Early betting lines on the two biggest regular season games of the year

[Jerry]

No shockers: Penn State a 4.5-point favorite at home against Oregon; 4.5-point underdog on the road against Ohio State.

4.5 points over Oregon seems a bit high to me, but I love how that game sets up for us with three prior tune-ups, a bye week to prepare, and the white-out at night.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Historically, early season bye weeks do not always turn out to be a positive. Teams improve the most after their first couple games as it takes several games for everything to gel - so early games are very much like "scrimmages" in certain ways where the staff can try lots of different combinations, schemes, etc... if the outcome is not in doubt. Once a team hits it's stride and is playing really well, you don't necessarily want them to not have another game for half a month.

 

[ryoder1]

No shockers: Penn State a 4.5-point favorite at home against Oregon; 4.5-point underdog on the road against Ohio State.

4.5 points over Oregon seems a bit high to me, but I love how that game sets up for us with three prior tune-ups, a bye week to prepare, and the white-out at night.

I think 4.5 vs Oregon sounds right. They have a new QB but I am sure he is good. I think they lost a decent amount of talent but they kinda reload too. I feel very confident about this game and can see us winning by more. The WO will give us a great boost. A definite cover in my opinion.

Who knows about OSU regarding the point spread. Probably about right on. Unfortunately I think we lose simply because we have not shown any ability to beat them especially there. If you disregard the Luke Fickell transition year in 2011 we have won there one time since joining the B10. So in 32 years we have one win in Columbus. Okay two if that makes anyone feel better. Franklin has zero. Gulp. I mean talk about ineptitude.

 

[Zouavelion5]

I think 4.5 vs Oregon sounds right. They have a new QB but I am sure he is good. I think they lost a decent amount of talent but they kinda reload too. I feel very confident about this game and can see us winning by more. The WO will give us a great boost. A definite cover in my opinion.

Who knows about OSU regarding the point spread. Probably about right on. Unfortunately I think we lose simply because we have not shown any ability to beat them especially there. If you disregard the Luke Fickell transition year in 2011 we have won there one time since joining the B10. So in 32 years we have one win in Columbus. Okay two if that makes anyone feel better. Franklin has zero. Gulp. I mean talk about ineptitude.

My Dad and l have gone to 3 games at the Shoe, l believe the Lions scored 2 offensive touchdowns in those games combined. Just an absolute house of horrors.

 

[Jerry]

Historically, early season bye weeks do not always turn out to be a positive. Teams improve the most after their first couple games as it takes several games for everything to gel - so early games are very much like "scrimmages" in certain ways where the staff can try lots of different combinations, schemes, etc... if the outcome is not in doubt. Once a team hits it's stride and is playing really well, you don't necessarily want them to not have another game for half a month.

It's a fair point. In fact, you could make a case one way or the other on whether the three walk-overs (plus bye) we play to start the season are a better set-up than the three not-great-but-at-least competitive (plus one walk-over) teams on Oregon's schedule before September 27.

Everybody's got the Ducks in their preseason top-10 ranking but I think the crazy atmosphere of the night white-out in Happy Valley will be a huge psychological advantage. I think this is a game we have to win...and I think we will. As for the 4.5 point spread, it's just a wag right now, subject to adjustment based on each team's performance in September plus injuries and so forth. However, as things stand now, it seems like a realistic number.

 

[Jerry]

My Dad and l have gone to 3 games at the Shoe, l believe the Lions scored 2 offensive touchdowns in those games combined. Just an absolute house of horrors.

It's hard to overstate the psychological damage done by those two 1-point losses in 2017 and 2018 where we blew leads in the 4th quarter.

The Buckeyes are in Franklin's head at this point. It starts with play-not-to-lose game plans and has become a mentality of how-are-we-going-to-lose-this-time. When you expect to lose, you usually find ways to do that.

I remember back in the day when Penn State ran up big winning streaks against various of the Eastern teams on our annual schedule even though there were years when some of those teams were decent and gave us respectable games.

But after one such win in a competitive game against I can't remember who -- maybe it was Boston College -- one of our players remarked that yeah, they played us tough, but we felt like we couldn't lose the game and they felt like they couldn't win.

My sense is that's now how we go into games against Ohio State...feeling like we can keep it close...but we can't win. Then again, I'm not a sports psychologist. I just play one on a message board.

 

[Obliviax]

No shockers: Penn State a 4.5-point favorite at home against Oregon; 4.5-point underdog on the road against Ohio State.

4.5 points over Oregon seems a bit high to me, but I love how that game sets up for us with three prior tune-ups, a bye week to prepare, and the white-out at night.

Oregon has a couple of highly rated kids to play QB on their roster but are inexperienced. They had ten kids drafted into the NFL last season, including the Steelers #1 pick. They lost their QB, both OTs, both DTs and a DE. Also, the guy that killed us last season, Tez Johnson.

tOSU is in the same category. But both teams recruit extremely well and have good athletes at every position. How well with they adjust in their first season starting remains a mystery.

 

[ryoder1]

It's hard to overstate the psychological damage done by those two 1-point losses in 2017 and 2018 where we blew leads in the 4th quarter.

The Buckeyes are in Franklin's head at this point. It starts with play-not-to-lose game plans and has become a mentality of how-are-we-going-to-lose-this-time. When you expect to lose, you usually find ways to do that.

I remember back in the day when Penn State ran up big winning streaks against various of the Eastern teams on our annual schedule even though there were years when some of those teams were decent and gave us respectable games.

But after one such win in a competitive game against I can't remember who -- maybe it was Boston College -- one of our players remarked that yeah, they played us tough, but we felt like we couldn't lose the game and they felt like they couldn't win.

