The only way Penn State wins this game is if they do the following on offense and defense.
On offense Penn State needs to start out fast like Colorado did in its game with Michigan in the "Big House". I'm not saying that Penn State has to score 21 points in the first quarter like Colorado did last Saturday, but Trace McSorley and Penn State's offense will definitely have to have success throwing the football early in the game in its first couple of offensive possessions in the first quarter of the game.
That's because Michigan's No. 1 objective on defense will be to have at least eight players within seven yards of the line of scrimmage to make sure Saquon Barkley isn't fast out of the gate running with the football. They will want to force Penn State early in the game to throw the football to have any success on offense.
Michigan is counting on the assumption that Penn State's offensive line still has not jelled indicated by the fact Penn State's running game ranks 12th in the Big Ten averaging just 111.7 YPG, with Barkley averaging just 5.1 YPC even with a 55-yard TD run against Temple. Michigan will also want to test the waters to find out if Barkley enters the game at 100-percent following his first quarter ankle injury this past Saturday against Temple. Don't be surprised to see Michigan run blitz and be extremely aggressive trying to get penetration when Penn State attempts to run with the football.
You can also expect Michigan to blitz a lot when Penn State attempts to throw the football. Michigan in its first three games this season has 11 sacks for 87 yards. OLB/SS Jabrill Peppers, WLB Mike McCray and Fr. DE Rashan Gary lead the Michigan defense with 2.5 sacks apiece for a total of 67 yards. How Penn State handles Peppers when the Wolverines decide to blitz will be a critical factor in this game.
Also, one of the more interesting matchups for Penn State's offense will be the battle between Penn State LT Brendan Mahon and Gary. Michigan's No.1 goal on defense will be to make Penn State one-dimensional on offense unable to run the ball effectively by bottling up Barkley at the line of scrimmage before he's able to get to the second level and make himself one-on-one with Michigan's LBs.
If Penn State can find a way to have Barkley have some success running with the football, I think Michigan's pass defense is susceptible to a ball control style of passing attack. Colorado had excellent success doing that in the first quarter when the Buffaloes put 21 points on the scoreboard. That ability then allowed Colorado to have success throwing the ball deep between the hash marks for completions of 37 and 50 yards in the first quarter.
Defensively, Penn State has to shut down Michigan's rushing attack early in the game, especially on first down. Michigan is averaging 197.7 YPG running the football, but that ranks them just 9th in the Big Ten. Most of the Wolverines' success running the football has come outside the tackle box with Fr. Chris Evans and Sr. De'Veon Smith.
Evans is Michigan's leading rusher with 157 yards on 21 carries [7.5 YPC] with Smith rushing for 152 yards on 27 carries [5.6 YPC]. Evans and Smith like to run counters off tackle, that is where the Wolverines have had their most success rushing the football.
Michigan has struggled running the football between the tackles. Smith and Sr. Ty Issac have averaged just 3.1 YPC running between the tackles. Penn State defense will also have to be on alert for the "jet" sweep. Coach Harbaugh like to run the "jet" sweep with Sr. WR Jehu Chesson and Fr. WR Eddie McDoom [yes that is his real name].
It's important that Penn State's defense controls the Wolverines' rushing attack because Michigan's passing game is totally based on the play-action pass. The Wolverines Jr. QB Wilton Speight has just like McSorley played beyond everyone's expectations. He's completed 63.8- percent of his passes for 686 yards with 8 TD passes and just one interception.
The Wolverines have the No.1 starting group of receivers in the Big Ten in Sr. TE Jake Butt, Sr. WR Jehu Chesson and Sr. WR Amara Darboh. Butt is the Wolverines' top receiver with 15 catches for 192 yards with three TD catches and he is without question Speight's go-to receiver in third down situations. Speight loves to throw the football to either Butt or Darboh in the red zone. Between them Butt and Darboh have 7 TD catches.
There is no doubt about it. For Penn State to have any chance of upsetting Michigan in the Big House, Penn State must take away the Wolverines ability to run consistently with the football and make the Wolverines one-dimensional on offense and force them to throw the football when they don't want too with their play-action passing attack.
Last but not least, Penn State can not have the type of turnovers it had during its first three games of the season.
With Nyeem Wartman-White, Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda most likely out of the lineup at linebacker for Penn State, that is going to be extremely hard for Penn State's defense to accomplish.
I hate to say this, I expect Michigan to win this game, but I think Penn State's offense will surprise and put some points on the scoreboard. Michigan won't score its average of 53 points per game, but expect the score to be something like 35-21.
