And to make things more confusing, there could be 2 undefeated ACC teams. If UNC, FSU and Louisville all win out only 2 of them go to the CC game.
ESPN playoff predictor
- Thread starter bdgan
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It won't be. You're overvalued the impact of 1 game against Texas. 51 SOS the rest of way compared to 21.
Everyone fully understands this is the last year of the 4 team playoff, right? Anyone that believes the SEC and Big Ten won't be well represented hasn't been paying attention. Bama losing to Texas means they have to win out. Georgia Penn State Michigan and Ohio State are in great shape. The only reason 2 Big Ten teams aren't a lock is because of the Pac XII
In the scenario you stated, OU would likely have two wins over Texas. And there are various ways of measuring SOS. I see Georgia is at 80th and OU at 25th today.
Today...two wins over Texas and literally nothing else. Whether you agree with it SEC wins have far more value than Big XII wins. We all know this. People bitch constantly about LSU being ranked for example.
Last year is irrelevant.
They've yet to break one precedent:
Taking a 1 loss P5 over undefeated P5 conference champion.
0 is less than 1 every time so far. Wasn't the argument by some that Washington got in over us in '16 because 1 was less than 2?
Again, I will reiterate my belief that anything is possible because it's people saying who goes, but this would break the strongest precedent that they have always set.
OU would have two wins over Texas (who beat SEC champ Bama), and wins over Kansas and WV. Four good wins.
Georgia would have a win over Tennessee, and Kentucky. Two good wins. Teams closer to Kansas and WV than to Texas.
FSU is currently ranked 4th in the polls. You're saying if they win out they will not finish in the top 4 in BCS?
Do you think they should stop playing since they can't win and remaining games are just glorified exhibitions?
It's not irrelevant. It very, very important.
Washington got in over us because we lost to a bad Pitt team and embarrassed by Michigan not simply because of 2 losses.
When have we had a two time defending champ at 12-1 getting left out for a conference champ?
Correct
Washington or Oregon jump them Monday
Penn State or Ohio State jump them the following Monday
I didn't say they can't make the playoffs. I said they can't over certain teams.
Which Power 5 teams are locks if they go undefeated?
UGA
ScUM
OSU
PSU
Wash
Oregon
USC
FSU?
I don't think a UGA team with one loss in the SEC CG is still a shoe in for the playoff. Worst case scenario for them is:
BigTen champ undefeated
FSU ACC champ undefeated
Pac 12 champ undefeated
Bama one loss and SEC champ and beat UGA head to head
Who does not get in so UGA can get in? FSU, Pac 12 champ? Maybe but wow to reject two undefeated teams from Power 5 conferences would be surprising to me. FSU would have the win over LSU and possibly undefeated UNC in ACC CG. Don't see any way an undefeated USC, Oregon or Washington is shunned in favor of a one loss UGA.
On a different note, if we don't go undefeated or win the tie breaker and then we will be fighting with other 1 loss conf champs assuming we catch a break and not many if any undefeated teams. The committee loves their conf champs so that makes me nervous.
UGA
ScUM
OSU
PSU
Wash
Oregon
USC
FSU?
I don't think a UGA team with one loss in the SEC CG is still a shoe in for the playoff. Worst case scenario for them is:
BigTen champ undefeated
FSU ACC champ undefeated
Pac 12 champ undefeated
Bama one loss and SEC champ and beat UGA head to head
Who does not get in so UGA can get in? FSU, Pac 12 champ? Maybe but wow to reject two undefeated teams from Power 5 conferences would be surprising to me. FSU would have the win over LSU and possibly undefeated UNC in ACC CG. Don't see any way an undefeated USC, Oregon or Washington is shunned in favor of a one loss UGA.
On a different note, if we don't go undefeated or win the tie breaker and then we will be fighting with other 1 loss conf champs assuming we catch a break and not many if any undefeated teams. The committee loves their conf champs so that makes me nervous.
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FSU is currently unranked in the only poll that matters, because it won't be released until 10/31.
I guarantee they will not finish in the top 4 of the BCS since the BCS ceased to exist a decade ago.
If both Bama and Georgia have a loss, the SEC would be behind undefeated champs from the Big Ten, PAC, B12 & ACC. We have never seen that many undefeated champs, but it *could* happen. It would be HILARIOUS to see the SEC left out in the cold.
And your last sentence explains all the nonsense you've said. You have to learn to set the bias aside if you want to have a real discussion.
You haven't come up with ONE explanation as to why a one loss Georgia would be picked over any undefeated P5 champ. They'd have A) a worse record, & B) fewer important wins.
No one has agreed with your prediction. Why is that?
Their overall record resume is better. Two-time defending champ. They're in the SEC.
You again are dismissing it because of your bias against the SEC as you made clear
Most people here don't like to deal with "what is" but instead they like to create scenarios they think play out in their favor. Like pretending Iowa and WVU are "important" wins.
Georgia at 12-1 will never get left out. Never.
Last year of playoff is irrelevant. UGA is already benefitting from being 2 time champ because prior to beating UK, they have not looked like the #1 team and if polls were initially put out at, say, week 4, they wouldn't have been placed at 1 if based on THIS SEASON.
And again, the SEC has not placed themself in danger of missing the playoff. It is probably a low probability of happening this year. I am only pointing out that if the committee holds true, a 1 loss team is not getting in over 4 undefeated P5 champs. You are allowed to disagree. It doesn't mean you are more correct than me or any of the others here who are pointing out what the committee has been doing since 2014.
