Extremely small sample size but,....
- Thread starter nits74
- Start date
Not really. Not basing it on these games alone, but after thinking about it, the relative personnel. The Reds do play very good defense, have a good bullpen, and have some hitters with a proven history. Votto, Bruce, Frazier, Phillips. Not that the Bucs don't have the hitters, but their defense isn't as good, and they don't have a Chapman in the pen. But saying all that, it still comes down to starting pitching. On balance, the Bucs' appear to have an edge in that area, but the Reds do have something the Pirates do not, and that's an ace. What I'm saying is, don't sell the Reds short.
This post was edited on 4/9 1:17 PM by nits74
This post was edited on 4/9 1:17 PM by nits74
Had the same thoughts.
I can see the Pirates finishing anywhere from first to fourth in that division. Reds will not finish lower than third.
The Reds are the most under-rated team in that division. If they stay healthy and can get some decent pitching they will challenge for the post-season. So might the Pirates but I see more downside in the Pirates than the Reds.
I can see the Pirates finishing anywhere from first to fourth in that division. Reds will not finish lower than third.
The Reds are the most under-rated team in that division. If they stay healthy and can get some decent pitching they will challenge for the post-season. So might the Pirates but I see more downside in the Pirates than the Reds.
Worse team chemistry, and I strongly disagree on the bullpen
The Reds DO have talent, you're right. But I view it is a matter of "not if, but when" --- at some point Brandon Phillips will start whining and Jay Bruce will hit a slump and Joey Votto will disengage from it all. The Reds will go 9-24 through that 5-week stretch sink to the bottom of the division.
Much as I thought Dusty Baker was an idiot from a tactical POV, he always kept a pretty good clubhouse. The Reds miss that given their personality types.
So the Reds now have 2 victories among their relief pitchers in 2015. That's more victories by Reds' relief pitchers than for the ENTIRE second half of the 2014 season. Think about that statistic for a second.
The Reds DO have talent, you're right. But I view it is a matter of "not if, but when" --- at some point Brandon Phillips will start whining and Jay Bruce will hit a slump and Joey Votto will disengage from it all. The Reds will go 9-24 through that 5-week stretch sink to the bottom of the division.
Much as I thought Dusty Baker was an idiot from a tactical POV, he always kept a pretty good clubhouse. The Reds miss that given their personality types.
So the Reds now have 2 victories among their relief pitchers in 2015. That's more victories by Reds' relief pitchers than for the ENTIRE second half of the 2014 season. Think about that statistic for a second.
Gotta disagree
Better defense? Reds had the top defense in baseball last year, so I think you're right there. Though I expect a full season of Harrison at 3rd instead of Pedro will move the Pirates much closer to even with the Reds (as would swapping positions between Cutch and Marte, but that won't happen).
Bullpen I'd also give to the bucs. Any Reds fan will tell you how bad their bullpen is after Chapman. The first two games obviously didn't reflect well on the Pirates 'pen, but Watson/Melancon is an elite setup/closer combo. And Hughes, Holdzkom (eventually) + Locke (eventually) is a really solid pen. The Reds after Chapman don't match up with that at all.
Hitting is where you really lose me though. Let's go position v. position:
C - Mesoraco v. Cervelli - advantage REDS. Meso looks great early in his career, pretty clear.
1B - Votto v. Alvarez - advantage REDS. Votto, despite some recent injuries, is a great player that should bounce back this year. That said, Alvarez should also bounce back this year to some extent.
2B - Phillips v. Walker - advantage PIRATES. Not really even close. Phillips isn't the same player he was in 2012. His oWAR has been 1.7 and 1.1 the past 2 years, while Walker has been a 3.0 and 3.9.
3B - Frazier v. Harrison - PUSH. Frazier's 4.6 oWAR to Harrison's 3.9. However, Harrison started as a utility guy and thus had 110 fewer ABs to boost that number. Very different players, but very similar values. Reds fans will tell you Frazier can be fantastic, but is also prone to loooong droughts.
SS - Cozart v. Mercer - advantage PIRATES. Cozart is great on D, but we're only talking hitting here, and Mercer is a 2.3 and 1.9 oWAR to Cozart's 1.0 and 0.3 the past seasons.
RF - Bruce v. Polanco - PUSH. I know Polanco is still an unproven commodity, but Bruce had a negative oWAR (-0.1) last year (to Polanco's 0.4), and that can't be ignored either. Polanco will never have his power, but he's likely to be a better hitter with much better on-base numbers.
LF - Byrd v. Marte - advantage PIRATES. Byrd isn't getting younger at 37, and his oWAR dropped from 3.9 to 2.0 last year. Marte meanwhile is only getting better and was one of the 5 best hitters in the league the last two months of last year. Contrary to Byrd, he increased his oWAR the past two years, from 3.1 to 4.2.
CF - McCutchen v. Hamilton - advantage PIRATES by an absurd margin. Cutch's 7.3 and 7.8 oWARs the past 2 years are among the best in the league. Hamilton, despite his speed, isn't much help at the plate, carrying only a 1.1 oWAR last year.
So position by position, I see the Pirates up 4-2 with 2 pushes. There are some changes to each team's lineup from last year, but those changes basically balance out. And the Pirates outscored the Reds by a mile last year.
This post was edited on 4/9 3:56 PM by wbcincy
You conceded starting pitching, and I think you're right.
