SEC bloodbath

[mcpat]

I don’t see a scenario where we’re #5.

Assuming we don’t play in the conference championship game, we’re behind at least the loser of it.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and lose to Oregon, we’re again behind Ohio State.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and beat Oregon, we’re the 1-seed in all likelihood.

 

[LandoComando]

I don’t see a scenario where we’re #5.

Assuming we don’t play in the conference championship game, we’re behind at least the loser of it.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and lose to Oregon, we’re again behind Ohio State.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and beat Oregon, we’re the 1-seed in all likelihood.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan (they won't) and we play a strong game (within a score late) against Oregon we'd be 5 IMO

 

[Obliviax]

How do you drop PSU from 4 to 6?

ND doesn't play in a CCG game and everyone good below PSU is losing games more or less.

6th in seeding. The conference champs go 1 2 3 4. Then the non champs. TOSU or Oregon are 5 and we are six.

 

[doctornick]

I don’t see a scenario where we’re #5.

Assuming we don’t play in the conference championship game, we’re behind at least the loser of it.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and lose to Oregon, we’re again behind Ohio State.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan and we make the conference championship game and beat Oregon, we’re the 1-seed in all likelihood.

Oregon loses to Washington then loses to tOSU in the CCG. Texas wins the SECC. We end up #5 seed.

 

[Agoodnap]

I guess 5 is the ceiling. I forgot about the conference champions being seeds 1-4. Kind of a bullshit rule, but those are the rules now.

It's not a BS rule. IMO, it's the only rule that makes sense, as everything else is just an "eye-test".

 

[Jerry]

Oh dear, even Finebaum has chucked it in. From his commentary yesterday:

>>I think what you’re going to hear from the vox populi is we better not get a three-loss SEC team. The only way I could advocate that is if it’s Georgia in the championship game, it’s a very tight game, and they lose. Then I think what the committee does is they just check the box with the best league in football saying, ‘You earned the right in there and whatever.'

Beyond that? I mean, I apologize. For those who are interested, I’m not going to stand up and advocate for Ole Miss and Alabama. Would you?

Now, listen, if we had a debate, if we’re sitting there trying to decide Alabama, Ole Miss, Indiana, and Penn State? That’s a different story but we’re not being asked because we would never get on that committee.<<

So to translate from Finebaumese:

The SEC is the best league and Alabama and Ole Miss are better teams than Indiana and Penn State, but the reality is that after last Saturday nobody can any longer make a rational case for ranking Alabama and Ole Miss higher than Indiana and Penn State so the SEC's best shot for a 3-loss team making the cut would be if Georgia were to lose a close game to Texas in the league's CCG because after all the SEC is the best conference and Georgia would deserve the bid on that basis but sorry Alabama and Ole Miss, you blew it, even though the SEC is the best conference.

 

[doctornick]

At some point the results on the field kinda suggest how good a team is... when you lose to mediocre teams like Vanderbilt, Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc al - especially if you lose two such games - then that reflects how good you really are. People able to defeat a top notch team one week but have an absolute clunker the next doesn't speak to being elite - it suggests that you are very inconsistent and probably are not a team that should be contending for a playoff spot.

 

[LandoComando]

Oh dear, even Finebaum has chucked it in. From his commentary yesterday:

>>I think what you’re going to hear from the vox populi is we better not get a three-loss SEC team. The only way I could advocate that is if it’s Georgia in the championship game, it’s a very tight game, and they lose. Then I think what the committee does is they just check the box with the best league in football saying, ‘You earned the right in there and whatever.'

Beyond that? I mean, I apologize. For those who are interested, I’m not going to stand up and advocate for Ole Miss and Alabama. Would you?

Now, listen, if we had a debate, if we’re sitting there trying to decide Alabama, Ole Miss, Indiana, and Penn State? That’s a different story but we’re not being asked because we would never get on that committee.<<

So to translate from Finebaumese:

The SEC is the best league and Alabama and Ole Miss are better teams than Indiana and Penn State, but the reality is that after last Saturday nobody can any longer make a rational case for ranking Alabama and Ole Miss higher than Indiana and Penn State so the SEC's best shot for a 3-loss team making the cut would be if Georgia were to lose a close game to Texas in the league's CCG because after all the SEC is the best conference and Georgia would deserve the bid on that basis but sorry Alabama and Ole Miss, you blew it, even though the SEC is the best conference.

Are we mad about this? That's all fair

 

[Jerry]

Are we mad about this? That's all fair

Mad? Hell no. I'm amused.

 

[91Joe95]

Eh...he said that matchup was posited by Heather Dinich - that's all I needed to hear

Somewhere psuplaybook's Tom just shed a tear.

