Dissecting this whole narrative about the byes and seeding

[djm_psu_alum]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

 

[sss]

Do NFL teams prefer the bye or not? How do they seed those teams? Too many talking heads that need something to talk about.

 

[WaffleShopper]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

Media narratives are just an ever-changing series of overreactions. The committee can make changes to seeding criteria etc but no matter what they do it will never be perfect. I think the current playoff setup is pretty good and we know that the best team will come out on top, unlike in previous years.

 

[OzLion]

...
Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12)....

Fantastic post! Too many people want to change the system based on this year's problems, and then next year there will be a different set of problems caused by the previous year's tweaks, and you end up in an infinite loop of fixing the previous ;year's problems.

One thing I'll add to your point is that 2024 is the first year of the 'mega-conferences' where you have 16+ teams and the scheduling problems therein.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Fantastic post! Too many people want to change the system based on this year's problems, and then next year there will be a different set of problems caused by the previous year's tweaks, and you end up in an infinite loop of fixing the previous ;year's problems.

One thing I'll add to your point is that 2024 is the first year of the 'mega-conferences' where you have 16+ teams and the scheduling problems therein.

Thanks. The mega-conference point is a good one because the removal of the divisions for the B10, SEC, and ACC means that we likely avoid the chance of a weak division champ upsetting a playoff bound team in the conference championship game--resulting in an at-large team losing a spot. It kinda/sorta happened with Clemson beating SMU but imagine if Northwestern (2020), Iowa (2021 and 2023), or Purdue (2022) had one the B10 game? Removing the divisions, should ensure 3-4 loss teams do not make the conference championship.

 

[Westcoast24]

Do NFL teams prefer the bye or not? How do they seed those teams? Too many talking heads that need something to talk about.

That’s a tuff comparison. NFL byes aren’t 3 1/2 or 4 weeks in between games are they? I would rather be in PSU shoes and be able to stay sharp by not being off for such a long period of time. I suppose there is an argument to be made that if you had some injuries it would be more time for healing. Long times off waiting for bowl games to start has created some really sloppy bowl games in the past IMO. Just a thought.

 

[knickslions]

The top 4 teams are in final four and that is what you want.

 

[PurposePitch]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

Regarding the extra rest ... I think there's something there ... these weren't typical byes, and it wasn't the typical schedule for the ones that didn't have byes.

Typically a bye is one week, and, typically, if you don't have a bye, you are playing every 6-7 days.

Penn State, who didn't get a "bye," still got 2 full weeks in between their CCG and their 1st round game. Then, they had 10 days in between the 1st round and the quarterfinals. So they still got extra rest, but played a game in between to stay "sharp."

Oregon, for example, had 3 1/2 weeks of rest. That's a lot.

3 of the teams with byes came out really flat ... and even Georgia, the lone team that didn't look completely awful in the early going, compared to their opponent, was pretty blah. And those 3 teams that came out looking terrible, eventually got their poo together and played respectably after the slow start. That might tell you that they weren't "game speed ready," and they adjusted as the game wore on. The fact that it didn't just happen to the severe underdogs, but also to the undefeated #1 team in the nation gives a bit more credence to this theory.

Unlike the normal situation where not having a bye can wear on you, because you go straight from the regular season to a game 6-7 days later, and then ANOTHER game 6-7 days later, the teams without a bye did have extra rest and prep time, they just didn't have to sit game-idle for nearly a month.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

Oh please, give me an f'ing break - you really believe there's anyone out there who would prefer a bye in the 1st RD and the worst 2nd RD draw (1/4 Final in a 16-Team Bracket) by a factor of 10 over playing the 16-Seed in 1st RD @Home and then the 8v9 Seed Winner again @Home??? (IOW, Oregon's 1st Game would have been against Clemson @home, then their 2nd RD game would have been the winner of the #8 Selection Seed (Indiana) v #9 (BSU) @home. No way would anyone say, "I want the bye and the worst quarterfinal draw by a factor of 10 please." (Or are you really trying to claim that Oregon would have even come remotely close to losing to ASU, BSU or the putrid UGa team we saw yesterday???)

Secondly, your comparison to the NFL structure is WHOLLY non-analogous. The NFL uses a 16-Team Bracket with only 2 byes on either side of the 8-Team Opposing Brackets (IOW, two 8-Team Brackets - each have a #1 - #8 Seed) and 14 Teams with 2 byes (not 12 teams with 4 byes... all in one big Bracket). Had the CFP done it remotely close to NFL, only Oregon and UGa would have gotten byes and each would have been seeded #1 in their own Bracket.... and 14 total teams would have made it, not 12. It would have looked like this....

