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Isaac, Theo, Jacobs

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africamurphy

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Apr 1, 2019
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Take a look at our 2023 roster...and assuming we don't lose any starters or probable contributors to the transfer portal...

And the difference between a CFP run and another good-not-great season is the decision of these three fellas to come back next year.

All three should blossom to stars next year. All were good this year (Jacobs was probably the best...), but none dominated. With another year they can become dominant. What's in it for them?

Adisa can go from a 7th round pick to a day 2 pick.
Theo can go from a 3rd or 4th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick.
Jacobs can go from a 4th or 5th round pick to a day 2 pick.

And for PSU...we'd get an experienced, star LB back...an elite, top 5 in the nation TE for Allar to find in a pinch...and an elite DE to rotate with Chop and Deni.

I will allow the 2023 hype train to rev to full speed if those three return!

Stay tuned...
 
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I'm surprised we haven't heard more decisions now that the bowl game is over.
 
africamurphy said:
Take a look at our 2023 roster...and assuming we don't lose any starters or probable contributors to the transfer portal...

And the difference between a CFP run and another good-not-great season is the decision of these three fellas to come back next year.

All three should blossom to stars next year. All were good this year (Jacobs was probably the best...), but none dominated. With another year they can become dominant. What's in it for them?

Adisa can go from a 7th round pick to a day 2 pick.
Theo can go from a 3rd or 4th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick.
Jacobs can go from a 4th or 5th round pick to a day 2 pick.

And for PSU...we'd get an experienced, star LB back...an elite, top 5 in the nation TE for Allar to find in a pinch...and an elite DE to rotate with Chop and Deni.

I will allow the 2023 hype train to rev to full speed if those three return!

Stay tuned...
Click to expand...
Did you look at who might be draft available next year to come up with those projections? How many TEs will there be and how good are they? Same with other positions…..do they look at or have advisors look at such data?
 
bdgan said:
I'm surprised we haven't heard more decisions now that the bowl game is over.
Click to expand...
Probably blocked out distractions for bowl prep. As such, they have a lot of intel to sort through.
Fans here make it seem easy...."come back" and everything will be better for your future.
That's not the real world.
Keep in mind that even a 4th round pick can get big money.

heavy.com

NFL Draft Salaries 2020: How Much Money Do 4th-7th Round Picks Make?

How much money do NFL draft picks on day three make? Find out the rookie salary and contract details for the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks of the NFL draft.
heavy.com heavy.com
 
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PSU draft eligible prospects draft projection:

12 Porter 1st rd
112 Washington 4th rd
194 Isaac 6th rd
238 Tinsley 7th rd
257 Brown 7th rd

There were 262 picks in the 2022 NFL draft

361 Mustipher
374 Johnson
396 Wallace
500 Strange

I quit looking at 2 times the number of NFL draft picks.

Some of these guys are getting very bad information. Who is advising them?

NFL draft eligible prospects ranked by draft projection
 
Good info, online persona. I disagree with some of it...but it's nice to have data to discuss. Jayir Brown will go higher than 7th...I'm guessing 4th or 5th.

Shocked Jacobs isn't even in the top 500...but all the more reason to come back and clean up next to Abdul next year.

I don't think Strange can put up much "new" film that can increase his stock anymore. I do think he'll get drafted though. Very late. And a healthy Theo and Tyler Warren will only encroach on more of his PT next season...
 
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marshall23 said:
Fans here make it seem easy...."come back" and everything will be better for your future.
That's not the real world.
Keep in mind that even a 4th round pick can get big money.
Click to expand...
4th round money is good money. But if you are in a spot to move up 2 rounds, that's an intriguing investment in yourself. (Especially while making some NIL money during another year in college...)

Not every guy has the ability to move up a lot. And even the ones I mentioned above...might get hurt, might not drastically improve, might split time with another fast-riser...so I know nothing is guaranteed.

I just think that Adisa, Curtis, and Theo might blossom with another year...
 
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africamurphy said:
With another year they can become dominant. What's in it for them?

Adisa can go from a 7th round pick to a day 2 pick.
Theo can go from a 3rd or 4th round pick to a 1st or 2nd round pick.
Jacobs can go from a 4th or 5th round pick to a day 2 pick.
Click to expand...
I'm sorry--what is this nonsense? It's based on what?
Hope they come back but this is literally just stuff you made up in hopes they comeback that isn't reality at all.
 
Online Persona said:
PSU draft eligible prospects draft projection:

12 Porter 1st rd
112 Washington 4th rd
194 Isaac 6th rd
238 Tinsley 7th rd
257 Brown 7th rd

There were 262 picks in the 2022 NFL draft

361 Mustipher
374 Johnson
396 Wallace
500 Strange

I quit looking at 2 times the number of NFL draft picks.

