A few ideas on the P4P list...

[T J]

I totally get where you're coming from, all else being equal, bonus points are definitely a tiebreaker. I think we should also take into account the level of competition in a particular weight. We all agree some weights aren't quite as loaded as others.

True enough ev_flores0331.

Regarding individual awards, competition can matter a lot.

Regarding team awards, total points matter.
A Fall against a new Frosh counts the same as a Fall against last season's national champ.​

As many have mentioned, it all comes down to criteria....

and hopefully not dictator or socialist run countries' crooked refs and judges. ​

 

[NittanyLion84]

I totally get where you're coming from, all else being equal, bonus points are definitely a tiebreaker. I think we should also take into account the level of competition in a particular weight. We all agree some weights aren't quite as loaded as others.

A wrestler can only control his own performances, he has no control over the wrestlers put in front of him. We have seen in most years where guys avoid certain weight classes to improve their own chances.

 

[RoarLions1]

The Most Dominant Wrestler calculation 1) rewards wins, 2) rewards bonus point wins more, 3) penalizes losses. Not sure what else there is.

 

[ev_flores0331]

The Most Dominant Wrestler calculation 1) rewards wins, 2) rewards bonus point wins more, 3) penalizes losses. Not sure what else there is.

I'm on board with that. My list isn't about who is most dominant in their weight class, it's actually a P4P list, so I think the #1 guy could beat the #2 guy if they were at the same weight, #2 could beat #3, and so on. Utter speculation, but that's what makes it entertaining, right?

 

[RoarLions1]

The Most Dominant Wrestler calculation 1) rewards wins, 2) rewards bonus point wins more, 3) penalizes losses. Not sure what else there is.

I'm on board with that. My list isn't about who is most dominant in their weight class, it's actually a P4P list, so I think the #1 guy could beat the #2 guy if they were at the same weight, #2 could beat #3, and so on. Utter speculation, but that's what makes it entertaining, right?

You missed it. The MDW metric IS a P4P measure...and the only one mentioned in this thread that gives us a quantifiable way to compare wrestlers between weight classes.

Not busting on anyone for their opinions, all have merit, and add color to the discussion. And I, for one, love reading all the perspectives...some crazy, some unreasonable, but most are thought-provoking and interesting.

I will be following this post with thoughts on how a competitive weight class, or other criteria, plays into P4P discussions...just to keep the confabulation (sorry, heard this word once, and was dying to use it in a sentence) going.

 

[ev_flores0331]

I'm not sure if the MDW metric factors in the quality of competition. Kyle Snyder can beat guys on the MDW list. Morgan McIntosh is listed ahead of J'den Cox and IMar is ranked below Nolf although he leads the series 2-1. Those are a few reasons I don't consider it an accurate measure.

That said, I get where you're coming from, too.

 

[El-Jefe]

I'm not sure if the MDW metric factors in the quality of competition. Kyle Snyder can beat guys on the MDW list. Morgan McIntosh is listed ahead of J'den Cox and IMar is ranked below Nolf although he leads the series 2-1. Those are a few reasons I don't consider it an accurate measure.

That said, I get where you're coming from, too.

Baseball statisticians now quantify relief pitcher usage as high or low leverage, as a means of determining how important a reliever's appearance is (and ultimately, when managers should use their best pitchers).

Meaning: every MLB pitcher should be able to avoid giving up 3 runs in the 9th inning with the bases empty against the opponent's 7-8-9 hitters. You don't need your best pitcher for that. It's much harder to preserve a 1-run lead in the 7th inning with 2 runners on, nobody out, against the middle of the 1927 Yankees lineup.

Theoretically this could work for wrestling as well: a win in the NCAA Finals is more important than some random dual. Beating a returning placer should be harder than a shirting true freshman in an Open. Etc.

Applying a factor like this to the Most Dominant equation would still be imperfect but would make the metric truer to this type of discussion.

Somebody with more time and brains than I have could figure out how to do this.

 

[RoarLions1]

E-J, I don't have more time than you, and certainly am not brainier, but I'll bite with a response. Baseball's LI (Leverage Index) would be impossible to apply to wrestling, imo...but we do have the next best thing!!

The Wrestlestats (Andegre's) model is based on the Elo Rating System, using historical results to determine future outcomes. In that regard it is philosophically the same as LI. I wouldn't touch wrestlestats' comparison tool though until a statistically significant number of matches are wrestled by each competitor, especially freshmen and RS freshmen. 30 or so would be ideal, but we should be getting comfortable at around 20...after wrestlers have a tournament or two, and start wrestling within their conference.

As you stated, nothing is perfect...and even the wrestlestats program doesn't make comparisons between weight classes.

 

[RoarLions1]

I'm not sure if the MDW metric factors in the quality of competition. Kyle Snyder can beat guys on the MDW list. Morgan McIntosh is listed ahead of J'den Cox and IMar is ranked below Nolf although he leads the series 2-1. Those are a few reasons I don't consider it an accurate measure.

That said, I get where you're coming from, too.

Morgan is listed above J'den because he had 74.3% bonus point wins in 2015-16, vs J'den's 67.6% (each with 1 loss). Competition for each wasn't horribly skewed, if anything Morgan had a tougher schedule (14 top-20 guys vs 8 for J'den). 20-20 hindsight being what it is (over-used), he handled Morgan in one match with an awesome, impenetrable defense, but the body-of-work shows close to a toss-up going into their finals match. I'll give J'den the P4P title at 197 too, but his 9 wins-by-decision last year don't support a #2 overall P4P Ranking right now.

Nolf was near 90% in Bonus Point Wins last year, while IMar was closer to 70%. Jason wrestled 9 top-10 guys, while Isaiah wrestled 6. Pretty close. And the comparisons with common opponents, using the always dangerous transitive theory, also shows it too-close to call. I'd give Jason the P4P nod if they were both in the same weight class this year, though it is perfectly reasonable to play it the other way with IMar. Too bad they're not...would have been fun. And as far as 2016-17, since we are discussing P4P for all weight classes, I'll give Jason the higher ranking with all the pre-season confidence I can muster.