Is a NY6 bowl still within reach if we run the table?
- Thread starter cyrizzle
- Start date
IMHO, no, that ship sailed after the Illinois loss. Citrus or Outback would be the best we could do.
I’d say it’s possible in the event that OSU goes to the playoff.
With wins over Michigan and MSU, PSU could finish as the second highest ranked team in the B10 behind OSU, sending them to the Rose Bowl, but I find it highly unlikely we would win out at this point.
With wins over Michigan and MSU, PSU could finish as the second highest ranked team in the B10 behind OSU, sending them to the Rose Bowl, but I find it highly unlikely we would win out at this point.
If we win out? Yes, we have a shot. But there is no margin of error.
If we are a three-loss team with wins over ranked Auburn, UM and MSU, I think we definitely have a shot. It wouldn’t be unprecedented. Just two years ago, three-loss Wisconsin made the Rose Bowl.
If we are a three-loss team with wins over ranked Auburn, UM and MSU, I think we definitely have a shot. It wouldn’t be unprecedented. Just two years ago, three-loss Wisconsin made the Rose Bowl.
I think your crazy. Alvarez owns a timeshare in Pasadena and his time is always Rose Bowl week. Barry has that one locked in.
Big difference was Wiscy won Big 10 West & 3rd loss came in Big 10 title game.
I guess theoretically still a shot, but think chances are quite slim. At this point, believe our ceiling is the Citrus Bowl, but even for that, will have to win out.
Wisconsin is going to be ranked as well when they win the west. Assuming they lose, it would open the door for us to make it to the Rose Bowl, unfortunately to step through it MSU is going to need 3 losses. We're one and OSU is one in this scenario. The third unfortunately has to be Purdue or Maryland (so Purdue).
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Highly unlikely we go to ths Rose Bowl even if we win out. Yes, MSU would need to lose a third game outside of us and O$U. Doubt that is happening.
IF we do win out, I think the Citrus is a good possibility. Reminds me of 2018 although I do not want to play Kentucky.
Let's just beat MD at this point.
IF we do win out, I think the Citrus is a good possibility. Reminds me of 2018 although I do not want to play Kentucky.
Let's just beat MD at this point.
I’ll channel my inner Jim Mora here: Rose Bowl? Don’t talk about Rose Bowl! You kidding me? Rose Bowl? I just hope we can win another game!
Yeah, don’t wanna play Kentucky. The storyline would be over the top by the media.
IF we win out we get a NY6, IMO. That is quite a schedule we play and with four in playoffs and 12 teams playing in six bowls....yep we would be in.
Don't quote me...but I think we'll be the highest ranked 3-loss team on Tuesday night and will come in around #18.
Win over MSU and UM...and end on a 4-game win streak, and we'll be inside the top 10 EASILY...and then definitely in a NY6 bowl.
The Illinois loss will still be a head scratcher...but the season isn't a lost cause.
Win over MSU and UM...and end on a 4-game win streak, and we'll be inside the top 10 EASILY...and then definitely in a NY6 bowl.
The Illinois loss will still be a head scratcher...but the season isn't a lost cause.
Our big wins tempered by our iffy losses would put us in a position to be in the top 10 by year's end.
But it means running the table and I'm not sure we didn't leave the luggage on the table at the 'shoe. To go forward...
We need a running game and imo it has to be Lee 100%. It can't be lovett or cain...not gonna happen.
Take the fing shot already.
But it means running the table and I'm not sure we didn't leave the luggage on the table at the 'shoe. To go forward...
We need a running game and imo it has to be Lee 100%. It can't be lovett or cain...not gonna happen.
Take the fing shot already.
Read an article yesterday that said if we lose another game (Which honestly is likely) Pinstripe would grab us.
Now the interesting thing is Pitt loses again we could see them in NYC.
I think with Pickett having a season and currently being the top QB prospect or one of the top Sun or Mayo would take them. But who knows
outside a few non NY6. Bowls don’t excite me much.
Now the interesting thing is Pitt loses again we could see them in NYC.