Bracket 1 First RD: #1 Seed Oregon - bye. #2 Seed PSU v #7 Seed Clemson (auto via 5th Highest-Ranked Conf Champ). #3 Seed ND v #6 Seed ASU. #4 Tennessee v #5 BSU.

Bracket 2 First RD: #1 UGa - bye. #2 Seed Texas v #7 Seed Miami. #3 Seed duhO$U v #6 Seed Alabama. #4 Indiana v #5 SMU.

All games @home of higher seed.

In this scenario, Oregon would have played Tenn v BSU winner in 2nd RD - not duhO$U! In fact, duhO$U is not even on the same side of the Bracket using an NFL Model and could not even face Oregon (the overall #1, until the Final). duhO$U would likely be playing Texas in RD 2 of Bracket 2. PSU likely playing ND in Bracket 1 in RD 2.

But claiming this horse$hit setup is anything like the NFL's setup is nothing but happy horse$hit.

 

[Obliviax]

I believe this will be our 16th game. ND will be playing their 15th. You can argue we are battle tested. You can argue we are beat up and tired. Football has always been about overcoming obstacles. Everyone has them

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Oh please, give me an f'ing break - you really believe there's anyone out there who would prefer a bye in the 1st RD and the worst 2nd RD draw (1/4 Final in a 16-Team Bracket) by a factor of 10 over playing the 16-Seed in 1st RD @Home and then the 8v9 Seed Winner again @Home??? (IOW, Oregon's 1st Game would have been against Clemson @home, then their 2nd RD game would have been the winner of the #8 Selection Seed (Indiana) v #9 (BSU) @home. No way would anyone say, "I want the bye and the worst quarterfinal draw by a factor of 10 please." (Or are you really trying to claim that Oregon would have even come remotely close to losing to ASU, BSU or the putrid UGa team we saw yesterday???)

Secondly, your comparison to the NFL structure is WHOLLY non-analogous. The NFL uses a 16-Team Bracket with only 2 byes on either side of the 8-Team Opposing Brackets (IOW, two 8-Team Brackets - each have a #1 - #8 Seed) and 14 Teams with 2 byes (not 12 teams with 4 byes... all in one big Bracket). Had the CFP done it remotely close to NFL, only Oregon and UGa would have gotten byes and each would have been seeded #1 in their own Bracket.... and 14 total teams would have made it, not 12. It would have looked like this....

Bracket 1 First RD: #1 Seed Oregon - bye. #2 Seed PSU v #7 Seed Clemson (auto via 5th Highest-Ranked Conf Champ). #3 Seed ND v #6 Seed ASU. #4 Tennessee v #5 BSU.

Bracket 2 First RD: #1 UGa - bye. #2 Seed Texas v #7 Seed Miami. #3 Seed duhO$U v #6 Seed Alabama. #4 Indiana v #5 SMU.

All games @home of higher seed.

In this scenario, Oregon would have played Tenn v BSU winner in 2nd RD - not duhO$U! In fact, duhO$U is not even on the same side of the Bracket using an NFL Model and could not even face Oregon (the overall #1, until the Final). duhO$U would likely be playing Texas in RD 2 of Bracket 2. PSU likely playing ND in Bracket 1 in RD 2.

But claiming this horse$hit setup is anything like the NFL's setup is nothing but happy horse$hit.

Huh? "NFL" is nowhere in my original post nor did I draw any comparison to it. You should go back and read it again before going keyboard commando. I was merely saying that the whole narrative about seeding of conference champs could be overblown if you look at the previous years of CFP rankings. In 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, if the 12 team playoff was in place with the same criteria of conference champs receiving a top-4 bye, the lowest ranked champion would have been #9 (in 2022) in the top 4 so we should consider that year's #12 and #16 ranked conference champs getting a top 4 seed an anomaly based on prior years.

 

[heckmans]

Do NFL teams prefer the bye or not? How do they seed those teams? Too many talking heads that need something to talk about.

Yes, but 2-3 weeks off is different than 1

 

[LandoComando]

The top 4 teams are in final four and that is what you want.

