Flo 157 Rankings

[tikk10]

http://www.flowrestling.org/ranking/1451-nolf-back-in-the-top-spot/2016-09-24/157

1 through 8 =
Nolf, Dylan Palacio, Joe Smith, Brian Murphy, Mitch Minotti, Rohskopf, Kemerer, Richie Lewis

Of the guys ranked behind him, Nolf has bonused the 3, 4, and 5 guys (Smith, Murphy, Minotti). Palacio could be a fun match, and it'll be interesting to see where Kemerer fits.

 

[matter7172]

I'm looking through the weight class and have to think Nolf is right there with Zain, Dean and Snyder as "locks".

 

[jtothemfp]

Uggh, Rohskopf. Not in the mood for that dude's social media this season.

 

[jtothemfp]

I'm looking through the weight class and have to think Nolf is right there with Zain, Dean and Snyder as "locks".

Agreed. How would you rank them as locks, in order of confidence?

 

[matter7172]

Agreed. How would you rank them as locks, in order of confidence?

Probably Snyder, Zain, Dean and Nolf. But it's really splitting hairs. Any of them them not winning falls into the "major shock" category.

 

[edquinn06]

Probably Snyder, Zain, Dean and Nolf. But it's really splitting hairs. Any of them them not winning falls into the "major shock" category.

Cox?

 

[El-Jefe]

157-Jason Nolf.

 

[tikk10]

Lock order is as much about the guys below as the top guy himself. My lock order would go group one [Zain, Nolf, Snyder, Cox], group two [Dean, Imar], group three [Gilman, Clark, Bo, Heil].

Snyder and Cox are more accomplished than Zain and Nolf but they're both going to be in closer matches throughout the year, and there are more dangerous guys below them (Walz for Snyder and, well, Breff Pfarr? below Cox). Dean showed he can lose to a middle tier guy last year, and Imar has what might be the toughest weight class. Bo, Gilman, Clark are all strong runners-up from last year in weight classes vacated by champs. Heil deserves the 1 spot at 133 but couldn't major anyone ranked last year, and often needed overtime against his toughest competition.

 

[matter7172]

Cox?

His sophomore season makes me less confident about him.

 

[edquinn06]

I would think his Olympic run and the fact his weight class is one of the weaker ones this year would make you more confident.

 

[edquinn06]

Lock order is as much about the guys below as the top guy himself. My lock order would go group one [Zain, Nolf, Snyder, Cox], group two [Dean, Imar], group three [Gilman, Clark, Bo, Heil].

Snyder and Cox are more accomplished than Zain and Nolf but they're both going to be in closer matches throughout the year, and there are more dangerous guys below them (Walz for Snyder and, well, Breff Pfarr? below Cox). Dean showed he can lose to a middle tier guy last year, and Imar has what might be the toughest weight class. Bo, Gilman, Clark are all strong runners-up from last year in weight classes vacated by champs. Heil deserves the 1 spot at 133 but couldn't major anyone ranked last year, and often needed overtime against his toughest competition.

You have a guy that has not even won a title as a lock over guys that have won multiple titles? Interesting...

 

[El-Jefe]

Don't put any stock in Dean's loss to Boyd. 14-10 loss to the #4 placer after being out sick for 3 weeks ...

Unless Bo and/or Zahid go 184, he's no less vulnerable than the first 4 guys.

 

[El-Jefe]

You have a guy that has not even won a title as a lock over guys that have won multiple titles? Interesting...

How many of those other guys pinned a 2x champ when up by a major decision?

 

[tikk10]

You have a guy that has not even won a title as a lock over guys that have won multiple titles? Interesting...

Again, it's as much about who's below you and the type of match you wrestle as your own resume. Put IMar back at 157 and Nolf isn't even on the list, and IMar falls below Heil. Nolf has bonused the 3, 4, and 5 guys at 157 (including a tech and a pin) and there's no reason to think the 2-guy, Palacio, with losses last year to Murphy and Brascetta and a lot of DECs, is in his tier.

 

[El-Jefe]

His sophomore season makes me less confident about him.