I think with Pickett having a season and currently being the top QB prospect or one of the top Sun or Mayo would take them. But who knows
outside a few non NY6. Bowls don’t excite me much.
If we were to win out, I'm not sure MSU would be ranked ahead of us with 2 losses.
MSU is a 3-point favorite at Purdue this week too. Should be a good game.
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But we’d be behind them in the conference standings with 3 conference losses to two. Could be wrong but I feel like historically the bowl pecking order has generally been dictated by the standings over the rankingsZ
You may be right. Let's revisit in a few weeks. If the Illinois loss ends up keeping us out of the NYC, that's going to be a tough pill to swallow.
Really curious to see where we land tomorrow night. At the moment, we're the only 3-loss team in both the Coaches and AP poll. Seems we may be getting the benefit of the doubt these past few weeks given Clifford's status. We're an 11.5 point favorite @ Maryland this week. Really need to get back on track and build some momentum.
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If we win out we’ll likely end the season with wins over 4 top 25 teams (Franklin sucks and never beats good teams though so don’t count on it /s). Which I think would be the most in the conference.
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Win out is one thing. Play like they did on Saturday--that is possible.
Getting to NY6 as 9-3 is likely not possible when you consider the spots available. When you consider who has priority in those 12 spots.
Getting the Rose Bowl slot would mean all of this would have to happen.
Getting to NY6 as 9-3 is likely not possible when you consider the spots available. When you consider who has priority in those 12 spots.
- Georgia is pretty much guaranteed a playoff or NY6 spot
- Cincinnati is pretty much guaranteed a playoff or NY6 spot (as highest G5 team)
- Oklahoma is pretty much guaranteed a playoff or NY6 spot
- Ohio State is pretty much guaranteed a playoff or NY6 spot (even one more loss wouldn't prevent them from a NY6)
- Alabama is very likely in the playoff or NY6. Even if they lose to Auburn and Georgia in SEC champ (assuming Auburn doesn't win out and make the SEC champ game)
- Oregon is very likely in the playoff or NY6 bowl. They could lose once more (in the regular season or Pac 12 champ game) and finish 11-2 and that would still get them a NY6 spot
- Kentucky is in a NY6 spot if they finish 10-2. We'd need them to lose to Tennessee and hope we're ranked higher than them. If Alabama and Georgia get into playoff, Kentucky could take the SEC spot in the Sugar.
- ACC champ will get into NY6 regardless of where they are ranked. If Pitt beats an undefeated Wake Forest, WF could make an at-large bid as 12-1 team.
- Notre Dame is very likely guaranteed a NY6 spot unless they lose twice more but their schedule isn't very strong.
- Baylor OR Ok State will be in NY6 if Oklahoma makes the playoff regardless of their record since the Sugar Bowl has to take a B12 team.
- Texas A&M OR Ole Miss - one of these teams has a very good chance to be 10-2 while the other 9-3. In both cases, it's not inconceivable for both to ranked higher than a 9-3 PSU.
Getting the Rose Bowl slot would mean all of this would have to happen.
- We win out
- OSU in the playoff
- Iowa losing at least once more
- Wiscy winning out but then losing the B10 game
- Beating MSU and MSU losing to OSU and Purdue or MD
- Beating Mich and Mich also losing to OSU
Even that would require a 3-1 finish. I don't think PSU can do that unless Clifford heals enough that he's once again a running threat.
It's unfortunate. There's a very good chance that PSU would be 8-0 if not for the injuries to Clifford and Mustipher.
Not as crazy as it sounds. Not uncommon for B1G to have three teams in NY6.
If we assume OSU wins out, that would be
OSU (12-1) B1G champ
MSU (10-2) with win over UM, losses to PSU and OSU
PSU (9-3) with wins over MSU and UM, loss to OSU
UM (9-3) with losses to all three
In that scenario, UM is definitely out. An argument could be made for PSU over MSU because of head to head plus MSU’s best win would be a win PSU shares.
If we assume OSU wins out, that would be
OSU (12-1) B1G champ
MSU (10-2) with win over UM, losses to PSU and OSU
PSU (9-3) with wins over MSU and UM, loss to OSU
UM (9-3) with losses to all three
In that scenario, UM is definitely out. An argument could be made for PSU over MSU because of head to head plus MSU’s best win would be a win PSU shares.
