In defense of Rahne

[canuckhal]

Some time around 9:30 or on Saturday night, when Penn State entered the locker room trailing Buffalo 10-7, offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne was about to be tried for war crimes by a large angry twitter mob.

The rest is history, as the Nittany Lions scored 38 second-half points and trounced Buffalo 45-13, but the ire still remained.

Now, Rahne has certainly had his fair share of troubles in his time as Penn State’s offensive coordinator. But on Saturday I actually felt like he called a pretty good game.

I’d like to start by addressing a couple of issues that I don’t think are valid criticisms by fans.

Firstly, Buffalo controlled the ball for 42:32 on Saturday night. That’s more than two-thirds of a 60-minute game. They also ran nearly double the amount of offensive plays (90 to 46). Now, you may ask why Penn State didn’t control the ball more, but the Nittany had far more explosive plays than the Bulls.

The explosive plays counter is something that dates back to Joe Moorhead days. Moorhead notoriously stated that he doesn’t care about time of possession or plays run because his offense is predicated on big plays. The same can be said of Rahne’s offense on Saturday night and for most of his tenure.

Secondly, the complaints about the running game are mostly out of his hands. It’s very difficult to have consistent offensive success when you’re one dimensional, and even more difficult when you struggle to run block and pass block. Something Penn State has dealt with for much of the last year. Penn State averaged 7.8 yards per play against Buffalo, but just 3.3 yards per rush. Some of that falls at the feet of the offensive line, some of that falls at the feet of Matt Limegrover, but some of that also falls at the feet of quarterback Sean Clifford.

While Clifford has been very good in his first two starts, one area he needs to improve is his reads in the run game. In week one, he opted to keep on a play inside the 10 that would’ve been a walk-in touchdown for Ricky Slade. Instead he lost two yards. There were a number of instances against both Idaho and Buffalo where Clifford made the incorrect read on a run that could’ve been a big play. On the play below, he keeps for no gain on a play where Journey Brown could’ve had a big play.

If you recall correctly, it took Trace McSorley about a half of a season before he really began to understand his keys in the run game and become a weapon with his legs. There’s no reason to believe Clifford can’t get there, but until he does the run game will struggle to fire on all cylinders.

Again, Rahne is not without his troubles, but through two games the Nittany Lions have scored 124 points. Say all you want about the level of competition, but that’s impressive against anybody. Maybe the Penn State offense will struggle throughout the rest of the season. Maybe it won’t. But maybe we should give it some time before determining Rahne’s efficacy one way or the other.

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...sive-coordinator-sean-clifford-offensive-line

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Some time around 9:30 or on Saturday night, when Penn State entered the locker room trailing Buffalo 10-7, offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne was about to be tried for war crimes by a large angry twitter mob.

The rest is history, as the Nittany Lions scored 38 second-half points and trounced Buffalo 45-13, but the ire still remained.

Now, Rahne has certainly had his fair share of troubles in his time as Penn State’s offensive coordinator. But on Saturday I actually felt like he called a pretty good game.

I’d like to start by addressing a couple of issues that I don’t think are valid criticisms by fans.

Firstly, Buffalo controlled the ball for 42:32 on Saturday night. That’s more than two-thirds of a 60-minute game. They also ran nearly double the amount of offensive plays (90 to 46). Now, you may ask why Penn State didn’t control the ball more, but the Nittany had far more explosive plays than the Bulls.

The explosive plays counter is something that dates back to Joe Moorhead days. Moorhead notoriously stated that he doesn’t care about time of possession or plays run because his offense is predicated on big plays. The same can be said of Rahne’s offense on Saturday night and for most of his tenure.

Secondly, the complaints about the running game are mostly out of his hands. It’s very difficult to have consistent offensive success when you’re one dimensional, and even more difficult when you struggle to run block and pass block. Something Penn State has dealt with for much of the last year. Penn State averaged 7.8 yards per play against Buffalo, but just 3.3 yards per rush. Some of that falls at the feet of the offensive line, some of that falls at the feet of Matt Limegrover, but some of that also falls at the feet of quarterback Sean Clifford.

While Clifford has been very good in his first two starts, one area he needs to improve is his reads in the run game. In week one, he opted to keep on a play inside the 10 that would’ve been a walk-in touchdown for Ricky Slade. Instead he lost two yards. There were a number of instances against both Idaho and Buffalo where Clifford made the incorrect read on a run that could’ve been a big play. On the play below, he keeps for no gain on a play where Journey Brown could’ve had a big play.

