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Can Penn State lose to OSU and still go to B1G championship?

CFett

Well-Known Member
Dec 1, 2014
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Guys, I'm pretty sure I'm having a Pepe Silvia moment. If you're not familiar with that, google it. You're welcome.

The thought just crept into my head and I started thinking about the B1G tiebreakers. I looked them up on the B1G website and this is what I found. Let us assume that PSU loses to OSU, and OSU loses to Michigan. And before anyone says it, yes, I understand the odds here. But once my mind started going I couldn't stop it. So hear me out.

PSU/OSU/UM end the season in a 3-way tie for first, each with a divisional record of 5-1. There are 8 steps to break a tie, and I'm pretty sure OSU is eliminated at step 5. Now it would require some lucky breaks for PSU, but here goes:

1. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
(a) Example: East 1 is 2-0 in games between the tied teams with wins over East 2 and 3 - East 1 would be the representative.
  • All three teams are 1-1 against the other tied teams. No conclusion.
2. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.
  • All three teams are 4-1 within their division. No conclusion.
3. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
  • All three teams are 4-0 against MSU, Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland. No conclusion.
4. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
  • The only common conference opponent is PSU and UM against Iowa. Both won. No conclusion. (Does this eliminate OSU since there's no common conference opponent? I don't know. For the sake of this discussion, I conclude it doesn't)
5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.
  • PSU non-divisional opponents are 13-8. Michigan non-divisional opponents are 13-8. OSU non-divisional opponents are 7-14. All stats as of today.
  • Iowa is a common opponent between PSU and UM, so they don’t matter. Illinois (UM), Purdue (PSU), Minnesota (PSU) and Wisconsin (UM) matter. At this point, wouldn't OSU be eliminated?
So, this week, assume:
  1. Iowa beats Illinois.
  2. Wisconsin beats Purdue.
  3. Minnesota beats Northwestern.
And in the final week, assume:
  1. Minnesota beats Wisconsin.
  2. Purdue beats Indiana.
  3. Northwestern beats Illinois.
PSU would end up with a non-divisional opponent record of 17-9 and Michigan would end up with a non-divisional opponent record of 15-10. PSU clinches the east.

Some might say this exercise was a waste of time. Others might say this exercise was a tremendous waste of time. It can all be erased by beating OSU. But given the odds, it's a fun exercise (possibly in futility?) to think about a B1G East chaos scenario.

Now I just need someone to come in and show me where I screwed up.
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