My sense is that's now how we go into games against Ohio State...feeling like we can keep it close...but we can't win. Then again, I'm not a sports psychologist. I just play one on a message board.

They are absolutely in our head. Have been for years. We simply do not know how to win vs them. That's on Franklin as he is a big part of the problem along with the players not knowing how to execute in the clutch. Last year was brutal as it was at home and again we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It is so bad that it is practically a sure thing you will win money by just betting a lot of money on OSU to win the game.

 

[Jerry]

They are absolutely in our head. Have been for years. We simply do not know how to win vs them. That's on Franklin as he is a big part of the problem along with the players not knowing how to execute in the clutch. Last year was brutal as it was at home and again we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It is so bad that it is practically a sure thing you will win money by just betting a lot of money on OSU to win the game.

If you're a die-hard Penn State fan who lives and breathes Nittany Lions football, you might bet the moneyline on Ohio State to win the game straight-up with the reasoning that one way or another you'll get something out of the deal: if the Nits win, you're delighted to have lost your money...small price to pay. On the other hand, if the Bucks win, as they seemingly always do, you'll at least pocket a few dollars as small consolation for your heartbreak.

It's like, you're trying to lose your friggin' money...you want to lose your friggin' money...you're happy to lose your friggin' money...but they won't let you lose your friggin' money.

I'm not saying I've ever done this of course.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

It's a fair point. In fact, you could make a case one way or the other on whether the three walk-overs (plus bye) we play to start the season are a better set-up than the three not-great-but-at-least competitive (plus one walk-over) teams on Oregon's schedule before September 27.

Everybody's got the Ducks in their preseason top-10 ranking but I think the crazy atmosphere of the night white-out in Happy Valley will be a huge psychological advantage. I think this is a game we have to win...and I think we will. As for the 4.5 point spread, it's just a wag right now, subject to adjustment based on each team's performance in September plus injuries and so forth. However, as things stand now, it seems like a realistic number.

IMO, 4.5 is less than the value of a homefield Whiteout, so there's that. 4.5 doesn't seem like that much for a Nightgame Whiteout.

 

[PurposePitch]

If you're a die-hard Penn State fan who lives and breathes Nittany Lions football, you might bet the moneyline on Ohio State to win the game straight-up with the reasoning that one way or another you'll get something out of the deal: if the Nits win, you're delighted to have lost your money...small price to pay. On the other hand, if the Bucks win, as they seemingly always do, you'll at least pocket a few dollars as small consolation for your heartbreak.

It's like, you're trying to lose your friggin' money...you want to lose your friggin' money...you're happy to lose your friggin' money...but they won't let you lose your friggin' money.

I'm not saying I've ever done this of course.

You've already admitted you're a derelict gambler (like your daddy before you) and a drunk. It's OK.

 

[lazydave841]

My Dad and l have gone to 3 games at the Shoe, l believe the Lions scored 2 offensive touchdowns in those games combined. Just an absolute house of horrors.

Would it be OK if you and your father watch this one from home? A bar perhaps?

Just not in the 'shoe. Lol

 

[Zouavelion5]

Would it be OK if you and your father watch this one from home? A bar perhaps?

Just not in the 'shoe. Lol

Don't worry there are no plans for that trip in future for our family!

 

[ryoder1]

I went to the '78 game as a kid in the Shoe which was awesome! Then experienced the other end of the spectrum for my next game there in 2000 which is when Taliaferro was injured.

 

[MacNit2.0]

It's hard to overstate the psychological damage done by those two 1-point losses in 2017 and 2018 where we blew leads in the 4th quarter.

The Buckeyes are in Franklin's head at this point. It starts with play-not-to-lose game plans and has become a mentality of how-are-we-going-to-lose-this-time. When you expect to lose, you usually find ways to do that.

I remember back in the day when Penn State ran up big winning streaks against various of the Eastern teams on our annual schedule even though there were years when some of those teams were decent and gave us respectable games.

But after one such win in a competitive game against I can't remember who -- maybe it was Boston College -- one of our players remarked that yeah, they played us tough, but we felt like we couldn't lose the game and they felt like they couldn't win.

My sense is that's now how we go into games against Ohio State...feeling like we can keep it close...but we can't win. Then again, I'm not a sports psychologist. I just play one on a message board.

Embarrassing.

 

[Jerry]

I went to the '78 game as a kid in the Shoe which was awesome! Then experienced the other end of the spectrum for my next game there in 2000 which is when Taliaferro was injured.

I'll never forget the 1978 game but not because I was there. In fact, I was 7000 miles and 13 time zones away, stationed at a combined-forces military base in northern Japan.

It was challenging to follow the season at such an outpost from that distance though we did get one college football game a week tape-delayed on Armed Forces Television. In any case, I well knew about the Ohio State game and how big it was for us that year.

Anyway, one of the guys in my unit who knew I was a big Penn State fan got word of the final score and walked up to me and said: 19-0...long pause...Penn State. I said get out of here, man. No way. What a morale boost that was.

That was a breakthrough game in many ways and set up a special year. A few months later...home on leave for Christmas...saw it live: four shots at the goal line. Still a bad memory.

 

[Obliviax]

No shockers: Penn State a 4.5-point favorite at home against Oregon; 4.5-point underdog on the road against Ohio State.

4.5 points over Oregon seems a bit high to me, but I love how that game sets up for us with three prior tune-ups, a bye week to prepare, and the white-out at night.

I will be betting that Allar has over 300 yards passing. PSU is going to try and establish a passing game early and often with our two new WRs.