 

[WP76]

OU fan here. Couple of thoughts from my perspective. OU's defense and special teams are stout by any standard. OU's offense has sucked--11 different o-line combinations (eight of top ten o-linemen have missed at least six games), top five WRs out, inconsistent (read bad) QB play, and firing a clueless OC after eight games. As a result, defense has defended more plays than any P5 team. Even after all that, both of OU's lines pushed Bama all over the field on Saturday night.

As to the SEC transition, when we were in the Big 12, I didn't buy the SEC hype. Seeing it now first hand, you will get beat by any SEC team (even Vandy or Kentucky, not sure MSU can beat anyone and Arkansas is spotty) if you don't bring your "A" game. We could win some games in the Big 12 with a "B" effort but can't do that anymore. All that said, even in our worst year in a quarter century, we've beaten two ranked teams--something not everyone can say.

Peace, out.

 

[LandoComando]

Mad? Hell no. I'm amused.

What amusing? It was actually fair

 

[Jerry]

What amusing? It was actually fair

Yes, it was "fair," more or less.

I find Finebaum having to face reality an amusing spectacle.

 

[LandoComando]

Yes, it was "fair," more or less.

I find Finebaum having to face reality an amusing spectacle.

Okay...fair enough
We'll see how people react if Bama gets in lol

 

[AWS1022]

At some point the results on the field kinda suggest how good a team is... when you lose to mediocre teams like Vanderbilt, Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc al - especially if you lose two such games - then that reflects how good you really are. People able to defeat a top notch team one week but have an absolute clunker the next doesn't speak to being elite - it suggests that you are very inconsistent and probably are not a team that should be contending for a playoff spot.

And every team Bama and Georgia lose to is a team that has less talent, so they’re all bad losses for those two teams. So three bad losses for a Georgia should eliminate them regardless if the third loss came in the CCG.

 

[AWS1022]

OU fan here. Couple of thoughts from my perspective. OU's defense and special teams are stout by any standard. OU's offense has sucked--11 different o-line combinations (eight of top ten o-linemen have missed at least six games), top five WRs out, inconsistent (read bad) QB play, and firing a clueless OC after eight games. As a result, defense has defended more plays than any P5 team. Even after all that, both of OU's lines pushed Bama all over the field on Saturday night.

As to the SEC transition, when we were in the Big 12, I didn't buy the SEC hype. Seeing it now first hand, you will get beat by any SEC team (even Vandy or Kentucky, not sure MSU can beat anyone and Arkansas is spotty) if you don't bring your "A" game. We could win some games in the Big 12 with a "B" effort but can't do that anymore. All that said, even in our worst year in a quarter century, we've beaten two ranked teams--something not everyone can say.

Peace, out.

Same could be said about the Big 10 outside of a few teams, that’s the thing about good conferences. If you’re not in the conference then a game against a team like Minnesota sounds like it should be easy, but it’s not.

 

[SheldonJoe2215]

It's not a BS rule. IMO, it's the only rule that makes sense, as everything else is just an "eye-test".

So you think that if Oregon loses a close one to OSU, then they should be dropped below Boise St?

Or that Boise St, after beating mighty UNLV in their CCG, should jump 7 spots and be ranked ahead PSU, ND, Georgia, Miami, Tennessee, etc.?

 

[AWS1022]

So you think that if Oregon loses a close one to OSU, then they should be dropped below Boise St?

Or that Boise St, after beating mighty UNLV in their CCG, should jump 7 spots and be ranked ahead PSU, ND, Georgia, Miami, Tennessee, etc.?

This is exactly why G5 teams shouldn’t get in at all.

 

[lowhandicapper]

When the B1G beats up on itself and blows out Kent State & Elon, the conference is weak and they didn't play anyone.
When the SEC beats up on itself and blows out Florida A&M & Wafford, the conference is deep and they need the cupcake thrown in for reprieve from the difficult schedule.
Interesting how narratives can be defined so differently. Welcome to the world where one media base is critical of their teams, while the other media base are cheerleaders for their teams.
Say it enough and they'll believe it.

 

[Agoodnap]

So you think that if Oregon loses a close one to OSU, then they should be dropped below Boise St?

Or that Boise St, after beating mighty UNLV in their CCG, should jump 7 spots and be ranked ahead PSU, ND, Georgia, Miami, Tennessee, etc.?

