While in a quiet time for PSU wrestling I thought I would share a little something extra to get us through.
As you have seen I like to come up with scoring projections based on past results. But I often guess on the low side for PSU. The reason is in my assumptions. I assume all seeds for all teams wrestle to the same historical average. In general this is a good idea because it recognizes that the top 8 seeds never finish (well almost never) as the AAs.
But, as it turns out, and as you already know, PSU does not wrestle to the average. In fact, during the Cael Sanderson years PSU tends to outperform its seeds (slightly) in spite of having the highest average seed.
When comparing across the top teams (at least 40 AAs from 2010 to 2024) it is interesting to see that PSU has the lowest rate of underperformance - only 28% finish lower than their seed while also having the highest bar to clear. PSU has the highest average starting point (seeded 7.22).
At the other end of the spectrum are Oklahoma State, Iowa, and Missouri. They miss their seed between 43% and 52% of the time resulting in the only below seed average finishes among the top teams.
But, because Iowa starts with a higher average seed, they also finish with a higher average finish than all but PSU.
Another interesting thing to note is that most of these teams have had very stable coaching situations during this time period. To the extent any of this comes down to coaching, rather than individual wrestlers, then it probably persists. But there is a notable exception this year. If it is all about coaching what impact will David Taylor have on the Cowboys this year?
As you have seen I like to come up with scoring projections based on past results. But I often guess on the low side for PSU. The reason is in my assumptions. I assume all seeds for all teams wrestle to the same historical average. In general this is a good idea because it recognizes that the top 8 seeds never finish (well almost never) as the AAs.
But, as it turns out, and as you already know, PSU does not wrestle to the average. In fact, during the Cael Sanderson years PSU tends to outperform its seeds (slightly) in spite of having the highest average seed.
When comparing across the top teams (at least 40 AAs from 2010 to 2024) it is interesting to see that PSU has the lowest rate of underperformance - only 28% finish lower than their seed while also having the highest bar to clear. PSU has the highest average starting point (seeded 7.22).
At the other end of the spectrum are Oklahoma State, Iowa, and Missouri. They miss their seed between 43% and 52% of the time resulting in the only below seed average finishes among the top teams.
But, because Iowa starts with a higher average seed, they also finish with a higher average finish than all but PSU.
Another interesting thing to note is that most of these teams have had very stable coaching situations during this time period. To the extent any of this comes down to coaching, rather than individual wrestlers, then it probably persists. But there is a notable exception this year. If it is all about coaching what impact will David Taylor have on the Cowboys this year?