Sorry, I had to make that prediction.
On offense Penn State needs to start out fast like Colorado did in its game with Michigan in the "Big House". I'm not saying that Penn State has to score 21 points in the first quarter like Colorado did last Saturday, but Trace McSorley and Penn State's offense will definitely have to have success throwing the football early in the game in its first couple of offensive possessions in the first quarter of the game.
That's because Michigan's No. 1 objective on defense will be to have at least eight players within seven yards of the line of scrimmage to make sure Saquon Barkley isn't fast out of the gate running with the football. They will want to force Penn State early in the game to throw the football to have any success on offense.
Michigan is counting on the assumption that Penn State's offensive line still has not jelled indicated by the fact Penn State's running game ranks 12th in the Big Ten averaging just 111.7 YPG, with Barkley averaging just 5.1 YPC even with a 55-yard TD run against Temple. Michigan will also want to test the waters to find out if Barkley enters the game at 100-percent following his first quarter ankle injury this past Saturday against Temple. Don't be surprised to see Michigan run blitz and be extremely aggressive trying to get penetration when Penn State attempts to run with the football.
You can also expect Michigan to blitz a lot when Penn State attempts to throw the football. Michigan in its first three games this season has 11 sacks for 87 yards. OLB/SS Jabrill Peppers, WLB Mike McCray and Fr. DE Rashan Gary lead the Michigan defense with 2.5 sacks apiece for a total of 67 yards. How Penn State handles Peppers when the Wolverines decide to blitz will be a critical factor in this game.
Also, one of the more interesting matchups for Penn State's offense will be the battle between Penn State LT Brendan Mahon and Gary. Michigan's No.1 goal on defense will be to make Penn State one-dimensional on offense unable to run the ball effectively by bottling up Barkley at the line of scrimmage before he's able to get to the second level and make himself one-on-one with Michigan's LBs.
If Penn State can find a way to have Barkley have some success running with the football, I think Michigan's pass defense is susceptible to a ball control style of passing attack. Colorado had excellent success doing that in the first quarter when the Buffaloes put 21 points on the scoreboard. That ability then allowed Colorado to have success throwing the ball deep between the hash marks for completions of 37 and 50 yards in the first quarter.
Defensively, Penn State has to shut down Michigan's rushing attack early in the game, especially on first down. Michigan is averaging 197.7 YPG running the football, but that ranks them just 9th in the Big Ten. Most of the Wolverines' success running the football has come outside the tackle box with Fr. Chris Evans and Sr. De'Veon Smith.
Evans is Michigan's leading rusher with 157 yards on 21 carries [7.5 YPC] with Smith rushing for 152 yards on 27 carries [5.6 YPC]. Evans and Smith like to run counters off tackle, that is where the Wolverines have had their most success rushing the football.
Michigan has struggled running the football between the tackles. Smith and Sr. Ty Issac have averaged just 3.1 YPC running between the tackles. Penn State defense will also have to be on alert for the "jet" sweep. Coach Harbaugh like to run the "jet" sweep with Sr. WR Jehu Chesson and Fr. WR Eddie McDoom [yes that is his real name].
It's important that Penn State's defense controls the Wolverines' rushing attack because Michigan's passing game is totally based on the play-action pass. The Wolverines Jr. QB Wilton Speight has just like McSorley played beyond everyone's expectations. He's completed 63.8- percent of his passes for 686 yards with 8 TD passes and just one interception.
The Wolverines have the No.1 starting group of receivers in the Big Ten in Sr. TE Jake Butt, Sr. WR Jehu Chesson and Sr. WR Amara Darboh. Butt is the Wolverines' top receiver with 15 catches for 192 yards with three TD catches and he is without question Speight's go-to receiver in third down situations. Speight loves to throw the football to either Butt or Darboh in the red zone. Between them Butt and Darboh have 7 TD catches.
There is no doubt about it. For Penn State to have any chance of upsetting Michigan in the Big House, Penn State must take away the Wolverines ability to run consistently with the football and make the Wolverines one-dimensional on offense and force them to throw the football when they don't want too with their play-action passing attack.
Last but not least, Penn State can not have the type of turnovers it had during its first three games of the season.
With Nyeem Wartman-White, Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda most likely out of the lineup at linebacker for Penn State, that is going to be extremely hard for Penn State's defense to accomplish.
I hate to say this, I expect Michigan to win this game, but I think Penn State's offense will surprise and put some points on the scoreboard. Michigan won't score its average of 53 points per game, but expect the score to be something like 35-21.
Sorry, I had to make that prediction.