4 of the top 6
Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, Georgia and ND were always the best 6.
ASU and Boise getting byes does have to be reconsidered

 

[heckmans]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

Mostly agree. The biggest question is whether the ACC (read: Clemson or FSU) comes back. Dabo hates today's reality, refused to adjust, and they weren't great. We'll see what he does. I have no idea what the deal is in Tallahassee. The rest of the ACC is the B12.

 

[LandoComando]

Huh? "NFL" is nowhere in my original post nor did I draw any comparison to it. You should go back and read it again before going keyboard commando. I was merely saying that the whole narrative about seeding of conference champs could be overblown if you look at the previous years of CFP rankings. In 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, if the 12 team playoff was in place with the same criteria of conference champs receiving a top-4 bye, the lowest ranked champion would have been #9 (in 2022) in the top 4 so we should consider that year's #12 and #16 ranked conference champs getting a top 4 seed an anomaly based on prior years.

2022 and 2021 were still bad
At no point should #6 be getting a bye when #3 is playing. It's illogical
I know you didn't mention the NFL but it's the same thing with it being absurd Detroit or Minnesota have to go to the NFC South winner at 14-3.

 

[heckmans]

2022 and 2021 were still bad
At no point should #6 be getting a bye when #3 is playing. It's illogical
I don't you didn't mention the NFL but it's the same thing with it being absurd Detroit or Minnesota have to go to the NFC South winner at 14-3.

If winning a division doesn't matter, then the NFL should get rid of divisions and the schedule should be 15 conference games and 2 cross-conference games each year.

 

[LandoComando]

If winning a division doesn't matter, then the NFL should get rid of divisions and the schedule should be 15 conference games and 2 cross-conference games each year.

I'd support that

 

[Nbergbuck]

4 of the top 6
Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, Georgia and ND were always the best 6.
ASU and Boise getting byes does have to be reconsidered

What largely messed up the seeding was OSU's ridiculous loss to Michigan. The problem is OSU has proven to be far better than their seed. That left Tennessee and Oregon in an unlucky spot. PSU should be grateful. That helped give them the easiest path to the final 4. Boise and SMU were 2nd tier teams trying to beat a 1st tier team in Penn State. Even now, PSU is probably better off playing Notre Dame than either OSU or Texas.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

2022 and 2021 were still bad
At no point should #6 be getting a bye when #3 is playing. It's illogical
I know you didn't mention the NFL but it's the same thing with it being absurd Detroit or Minnesota have to go to the NFC South winner at 14-3.

I don't believe 2021 or 2022 is as bad as 2024. I don't disagree that a bye for conference champs needs to be reconsidered. My point was that this year's situation is an anomaly compared to prior years.

• In 2018, Notre Dame was in top 4 and OSU (B10) was #6 so you would have had ND at #5 seed and Georgia at #6 (was #5 in CFP rankings on selection day) and OSU at #4 instead of #6.
• In 2017, Alabama was #4 on selection day and a non-conference champion and OSU was #5 as B10 champ. They would swap under the current system.
• In 2016, OSU was #3 on selection day as a non-conference champion and PSU was #5 as B10 champ. In the current system, Washington moves up to #3, PSU as #4, and OSU as #5.

Again, my point being that all of this complaining about this year's seeding does not take into account that having a #12 and #16 CFP ranked conference champs is very rare. I'm not defending this prioritized seeding just trying to say look this year is weird--let it play out another year or two.

As far as the NFL, I agree that division champs shouldn't get a guaranteed home game. The difference is that it appears from a league perspective, where you have 32 constituents, they seem okay with it versus the CFP where you have conferences as the constituents.

 

[LandoComando]

I don't believe 2021 or 2022 is as bad as 2024. I don't disagree that a bye for conference champs needs to be reconsidered. My point was that this year's situation is an anomaly compared to prior years.

• In 2018, Notre Dame was in top 4 and OSU (B10) was #6 so you would have had ND at #5 seed and Georgia at #6 (was #5 in CFP rankings on selection day) and OSU at #4 instead of #6.
• In 2017, Alabama was #4 on selection day and a non-conference champion and OSU was #5 as B10 champ. They would swap under the current system.
• In 2016, OSU was #3 on selection day as a non-conference champion and PSU was #5 as B10 champ. In the current system, Washington moves up to #3, PSU as #4, and OSU as #5.

Again, my point being that all of this complaining about this year's seeding does not take into account that having a #12 and #16 CFP ranked conference champs is very rare. I'm not defending this prioritized seeding just trying to say look this year is weird--let it play out another year or two.