You are the one using SEC bias. The SEC has never been on the fringe. It would be an outlier for the 4 team era. We are all having real discussions. Your thoughts on it are not more real than any others here. You have a belief that contradicts 9 years of committee selection process.
Again, it's not irrelevant. It's very, very important.
We can of course disagree--when we see a 12-1 Georgia get left out someone please let me know.
It doesn't contradict it. How many 12-1 SEC teams have ever been left out?
How many times have their been 4 P5 undefeated conference champions AND neither of the 4 were from the SEC?
Right...we can all use any crazy scenario we want. The request here is for me to believe the committee is going to exclude a 12-1 two time defending champion from the SEC that went undefeated in the regular season for the champion of a weak ACC or Big XII. Think about that. Not all P5 are created equal. If the Pac XII wasn't as good as they are and the Big Ten could have 2 of the big 3 in the title game I'd sat they'd get 2 teams as well but the Pac XII throws that off.
I don't personally like the way they have picked 4 teams to begin with. There should have been at least 8 if we were leaving the BCS format and there should have been qualifiers to get in.
Alas, I'm only judging by the system. I'm just stating what the committee has done. You can't tell me I'm wrong because I'm just reciting the unwritten rules. I'm not stating what I think should happen. I'm stating, under a set of circumstances, what is likely to occur.
If the "rules" are unwritten do they exist?
And, we agree, the entire format was dumb from day 1 but we know the history involving Georgia's success and their love of the SEC. To me, that easily trumps running the table in a bad P5 conference. The Big XII in particular has 2 teams--maybe 3 if Kansas improves and those three aren't on the level of Michigan-Penn State-Ohio State.
I just don't see OU or FSU getting the benefit of the doubt even at 13-0. Hell, leaders with FSU may like that as they try to leave the ACC lol
Sure they do. They haven't broken them yet. They cite them every time they defend their choices. I'm not saying they can't break them. It's 13 people in a room who genuinely could be fielding calls from networks specifying who they want and where. Then again, they gave Cincy a shot.
Did they give Cincy a shot as a 4 seed against Bama hoping that would stop any argument in the future?
The only 1 loss team that year was a team they beat. It was the perfect scenario to be like "here, you got a G5 team now never ask again once they lose"
I'd lean more towards perfect scenario to offer a G5 with zero resistance.
If the SEC bias is going to be used this year (you had Bama and UGA getting in), why didn't they jump TCU with Bama last year? Same scenario could be used. What is the difference? Simply UGA 2x defending champ?
The other key is that they are using the FPI to build the models, and that rating currently has OSU #1 in the country...so, they think even more highly of them than others.
Part of it had to do with all the Big XII complaining but with the expansion coming that won't be relevant.
And, yes, Bama wasn't the depending champ let alone the 2x defending champ.
LAST YEAR DOESN'T MATTER.
Georgia being the "two time champ" doesn't cover up the Dawgs having by far the weakest resume in that scenario.
See you're delusional believing the past doesn't matter.
And they don't have the weakest resume--it's just you want them to have the weakest resume.
If Georgia wins again this year you're going to be so confused.
They weren’t a one loss SEC champion last year. No way they leave out the SEC champ unless it happened to be a team like Kentucky. If it’s GA or Bama, they’re in.
Yeah, you are right as I think about how the dominos would fall. Going into that conf championship weekend you could have...
#1 UGA undefeated
#2 Mich undefeated
#3 USC, Oregon or Washington one of them undefeated
#4 FSU undefeated
#5 Bama 1 loss
#6 Okie undefeated could be #5 but does not matter
When Bama beats UGA they jump to #2 or #3, Pac12 undefeated team is #2 or stays #3 after winning their CG. UGA goes to #4. Mich #1 after boat racing some lame B10 West opponent. FSU left out in the cold no matter what they do in the ACC CG. As is Okie even if they win the B12 CG.
PSU could be up there with one loss but we get jumped by Bama and are left out.
You either have no idea what you are talking about or else you just want to be difficult (or both). The only thing you are right about is that the SEC won't get left out. But if Georgia loses to a one loss Bama in the CCG, Bama with be the SEC representative. They'll have wins over A&M on the road, Tennessee and LSU, plus be Conference Champions plus own the head to head over Georgia with an identical record and a tougher strength of schedule and higher ranking.
It's all moot anyhow because I don't see Bama going undefeated the rest of the season but Saban has a way getting things right.
I absolutely know what i'm talking about here. If you want to disagree so be it but believing a 12-1, two-time defending national champion is going to be left out of the playoff is delusional IMO. Bama will be in--so will Georgia. Just we've seen two teams from the same conferences before.
If Georgia is 12-0 going into that final game they won't fall 4 spots losing to 11-1 Bama on a neutral site. There's no chance.
Lando is right here. You are correct that in that scenario Bama is in as the SEC champ BUT UGA will not drop out of the top 4. UGA will be #1 and drop to #4. If FSU is undefeated they still lose out and don't get in because of SoS vs UGA. They will not free fall UGA out of the top 4 for losing to a good Bama team who was undefeated in the SEC. I know it seems counterintuitive to put in a 1 loss non conf champ over an undefeated conf champ but I believe it will go that way. The committee loves the SEC.
You forgot “under the right circumstances”.
Because you think so highly of your own opinion. Multiple scenarios have been presented that would leave UGA out. Doesn’t mean they would be guaranteed not to make it at 12-1 (with a CCG loss).
Actually people have said repeatedly they wouldn't be in but they would be. I mean, if we go 13-0 I hope things play out so we see who gets in. Although then we probably play Georgia so I'd be praying I was wrong but we'd get Georgia.
