Is January 17, 2025 The Day?

[wrestleknownothing]

B1G Day

What happens January 17, 2025 you reasonably ask?

Well Nebraska hosts Penn State for a Big Ten dual. Which means we should get Caleb Smith vs Luke Lilledahl. With their latest rankings drop Intermat has Smith #5 and Lilledahl #11. If Lilledahl wins that match up it is possible that he jumps into Intermat's top 5. But the real significance is that if no one else on PSU looses before then all ten PSU wrestlers will be ranked in the Intermat top five. And with only the Michigan State dual between now and Nebraska, a PSU lose to Sparty seems highly unlikely. Wild.

This is possible because with their respective 3-0 Sunday afternoons, Braeden Davis and Josh Barr moved into the Intermat top 5.



Of course there are other landmines in the Nebraska dual that could derail the Top 5 Train. While wrestlestat has it 32-0 for PSU, among Jacob Van Dee, Brock Hardy, Ridge Lovett would anyone be surprised if there was at least one win for the Huskers? Two? Three?

Minnesota 2.0?

Right now PSU sits on 8 expected AAs. This is just shy of the 8.1 expected AAs they had going into the tournament last year.

They also improved their chances of achieving a tie with Minnesota as the only teams with 10 AAs to an absurd 6.65%.



As a reminder, going into the 2007 tournament Minnesota had an expected AA count of just 6.5 with a 0.78% chance of ten.

Screw them odds, Poindexter.

And Merry Christmas everyone.

 

[El-Jefe]

It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.

Except take a look at Davis. He was #10 last week, beat the #5 by 1-0, and jumped 5 spots to #5.

 

[Sleepylion]

B1G Day

What happens January 17, 2025 you reasonably ask?

Well Nebraska hosts Penn State for a Big Ten dual. Which means we should get Caleb Smith vs Luke Lilledahl. With their latest rankings drop Intermat has Smith #5 and Lilledahl #11. If Lilledahl wins that match up it is possible that he jumps into Intermat's top 5. But the real significance is that if no one else on PSU looses before then all ten PSU wrestlers will be ranked in the Intermat top five. And with only the Michigan State dual between now and Nebraska, a PSU lose to Sparty seems highly unlikely. Wild.

This is possible because with their respective 3-0 Sunday afternoons, Braeden Davis and Josh Barr moved into the Intermat top 5.



Of course there are other landmines in the Nebraska dual that could derail the Top 5 Train. While wrestlestat has it 32-0 for PSU, among Jacob Van Dee, Brock Hardy, Ridge Lovett would anyone be surprised if there was at least one win for the Huskers? Two? Three?

Minnesota 2.0?

Right now PSU sits on 8 expected AAs. This is just shy of the 8.1 expected AAs they had going into the tournament last year.

They also improved their chances of achieving a tie with Minnesota as the only teams with 10 AAs to an absurd 6.65%.



As a reminder, going into the 2007 tournament Minnesota had an expected AA count of just 6.5 with a 0.78% chance of ten.

Screw them odds, Poindexter.

And Merry Christmas everyone.

Good stuff as usual.

 

[orange nole]

It's a nice thought, but Lilledahl isn't jumping 6 guys simply for beating #5. Not even if he teched Smith (which is unlikely). He'd need some help -- meaning several of those guys above him losing, preferably by upset or getting crushed by comparably/higher ranked opponents.

Better chance a month later on 2/14 when Lilledahl beats #6 McCrone, but even then it's not a given.

I think it could happen. He’d be undefeated still and finally have that elite win along with the historical pedigree that solidifies freshmen in climbing the rankings. He’d jump a few at least, the publications are looking for substantiation and that would be it for them.

 

[El-Jefe]

Except take a look at Davis. He was #10 last week, beat the #5 by 1-0, and jumped 5 spots to #5.

Who else lost last week?

 

[FatWoodchuck]

I think it could happen. He’d be undefeated still and finally have that elite win along with the historical pedigree that solidifies freshmen in climbing the rankings. He’d jump a few at least, the publications are looking for substantiation and that would be it for them.

I think Id rather over achieving much more than than just going chalk with the rankings or expecting more and getting less ie. Davis ranked one and being losing in the blood round. Every one can put our guys outside the top 8 and they all AA is a great feeling, I'd have to assume.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

Who else lost last week?

Among the guys he leapfrogged?

Tyler Wells did not wrestle.
Tyler Knox did not wrestle.
Nic Bouzakis beat Anthony Noto.
Evan Frost beat Ethan Oakley.
Kai Orine was newly ranked at 133 after being ranked 10 at 141 the prior week. Oh, and he beat Tyler Ferrera.

So, just the guy he beat.

As I said, it is possible. Especially given the precedence of just this week with just this team at just the next weight.

 

[orange nole]

I think Id rather over achieving much more than than just going chalk with the rankings or expecting more and getting less ie. Davis ranked one and being losing in the blood round. Every one can put our guys outside the top 8 and they all AA is a great feeling, I'd have to assume.

I can certainly understand that mindset. I love numbers, rankings, and brackets and how they work in individual tournaments. Not as much as wkn most likely, but another reason why I love wrestling so much. But if I were the coach…none of this stuff would be focused on at all.

Fun fact, my dad taught Cael in AP Statistics in high school. I only took a couple classes in college for business and a math endorsement. The numbers involved here are very fascinating and fun to talk about as they evolve/change

 

[GogglesPaizano]

No doubt Luke earned the spot, but I have seen enough of McHenry to have been more than happy with him maning the spot this year. I am a little bummed for him being oh so close in his last year. I wanted him as a recruit.

I see an AA there in Kurt and imagine LL after a full year in the room? He is likely getting better by the week as do all PSU true freshman. I won't be surprised by even a couple of losses before bigs.

I suspect there are concerns that Luke won't prove a career 125 so why not have the best go right away?

PS - was it just me or did McHenry not look like a SVN mini me this past weekend, both in person and style?

 

[wrestleknownothing]

No doubt Luke earned the spot, but I have seen enough of McHenry to have been more than happy with him maning the spot this year. I am a little bummed for him being oh so close. I wanted him as a recruit.

I see an AA there in Kurt and imagine LL after a full year in the room? He is likely getting better by the week as do all PSU true freshman. I won't be surprised by even a couple of losses before bigs.

I suspect there are concerns that Luke won't prove a career 125 so why not have the best go right away?

PS - was it just me or did McHenry not look like a SVN mini n me this past weekend?

It was not just you

 

[District four]

It was not just you

I actually thought it was an for a minute lol