As far as the NFL, I agree that division champs shouldn't get a guaranteed home game. The difference is that it appears from a league perspective, where you have 32 constituents, they seem okay with it versus the CFP where you have conferences as the constituents.

Not "as bad" but still bad
I get what you're saying and LOVE the research and the facts behind it. I think my "concern" is that with Big Ten/SEC expansion the gap is larger now than ever before and this year is likely going to be a theme moving forward.
I love the playoff this year--I can't wait for the next 3 games. Hopefully we're in 2. I just want to see some adjustments but, again, you're right and I love the research with past data. I just think the death of the Pac XII along with Texas/OU going to the SEC alters it.

 

[Westcoast24]

Oh please, give me an f'ing break - you really believe there's anyone out there who would prefer a bye in the 1st RD and the worst 2nd RD draw (1/4 Final in a 16-Team Bracket) by a factor of 10 over playing the 16-Seed in 1st RD @Home and then the 8v9 Seed Winner again @Home??? (IOW, Oregon's 1st Game would have been against Clemson @home, then their 2nd RD game would have been the winner of the #8 Selection Seed (Indiana) v #9 (BSU) @home. No way would anyone say, "I want the bye and the worst quarterfinal draw by a factor of 10 please." (Or are you really trying to claim that Oregon would have even come remotely close to losing to ASU, BSU or the putrid UGa team we saw yesterday???)

Secondly, your comparison to the NFL structure is WHOLLY non-analogous. The NFL uses a 16-Team Bracket with only 2 byes on either side of the 8-Team Opposing Brackets (IOW, two 8-Team Brackets - each have a #1 - #8 Seed) and 14 Teams with 2 byes (not 12 teams with 4 byes... all in one big Bracket). Had the CFP done it remotely close to NFL, only Oregon and UGa would have gotten byes and each would have been seeded #1 in their own Bracket.... and 14 total teams would have made it, not 12. It would have looked like this....

Bracket 1 First RD: #1 Seed Oregon - bye. #2 Seed PSU v #7 Seed Clemson (auto via 5th Highest-Ranked Conf Champ). #3 Seed ND v #6 Seed ASU. #4 Tennessee v #5 BSU.

Bracket 2 First RD: #1 UGa - bye. #2 Seed Texas v #7 Seed Miami. #3 Seed duhO$U v #6 Seed Alabama. #4 Indiana v #5 SMU.

All games @home of higher seed.

In this scenario, Oregon would have played Tenn v BSU winner in 2nd RD - not duhO$U! In fact, duhO$U is not even on the same side of the Bracket using an NFL Model and could not even face Oregon (the overall #1, until the Final). duhO$U would likely be playing Texas in RD 2 of Bracket 2. PSU likely playing ND in Bracket 1 in RD 2.

But claiming this horse$hit setup is anything like the NFL's setup is nothing but happy horse$hit.

Why so angry? ffs it’s just a discussion.

 

[Jerry]

Since the final seedings/rankings were announced, there has been two narratives the media has been hyping up and then one as the lower seeds were winning:

1. The conference champions getting top 4 seeds makes it an unbalanced and/or unfair for quality teams (e.g. Oregon).
2. We got the easiest path to the semi by putting SMU and Boise in front of us. (this point is a product of #1)
3. All of the "bye" teams lost so they must have all gotten too much rest.

I'm probably in the minority but I think having the bye for the conference champion is a good thing because it is a reward in terms of one less game, extra rest, and you know which quarterfinal bowl you are going to. All of the media and (loads of regular folk too) fail to acknowledge that perhaps this year was just weird with a very down ACC and revamped B12 that's still has to sort out its pecking order. Both of which created the pathway for a G5 conference champ to take advantage of the top 4 seed guideline.

Consider the previous years and the CFP rankings at the conclusion of the conference championships:

