Entire Bracket Ran Through Wrestlestat Comparison Tool

[jmadden1998]

I ran the entire bracket through wrestlestat. Keep in mind that wrestlestat doesn't produce very many bonus point outcomes. The simulation produced no falls for the entire tournament and only a handful of tech falls. Here are the final team scores for the top 6.

Okie State 122
Penn St 121
Ohio St 101.5
Iowa 96
VA Tech 66.5
Missouri 62.5

 

[dunkej01]

Similar to the Madden simulation they run in the NFL.

 

[jmadden1998]

Here's the top 8 per weight class

125

1 Gilman
2 Dance
3 Cruz
4 Piccininni
5 Suriano
6 Josh Rodriguez
7 Lambert
8 Mueller

133

1. Tomasello
2. Brock
3. Clark
4. Richards
5. Montoya
6. Gross
7. Micic
8. Forys

141

1. Heil
2. Jack
3. McKenna
4. Ashnault
5. Kolodzik
6. Ward
7. DiCamillo
8. Thorn

149

1. Retherford
2. Collica
3. Sorensen
4. Mayes
5. Micah Jordan
6. Jeffries
7. Chishko
8. Thomsen

157

1. Nolf
2. Kemerer
3. Palacio
4. Lavallee
5. Berger
6. Smith
7. Ream
8. Atkinson

165

1. Martinez
2. Massa
3. Jordan
4. Rogers
5. Joseph
6. Lewis
7. Walsh
8. Matthews

174

1. Jordan
2. Valencia
3. Realbuto
4. Epperly
5. Hall
6. Meyer
7. Ramos
8. Crutchmer

184

1. Nickal (wins 8-7 over Dean)
2. Dean
3. Zavatsky
4. Brooks
5. Dudley
6. Boyd
7. Martin
8. Jackson

197

1. Cox
2. Pfarr
3. Moore
4. Sleigh
5. Studebaker
6. Griego
7. Weigel
8. Mattiace

285

1. Snyder
2. Medbery
3. Walz
4. Nevills
5. Kroells
6. Hall
7. Schafer
8. Larson

 

[CowboyUp61]

I LIKE IT!!!!!!! FULL MAT PRESS ON THE NCAA TO ACCEPT THIS OUTCOME!

JMadden, did you give any points to PSU at 197 and 141 in this scenario?

 

[dunkej01]

This simulation is very "orange". With that said the fact that the best possible tournament for Ok State w/o bonus added still only yields a 1pt win.

Always cool to see what the computers can model against the "human eye test". Lets me know that humanity will win when the machines attempt a takeover.

 

[jmadden1998]

I LIKE IT!!!!!!! FULL MAT PRESS ON THE NCAA TO ACCEPT THIS OUTCOME!

JMadden, did you give any points to PSU at 197 and 141 in this scenario?

Gulibon got 1/2 a point and McCutcheon got 2 points.

 

[CowboyUp61]

Gulibon got 1/2 a point and McCutcheon got 2 points.

hmmmm, maybe 8 ISNT enough.....

JM, appreciate the work!

 

[Dogwelder]

... when the machines attempt a takeover.

I worry that machines are already attempting a takeover. In particular, maybe the recent SPAMstorm on this forum is the product of a "malevolent Siri" or "cyber Rain Man" bot ...

 

[tuggerjug]

very interesting thx!

 

[dunkej01]

I worry that machines are already attempting a takeover. In particular, maybe the recent SPAMstorm on this forum is the product of a "malevolent Siri" or "cyber Rain Man" bot ...

cyber Rain Man....made me spit my soda out. Person in front of me not happy.

 

[jmadden1998]

I reran 157 with the new bracket. If you didn't hear, Murphy from Michigan withdrew. Top 6 still the same and only added 0.5 point to Iowa as Kemerer now gets TF in the first round instead of Major.

1. Nolf
2. Kemerer
3. Palacio
4. Lavallee
5. Berger
6. Smith
7. Parsons
8. Clagon

 

[jmadden1998]

Oklahoma State scorers

125 12.5 no bonus
133 19 3 MD, 3 points
141 20 no bonus
149 16 no bonus
157 9 no bonus
165 14 1 MD, 1 point
174 6 no bonus
184 10.5 1 MD, 1 point
197 7.5 1 MD, 1 point
285 7.5 1 MD, 1 point

 

[jmadden1998]

Penn St scorers

125 11, MD, 1 bonus
133 0
141 0.5
149 24.5, TF, 3 MD, 4.5 bonus
157 26.5, 3TF, 2MD, 6.5 bonus
165 10, no bonus
174 11 MD, 1 bonus
184 23 2TF, 3 bonus
197 2, no bonus
285 12.5, no bonus

 

[jmadden1998]

Ohio St scorers

125 0.5
133 22, 2MD, 2 bonus
141 1
149 12, 2MD, 2 bonus
157 0
165 0
174 21, MD, 1 bonus
184 7.5, MD, 1 bonus
197 14.5, MD, 1 bonus
285 23, 3MD, 3 bonus

 

[21Guns]

This simulation is very "orange". With that said the fact that the best possible tournament for Ok State w/o bonus added still only yields a 1pt win.