If you recall correctly, it took Trace McSorley about a half of a season before he really began to understand his keys in the run game and become a weapon with his legs. There’s no reason to believe Clifford can’t get there, but until he does the run game will struggle to fire on all cylinders.

Again, Rahne is not without his troubles, but through two games the Nittany Lions have scored 124 points. Say all you want about the level of competition, but that’s impressive against anybody. Maybe the Penn State offense will struggle throughout the rest of the season. Maybe it won’t. But maybe we should give it some time before determining Rahne’s efficacy one way or the other.

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...sive-coordinator-sean-clifford-offensive-line

The most intelligent post of the week.

 

[Sooner Lion]

Rahne has six games to prove his worth. Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State in 2019. Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State in 2020. I have good feelings we will be 2-1 at the worst this year.

 

[SR108]

The most intelligent post of the week.

Good post and true article. The QB making the correct read is very important to this offense. Clifford should keep getting better and better.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Good point.

I realize the Moorhead style relies on big plays rather than ball control, but not having the ability to eat clock lost us the Ohio State and Michigan State games last year. Come conference play, we need to be able to establish a run game and stay ahead of the chains in late game situations.

Our offense was white hot through three games last year: 45, 51, and 63 points. And then another 63 against Illinois. We all saw how that ended. I'm more optimistic with the pass game this year, but I'd really like to see us establish a run game and show that we can dominate the line of scrimmage when we need to.

 

[tboyer]

I don't usually carry the pitchfork but I guess I agree with Urban Meyer, there's too much talent on this offense to be punting 4 out of 5 possessions in the 1st half against Buffalo. Yeah there are 100 good excuses but at some point someone's responsible.

I just don't see the offense coming out confident and attacking. I dont see the offense getting the ball to skill players in space. Third down converstions are so bad they might as well be punting on 3rd down -- one bad game is one game, but two games is a trend.

It just looks too much like last year's offense. If we are still debating Rahne in 3 weeks, Rahne is a problem. If we're still talking about Rahne 8 or 9 games into the season ..... Some people just aren't born to play shortstop and some people are not born to be offensive coordinators.

This season is the last I would give Rahne to learn on the job. If we get to the end of the year and the result is the same as last year, you're not going to be able to blame it on the receivers coach this time.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Good point.

I realize the Moorhead style relies on big plays rather than ball control, but not having the ability to eat clock lost us the Ohio State and Michigan State games last year. Come conference play, we need to be able to establish a run game and stay ahead of the chains in late game situations.

Our offense was white hot through three games last year: 45, 51, and 63 points. And then another 63 against Illinois. We all saw how that ended. I'm more optimistic with the pass game this year, but I'd really like to see us establish a run game and show that we can dominate the line of scrimmage when we need to.

Rahne knows this...... With the RB room we have..... we will be able to kill the clock when we need to.... They have not even started passing to the Rb's in any significant way. Clifford throws a very accurate deep ball..... the RPO and reads will come.... and the backfield.... will respond. Clifford has 2 games under his belt. The jerks here post like he has had a 12 game season under his belt. Rahne will produce a more complete offense than JoMo .... and that takes more work.

 

[Art]

Elite teams get it done. Others make excuses, or at least their fans do.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Rahne knows this...... With the RB room we have..... we will be able to kill the clock when we need to.... They have not even started passing to the Rb's in any significant way. Clifford throws a very accurate deep ball..... the RPO and reads will come.... and the backfield.... will respond. Clifford has 2 games under his belt. The jerks here post like he has had a 12 game season under his belt. Rahne will produce a more complete offense the JoMo .... that takes more work.

I'm not saying you're wrong. But right now, there's no good evidence that's the case. Meaning, aside from Ford's long run and a few solid Journey Brown runs, our backs have gotten very little.

Now, the sample size isn't big enough to tell us much, so there's no need to draw definitive conclusions at this point. But, color me concerned.

I do agree that Clifford's reads will improve, and they're probably trying to get him comfortable and confident in these early games by throwing the ball in situations where we'd ordinarily look to run clock (like the last few drives against Buffalo where we opted to throw it rather than run the clock down). But it remains to be seen what we truly have in terms of a consistent running game.

