Blueprint for Pitt is in plain sight after Saturday

[tboyer]

It's funny though how often games just do not play out the way we expect.

The last thing anticipated was a completely unknown App. St. QB in his first game to be making reads and throws all over the field like Tom Brady. Geez, the D actually didn't do badly against the App. St. tailback -- held to 84 yards? But who could have planned for that QB.

Also, never would have expected PSU to have difficulty running its offense against the App State D.

Likewise, on Saturday some things will not play out the way we expect. And some of the surprises could be good ones.

My guess is, Pitt will try a:

Short, controlled passing game.

Power rush game and testing the edges with speedy backs. Win special teams. Aggressive, Run down blitzes aimed at disrupting the PS running attack. Force PS wrs to win one-to-one matchups.

App St laid it out there. Let’s see what kind of coaching adjustments are made to counter.

 

[kijanalives]

I posted this on another site...
I know people love to trash Pitt on this site, but to say App State is better is a long stretch. Based on simply recruiting, Pitt is far and away the more talented team. Of course, coaching, motivation, scheme etc are also important. Pitt will not lack for motivation. I know CJF and crew will be working hard to fix their problems, but I am certainly more concerned now than 48 hours ago.

2018 Pitt #46... App State #111
2017 Pitt class #37... App State #107
2016 Pitt class #30... App State #109
2015 Pitt #46... App State #114
2014 Pitt #44...App State #87

That’s a big disparity, however stars disappear the moment kids get on campus. At this point I’d take Satterfield’s staff’s ability to develop players over Duzzi’s.

 

[dbsteel]

Here is a big question...and not trying to be a troll towards Pitt....but maybe Appy State has better athletes than Pitt. I honestly don't know. I don't keep up much with Pitt but Appy State is really really good. On Sat, Appy State's athletes looked as good as ours.
Here are a few thoughts....keep in mind they had 3 points on offense in the 1st 3 quarters...am I right? clean up special teams first...can't let a 100 yard kickoff return. By the 4th quarter our defense was gassed. All the injuries and not having two keys players on defense really hurt....Givens and Shane Simmons.
This was the kind of game that will help our players...right out of the gate they faced serious adversity and pulled through. Very impressed with our kids...and obviously Appy State.
I expect a dog fight on Saturday night for sure.

I don't think Appalachian State is a bad team- in fact they might be pretty decent from what I saw, and based on what they did last year. But they were supposedly young, and the top-top teams in the country, while they may not beat them 66-7...... I'm sure they'd handle them pretty easily, like 31-10. That's what I expected.

There was a point there where we really couldn't stop them, which is a worry. Being gassed and having injuries doesn't cut it as an excuse for me. This was App State. I think Pitt could be big trouble if there is a repeat performance.

 

[AWS1022]

Brain Westbrook did vs the Giants ? broke away, slide down about the 2 or 3 Eagles ran the clock off. I dont recall if they were winning or losing, but if he had scored, the Giants would have had plenty of time to drive the field.

it was vs Dallas, here's the clip

View embedded media

Apparently the Eagles were winning, so that makes a big difference.

 

[indynittany]

In a tie game no running back would take a knee.

I agree. Imagine the grief the coach would get if he told the kid to take a knee and then they blew the field goal. A bad snap. It happens.

 

[KnightSlayer]

I agree. Imagine the grief the coach would get if he told the kid to take a knee and then they blew the field goal. A bad snap. It happens.

Or they kick the FG and Penn State scores a last second TD to win the game. If I remember correctly, hypothetically, there would have been 1:40 on the clock with App State having the ball just outside our goal line. 3 knees by App St and three timeouts by Penn State. There would have been enough time to get in FG range or break a big play and score a TD. The App St coach and player would have been crucified for running out of bounds and not scoring the TD.

 

[Madsol]

Or they kick the FG and Penn State scores a last second TD to win the game. If I remember correctly, hypothetically, there would have been 1:40 on the clock with App State having the ball just outside our goal line. 3 knees by App St and three timeouts by Penn State. There would have been enough time to get in FG range or break a big play and score a TD. The App St coach and player would have been crucified for running out of bounds and not scoring the TD.

One slight correction, we had already used 1 timeout so we would have been able to stop the clock twice. So assuming they make the FG, we get the ball back with less than a minute (probably 45 seconds or so) and no timeouts. But we would only need to get into FG range to try to tie.

 

[PSUeng]

One slight correction, we had already used 1 timeout so we would have been able to stop the clock twice. So assuming they make the FG, we get the ball back with less than a minute (probably 45 seconds or so) and no timeouts. But we would only need to get into FG range to try to tie.

and we get a 52 kick off return. how long did it take us to score our TD. I would believe the coach would get grilled if they then lost. take the TD every day

 

[Madsol]

and we get a 52 kick off return. how long did it take us to score our TD. I would believe the coach would get grilled if they then lost. take the TD every day

Probably agree with you but I'm not as certain as you are. Offenses are just too prolific. You leave a team time to score, especially when you're a big underdog on the road, you're playing with fire.

