This site says 3 more PSU wins gives them a 47% chance of making the tourney. 4 more wins seems like it would be a pretty sure thing. 2-1 the last 3 and 2 tourney wins....really would like them to finish 5th to play in the 4-5 seeded game on Fri of the Big 10 tourney.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/penn-st-nittany-lions/bracketology
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/penn-st-nittany-lions/bracketology