 

[KnightSlayer]

Some time around 9:30 or on Saturday night, when Penn State entered the locker room trailing Buffalo 10-7, offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne was about to be tried for war crimes by a large angry twitter mob.

The rest is history, as the Nittany Lions scored 38 second-half points and trounced Buffalo 45-13, but the ire still remained.

Now, Rahne has certainly had his fair share of troubles in his time as Penn State’s offensive coordinator. But on Saturday I actually felt like he called a pretty good game.

I’d like to start by addressing a couple of issues that I don’t think are valid criticisms by fans.

Firstly, Buffalo controlled the ball for 42:32 on Saturday night. That’s more than two-thirds of a 60-minute game. They also ran nearly double the amount of offensive plays (90 to 46). Now, you may ask why Penn State didn’t control the ball more, but the Nittany had far more explosive plays than the Bulls.

The explosive plays counter is something that dates back to Joe Moorhead days. Moorhead notoriously stated that he doesn’t care about time of possession or plays run because his offense is predicated on big plays. The same can be said of Rahne’s offense on Saturday night and for most of his tenure.

Secondly, the complaints about the running game are mostly out of his hands. It’s very difficult to have consistent offensive success when you’re one dimensional, and even more difficult when you struggle to run block and pass block. Something Penn State has dealt with for much of the last year. Penn State averaged 7.8 yards per play against Buffalo, but just 3.3 yards per rush. Some of that falls at the feet of the offensive line, some of that falls at the feet of Matt Limegrover, but some of that also falls at the feet of quarterback Sean Clifford.

While Clifford has been very good in his first two starts, one area he needs to improve is his reads in the run game. In week one, he opted to keep on a play inside the 10 that would’ve been a walk-in touchdown for Ricky Slade. Instead he lost two yards. There were a number of instances against both Idaho and Buffalo where Clifford made the incorrect read on a run that could’ve been a big play. On the play below, he keeps for no gain on a play where Journey Brown could’ve had a big play.

If you recall correctly, it took Trace McSorley about a half of a season before he really began to understand his keys in the run game and become a weapon with his legs. There’s no reason to believe Clifford can’t get there, but until he does the run game will struggle to fire on all cylinders.

Again, Rahne is not without his troubles, but through two games the Nittany Lions have scored 124 points. Say all you want about the level of competition, but that’s impressive against anybody. Maybe the Penn State offense will struggle throughout the rest of the season. Maybe it won’t. But maybe we should give it some time before determining Rahne’s efficacy one way or the other.

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...sive-coordinator-sean-clifford-offensive-line

Penn State scored 5 TDs in 5 drives that totaled 15 plays plus another TD on an INT. Buffalo scored 13 points in 39 plays. I'll take explosive offense over time of possesion all day.

 

[Harrisburg Dave]

Rahne, to his credit turned to the passing game. We did them a favor trying to run the ball.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

I'm not saying you're wrong. But right now, there's no good evidence that's the case. Meaning, aside from Ford's long run and a few solid Journey Brown runs, our backs have gotten very little.

Now, the sample size isn't big enough to tell us much, so there's no need to draw definitive conclusions at this point. But, color me concerned.

I do agree that Clifford's reads will improve, and they're probably trying to get him comfortable and confident in these early games by throwing the ball in situations where we'd ordinarily look to run clock (like the last few drives against Buffalo where we opted to throw it rather than run the clock down). But it remains to be seen what we truly have in terms of a consistent running game.

Of course .... You build an offense around an new QB in steps..... Name one QB that stepped on the field year one, game one and two and utilized the whole package.... Zip is the answer.

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Firstly, Buffalo controlled the ball for 42:32 on Saturday night. That’s more than two-thirds of a 60-minute game. They also ran nearly double the amount of offensive plays (90 to 46). Now, you may ask why Penn State didn’t control the ball more, but the Nittany had far more explosive plays than the Bulls.

The explosive plays counter is something that dates back to Joe Moorhead days. Moorhead notoriously stated that he doesn’t care about time of possession or plays run because his offense is predicated on big plays. The same can be said of Rahne’s offense on Saturday night and for most of his tenure.

