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Fun With Numbers

Lion-around

Well-Known Member
Sep 26, 2012
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Took some time to compare our performance in 2014 with 2015; some interesting points:

1. If Mega and Zain had not RS'd and had similar results in 2015 as they did in 2014, the PSU total would have been 115. That score would have put Penn State right in the thick of things. If Mega had won the title, would that have been enough to take points away from both tOSU and Iowa (since both made it to the finals) and add additional points to Mega's total to win the tournament? Interesting?

2. The points show that the achilles heal for Penn State in 2015 were the four new faces (i.e., 141, 157, 165 and 184). I didn't include ZB in this list as he wrestled quite a bit of duels for Penn State last year. Of weight classes 125, 133, 149, 174, 197 and 285, Penn State scored 73.5 points in 2014 and 82.0 points in 2015; so the experienced wrestlers held their own. Of weight classes 141, 157, 165 and 184, Penn State scored 67.0 points in 2014 and 14.5 points in 2015 (and 12.5 of those points were by McCutcheon). Now granted 45.5 of those 2014 points were from Taylor and Ruth, but did we seriously expect a dropoff from 45.5 points to 13.5 points?

Zain would fix 141 (does he take an Olympic RS? - was that Diceman's cryptic comment regarding Moss), Nolf should fix 157, Rasheed could fix 165 and McCutcheon could get better at 184. Nickal should hopefully be a suitable replacement for Brown at 174 as Nevills should be better than Lawson/Gingrich at 285.

3. We'll clearly be more competitive with this lineup in 2016:

125 - Conaway/Nico
133 - Gulibon
141 - Zain
149 - Beitz
157 - Nolf/Joseph
165 - Rasheed/Nolf
174 - Nickal/Rasheed
184 - McCutcheon/Nickal
197 - McIntosh
285 - Nevills

Will it be enough to win it all - way too early to tell, but a potential Zain Olympic RS would definitely hurt.




This post was edited on 3/8 9:45 PM by Lion-around

This post was edited on 3/8 9:52 PM by Lion-around

This post was edited on 3/8 9:57 PM by Lion-around
 
Originally posted by Lion-around:
Took some time to compare our performance in 2014 with 2015; some interesting points:

1. If Mega and Zain had not RS'd and had similar results in 2015 as they did in 2014, the PSU total would have been 115. That score would have put Penn State right in the thick of things. If Mega had won the title, would that have been enough to take points away from both tOSU and Iowa (since both made it to the finals) and add additional points to Mega's total to win the tournament? Interesting?

2. The points show that the achilles heal for Penn State in 2015 were the four new faces (i.e., 141, 157, 165 and 184). I didn't include ZB in this list as he wrestled quite a bit of duels for Penn State last year. Of weight classes 125, 133, 149, 174, 197 and 285, Penn State scored 73.5 points in 2014 and 82.0 points in 2015; so the experienced wrestlers held their own. Of weight classes 141, 157, 165 and 184, Penn State scored 67.0 points in 2014 and 14.5 points in 2015 (and 12.5 of those points were by McCutcheon). Now granted 45.5 of those 2014 points were from Taylor and Ruth, but did we seriously expect a dropoff from 45.5 points to 13.5 points?

Zain would fix 141 (does he take an Olympic RS? - was that Diceman's cryptic comment regarding Moss), Nolf should fix 157, Rasheed could fix 165 and McCutcheon could get better at 184. Nickal should hopefully be a suitable replacement for Brown at 174 as Nevills should be better than Lawson/Gingrich at 285.

3. We'll clearly be more competitive with this lineup in 2016:

125 - Conaway/Nico
133 - Gulibon
141 - Zain
149 - Beitz
157 - Nolf/Joseph
165 - Rasheed/Nolf
174 - Nickal/Rasheed
184 - McCutcheon/Nickal
197 - McIntosh
285 - Nevills

Will it be enough to win it all - way too early to tell, but a potential Zain Olympic RS would definitely hurt.




This post was edited on 3/8 9:45 PM by Lion-around

This post was edited on 3/8 9:52 PM by Lion-around

This post was edited on 3/8 9:57 PM by Lion-around
Apparently you've missed the chatter that Retherford may have to go to 149 next year. Also, it may be tough for Cory Rasheed to make 165. In which case, you may see Moss at 141 and Hammonds at 165, though obviously a lot can happen in the next 8 months.

Also, does Retherford even qualify for an Olympic redshirt?
 
There has been quite a bit of speculation about Nico and an Olympic RS - not sure if he qualifies at this time (or even wants one); so ditto for Zain. I had seen some chatter reference Zain regarding both the Olympic RS or his weight. The Olympic RS seemed a more likely scenario to me at this time, so that is what I went with. Moss at 141 and Hammond at 165 in 2016 will be a challenge.
 
IF - big IF - Zain comes back at 149 next year, I'm assuming:

125 - Conaway
133 - Gulibon
141 - Moss
149 - Retherford
157 - Nolf
165 - Hammond/Shakur
174 - Nickal
184 - McCutcheon
197 - McIntosh
285 - Nevills

Honestly, it would look a lot better with JC at 125, Nico at 133 (where I think he can win it) and Gulibon at 141.
 
IF, big IF, Zain goes to 149, Zach is still listed on the roster as 141; has that ship sailed?
 
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