How was the PAC12 champ last year? UT was supposed to have a much better defense that either UW or OR have now and they got exposed.I'll give you Ole Miss but not Oregon or UDub. Our defense can keep us in games but our offense stinks. Maybe these Pac 12 defenses are bad so our offense can do some things that it has not been able to.
It does depend a lot on opt outs. For example, if Nix or Penix opt out then our shot goes up dramatically but then it is not a real test and gets back to the issue that with opt outs these bowl games are just meaningless.