Secondly, the complaints about the running game are mostly out of his hands. It’s very difficult to have consistent offensive success when you’re one dimensional, and even more difficult when you struggle to run block and pass block. Something Penn State has dealt with for much of the last year. Penn State averaged 7.8 yards per play against Buffalo, but just 3.3 yards per rush. Some of that falls at the feet of the offensive line, some of that falls at the feet of Matt Limegrover, but some of that also falls at the feet of quarterback Sean Clifford.

https://www.blackshoediaries.com/20...sive-coordinator-sean-clifford-offensive-line

You've highlighted some good reasons not to like this offense.

So what happens when you don't have much depth on defense but your defense spends most of the game on the field? Against better teams, for whatever reason, if you don't consistently get those explosive plays, or turn the ball over, you are toast.

The capability for explosive plays does not depend on running an RPO offense. That was demonstrated quite well by lots of teams long before the RPO, including our 1994 team.

Here's a thought: Army nearly beat Oklahoma last year and Michigan this year. What do you think would have happened if the Cadets had on their team the kind of athletes we have at Penn State?

I'm not advocating that we change to Army's system, though we probably could and be just as successful. Few teams run it, so few have practice against it. But I am saying that there is considerable value to keeping the other team's offense on the sidelines when your backups on defense are freshman and sophomores. It is an equalizer when your defense, for whatever reason, is overmatched. There is no reason we can't have an offense that is both clock-consuming and explosive. We have the athletes to do both.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

You've highlighted some good reasons not to like this offense.

So what happens when you don't have much depth on defense but your defense spends most of the game on the field? Against better teams, for whatever reason, if you don't consistently get those explosive plays, or turn the ball over, you are toast.

The capability for explosive plays does not depend on running an RPO offense. That was demonstrated quite well by lots of teams long before the RPO, including our 1994 team.

Here's a thought: Army nearly beat Oklahoma last year and Michigan this year. What do you think would have happened if the Cadets had on their team the kind of athletes we have at Penn State?

I'm not advocating that we change to Army's system, though we probably could and be just as successful. Few teams run it, so few have practice against it. But I am saying that there is considerable value to keeping the other team's offense on the sidelines when your backups on defense are freshman and sophomores. It is an equalizer when your defense, for whatever reason, is overmatched. There is no reason we can't have an offense that is both clock-consuming and explosive. We have the athletes to do both.

You don't let that happen. You keep your defense deep..... where is PSU shallow on depth on defense?

 

[Nitt1300]

I know the perfect coach for some of you guys

 

[psuro]

Just win baby.

 

[Harrisburg Dave]

Just win baby.

Can you imagine what Al did if his son brought a participation trophy home? OMFG!

 

[WyomingLion]

You've highlighted some good reasons not to like this offense.

So what happens when you don't have much depth on defense but your defense spends most of the game on the field? Against better teams, for whatever reason, if you don't consistently get those explosive plays, or turn the ball over, you are toast.

The capability for explosive plays does not depend on running an RPO offense. That was demonstrated quite well by lots of teams long before the RPO, including our 1994 team.

Here's a thought: Army nearly beat Oklahoma last year and Michigan this year. What do you think would have happened if the Cadets had on their team the kind of athletes we have at Penn State?

I'm not advocating that we change to Army's system, though we probably could and be just as successful. Few teams run it, so few have practice against it. But I am saying that there is considerable value to keeping the other team's offense on the sidelines when your backups on defense are freshman and sophomores. It is an equalizer when your defense, for whatever reason, is overmatched. There is no reason we can't have an offense that is both clock-consuming and explosive. We have the athletes to do both.

You will not get athletes like we have to run an offense like Army. Why would a tight end like PF come to block or wide receivers KJ who never sniff the ball?

 

[Option Bob]

You will not get athletes like we have to run an offense like Army. Why would a tight end like PF come to block or wide receivers KJ who never sniff the ball?

You’re probably right, but Oklahoma got TE Keith Jackson to become a Sooner ... and he caught a long touchdown pass to end our unbeaten season of 1985. I can’t remember any Oklahoma WRs.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

You’re probably right, but Oklahoma got TE Keith Jackson to become a Sooner ... and he caught a long touchdown pass to end our unbeaten season of 1985. I can’t remember any Oklahoma WRs.

and?

 

[WyomingLion]

You’re probably right, but Oklahoma got TE Keith Jackson to become a Sooner ... and he caught a long touchdown pass to end our unbeaten season of 1985. I can’t remember any Oklahoma WRs.

This is not 1985.That’s all ya got?