 

[kijanalives]

The 2012 team followed a bad loss to Ohio with a worse loss to a horrible Virginia team. One of the differences between 2012 PSU and 2018 PSU, is that 2012 PSU lost their opener, while 2018 PSU won their opener.

Did we get lucky? Yes, absolutely. 80 percent of running backs would have taken a knee at the PSU 5 in bounds, then watched as a chip shot extra point distance field goal sailed through the uprights. In fact, had this been a conference game, EVERY team would have done that, as everyone in the Big Ten knows if you give Trace McSorley 1:40, he's going to beat you.

I'll take the win though.

Talk about just throwing numbers out there...80%!!! You’ve got to be (wrong) kidding!
“EVERY” team would’ve done that? Sacrifice 4, possibly seven points at the end of the game? With less than two minutes to go? Sorry, but more than 80% of backs take that TD, whether Belichick tells them to down it or not.

And Trace has done it for us many times, yes.
Except vs OSU last year. And MSU. And Pitt the year before.
And it’s not like he took us 75 yds FTW. W/o Hamler’s ill-advised but profitable return, we’re talking about an 0-1 PSU team.

 

[Madsol]

Talk about just throwing numbers out there...80%!!! You’ve got to be (wrong) kidding!
“EVERY” team would’ve done that? Sacrifice 4, possibly seven points at the end of the game? With less than two minutes to go? Sorry, but more than 80% of backs take that TD, whether Belichick tells them to down it or not.

And Trace has done it for us many times, yes.
Except vs OSU last year. And MSU. And Pitt the year before.
And it’s not like he took us 75 yds FTW. W/o Hamler’s ill-advised but profitable return, we’re talking about an 0-1 PSU team.

So you chastise the poster for just "throwing numbers out there" but then you follow it up with the totally unsupportable conclusion that but for Hamler's return, we lose. Chase took us 75 yards vs Iowa last year with virtually the same amount of time and the same number of timeouts. Not necessarily a guarantee that he would have done it again against App St but at least one counterpoint to your faulty presumption.

 

[marshall23]

My guess is, Pitt will try a:

Short, controlled passing game.

Power rush game and testing the edges with speedy backs. Win special teams. Aggressive, Run down blitzes aimed at disrupting the PS running attack. Force PS wrs to win one-to-one matchups.

App St laid it out there. Let’s see what kind of coaching adjustments are made to counter.

I have a blue print to build a bridge. Doesn't help me one bit.

 

[Brad908]

I hope it’s the same blue print the big ten followed in 2016 to beat us.

How quickly people forget how bad the first 5 games of 2016 were.

 

[kijanalives]

So you chastise the poster for just "throwing numbers out there" but then you follow it up with the totally unsupportable conclusion that but for Hamler's return, we lose. Chase took us 75 yards vs Iowa last year with virtually the same amount of time and the same number of timeouts. Not necessarily a guarantee that he would have done it again against App St but at least one counterpoint to your faulty presumption.

And I gave you three examples. Our chances of scoring on the last drive would’ve been cut in half starting at our 25.
I’d wager I’m as fanatical about the Nits as you are, and probably more. The worst thing we, as fans, can do, though, is view everything through a Blue and White prism. It blinds us to reality.
I chastised no one. I’m a man of science and math, not blind faith. “80%” was a rediculous number, and you know it.

 

[Madsol]

And I gave you three examples. Our chances of scoring on the last drive would’ve been cut in half starting at our 25.
I’d wager I’m as fanatical about the Nits as you are, and probably more. The worst thing we, as fans, can do, though, is view everything through a Blue and White prism. It blinds us to reality.
I chastised no one. I’m a man of science and math, not blind faith. “80%” was a rediculous number, and you know it.

80% was "rediculous" I agree. Just like saying our chances of scoring would have been cut in half had we started at the 25. Who said that? Oops. He made an unsupportable conclusion. You made an unsupportable conclusion. Let's say you're both "rediculous" and call it a draw.

 

[kijanalives]

80% was "rediculous" I agree. Just like saying our chances of scoring would have been cut in half had we started at the 25. Who said that? Oops. He made an unsupportable conclusion. You made an unsupportable conclusion. Let's say you're both "rediculous" and call it a draw.

Wow you can spell check. And I have fat thumbs. I guess you “win” that one, but....
http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html?m=1
One study, and I have 6 more, confirming that drives beginning at the 50 yd line have over a 40% chance of scoring a TD, and even better for FGs. With a drive starting at the 25, chances of scoring a TD barely hit 20%, less than 15% for an FG. Would you say that constitutes “half”? Prob not, from your post history I expect blatant disagreement, even in the face of evidence.
This study is from 2013, and centers around the NFL. These are my caveats. Any other “flaws” u find, lmk. I’ll be here....