• 2023 - top 4 seeds were conference champs (Mich, Wash, Texas, and Alabama). FSU gets in at #5 and may have been upset about missing out on a bye but they get Liberty as the #12 seed (they are #23 in the rankings but that's the highest G5 conference champ).
  • #6 Georgia vs #11 Ole Miss
  • #7 OSU vs #10 PSU
  • #8 Oregon vs #9 Missouri
  • I don't think any one squawks at this bracket.
• 2022 - the top 4 seeds would be Georgia (#1), Michigan (#2), Clemson (#7), and K-State (#9). This is due to TCU losing in the B12 championship game and Clemson losing late to South Carolina or else they may have shot at the top 4 seeds in the old model. I doubt anyone would argue that the 2022 K-State and Clemson teams are worse than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 TCU vs #12 Tulane (#16 in the CFP but the highest ranked G5 Conference champ)
  • #6 OSU vs #11 PSU
  • #7 Alabama vs #10 USC
  • #8 Tennessee vs #9 Utah
  • I think people would probably complain about K-State's placement in the top 4 but they went 3-2 vs ranked teams in the season (not including the loss to Tulane who was not ranked at the time but would end up being ranked and the G5 playoff representative). They played a tough schedule and would have garnered support to get in the playoff regardless of winning the B12 championship game.
• 2021 - This one is interesting. The top 4 seeds would be #1 Bama (SEC champ), #2 Mich (B10 champ), #4 Cincy (G5 conference champ), and #7 Baylor (B12 champ). Maybe people would complain about Cincy's placement but they were in the old playoff when it was only the top 4 and they beat #5 CFP ranked Notre Dame. Baylor at #7 is better than this year's ASU (#12 in CFP final rankings) and Clemson #16 in CFP final rankings).
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 Pitt (ACC champ)
  • #6 ND vs Utah (Pac 12 champ)
  • #7 OSU vs #10 Mich State
  • #8 Ole Miss vs #9 Ok State
  • 3 of the top 4 seeds are already conference champs and the 4th was ranked #7 so again, not as bad as 2024's conference champs.
• 2019 (skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) - top 4 seeds would be OSU (B10 champ), LSU (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), and Utah (Pac 12 champ). Utah was ranked #5 (Georgia was #4) so this is similar to 2021 where the 4th conference champ is still a very strong team.
  • #5 Georgia vs #12 (#17 in the CFP but highest ranked G5 conference champ)
  • #6 Oklahoma vs #11 Auburn
  • #7 Baylor vs #11 PSU
  • #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Florida

Basically, I think everyone needs to take a beat and maybe consider that this year, we just had an odd mix of down conferences (ACC and B12) along with one less conference to choose from (P12). Also, the G5 champ in most years will likely be the #12 seed. Losing one of the major conferences was probably the biggest factor of creating this year's seeding issue. When there were 5 major conferences, it would be fair to assume one conference from year to year is probably going to be down so you still could safely assume the other 4 would have strong candidates. With only less conference, there is no room for error. Instead of wiping away the bye for all conference champs, maybe they should try a hybrid approach--top 3 conference champions get byes and the next highest team regardless of conference finish gets the 4th bye. For the 4 examples above, TCU would get the bye over K-State (2022), Georgia gets the bye over Baylor (2021), and Georgia gets in over Utah (2019). With 2023, because the top 5 teams were all conference champs, the rankings would not change.

As far as the extra rest being a detriment because all 4 teams with byes lost, all 4 were underdogs to begin with and 2 were very lowly ranked conference champions. I think if you asked PSU, OSU, ND, and Texas to choose between extra rest or a home playoff game (w/o knowing who their opponent would be), they would choose the rest and bowl site.

Nice analysis.

There appears to be a media consensus forming that the seeding formula will be tinkered with before next season.

I have no complaints, however. The system cut us a break...and it's about damn time.

That said, moving forward, I think the first logical thing, which won't happen, is to dump the CCGs altogether.

The second logical thing, in my mind, is to seed the 12 teams according to merit. Keep the five slots for conference champions but eliminate their guaranteed spot in the top 4 unless they qualify there by virtue of record, schedule strength, and so forth.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Nice analysis.

There appears to be a media consensus forming that the seeding formula will be tinkered with before next season.

I have no complaints, however. The system cut us a break...and it's about damn time.

That said, moving forward, I think the first logical thing, which won't happen, is to dump the CCGs altogether.

The second logical thing, in my mind, is to seed the 12 teams according to merit. Keep the five slots for conference champions but eliminate their guaranteed spot in the top 4 unless they qualify there by virtue of record, schedule strength, and so forth.

I could see the conference champs still getting a home game in the first round, but that is about the most benefit they should receive.

I fully agree with you about getting rid of the CCGs. They cause yet another week to be burned in December and needlessly push out the playoffs for another week. But as you say, it will never happen.

 

[wilbury]

Why so angry? ffs it’s just a discussion.

Angry is his base emotion.

 

[AvgUser]

The top 4 teams are in final four and that is what you want.

Oregon isn’t top 4?