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Should we go back to leather helmets? Ban people that run under a 4.9 40" or have a maximum vertical leap of 12 inches? Would that make this group of resident football experts happy?

 

[Crusher1950]

We played 2 cream puffs, let’s watch what happens when we play the big boys

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

You will not get athletes like we have to run an offense like Army. Why would a tight end like PF come to block or wide receivers KJ who never sniff the ball?

We would not get the same tight ends and receivers, but we also would not need them. I do think we would get much better than military cadets at the other positions though. But this is not that relevant to my point.

What I did (try) to write about (perhaps unsuccessfully) was the value of ball control. I used Army as an example because they do it well, using cadets, while nearly beating some powerhouses.

Memories may be short here, but I do seem to recollect losing some big games in the 4th by not being able to run out the clock, then fielding a tired defense.

It's a concern this year not because Clifford and the RBs are new, but because we're running the same system, with the same OC, while we lack experienced depth on defense. The first half showed what could happen if the defense gets gassed in the 4th by being on the field too much. And this was Buffalo, not Ohio State.

 

[PSUQBKeeper]

We would not get the same tight ends and receivers, but we also would not need them. I do think we would get much better than military cadets at the other positions though. But this is not that relevant to my point.

What I did (try) to write about (perhaps unsuccessfully) was the value of ball control. I used Army as an example because they do it well, using cadets, while nearly beating some powerhouses.

Memories may be short here, but I do seem to recollect losing some big games in the 4th by not being able to run out the clock, then fielding a tired defense.

It's a concern this year not because Clifford and the RBs are new, but because we're running the same system, with the same OC, while we lack experienced depth on defense. The first half showed what could happen if the defense gets gassed in the 4th by being on the field too much. And this was Buffalo, not Ohio State.

but Army does it because they HAVE to....not because it is a better system....if it were a better system everyone would be doing it

 

[artsandletters]

You’re probably right, but Oklahoma got TE Keith Jackson to become a Sooner ... and he caught a long touchdown pass to end our unbeaten season of 1985. I can’t remember any Oklahoma WRs.

Tommy McDonald

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

We would not get the same tight ends and receivers, but we also would not need them. I do think we would get much better than military cadets at the other positions though. But this is not that relevant to my point.

What I did (try) to write about (perhaps unsuccessfully) was the value of ball control. I used Army as an example because they do it well, using cadets, while nearly beating some powerhouses.

Memories may be short here, but I do seem to recollect losing some big games in the 4th by not being able to run out the clock, then fielding a tired defense.

It's a concern this year not because Clifford and the RBs are new, but because we're running the same system, with the same OC, while we lack experienced depth on defense. The first half showed what could happen if the defense gets gassed in the 4th by being on the field too much. And this was Buffalo, not Ohio State.

Exactly, It was preseason. Let's talk about the real regular season when it gets here..... not a fictitious future game..... they went hard after Noah Cain to the very end for a reason.

 

[canuckhal]

Some of you are going to be disappointed. At 21:45 Franklin explains the analytics for offense: 1) explosive plays and 2) turnover battle. Then says time of possession isn't that important.

 

[jbenedict]

Good point.

I realize the Moorhead style relies on big plays rather than ball control, but not having the ability to eat clock lost us the Ohio State and Michigan State games last year. Come conference play, we need to be able to establish a run game and stay ahead of the chains in late game situations.

Our offense was white hot through three games last year: 45, 51, and 63 points. And then another 63 against Illinois. We all saw how that ended. I'm more optimistic with the pass game this year, but I'd really like to see us establish a run game and show that we can dominate the line of scrimmage when we need to.

I absolutely agree. The team really needs the ability to control the line of scrimmage. They need to get a nasty personality. I mean nasty.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

Some of you are going to be disappointed. At 21:45 Franklin explains the analytics for offense: 1) explosive plays and 2) turnover battle. Then says time of possession isn't that important.

View embedded media

Some of these posters think that long explosive plays do not wear down a defense..... but three yards and a cloud of dust does. I love to see the opponents defensive linemen and lbs chasing Hamler and Freiermuth and Jahan and Clifford 40, 50, 60 yards down field.....

 

[Art]

Tommy McDonald

McDonald was a RB at OU.

 

[flash86]

McDonald was a RB at OU.

I think it’s great that someone remembered Tommy McDonald AND that he went Oklahoma - that’s pretty good in its own!