Better defense? Reds had the top defense in baseball last year, so I think you're right there. Though I expect a full season of Harrison at 3rd instead of Pedro will move the Pirates much closer to even with the Reds (as would swapping positions between Cutch and Marte, but that won't happen).
Bullpen I'd also give to the bucs. Any Reds fan will tell you how bad their bullpen is after Chapman. The first two games obviously didn't reflect well on the Pirates 'pen, but Watson/Melancon is an elite setup/closer combo. And Hughes, Holdzkom (eventually) + Locke (eventually) is a really solid pen. The Reds after Chapman don't match up with that at all.
Hitting is where you really lose me though. Let's go position v. position:
C - Mesoraco v. Cervelli - advantage REDS. Meso looks great early in his career, pretty clear.
1B - Votto v. Alvarez - advantage REDS. Votto, despite some recent injuries, is a great player that should bounce back this year. That said, Alvarez should also bounce back this year to some extent.
2B - Phillips v. Walker - advantage PIRATES. Not really even close. Phillips isn't the same player he was in 2012. His oWAR has been 1.7 and 1.1 the past 2 years, while Walker has been a 3.0 and 3.9.
3B - Frazier v. Harrison - PUSH. Frazier's 4.6 oWAR to Harrison's 3.9. However, Harrison started as a utility guy and thus had 110 fewer ABs to boost that number. Very different players, but very similar values. Reds fans will tell you Frazier can be fantastic, but is also prone to loooong droughts.
SS - Cozart v. Mercer - advantage PIRATES. Cozart is great on D, but we're only talking hitting here, and Mercer is a 2.3 and 1.9 oWAR to Cozart's 1.0 and 0.3 the past seasons.
RF - Bruce v. Polanco - PUSH. I know Polanco is still an unproven commodity, but Bruce had a negative oWAR (-0.1) last year (to Polanco's 0.4), and that can't be ignored either. Polanco will never have his power, but he's likely to be a better hitter with much better on-base numbers.
LF - Byrd v. Marte - advantage PIRATES. Byrd isn't getting younger at 37, and his oWAR dropped from 3.9 to 2.0 last year. Marte meanwhile is only getting better and was one of the 5 best hitters in the league the last two months of last year. Contrary to Byrd, he increased his oWAR the past two years, from 3.1 to 4.2.
CF - McCutchen v. Hamilton - advantage PIRATES by an absurd margin. Cutch's 7.3 and 7.8 oWARs the past 2 years are among the best in the league. Hamilton, despite his speed, isn't much help at the plate, carrying only a 1.1 oWAR last year.
So position by position, I see the Pirates up 4-2 with 2 pushes. There are some changes to each team's lineup from last year, but those changes basically balance out. And the Pirates outscored the Reds by a mile last year.
This post was edited on 4/9 3:56 PM by wbcincy
I think a lot of it has to do with bandwagon jumping. Pundits are enamored
by the new kids on the block. It's trendy to pick the Pirates, but I won't disagree with you. The Reds will be a factor.
by the new kids on the block. It's trendy to pick the Pirates, but I won't disagree with you. The Reds will be a factor.
I'd give 3B to Frazier, but that's definitely vary fair and well done
Even at a 3-3-2 tie, McCutchen is so much better it blows the entire tie out of the water.
Jay Bruce sucks. You recognize that, but I think there are a lot of folk who don't realize what a marginal player he is becoming.
Even at a 3-3-2 tie, McCutchen is so much better it blows the entire tie out of the water.
Jay Bruce sucks. You recognize that, but I think there are a lot of folk who don't realize what a marginal player he is becoming.
Re: I'd give 3B to Frazier, but that's definitely vary fair and well done
Even making that move, we're still left with Pirates advantage of 4-3-1 as it just moves a push to the reds rather than taking one from the Bucs. And as you said, the chasm between Cutch and Hamilton makes it even larger than that indicates.
I could easily be talked into Frazier over Harrison just because Harrison hasn't proven it over more than 3/4 of a year, whereas Frazier has a couple good seasons under his belt (also Frazier is my mother's maiden name).
Even making that move, we're still left with Pirates advantage of 4-3-1 as it just moves a push to the reds rather than taking one from the Bucs. And as you said, the chasm between Cutch and Hamilton makes it even larger than that indicates.
Re: Gotta disagree
Good analysis, Cincy. Only thing I might argue with, at least at this point, is the Bruce/Polanco comparison. Bruce has more experience and he was injured last year. i expect he'll be much better this year. Still waiting for Polanco's power, and his defense has been average. I do expect both to improve, but maybe not enough this year. With respect to left, Marte still mystifies me. One final comment is that I'm still not as enamored of Cole as most appear to be. Seems to work too slowly and throws a lot of pitches (could just be a mistaken impression on my part).
Anyway, not a good way to start the season, that's for sure. Hope they don't dig themselves another hole, but they're on their way to doing just that.
Good analysis, Cincy. Only thing I might argue with, at least at this point, is the Bruce/Polanco comparison. Bruce has more experience and he was injured last year. i expect he'll be much better this year. Still waiting for Polanco's power, and his defense has been average. I do expect both to improve, but maybe not enough this year. With respect to left, Marte still mystifies me. One final comment is that I'm still not as enamored of Cole as most appear to be. Seems to work too slowly and throws a lot of pitches (could just be a mistaken impression on my part).
Anyway, not a good way to start the season, that's for sure. Hope they don't dig themselves another hole, but they're on their way to doing just that.
