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ESPN playoff predictor

Oklahoma's schedule is a huge advantage for them
Still not sure how Georgia isn't 1 because they're the only team that's a lock with 1 loss
Ohio State's too high
 
LandoComando said:
Oklahoma's schedule is a huge advantage for them
Still not sure how Georgia isn't 1 because they're the only team that's a lock with 1 loss
Ohio State's too high
Click to expand...
The best team Oklahoma plays is #23 Kansas. They're close to a lock. Too bad they beat Texas.

OSU, PSU, and UM all play each other. The winner should be a lock even if 1 loss.

The Pac 12 winner will get in, even with 1 loss.

That leaves the SEC winner. GA is favorite but anything can happen.

IMO the BiG will not get 2 teams in unless Oklahoma gets upset.
 
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bdgan said:
The best team Oklahoma plays is #23 Kansas. They're close to a lock. Too bad they beat Texas.

OSU, PSU, and UM all play each other. The winner should be a lock even if 1 loss.

The Pac 12 winner will get in, even with 1 loss.

That leaves the SEC winner. GA is favorite but anything can happen.

IMO the BiG will not get 2 teams in unless Oklahoma gets upset.
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Oklahoma could have a tough game in the B12 title game…and is very likely out with a loss there.
 
bdgan said:
The best team Oklahoma plays is #23 Kansas. They're close to a lock. Too bad they beat Texas.

OSU, PSU, and UM all play each other. The winner should be a lock even if 1 loss.

The Pac 12 winner will get in, even with 1 loss.

That leaves the SEC winner. GA is favorite but anything can happen.

IMO the BiG will not get 2 teams in unless Oklahoma gets upset.
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I don't think Georgia needs to win the SEC to get in. Just can't lose twice.
 
If Oklahoma goes 12-1 with the 1 in the CCG, wouldn't they very likely still make the playoff? TCU did last year. UGA did in '21, I think. The lack of another strong program lends to the probability.
 
lazydave841 said:
If Oklahoma goes 12-1 with the 1 in the CCG, wouldn't they very likely still make the playoff? TCU did last year. UGA did in '21, I think. The lack of another strong program lends to the probability.
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SEC, BiG, PAC12, and Big 12 winners get in. I don't see how any conference gets 2 in unless Oklahoma loses. Even then a 1 loss Texas team gets in.
 
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lazydave841 said:
If Oklahoma goes 12-1 with the 1 in the CCG, wouldn't they very likely still make the playoff? TCU did last year. UGA did in '21, I think. The lack of another strong program lends to the probability.
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That depends. Who do they lose to and what happens in the other conferences?

Does FSU go undefeated?

What happens in the PAC-12? lots of love for that conference but I don't think their top is as strong as other conferences. Still, if their champ is undefeated, it would be hard to see them not getting in.

So you could have an undefeated ACC champ, an undefeated or even one loss Big Ten and SEC champ and then in that scenario, a one loss OU is probably out.

And Georgia isn't a one loss lock - if they lose to a one loss Bama in the CCG, Bama is in and Georgia is out.
 
bdgan said:
SEC, BiG, PAC12, and Big 12 winners get in. I don't see how any conference gets 2 in unless Oklahoma loses. Even then a 1 loss Texas team gets in.
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I don't believe for a second that the Big XII winner is a lock
 
wilbury said:
And Georgia isn't a one loss lock - if they lose to a one loss Bama in the CCG, Bama is in and Georgia is out.
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Georgia is the two-time defending champ and you think they get left out at 12-1?
Don't believe that for a second. The SEC gets two in the scenario like they usually do.
 
LandoComando said:
I don't believe for a second that the Big XII winner is a lock
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If Oklahoma wins out they'll be in for sure. If Texas wins the Big 12 they'll be tough to keep out.

The ACC winner is in if FL State wins out. They're already ranked #4 in the polls.

I don't see 2 teams from any conference unless there are a lot of upsets.
 
bdgan said:
If Oklahoma wins out they'll be in for sure. If Texas wins the Big 12 they'll be tough to keep out.

The ACC winner is in if FL State wins out. They're already ranked #4 in the polls.

I don't see 2 teams from any conference unless there are a lot of upsets.
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I don't see any scenario in which Georgia at 12-1 losing the SECCG getting left out. They'll be #1 all season and won back to back titles.