I see you like using the "eye-test" for seeding. I prefer a predetermined set of rules. Unfortunately, the rules we have still rely on "voting" but they are the best we have at this point. In most years, I would expect that the four P4 champions would be given the bye's, but that isn't part of the rule. I'd much prefer a sixteen team playoff, with 8 conference champions being seeded 1–8, and the 2nd place conference teams being seeded 8–9, but I'll have to wait for that to happen some day.

 

[Lion_Backer]

When the B1G beats up on itself and blows out Kent State & Elon, the conference is weak and they didn't play anyone.
When the SEC beats up on itself and blows out Florida A&M & Wafford, the conference is deep and they need the cupcake thrown in for reprieve from the difficult schedule.
Interesting how narratives can be defined so differently. Welcome to the world where one media base is critical of their teams, while the other media base are cheerleaders for their teams.
Say it enough and they'll believe it.

I don't disagree with anything that you stated in your post but.....

....if you research who was the College Football National Champion over the past 20 years, you will find that 14 of those champions came from one conference. The SEC.

I know that the system has been somewhat convoluted in determining who has earned the right to participate in the process. But those are the official results and they affect how people formulate their opinions.

There is a remedy, and it begins this playoff season.

 

[LandoComando]

I see you like using the "eye-test" for seeding. I prefer a predetermined set of rules. Unfortunately, the rules we have still rely on "voting" but they are the best we have at this point. In most years, I would expect that the four P4 champions would be given the bye's, but that isn't part of the rule. I'd much prefer a sixteen team playoff, with 8 conference champions being seeded 1–8, and the 2nd place conference teams being seeded 8–9, but I'll have to wait for that to happen some day.

That will never happen because it's completely illogical. This requires one to believe all conferences are even. They aren't. That's not an eye test. That's reality.

 

[lowhandicapper]

I don't disagree with anything that you stated in your post but.....

....if you research who was the College Football National Champion over the past 20 years, you will find that 14 of those champions came from one conference. The SEC.

I know that the system has been somewhat convoluted in determining who has earned the right to participate in the process. But those are the official results and they affect how people formulate their opinions.

There is a remedy, and it begins this playoff season.

I knew somebody would go there.

Well the SEC has been represented in the championship game (over other teams with the same record) all but 3 times in those 20 years. So all but 3 times in the last 20 years they've had a minimum a 50% chance to with the title....Mainly controlled by narrative and optics prior to the playoff.
Additionally, 3 of those 20 times, they played themselves, so they had a 100% chance to win the championship.

As I said, when the SEC is down, its because its so deep, when an SEC team is dominant in the conference it's because they're the greatest team ever, not the fact that the rest of the conference isn't great.
People blah, blah, blah, the SEC about how many NFL players they have and whatnot, well, look outside of LSU, Georgia & Bama and you'll find the rest produce at a regular or below average rate. It's a top heavy conference, that is given more respect than it deserves because they build up these two or three matchups a year.
If the the B1G had produced more top quality games between their big 3 it wouldn't be much different, however the B1G has failed in that regard because of their inter-division bullshit that pitted the top 3 against each other in season. Let's face it OSU/Michigan hasn't been all that competitive the last 20 years, one team has dominated the other and you can say the same about throwing PSU in that mix. That doesn't help the conference. It changes sentiment, especially for all the all-knowing media, who was literally determining who plays for the title for the vast majority of the life of college football.

 

[Lion_Backer]

I knew somebody would go there.

Well the SEC has been represented in the championship game (over other teams with the same record) all but 3 times in those 20 years. So all but 3 times in the last 20 years they've had a minimum a 50% chance to with the title....Mainly controlled by narrative and optics prior to the playoff.
Additionally, 3 of those 20 times, they played themselves, so they had a 100% chance to win the championship.

As I said, when the SEC is down, its because its so deep, when an SEC team is dominant in the conference it's because they're the greatest team ever, not the fact that the rest of the conference isn't great.
People blah, blah, blah, the SEC about how many NFL players they have and whatnot, well, look outside of LSU, Georgia & Bama and you'll find the rest produce at a regular or below average rate. It's a top heavy conference, that is given more respect than it deserves because they build up these two or three matchups a year.
If the the B1G had produced more top quality games between their big 3 it wouldn't be much different, however the B1G has failed in that regard because of their inter-division bullshit that pitted the top 3 against each other in season. Let's face it OSU/Michigan hasn't been all that competitive the last 20 years, one team has dominated the other and you can say the same about throwing PSU in that mix. That doesn't help the conference. It changes sentiment, especially for all the all-knowing media, who was literally determining who plays for the title for the vast majority of the life of college football.

You're debating with someone who definitely has empathy for your perspective.

If the team that emerged from our division in the B1G would have had better results in the tournament.

