For our friends in The UK...
- Thread starter ericstratton-rushchairman
- Start date
This was written several day ago but it's maybe the most thoughtful (non-hysterical) analysis out there. Likely Brexit really hurts the London financial industry but it could actually benefit ordinary Britons elsewhere in the country -- because the drop in the pound will make British agricultural and manufactured goods more competitive.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/notes-on-brexit/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/notes-on-brexit/
I took a class in EU law - the regulatory overlap is mind numbing. Their cosseted, entitled, out of touch political class makes our own politicians look like pikers.
How is a representative democracy (i.e. a republic) fascism?? If you look through the writings of the Founding Fathers, they were not for a direct democracy system. One of the reasons is that it often is not stable--changing with each wind of public opinion. One example? The Senate was not popularly elected in the original Constitution. Now if you want to call the Founding Fathers fascist, have at it. But they weren't. Neither am I.
The wisdom of the Constitution is that it slows down change to something manageable and has checks and balances so that the system stays afloat. The French Revolution, for example, created a pure democracy. That French Republic collapsed within about 10 years--as it followed every whim of the populace--and executed or imprisoned those who fell out of favor, followed by that group in turn being executed or imprisoned as they fell out of favor with the people.
Our Constitutional system is not perfect to be sure. But it's worked for over 230 years. That's a pretty good record for any government.
I would agree it is very bad for the EU. I am skeptical when I see nearly every pundit tells us how the sky will fall because of this. How many times have we heard this before?
I would normally agree with you, but historically this type of nationalism tends to go wonky in Europe, n'est-ce pas??
Nice use of British slang and a fitting French phrase - way to class up this joint.
Football hooliganism has been a proxy for war with frustrated European youth.
But on the serious tip, Scotland could vote for independence given their strong opposition to Brexit. If that domino falls, watch out for Catalonia, etc.
Extra points for word usage. Could we add "mollycoddled"?
I've read some really good, thoughtful posts here today, with a minimum of political rhetoric. Refreshing.
Well, let me be more specific. Yes. In 1787, we NEEDED representatives to the House. Why? Well, there were no public schools. How many people could read or write. Hell, it took Thomas Paine to explain basic rights to the common man.
But, today, practically EVERYONE can read and write. Plus, we all have access to the internet. So, why can't the House now be a TRUE Democracy? I would leave the Senate and Executive alone, except term limits, but I would change the House to become a TRUE democracy of the people: Internet and video conferencing makes it now a possibility.
Why can't people choose their own course? Having a House of the people gets people involved and discussing issues.
Because their are just too many issues and way too much complexity. Would you leave the war or terror to public voting? How about cyber-security? What about our tax code?
It works just the way it is. The people vote someone in and monitor his/her performance. If they are pleased, the re-elect him/her. If not, they vote the other skink in.
It's called CHANGE. Back in 1787 they said the same thing you just said in 2016. The world felt our "experiment" would fail due to its complexity.
You still have the Senate and veto power of the Executive side. But, it gets common man involved and gives them a distinct voice.
You're so wrong. We should and must embrace change that gives the common citizen MORE of a political voice. That is the CORRECT direction.
we've seen this story unfold before in Europe. same plot, different characters
So walk me through the operations on that. Orlando shooting, may or may not be a hit on gays, may or may not be Muslim extremists, may or may not be a gun issue, may or may not be an FBI vetting issues, may or may not be a failure of existing gun regulations....do we call a referendum on what to do about shootings like Orlando, San Bernardino, and others? How would that work, exactly? How would you assure that there isn't voter fraud? Who is going to pay for it?
Thinking folks are thinking: "What Mikey really wants is a world war. He thinks they are fun."
If that happens, will the English need to build a Wall in the north (and make the Scots pay for it)?
Unless, of course, not. London will no longer be the financial capital of Europe. No longer be a cultural capital of Europe. The UK becomes France's little sister. SMH at how many of you just cannot divorce yourself from RWNJ BS.
Its an interesting point. I read a short article suggesting that Germany was driving EU policies and that this was detrimental to other EU members. Ostensibly, Germany was using their position and power to grow while most other EU members suffered. You don't have to go back further than 102 years to understand the fear and/or fanning of those flames.
The sky isn't going to fall because of this. But sometimes the sky-will-fall warnings are correct. Don't make the mistake of believing that just because someone says the sky will fall that they're always wrong. Like the morons who opposed TARP and the bailouts and the Fed's actions to flood the banking system with cash in 2008-09. That was a very, very scary time and the Tea Party Republicans were playing with fire -- there was a very real risk of a worldwide depression that would have lasted for the rest of our lives. Or the brinksmanship over the debt limit -- you do NOT toy with the notion of a U.S. bond default. Nothing could be more catastrophic to the world economy than a loss of confidence in U.S. credit.
But Brexit is nothing like this. It doesn't fundamentally change who Britain is, who the EU is. It's not even a change of currency. And there is a two year transition process built in so the grownups can carry it out in the most sensible way. As Paul Krugman estimates, it's probably going to cost Britain a few points of GDP growth in future years, but a cheaper pound could benefit a lot of people in Britain too.
Perhaps so. But, that was then and this is now. Europe has changed. Aren't the real stats/projections going forward what should really matter? This is not a fantasy world. It is a world moving into the future....as much as some people would like to try to resist the march of time. (Futile, no?)
