Great post, as it uses FACTS. I guess my look at this is opposite some on here though. It's not a bad draw for either wrestler, but an opportunity for each to show what he's got.
Wrestling B1G Tournament Pre-seeds
- Thread starter RoarLions1
- Start date
Paddy has been gradually improving since he returned from injury. I don’t predict a win over Siebrecht, but wouldn’t be surprised if it were a tight match.
Big Ten Tournament is just nuts. Fun matches right from the start. This is gonna be a long week.
Big Ten Tournament is just nuts. Fun matches right from the start. This is gonna be a long week.
It'll definitely be a close match one way or the other. Both guys seem to have a lot of close matches.
The problem with using common sense is it is subjective. 14 Big10 coaches, 14 different subjective perspectives.
Missing a match should not be a personal loss, but if the team losses that match then for seeding purposes the team has a loss. Seed the team's record. Even someone as good as Aaron Brooks last year would not have wanted the 4th seed and stuck wrestling Amine in the semi-finals. Last year, does RBY really want to wrestle DeSanto in the semi-finals?
This year, maybe Levi wrestles against MSU if Bearclaw losing has a negative impact on Levi.
It might be a little hard-assed, but we deal with hard-assed stuff all the time.
It's kinda funny until it aint.... i think Gary has an actual shot.
Of course this won't age well when he loses 17-2 🙄
Every time someone says "just use common sense," it's worth recalling how many of the sport's rules (both on-mat and admin) exist thanks to years or decades of not common sense.
any wrestler with a newly bumb shoulder given Paddy's physicality.
Also worth noting that most of these objective, formula driven models are in response to perceived shortcomings in what I'm sure at the time was thought of as "common sense" seeding.
The line between "common sense" and "coaches' influence/politics" can be awfully thin.
FACTS?! We don't need no stinking facts!!
Amine also lost to tOSU Hepner. I was thinking any big 10 match counted for seeding. They must not?
100 percent agree. And you could argue he got screwed pretty bad against Lewan. I thought he really started to wrestle tough toward the end of the year.
This is not an unreasonable take. DeAugustino had an uninspiring Last Chance Open last weekend: 2-1 win over Indiana backup Michael Spangler (4-6 this year), then 5-1 win over Wyoming Seminary soph Cooper Hilton, then injury defaulted a minute into OT against Goofer backup freshman Troy Spratley (who's an excellent prospect, but still not starting).
Beating DeAugustino would make Steen's path to nationals far easier:
- quarters vs. 3 Ramos (likely loss)
- consis vs. 12 Lujan or 13 Moran --> win locks top 8
If he loses to DeAugustino:
- consis vs. 14 Renteria (likely win)
- loser of 4 Barnett vs 5 McKee -- likely loss, drops him into the mini-tourney for 9th on Day 2, would have to win 2-3 matches to qualify
I think it will be a tight match but will not be surprised at all if Gallagher wins it. I enjoy watching Siebrecht and appreciate him, but he was wearing a shoulder brace vs. Gfeller last weekend and did not wrestle his usual, aggressive, upper-body style. Have to wonder how he’ll do with an ailing shoulder and his game affected. Defensive funk can do only so much for scoring points on offense . . . and like you said, Paddy has been showing improvement. It will come down to whether he can finish cleanly on offense, IMO.
By chalk, and absent bonus points, I score it as:
142 PSU
111.5 Iowa
88.5 Ohio St
83 Nebraska
64.5 Michigan
Caveats:
- I only scored those 5 teams
- I assumed a win after a bye earns the bye’s advance point (1 in champ bracket; 0.5 in consi bracket)
- I wasn’t extremely careful; I may have made a mistake
It was interesting that sometimes a lower seed would score higher by chalk because the lower seed would go L-W-L to the higher seed’s L-Bye-L.
142 PSU
111.5 Iowa
88.5 Ohio St
83 Nebraska
64.5 Michigan
Caveats:
- I only scored those 5 teams
- I assumed a win after a bye earns the bye’s advance point (1 in champ bracket; 0.5 in consi bracket)
- I wasn’t extremely careful; I may have made a mistake
It was interesting that sometimes a lower seed would score higher by chalk because the lower seed would go L-W-L to the higher seed’s L-Bye-L.