So far Ryan Day has proven to be very Marv Levy like once OSU has qualified for the CFP.

And while I cry no crocodile tears for our fellow B1G members that have fallen short in the CFP, it has hurt the perception of our conference.

We are now going to have the opportunity to participate in this championship playoff invitational and change that perception.

 

[Cowbell Man]

If Ohio State loses to Michigan (they won't) and we play a strong game (within a score late) against Oregon we'd be 5 IMO

Can’t see it. I that scenario we are both 2 losses. OSU owns H2H regardless. We can’t be a 5 in my opinion.

I also think we can’t be a 4. If we beat Oregon in the CCG with a loss to OSU, we will be ahead of Boise and ACC team.

I think we don’t have a range for seeding, I think it’s pretty specific spots. We are 2 or 6 with a win vs Indiana Sat. 2 of course bd depends on OSU losing to Mich.

We will have a ranked win vs Illinois and ND while beating TAMU has that ugly loss to NI. Cant see them jumping us by beating a team we beat on the road.

 

[LandoComando]

Can’t see it. I that scenario we are both 2 losses. OSU owns H2H regardless. We can’t be a 5 in my opinion.

I also think we can’t be a 4. If we beat Oregon in the CCG with a loss to OSU, we will be ahead of Boise and ACC team.

I think we don’t have a range for seeding, I think it’s pretty specific spots. We are 2 or 6 with a win vs Indiana Sat. 2 of course bd depends on OSU losing to Mich.

We will have a ranked win vs Illinois and ND while beating TAMU has that ugly loss to NI. Cant see them jumping us by beating a team we beat on the road.

I think you're putting too much weight on H2H
I think we're easily 1 if we beat Oregon and Georgia wins IMO--Texas/Penn State could go either way
I hope you're right about ND--I'm concerned how the voters will see us vs ND if they kill USC on the road. I think we should be higher--doesn't mean we will be

 

[Cowbell Man]

I think you're putting too much weight on H2H
I think we're easily 1 if we beat Oregon and Georgia wins IMO--Texas/Penn State could go either way
I hope you're right about ND--I'm concerned how the voters will see us vs ND if they kill USC on the road. I think we should be higher--doesn't mean we will be

Hard to imagine any other more important weight than H2H with equal records. And we lost at home in this particular case.

Good point. Beat Oregon and we should be seeded 1.

ND…..would be a stupid argument to compare the quality of the win while ignoring losing to Northern Illinois. I get it tho….there are some people who apparently would.

 

[LandoComando]

Hard to imagine any other more important weight than H2H with equal records. And we lost at home in this particular case.

Good point. Beat Oregon and we should be seeded 1.

ND…..would be a stupid argument to compare the quality of the win while ignoring losing to Northern Illinois. I get it tho….there are some people who apparently would.

Records aren't even. We'd have 11 wins. They have 10 with a horrible loss.
We agree on ND. I just think the consensus is they're playing better than us now and will use that. I think that's how Georgia jumps Miami too. GT

 

[Cowbell Man]

Records aren't even. We'd have 11 wins. They have 10 with a horrible loss.
We agree on ND. I just think the consensus is they're playing better than us now and will use that. I think that's how Georgia jumps Miami too. GT

Michigan won’t be considered a horrible loss and when it comes to seeding the committee will def be comparing us to them. Two one loss teams. Ours…..to them.

 

[LandoComando]

Michigan won’t be considered a horrible loss and when it comes to seeding the committee will def be comparing us to them. Two one loss teams. Ours…..to them.

Okay we disagree on how Michigan would be viewed which is fine. Either of us could be right.

Two 2-loss teams is when we could get it. Not as 1 loss.

We'd have losses to two top 8 teams. They'd have to #1 and unranked Michigan. They do have better wins obviously but I don't see them punishing us for the CCG against #1

 

[Cowbell Man]

Okay we disagree on how Michigan would be viewed which is fine. Either of us could be right.

Two 2-loss teams is when we could get it. Not as 1 loss.

We'd have losses to two top 8 teams. They'd have to #1 and unranked Michigan. They do have better wins obviously but I don't see them punishing us for the CCG against #1

Brain fart. Yes both with two losses. I’ve done tournament seeding. Lots of them and nothing should trump H2H with the same basic record. And committees I’ve been in view the same way.

 

[LandoComando]

Brain fart. Yes both with two losses. I’ve done tournament seeding. Lots of them and nothing should trump H2H with the same basic record. And committees I’ve been in view the same way.

I think it's important talking point but not everything. It was a one score game. They win by 30 then I'd agree. Well learn a lot on the next couple weeks about the committee for the future.