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God Bless the Brits. I love this short clip from the last night of the 2011 BBC Proms.
Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free,
How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?
Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set;
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet,
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet.
Land of Hope and Glory, Mother of the Free,
How shall we extol thee, who are born of thee?
Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set;
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet,
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet.
on a side note . . . my neighbor was rabidly opposed to the recent deal to reduce sanctions with Iran.
he went on his usual anti-Obama rant, but I asked him if he could identify the countries that were really pushing for this deal because they would benefit the most. of course he couldn't . . . it's Germany and Russia. LOL
I guess reading all those Massie books has me in a nostalgic mood today . . .
Krugman has written insightfully on that problem. The problem with the EU is that it's a currency union and a banking union but still separate governments and separate economies.
When the U.S. has a recession and say, Florida's economy is hammered, the system just automatically sends billions of dollars in unemployment and Social Security benefits and other federal government spending to Florida to help stabilize things, because we're one country. So New York helps Florida recover -- it's seamless, almost invisible. In the separate country model (pre-Euro Europe), Florida has their own currency, so their currency falls, Florida products and real estate get cheap, so they sell more stuff and attract capital and that helps them recover.
The problem with Europe it's neither separate economies and currencies nor is it one country. It's in between. So when Spain falls into depression, it can't devalue currency -- in fact the currency is still quite expensive because of Germany's strength. But because Spain is a separate nation, there are no transfer payments flowing from Germany to Spain. So the result is, recovery is so slow it's basically nonexistent. Spain is 8 years into what we could call a depression in this country with no hope in sight. Italy's a little better off but still suffering from economic conditions that would be inconceivable here.
That is the biggest core problem with the EU. There's no bad guy -- it's just an unfortunate thing that was not adequately planned for.
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This will effect us in the US, but not nearly as much as it will effect the people of the UK, specifically the young people.
Don't take it from me. Google yourself up some real nonpartisan analysis. It is already available.
I am hearing that people in the UK are waking up this morning thinking: "What have I done? I did not actually think we would leave! It was a protest vote!"
I am hearing that young Britons are coming to terms with the fact that they will now be viewed as immigrants when trying to find jobs in 27 EU countries.
I am hearing that young people are saying this is an unwanted parting "gift" from old codgers in the UK to the young, seriously messing with those young futures.
Whatever happens next ain't gonna be pretty, no matter how many of you think it will. Anyway, that is what I am hearing. But, then again, I listen.
Don't take it from me. Google yourself up some real nonpartisan analysis. It is already available.
I am hearing that people in the UK are waking up this morning thinking: "What have I done? I did not actually think we would leave! It was a protest vote!"
I am hearing that young Britons are coming to terms with the fact that they will now be viewed as immigrants when trying to find jobs in 27 EU countries.
I am hearing that young people are saying this is an unwanted parting "gift" from old codgers in the UK to the young, seriously messing with those young futures.
Whatever happens next ain't gonna be pretty, no matter how many of you think it will. Anyway, that is what I am hearing. But, then again, I listen.
The French are unhappy with the EU. The Italians and Spanish and Greeks are VERY unhappy with the EU. Even the Germans are not thrilled.
And that might be what's spooking the financial markets -- it's not about Britain, it's whether the EU itself has any future as it currently exists.
I am not sure you even read my reply. I was speaking about the SENATE, which was NOT popularly elected in the original constitution, and why the Founding Fathers chose that route. It had little to do with distances and/or education levels. Even there, I'd not be surprised if the average citizen of 1800 was not equally literate as the citizen of 2016.
I'll quote Franklin here "You have a Republic. If you can keep it."
I also believe the "bread and circuses" argument is germane here.
"Pure" democracy is very reactive and usually not reflective. That can lead to dangerous imbalances. Like my earlier example of the French Revolution and the first French Republic, which collapsed under it's own weight.
Everything you just said is one of the main reasons the 10% of people who were undecideds last week broke for Brexit. You decry right wing fear mongering in the US but now you can't get enough of it because this didn't go your way. Frexit is coming and then the dominoes fall. Short term pain, long term sovereignty. Many here have already pointed out the problems of a shared currency, it's why Britain didn't fully sign up in the first place.
And at the end of the day no culture wants to be told what to do by a foreign government and when given the chance to break free they often do. The sun will come up tomorrow, new deals will be negotiated and products will produced and sold.
IMHO, the EU has overstepped its bounds. As created, it was a great way to lessen the barriers associated with intra-europe travel and trade. They took it too far too fast. Now they are bailing out the PIGS and pissing off everyone else. I am hopeful that they will get back to the "knitting".
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anon_xdc8rmuek44eq
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Nor do Europeans see the Brits as Europeans. While immigration, open borders etc. have certainly inflamed matters, there's something more to this than EU political machinations. As a lifelong US citizen, I can't begin to understand the enmity between the UK and the continent. I've been on a business trip to Southern Europe the last 10 days and when the topic of Brexit arose, the overwhelming response from continental Europeans regardless of national origin was 'good riddance' or a less polite form of same.
Perhaps it's analogous to the relationship between PSU and the historic members of the conference. B1Grexit, anyone?