You mean when he lost in the semis to that year's world champ?

Tough crowd

 

[edquinn06]

How many of those other guys pinned a 2x champ when up by a major decision?

Don't get me wrong, I think Nolf is going to rattle out 3 titles. But you can't put him as a lock over Cox, Dean, and IMart who have all won 2 when he has yet to win 1.

 

[RoarLions1]

Not sure I remember a season with so many heavy favorites ("lock" should not be used, imo).

I'd add the Senior Gabe Dean to tikk's list above for "Group One Favorites", meaning Zain, Jason, Dean, Cox, and Snyder. I'll go with tikk's "Group Two", and "Group Three" list.

FYI...in the past 10 years, the #1 seed has won a National Championship 51% of the time, with a low of "3 of 10", or 30% in 2014, and a high of "7 of 10", or 70% in 2012. Since 8 places have been awarded AA status at the NCAA Championships (1979), #1 seeds have won championships. In ONLY 3 years since 1979, have more #2 seeds won championships than #1 seeds, and 2 of those were back-to-back (1981 & 1982).

 

[El-Jefe]

Don't get me wrong, I think Nolf is going to rattle out 3 titles. But you can't put him as a lock over Cox, Dean, and IMart who have all won 2 when he has yet to win 1.

With Cox, not over. Over Martinez and Dean? Sure I can. Who's gonna beat him?

I think all 4 of them win. But there is some uncertainty with Martinez: moving up into a loaded weight, where we have yet to see him wrestle. Dean: some uncertainty about opposition (Bo and Zahid both definitely 174?), plus he historically has 1-2 low-scoring matches at nationals, which leaves little margin.

 

[ZepGraffiti]

Don't get me wrong, I think Nolf is going to rattle out 3 titles. But you can't put him as a lock over Cox, Dean, and IMart who have all won 2 when he has yet to win 1.

Are you struggling with the concept of the level of competition at a particular weight class? You're 100% history based, but the concept requires at least a little bit of foresight/prediction. IMO

 

[El-Jefe]

Are you struggling with the concept of the level of competition at a particular weight class? You're 100% history based, but the concept requires at least a little bit of foresight/prediction. IMO

Under the concept of credentialism, in 2014 Tony Nelson would've been a greater lock than David Taylor.

 

[CholleyVandine]

You have a guy that has not even won a title as a lock over guys that have won multiple titles? Interesting...

If you find that "interesting," you just might not understand the exercise.

Who would you have said was more likely to win a title before the 2012-13 season, David Taylor, who was a defending champ, two-time finalist and reigning Hodge Trophy winner, or Chris Perry, who had not made it to the finals in his first two years?

With the benefit of hindsight, we know it was Perry. That's not because he was better than Taylor. It's because Taylor had Dake in his weight class.

Dean is going to have a defending champion, a deep group of proven upper classmen, and (if Zahid goes 184) likely the best freshman to hit the mat this season. I would pick him to win, but his path to a title is not as clear as Nolf's.

 

[RoarLions1]

Not just Zahid...

 

[RoarLions1]

5 of the top-8 at 157 are SR's. Just an fyi...as the top guy is a SO.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

I'm looking through the weight class and have to think Nolf is right there with Zain, Dean and Snyder as "locks".

Zain isn't the only one dishing out pain

 

[RoarLions1]

Jason is slicker, Zain is pure power.

 

[nitlion6]

Jason is slicker, Zain is pure power.

Both, relentless!

 

[James P. Whitters III]

Such different guys who create similar outcomes. Zain breaks people with constant grinding and Nolf just makes it look effortless. I love watching both, but Nolf is probably my favorite college wrestler to watch at this time. Bo is not far behind Nolf from an entertainment perspective. Poor unstoppable Zain is my number 3 guy on his own team (lol like he cares). I have a feeling Joseph is going to be fun based on what I saw in limited freestyle matches.

 

[RoarLions1]

Saw Zain today...again and again, this young man never ceases to amaze. Talked only briefly, true gentleman. Ferocious on the mat though (and when competing at ANYTHING with his team mates, lol)!!