Oklahoma and FSU have to run the table to get in.

Does Texas winning out get them in over 11-1 Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State? Maybe but not a 12-1 Georgia that lost a title game.
 
bdgan said:
If Oklahoma wins out they'll be in for sure. If Texas wins the Big 12 they'll be tough to keep out.

The ACC winner is in if FL State wins out. They're already ranked #4 in the polls.

I don't see 2 teams from any conference unless there are a lot of upsets.
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I don’t think a two loss Texas has a strong case if they drop another one then win the Big 12.
 
bdgan said:
SEC, BiG, PAC12, and Big 12 winners get in. I don't see how any conference gets 2 in unless Oklahoma loses. Even then a 1 loss Texas team gets in.
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I will be surprised if any PAC teams comes through without at least two losses.
 
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LandoComando said:
I don't see any scenario in which Georgia at 12-1 losing the SECCG getting left out. They'll be #1 all season and won back to back titles.

Oklahoma and FSU have to run the table to get in.

Does Texas winning out get them in over 11-1 Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State? Maybe but not a 12-1 Georgia that lost a title game.
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The winner of BiG. SEC, and Pac 12 will probably be in even with 1 loss. That means an undefeated ACC or Big 12 champ could be left out. Not much room for 2 teams from any conference.
 
bdgan said:
The winner of BiG. SEC, and Pac 12 will probably be in even with 1 loss. That means an undefeated ACC or Big 12 champ could be left out. Not much room for 2 teams from any conference.
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I not sold Oklahoma or FSU go undefeated or the Pac XII winner only has one lost but even so--Georgia won't be left out at 12-1. That would be the easiest way for convince the SEC and Big Ten to leave the NCAA
 
KCLion said:
I will be surprised if any PAC teams comes through without at least two losses.
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USC, Oregon, and Washington are all undefeated. There have to be several upsets for all of them to lose 2 games
 
I don’t see any non champion 1 loss team getting in over any 0 or 1 loss champion. The CFP committee has been quite consistent that fewest losses is the most important qualification and that CCG winner > non champion if otherwise similar.

It would have to take exception circumstances for a non champion to go in over a champion with the same or fewer losses.

Regardless, lots of football still to be played and it’s impossible to predict. Biggest question would be what if all four P5 conferences have an undefeated champ? I would guess Oklahoma gets the short stick in that case
 
doctornick said:
I don’t see any non champion 1 loss team getting in over any 0 or 1 loss champion. The CFP committee has been quite consistent that fewest losses is the most important qualification and that CCG winner > non champion if otherwise similar.

It would have to take exception circumstances for a non champion to go in over a champion with the same or fewer losses.

Regardless, lots of football still to be played and it’s impossible to predict. Biggest question would be what if all four P5 conferences have an undefeated champ? I would guess Oklahoma gets the short stick in that case
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I think Georgia us the exception you're talking about. If Georgia is #1 all year I'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd fall to 5 regardless of what else happens.
 
LandoComando said:
I think Georgia us the exception you're talking about. If Georgia is #1 all year I'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd fall to 5 regardless of what else happens.
Click to expand...

Let’s see where they’re at in the first cfp rankings. I don’t think they open at #1 on the 31st. Too many other undefeated teams have schedules that will give them some marquee wins between now and then and UGA doesn’t.

Oregon has a gauntlet this month, OSU/PSU winner, USC has multiple ranked matchups, Washington if they beat Oregon. Colorado if Shedeur Sanders manages to track down a Tiffany Patek to flex.
 
bdgan said:
Interestingly they have Oklahoma with the highest chance at 71%. OSU is second at 52%

www.espn.com

Create a path to the College Football Playoff by picking conference championship game winners

Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP contender.
www.espn.com
Click to expand...

The playoff is pretty well locked up.

Michigan isn’t going to lose two games - they get the B1G bid. The pass the looks test vs. the rest of the B1G.

Georgia is a gimme, Oklahoma is a gimme.

After that, it will be a resume game and we won’t win that competition.

We have about a 5% chance of making it. That’s roughly the probability of us beating both Ohio State and Michigan, which is the only way we have a shot.
 
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PaoliLion said:
The playoff is pretty well locked up.