Always cool to see what the computers can model against the "human eye test". Lets me know that humanity will win when the machines attempt a takeover.

Here is my prediction: 1: Humanity, 127 points
2. Machines, 91.5 points
3. Tom Ryan's tanning beds, 31 points

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Predicted finish pretty close to the seeding, at least for Okie State and PSU. Biggest movers look to be:

Piccininni (8th to 4th)
Rogers (9th to 4th)
McCutcheon (5th to DNP)

 

[jmadden1998]

Iowa scorers

125 22, 2MD, 2 bonus
133 15.5, 2MD, 2 bonus
141 1
149 15.5, 2MD, 2 bonus
157 18.5, TF, MD, 2.5 bonus
165 0
174 10, MD, 1 bonus
184 13.5, MD, 1 bonus
197 0.5
285 0

 

[jmadden1998]

Predicted finish pretty close to the seeding, at least for Okie State and PSU. Biggest movers look to be:

Piccininni (8th to 4th)
Rogers (9th to 4th)
McCutcheon (5th to DNP)

System has Piccininni beating Peters, Lambert, and Suriano and then losing to Cruz in the 3rd place match.

Rogers beats Walter, Walsh, and Joseph and then loses to Jordan in 3rd place match

McCutcheon loses to Mattiace in 2nd round, beats Shawn Scott and Jared Haught in consis before losing to Studebaker.

 

[jack66]

Penn St scorers

125 11, MD, 1 bonus
133 0
141 0.5
149 24.5, TF, 3 MD, 4.5 bonus
157 26.5, 3TF, 2MD, 6.5 bonus
165 10, no bonus
174 11 MD, 1 bonus
184 23 2TF, 3 bonus
197 2, no bonus
285 12.5, no bonus

16 bonus points? Didn't we just get something like 24 at Bigs with fewer matches?

 

[jmadden1998]

16 bonus points? Didn't we just get something like 24 at Bigs with fewer matches?

Wrestlestat doesn't produce a lot of bonus point outcomes. There were no falls predicted in the entire tournament which we know will never happen.

 

[dsites52]

Oooo! What's the over/under on pins at the tourney???

 

[tomsc]

Not sure how Rogers gets slated for 4th at 165. Also think that the formula must work against guys like Cutch--all of his close matches costs him in the rankings. He certainly has enough good wins to think he would AA.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Below is a table of last year's bonus point victories for NCAAs.


Tournament Total PSU OkSt tOSU
Falls 70 5 4 3
TF 25 4 1 2
MD 101 7 4 5
Points 23 13.5 14

Keep in mind, Dieringer had 2 of those falls and an MD, while McIntosh and Mega combined for a fall and 3 MD.

One other interesting piece of data. Our bonus rate was 38.1%. OkSt. was 18. And, tOSU was 30.

 

[burnsie1983]

Wrestlestat hates Cutch and cenzo, and loves Rogers and Picc. I'm surprised that it has Rogers over cenzo....especially given their h2h

 

[diggerpup]

It's admirable to take the time & effort to run this analysis, but ...

.... the likelihood of Piccinnini AND Rogers out-placing ALL of Joseph, Hall AND McCutcheon is about 2%.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Going to be interesting to see who's closer to right, the Dual Impact Index or WrestleStat. Haven't finished running the numbers, but I'm expecting PSU to be well ahead via the abacus.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

It's admirable to take the time & effort to run this analysis, but ...

.... the likelihood of Piccinnini AND Rogers out-placing ALL of Joseph, Hall AND McCutcheon is about 2%.

The likelihood of either Picc or Rodgers not being an AA is 83%.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Team projections based on the Dual Impact Index (updated with Suriano scratch):

1. Penn State, 133
2. <redacted>, 114.5
etc.

For the rest of those who care, you can find the rest of the projections at https://setonhallpirate.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/team-projections-based-on-the-dual-impact-index/.

 

[JOESTROSSER]

Going to be interesting to see who's closer to right, the Dual Impact Index or WrestleStat. Haven't finished running the numbers, but I'm expecting PSU to be well ahead via the abacus.

Then you have your answer. Dual Impact Inex would be more accurate. LOL.

 

[a_mshaffer]

Going to be interesting to see who's closer to right, the Dual Impact Index or WrestleStat. Haven't finished running the numbers, but I'm expecting PSU to be well ahead via the abacus.

a follow up to the tourney is a definite!!

 

[Clarion167]

hmmmm, maybe 8 ISNT enough.....

JM, appreciate the work!

Hey cowboy, betcha either $200.00 to wrestling club of winners choice or a picture at Nationals wearing Goldbangers garb I'll give you 4 points.

 

[burnsie1983]

Team projections based on the Dual Impact Index:

1. Penn State, 143.5
2. <redacted>, 114.5
etc.

For the rest of those who care, you can find the rest of the projections at https://setonhallpirate.wordpress.com/2017/03/10/team-projections-based-on-the-dual-impact-index/.

