Morelli / Rasheed IMO are R12 and 6-8 if a miracle happens.
Hall is likely top 4 with a championship or finals appearance somewhat likely.
I think 10-15 more points for Hall is pretty reasonable.
I feel the biggest reason to burn the shirt is that he might be a freshman but he isn't a young man. There is no point trying to save a year of eligibility. He won't want to be wrestling in college at 25 years old. He will either be wrestling senior level freestyle or busting heads in MMA for big money.
You assume that this is what Hall wants. What if Hall and Cael talked about him RSing and Cael committed to the RS?