Michigan isn’t going to lose two games - they get the B1G bid. The pass the looks test vs. the rest of the B1G.

Georgia is a gimme, Oklahoma is a gimme.

After that, it will be a resume game and we won’t win that competition.

We have about a 5% chance of making it. That’s roughly the probability of us beating both Ohio State and Michigan, which is the only way we have a shot.
Click to expand...

Michigan is far from a lock with 1 loss given how weak their schedule is. There isn’t an obvious path for them to even make the big ten title game with 1 loss given the tiebreak scenarios. They either lose to 12-0 osu/psu or all 3 split and then osu goes.

So if Michigan drops a game they’d either need the west to beat osu in the champ game in the all teams split scenario or for the big ten to get two again.
 
fastlax16 said:
Michigan is far from a lock with 1 loss given how weak their schedule is. There isn’t an obvious path for them to even make the big ten title game with 1 loss given the tiebreak scenarios. They either lose to 12-0 osu/psu or all 3 split and then osu goes.

So if Michigan drops a game they’d either need the west to beat osu in the champ game in the all teams split scenario or for the big ten to get two again.
Click to expand...

The B1G title game is hardly a resume builder
 
LandoComando said:
I think Georgia us the exception you're talking about. If Georgia is #1 all year I'm not sure why anyone thinks they'd fall to 5 regardless of what else happens.
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There is zero chance that a 1 loss Georgia gets in over any undefeated conference champion (and we certainly can see that still from 4 conferences)
 
fastlax16 said:
Let’s see where they’re at in the first cfp rankings. I don’t think they open at #1 on the 31st. Too many other undefeated teams have schedules that will give them some marquee wins between now and then and UGA doesn’t.

Oregon has a gauntlet this month, OSU/PSU winner, USC has multiple ranked matchups, Washington if they beat Oregon. Colorado if Shedeur Sanders manages to track down a Tiffany Patek to flex.
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Lol about Colorado
It's a fair point but I'd be stunned if Georgia isn't 1. Not saying they're proven the most this year but it's an undefeated two time defending national championship from the SEC.
 
LandoComando said:
Lol about Colorado
It's a fair point but I'd be stunned if Georgia isn't 1. Not saying they're proven the most this year but it's an undefeated two time defending national championship from the SEC.
Click to expand...

Imagine this scenario:

UGA undefeated. Big 10, PAC, ACC, and Big 12 champs undefeated.

CCG week, 1 loss Bama defeats UGA. The other 4 win their CCGs and finish undefeated.

What 4 teams does the committee select?
 
lazydave841 said:
Imagine this scenario:

UGA undefeated. Big 10, PAC, ACC, and Big 12 champs undefeated.

CCG week, 1 loss Bama defeats UGA. The other 4 win their CCGs and finish undefeated.

What 4 teams does the committee select?
Click to expand...
The only one I’d be sure they’d take is Bama.
 
lazydave841 said:
Imagine this scenario:

UGA undefeated. Big 10, PAC, ACC, and Big 12 champs undefeated.

CCG week, 1 loss Bama defeats UGA. The other 4 win their CCGs and finish undefeated.

What 4 teams does the committee select?
Click to expand...
FSU and OU would be very worried
 
lazydave841 said:
Imagine this scenario:

UGA undefeated. Big 10, PAC, ACC, and Big 12 champs undefeated.

CCG week, 1 loss Bama defeats UGA. The other 4 win their CCGs and finish undefeated.

What 4 teams does the committee select?
Click to expand...
Big 10, PAC, ACC (if it's FSU) and Bama. Georgia isn't getting in if they lose their only challenging game of the year.
 
lazydave841 said:
Quite possible, but 4 Power 5 undefeated conference champions would be tough to argue out.
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Would it? Not all conferences are equal. I'm sure some people would riot but FBS is truly about 2 conferences
There's no chance the SEC or Big Ten is left out.
 
wilbury said:
Big 10, PAC, ACC (if it's FSU) and Bama. Georgia isn't getting in if they lose their only challenging game of the year.
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You saying it's their only challenging game isn't how the committee sees things. The SEC is still viewed as one of the deepest. The ACC and Big XII are the weakest. The Big Ten is really the Big 3 in everyone's minds.
 
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