns only BoNicks, MyMar, Drew Foster, and maybe Zahid. I put him very conservatively at 8. A healthy Abounader (which he presumably will be after the RS year healing) is a dang handful, and a very poor podium slip candidate in his final year. 2 out 10 TOADDs!

197. Beazley squeaked onto the podium with 7-6 win over Wilcke in R12, then got majored by Weigel & decisioned by Wolf 2-1. But that was after starting out with two pins, including one of Studebaker. 197 clears out and returns Moore, Haught & Weigel from the podium. He's finished school, starts a flexible grad program, returns to his home state, and massively upgrades his room with Coon, Abounader & Bormet. Repeating place 8 seems conservatively doable. 4 out 10 TOAADs.

285. Please. Coon was a 4-seed as a TRFR, but lost two OT bouts, to Telford & Jeremy Johnson, to finish R12. In 2015 & 2016, he finished 2nd & 3rd, with his only loss to Gwiz both times. If we're gonna use the Impossibly Good label on anyone, it's gotta be Snyder, but is Coon's floor any lower than 3? 0 out 10 TOADDs!

In summary, applying the logic that *somebody* out of those 7 projected AAs has got to slip off the podium, Pantaleo, Amine & Beazley seem like the strongest candidates, with 4 Team Odds AA Demerits each. Still, each of them have already earned AA once and each are likely to be ranked in the Top-5 at the start of the season. It'd be hard to label any of them R12 guys, but I'll accept they have a 4 out of 10 chance to disappoint.

Micic, Massa & Coon...only injury is likely to prevent them from the Cleveland podium, and Abounader has proven he can beat almost anybody. I'm personally looking forward to seeing him test himself against our fluid-hipped star who can throw even the biggest studs.

Thanks for the cool stat and the impetus to crush an hour of my workday playing internet pundit! Peace.