If you have the time....I'd love to see the top 8, by weight.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

125: Gilman, Dance, Lambert, Cruz, Lizak, Mueller, Josh Rodriguez, Piccininni
133: Tomasello, Gross, Brock, Micic, Montoya, Parker, Forys, Clark
141: McKenna, D. Heil, Jack, Ashnault, DiCamillo, Kolodzik, Eierman, Meredith
149: Retherford, Collica, Sorensen, Jordan, Mayes, Thomsen, Oliver, Chishko
157: Nolf, Kemerer, Berger, Lavallee, Palacio, Shields, Parsons, Smith
165: Martinez, Joseph, Massa, Valencia, Jordan, Walsh, Rogers, Lewis
174: Valencia, Jordan, Realbuto, Epperly, Hall, Preisch, Lujan, Amine
184: Nickal, Dean, Brooks, Dudley, Jackson, Zavatsky, Martin, Boyd
197: Cox, Pfarr, Moore, Haught, Weigel, McCutcheon, Studebaker, Rotert
285: Snyder, Medbery, Walz, Nevills, Schafer, Kasper, Hall, Kroells

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

125: Gilman, Dance, Lambert, Cruz, Lizak, Suriano, Josh Rodriguez, Mueller
133: Tomasello, Gross, Brock, Micic, Montoya, Parker, Forys, Clark
141: McKenna, D. Heil, Jack, Ashnault, DiCamillo, Kolodzik, Eierman, Meredith
149: Retherford, Collica, Sorensen, Jordan, Mayes, Thomsen, Oliver, Chishko
157: Nolf, Kemerer, Berger, Lavallee, Palacio, Shields, Parsons, Smith
165: Martinez, Joseph, Massa, Valencia, Jordan, Walsh, Rogers, Lewis
174: Valencia, Jordan, Realbuto, Epperly, Hall, Preisch, Lujan, Amine
184: Nickal, Dean, Brooks, Dudley, Jackson, Zavatsky, Martin, Boyd
197: Cox, Pfarr, Moore, Haught, Weigel, McCutcheon, Studebaker, Rotert
285: Snyder, Medbery, Walz, Nevills, Schafer, Kasper, Hall, Kroells

Wow, I was a little surprised by that 84 simulation given that it includes conference tourney results.

 

[CowboyUp61]

Hey cowboy, betcha either $200.00 to wrestling club of winners choice or a picture at Nationals wearing Goldbangers garb I'll give you 4 points.

are you challenging me to a wrestling match? Regretfully, I won't be at Nationals, have to go to son's baseball tournament. The sacrifices we make. Is Goldbangers your club? Can you still make 167? that was my college weight too. I can still make it, given a small allowance.

 

[johnstownsteel]

I ran the entire bracket through wrestlestat. Keep in mind that wrestlestat doesn't produce very many bonus point outcomes. The simulation produced no falls for the entire tournament and only a handful of tech falls. Here are the final team scores for the top 6.

Okie State 122
Penn St 121
Ohio St 101.5
Iowa 96
VA Tech 66.5
Missouri 62.5

Some of the people (including you) make me realize just how worthless I am around here. Take and take and take but never give back. I appreciate you and so many here that puts in this kinda legwork so the rest of are informed or entertained. And for the record, I'm tired of hearing how great HR is and how it's the best wrestling board out there. I sat on my PSU glasses last week....busted them. So when I say there isn't a forum out there better than this one it's truth!

 

[diggerpup]

125: Gilman, Dance, Lambert, Cruz, Lizak, Suriano, Josh Rodriguez, Mueller
133: Tomasello, Gross, Brock, Micic, Montoya, Parker, Forys, Clark
141: McKenna, D. Heil, Jack, Ashnault, DiCamillo, Kolodzik, Eierman, Meredith
149: Retherford, Collica, Sorensen, Jordan, Mayes, Thomsen, Oliver, Chishko
157: Nolf, Kemerer, Berger, Lavallee, Palacio, Shields, Parsons, Smith
165: Martinez, Joseph, Massa, Valencia, Jordan, Walsh, Rogers, Lewis
174: Valencia, Jordan, Realbuto, Epperly, Hall, Preisch, Lujan, Amine
184: Nickal, Dean, Brooks, Dudley, Jackson, Zavatsky, Martin, Boyd
197: Cox, Pfarr, Moore, Haught, Weigel, McCutcheon, Studebaker, Rotert
285: Snyder, Medbery, Walz, Nevills, Schafer, Kasper, Hall, Kroells

That all looks extremely reasonable, plus the sizeable upset in the 184 finals.

I like the Top 4 @ 141 in that exact order.

I like what it shows for 133 aside from I think Gross & NaTo flip-flopping the final, and Clark finishing a tad higher.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Just updated my projections above with Suriano's scratch.

 

[jmadden1998]

Here is the new top 8 at 125 with Suriano out

1. Gilman
2. Dance
3. Cruz
4. Piccininni
5. Josh Rodriguez
6. Lizak
7. Lambert
8. Mueller

Team Points (Penn St loses 11 points)

1. Okie St 122
2. Penn St 110
3. Ohio St 101.5
4. Iowa 96.5
5. VA Tech 67 (gained 0.5, Dance MD Lizak in semis)
6. Missouri 62.5