I was actually hoping for the 11 vs 6 knowing that would be the matchup...it's very doable and we really don't even know if DeAugustino is able to go at all...
If he can’t go, why would Northwestern send him? If he injury defaults out of his matches he isn’t a lock to get an at large. He will be 6-8 overall if that happens.
If he's still injured, NW might as well take him and wait as long as possible to decide whether or not he wrestles.
Their only other 125 is 13-24 career, with 1 career win over a B10 starter (who went winless for 2 years). He has not yet wrestled this year despite DeAugustino's absences. That guy has no chance of qualifying,
Three weeks ago I might have agreed, but Gallagher has looked considerably better the last few duals and could be a tough out.
Gallagher was dinged up. He's looked a lot better recently. Should be a great first round battle.
I am guessing if he wrestles Levi again, he will probably looked dinged up again.
Someone please tell me why this is a terrible idea. Perhaps because it gives too much to the top 2? We don't want student athletes making competition decisions out of principle? It seems to me that a simple snake draft, where the 1 chooses the 4, then the 2 the 3 then the 6, then the 1 the 5 & 8 and so on would in nearly all cases align competitor incentives with the intention of seeding. But I'm pretty sure I'm not thinking about how creative coaches could game this to their advantage, etc. So tell me why this is dumb. I think it would be super fun as a fan though, and way less complicated.
Let the top two seeds draft the bracket, then there's a random draw for which side they get placed in. It works to split the last slice of birthday cake, why not here!
If you're the 1, why would you draft the 4 when the 14 is available?
The obvious gaming would be drafting to fill specific bracket spots. Mitigated somewhat if the wrestlers drafted names, which would then be seeded by committee within their drafted bracket sides.
There's some entertainment value to be had during draft night, but likely wouldn't improve the wrestling at all.
Of course, if the objection is Amine being seeded 2, this does nothing to address that.
Because you’d wind up having to face who would have been the 4 (or 3, etc) earlier in your bracket then? I guess you could load all the studs on the same quarter of the bracket though, which wouldn’t be ideal. Thanks for pointing out the error in my thinking.
I may be misunderstanding your hypo, but under a system where the wrestlers have a direct role in selecting tourney participants I’d worry about subjecting the wrestlers to the inevitable accusations of trying to game the system, collusion, favoritism, etc. Seems like an undesirable burden and stressor to put on amateur competitors.
Not participants, just seeds. But you could easily make your top drafted competition as the 1 or 2 seed face each other in the first round, which isn’t fair to those guys. So my idea is a dud regardless. I dunno what I was thinking.
Would really like to see it for the kid. Won't likely matter either way in Tulsa but a great reward for a hard season. I can't imagine how hard it would be to know that every dual meet you know you are possibly the only loss.
Significant change to 125.
Gonzales is 17-8 and talented (CA state champ Fargo double champ) ... but he's 0-1 in conference duals. Would not exoect him to retain Heinselman's pre-seed.
Also costs B10 Heinselman's auto-qualfier spot --> Steen must now finish top 8.
Gonzales is 17-8 and talented (CA state champ Fargo double champ) ... but he's 0-1 in conference duals. Would not exoect him to retain Heinselman's pre-seed.
Also costs B10 Heinselman's auto-qualfier spot --> Steen must now finish top 8.
Well true ..BUT I'll actually take it because when Gary goes to the bottom side of the bracket he still needs 2 wins and here he can get one where he most definitely wouldn't otherwise.
Disagree on a couple fronts:
1. Steen needs 2 wins total, not necessarily 2 in consis.
2. Gonzales has had a better career in both HS and college (they're the same year).
3. If this affects Steen's path to nationals, the path became harder.
- If Gonzales is seeded above Steen (i.e., 7-10), then there is no bracket path in which they could meet before both had already qualified for nationals --> no effect.
- If Gonzales is seeded below Steen, then Steen becomes the 10 seed and his entire path changes. His opening opponent would no longer be the injured DeAugustino, and he would need to beat the 8/9 in consis instead of the 12/13.
- The only way Steen's path improves is if he's the 10 seed and loses his opener, vs. losing his opener as the 11. Then he would need to beat the 8/9 instead of the 4/5 in consis. (But that still worse than his path if he beats DeAugustino first).
4. Steen cannot qualify by finishing 9th.
It's top 8 or go home.
Similar threads
