It struck me that while unlikely, it is conceivable you could have 9 champs this year from 2 teams. Makes me wonder what the lowest team point total to take third place ever was....
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- Thread starter Aardvark86
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Yep. 9 champs between PSU and tOSU is certainly possible. 10 could even happen but a very long shot. I think Nick Lee has a small chance of winning a national championship this year. I am not sure that NATO can take 125 though. Between the jersey shores cruise liner and Spencer Lee I don't think NATO gets it done in March.
Nobody is beating Gross at 133 and 141 is a battle between Meredith, Jack, Eierman, Diakomihalis, and Heil.
Agree that a max of 8 is coming from just 2 teams, with 133 and 141 going to others. Chances are at least 2 other weights go to others, as well . . . with 125, 165, 174, 184, and maybe 197 being tightly contested.
Given past history and how things have shaped up this season thus far, the only perceived "locks" are 149, 157, and 285. IMO.
EDIT: Scratch my comment on 184 . . . it is highly probably the champ is PSU or tOSU.
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I think the over/under should be 7 champs between the the two schools. A very dominate two teams. PSU wins in a close one.
In answer to the OP question:
Since 2009, the lowest 3rd placing at nationals was 75 points. That said, there is no correlation between the point totals of the top two teams and what 3rd place does. In some years, four teams can get over 100 points. In other years, no one can get to 100 points. It just depends on the distribution of talent across the board. Some years it's diffuse, and in other years it is centralized among a certain number of teams. The severe "dropoff" from the next higher placed team may occur anywhere from 2nd place to 5th or 6th place.
Since 2009, the lowest 3rd placing at nationals was 75 points. That said, there is no correlation between the point totals of the top two teams and what 3rd place does. In some years, four teams can get over 100 points. In other years, no one can get to 100 points. It just depends on the distribution of talent across the board. Some years it's diffuse, and in other years it is centralized among a certain number of teams. The severe "dropoff" from the next higher placed team may occur anywhere from 2nd place to 5th or 6th place.
If I were to pick right now, I actually think OSU will only end up with two finalists. PSU will get no fewer than three. I’d say four or five; depending quite a lot on 174’s seeding.
(Last year was so amazing for PSU that it's hard to think they'll even duplicate it, but you never know)
125: I actually think it will come down to Cruz vs. Suriano. After last year, you have to love Cruz in close matches.
133: Gross
141: Entertaining weight class. I’ll go with Meredith. Just hope Heil doesn't win.
149: PSU
157: PSU
165: Tentatively PSU, but IMar is still IMar - very dangerous
174: Depends quite a lot on seeding. Valencia has looked even better this year, and I feel like a homer picking against him.
184: By season’s end, I think the best two wrestlers in this class will be Nickal and Abounader, rather than Nickal and Martin
197: Doesn’t look like anyone can stop Moore. (Willie Miklus is my pick for his final opponent)
285: Ohio State all the way, obviously
(Last year was so amazing for PSU that it's hard to think they'll even duplicate it, but you never know)
125: I actually think it will come down to Cruz vs. Suriano. After last year, you have to love Cruz in close matches.
133: Gross
141: Entertaining weight class. I’ll go with Meredith. Just hope Heil doesn't win.
149: PSU
157: PSU
165: Tentatively PSU, but IMar is still IMar - very dangerous
174: Depends quite a lot on seeding. Valencia has looked even better this year, and I feel like a homer picking against him.
184: By season’s end, I think the best two wrestlers in this class will be Nickal and Abounader, rather than Nickal and Martin
197: Doesn’t look like anyone can stop Moore. (Willie Miklus is my pick for his final opponent)
285: Ohio State all the way, obviously
I agree that Moore is beatable but he has to be the favorite unless he takes an unexpected loss in between now and then.
I hope that Sheed gets to wrestle Cash and Moore and is not still splitting time with Cassar at that point. I think Shak has as good a shot to make the finals as anyone at this weight and would be good for him to get experience and a feel for them before the tournaments start. I like Weigel for the finals if Shak doesn't make it but could see it being a number of guys at that weight. Not as competitive as 25 or 41 but will still be fun to see who makes the finals.
Can't wait til March.
I also agree that Moore is beatable, but by who? Heck, Moore pinned Haught earlier this year, and Haught is #2. #3 is Weigel, who's not gangbusters on his feet by any means. There's nobody in that weight class who stands out as probably being able to equal Moore's offense in neutral.
Except, perhaps, for Rasheed......nobody seems to have enough offense. On paper, that is. In practice, you never know. Heck, Wilcke was within a takedown with a minute left, till Moore's offensive prowess came through.
Except, perhaps, for Rasheed......nobody seems to have enough offense. On paper, that is. In practice, you never know. Heck, Wilcke was within a takedown with a minute left, till Moore's offensive prowess came through.
I guess I took your comment to be that Moore is lighting it up against all comers, and that just isn't the case. His record this year, while 16-0, shows chinks in the armor. JMO.
https://www.wrestlestat.com/wrestler/39638/moore-kollin/profile
Common opponents last year and this year:
Wrestler________ 2017 result____ 2018 result
Cash Wilcke_____19-7; 10-5______ 6-3
Jared Haught____ Fall___________ Fall
Tanner Orndorff__ 20-5 __________15-11
Ben Honis______ 20-9 __________ 5-3
To me, the differences among the common opponents the last two years show a trend. In addition, there are other wins he's had this year that were eyebrow raisers to me. Doesn't mean he won't win, but his performance this year is less than his performance last year to-date.
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The thing is, favorites lose every year...at a high rate too. Just using 10 years of data, and the seeds of the wrestlers that became Champions...
-- Only 52% of #1 Seeds won individual championships
-- 75% of #1 or #2 Seeds won an individual championship (or 23% of #2 Seeds won)
-- 9% were seeded 5th or beyond, which consisted of two #5 Seeds, two #6 Seeds, one #8 Seed, and one each of wrestlers seeded outside the top-8, as #9, #11, #12, and #13 Seeds
-- Only 52% of #1 Seeds won individual championships
-- 75% of #1 or #2 Seeds won an individual championship (or 23% of #2 Seeds won)
-- 9% were seeded 5th or beyond, which consisted of two #5 Seeds, two #6 Seeds, one #8 Seed, and one each of wrestlers seeded outside the top-8, as #9, #11, #12, and #13 Seeds
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