 

[sluggo72]

McDonald was a RB at OU.

He was a guest pro at the football camp I attended as a kid

 

[artsandletters]

I think it’s great that someone remembered Tommy McDonald AND that he went Oklahoma - that’s pretty good in its own!

Yeah, Art. And that Tommy wore #25. And that he became an accomplished painter/artist.

 

[Art]

Yeah, Art. And that Tommy wore #25. And that he became an accomplished painter/artist.

Do you remember Norm McDonald? How abut Norm Snead?

 

[PennState_one]

It all boils down to Clifford making the right reads, which will come with time and experience. Once this happens, the entire team will become more confident and it will show. Just be glad the beginning of the season is laid out the way it is (game wise).

They didnt have to learn anything from Idaho and it showed against buffalo. Buffalo gave them things to learn when they play Pitt. I firmly believe we won't see nearly the amount of the same mistakes against Pitt and it will only get better every game.

However, only time will tell...

 

[Cosmos]

I don't usually carry the pitchfork but I guess I agree with Urban Meyer, there's too much talent on this offense to be punting 4 out of 5 possessions in the 1st half against Buffalo. Yeah there are 100 good excuses but at some point someone's responsible.

I just don't see the offense coming out confident and attacking. I dont see the offense getting the ball to skill players in space. Third down converstions are so bad they might as well be punting on 3rd down -- one bad game is one game, but two games is a trend.

It just looks too much like last year's offense. If we are still debating Rahne in 3 weeks, Rahne is a problem. If we're still talking about Rahne 8 or 9 games into the season ..... Some people just aren't born to play shortstop and some people are not born to be offensive coordinators.

This season is the last I would give Rahne to learn on the job. If we get to the end of the year and the result is the same as last year, you're not going to be able to blame it on the receivers coach this time.

^^^ This. Ricky Rahne (pronounced Ronny) is on the clock. Penn State is no place for OJT. Thank you.

 

[djr4rebs]

Ga Tech tried that offense at the P5 level. Some success when they developed and/or hit good on recruits, but nobody is confusing them with Alabama.

 

[PaoliLion]

I don't usually carry the pitchfork but I guess I agree with Urban Meyer, there's too much talent on this offense to be punting 4 out of 5 possessions in the 1st half against Buffalo. Yeah there are 100 good excuses but at some point someone's responsible.

I just don't see the offense coming out confident and attacking. I dont see the offense getting the ball to skill players in space. Third down converstions are so bad they might as well be punting on 3rd down -- one bad game is one game, but two games is a trend.

It just looks too much like last year's offense. If we are still debating Rahne in 3 weeks, Rahne is a problem. If we're still talking about Rahne 8 or 9 games into the season ..... Some people just aren't born to play shortstop and some people are not born to be offensive coordinators.

This season is the last I would give Rahne to learn on the job. If we get to the end of the year and the result is the same as last year, you're not going to be able to blame it on the receivers coach this time.

Amen

 

[KnightWhoSaysNit]

Some of you are going to be disappointed. At 21:45 Franklin explains the analytics for offense: 1) explosive plays and 2) turnover battle. Then says time of possession isn't that important.

View embedded media

Not exactly what he said. He said time of possession is "not as big a factor" (relative to explosive plays and turnovers). I think there is a significant difference in connotation.

I would not be surprised that explosive plays and turnovers show strong correlation with winning -- perhaps stronger than time of possession -- but can you exclusively play to those goals without negative, unintended consequences?

Relative time of possession (or number of plays) has got to affect fatigue on a defense. When the defense is fatigued in the 4th quarter, the opponent might very well be the side that then winds up with the explosive plays. So the stat alone might show strong correlation, but the presumption of root cause/effect may be wrong, or not as strong as it would seem.

A team that can march downfield but can't score in the red zone is a team that may win the time-of-possession stat but lose the game. Or maybe a team gets to the red zone by an explosive play but then can't punch it in. Which is better for the other side of the ball -- the other half of the score? These sorts of skewing issues invariably get buried within data.

So there are pitfalls to drawing conclusions from stats derived from what statisticians call "happenstance data." That is what we have in a football game. It's a complicated game, with factors that are not controlled and not independent, so neither are the conclusions about a hierarchy of factors, and thereby priorities.

We go to Columbus this year. Let's see if the 4th quarter plays out differently than last time.