I think so. Beat UM and MSU, and who knows, might get a shot at the Big Ten Championship game. Odds aren't high, but hey, that's why they play the f'ing game.
MSU is the team to beat IMO. Grinding run game, and K9 is the real deal. Fast, strong and finishes his runs hard.
You are mostly correct. Four out of seven years, the B10 had 3 or more teams. The caveat to that is they all were in the top 12 CFP Rankings which is what the NY6 follows to fill the slots.
2014 - 2 B10 teams (OSU in playoff, #8 MSU was 10-2)
2015 - 3 B10 teams (MSU in playoff, #5 Iowa in Rose as replacement, and #7 OSU at 11-1)
2016 - 4 B10 teams (OSU in playoff, #5 PSU in Rose as B10 champ, #6 Mich at 10-2 and #8 WIscy at 10-3 were at large picks)
2017 - 3 B10 teams (#5 OSU was B10 champ, #6 Wisc at 12-1 and #9 PSU 10-2 were at large picks)
2018 - 2 B10 teams (#6 OSU as B10 champ and #7 Mich as 10-2)
2019 - 3 B10 teams (OSU in playoff, #8 Wisc at 10-3 in Rose as replacement, and #10 PSU at 10-2 was an at large)
2020 - 1 B10 team (OSU in playoff) Indiana got screwed as they were #11 but because ACC had Clemson in the playoff, the Orange Bowl get an ACC replacement pick and had to take #13 UNC).
Outside of the 10-3 Wisc in 2016 and 2019, no other 3 loss B10 has been in the NY6 and those two Wisc teams took their 3rd loss in the B10 champ game. Here are the teams with 3+ losses who made a NY6 bowl:
- 2014 - #9 Ole Miss (9-3) - at large
- 2014 - #10 Arizona (10-3) took their 3rd loss in P12 champ game - highest ranked P12 replacement team as Oregon made the playoff
- 2014 - #12 Georgia Tech (10-3) - took their 3rd loss in ACC champ game - highest ranked ACC replacement team as Oregon made the playoff
- 2015 - #12 Ole Miss (9-3) - highest ranked SEC replacement with Alabama in playoff
- 2016 - #11 FSU (9-3) - highest ranked ACC team with Clemson in playoff
- 2016 - #8 Wisconsin (see above)
- 2016 - #9 USC (9-3) - highest ranked P12 team with Washington in playoff
- 2016 - #14 Auburn (8-4) - highest ranked SEC team with Alabama in playoff
- 2017 - #7 Auburn (10-3) - Took 3rd loss in SEC champ game - at large
- 2018 - #10 Florida (9-3) - at large
- 2018 - #11 LSU (9-3) - at large
- 2018 - #15 Texas (9-4) - 4th loss in B12 champ game and was the highest ranked B12 team with Oklahoma in playoff
- 2018 - #9 Washington (10-3) - P12 champion
- 2019 - #24 Virginia (9-4) - 4th loss in ACC champ game and highest ranked ACC team with Clemson in playoff
- 2019 - #8 Wisconsin (see above)
That scenario doesn't put us in the big ten champ game though.Here's how we get to the NY6:
We win out.
MSU and UM beat OSU
MSU loses to Maryland
We are in the CCG where I like our chances. Simple.
We have 3 big ten losses.
OSU has none so in addition to dropping to msu and um they need to lose to purdue or nebraska .
Even if they do...
UM has 1 big ten loss so they'd need to lose to to us and indiana or maryland.
And then...
msu has no big ten losses so they would need to lose to us, purdue and maryland.
So now.
It is a 4 way tie and I'm not going to bother looking into the tiebreakers
But we'd only have one in the East. All the others would have 2 or more, so we'd go as the East Champion. At least I think I have that correct.
You don’t. It doesn’t go by division record. Just conference. Division record is a tiebreaker is certain scenarios.
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Division record is the second tiebreaker in the event of a 3 (or more) way tie.