Some of these guys are getting very bad information. Who is advising them?

NFL draft eligible prospects ranked by draft projection
Click to expand...
It's not about advice. Things have changed drastically. Maybe they simply are done with school and want to move on. There's no guarantee coming back helps that. It may stay the same, improve or get worse. It's not about--"declare when you're ready"
 
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africamurphy said:
4th round money is good money. But if you are in a spot to move up 2 rounds, that's an intriguing investment in yourself. (Especially while making some NIL money during another year in college...)

Not every guy has the ability to move up a lot. And even the ones I mentioned above...might get hurt, might not drastically improve, might split time with another fast-riser...so I know nothing is guaranteed.

I just think that Adisa, Curtis, and Theo might blossom with another year...
Click to expand...
Or they might have a career ending injury. That's an unfortunate reality of football. The reason why we can't imagine how difficult a decision it may be. Nor do we know what a 4 million dollar contract might do for their families.
I hope all the contributors stay each year. But, I'm resigned to letting them go because ultimately that's what college players do.
 
marshall23 said:
Or they might have a career ending injury. That's an unfortunate reality of football. The reason why we can't imagine how difficult a decision it may be. Nor do we know what a 4 million dollar contract might do for their families.
I hope all the contributors stay each year. But, I'm resigned to letting them go because ultimately that's what college players do.
Click to expand...
And for some guys that PS contact would change the lives of their families even if they're an UDFA.
 
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With the XFL returning, the USFL gearing up for year 2, and the ever steady CFL, there are more options than "NFL or bust". We might not like it, but imagine somebody telling you to stay at your job another year before moving on.
 
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lazydave841 said:
With the XFL returning, the USFL gearing up for year 2, and the ever steady CFL, there are more options than "NFL or bust". We might not like it, but imagine somebody telling you to stay at your job another year before moving on.
Click to expand...
Players make more in college than the XFL.
 
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marshall23 said:
Did Oweh have a sack? He went #1 round. NFL scouts aren't interested in tackle charts.
They are more interested in physical attributes. If a player scores at the combine....someone is gonna pay him.
Click to expand...
This is absolutely true but do you see Jacobs as someone that is going to woe scouts?
 
Cowbell Man said:
In that case college football players definitely make more money even without NIL. They don’t pay for food or housing and they are getting tuition.

And that compensation isn’t taxable.
Click to expand...

www.footballoutsiders.com

The Value of Undrafted Free Agents

Guest columnist Joe Mahoney looks at Day 3 draft picks vs. undrafted free agents. There are a number of reasons why players would prefer to be undrafted rather than taken in Rounds 6-7.
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com
 
Cowbell Man said:
In that case college football players definitely make more money even without NIL. They don’t pay for food or housing and they are getting tuition.

And that compensation isn’t taxable.
Click to expand...
They don't care about the food, housing and tuition. It's not "cash" or "money" to them. We're way past the days where that mattered. They want to bring in some to support their families or enjoy life.
 
A few thoughts,

1) The decision should be about maximizing earnings opportunity. There is a HUGE difference in just 2 rounds of the draft.

2) If you are likely to move up a couple of rounds then you are losing millions leaving early.

3) If you are worried about injuries and have a decent draft grade, you can get insurance and the school can pay for it.

4) And you can get paid NIL which is likely much higher than average WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY increasing your future draft position and thus future earnings.

5) If you are looking at a late round or less grade (pretty much everyone this year except Porter) than you almost certainly would do better returning with a strong year.

6) Where it makes sense to leave early is a) rounds 1-3, or b) you have plateaued or regressed in development, or c) you have a young player supplanting you on the depth chart. Examples, Porter 1st round, Tarburton (Chop is going to pass him by).

Several of our players left early and were undrafted and out of football in the last couple of years. That is already happening this year as well with Tarburton and Strange. It's very likely to be the case for Jacobs and Johnson if they choose to go as well as they currently have undrafted grades. Isaac could be there as well because a 6th round grade doesn't guarantee that you get your name called either and you get less opportunity to catch on if you were a UDFA.

The clown argument about being just ready to go is completely irrational. It's about maximizing your earnings potential. Just ready to go and losing out on millions is flat out stupid. Porter is doing this right. Dotson did this right. They were in different situations and they both are maximizing their earnings potential. Ellis brooks did this wrong last year and now where is he?
 
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Online Persona said:
2) If you are likely to move up a couple of rounds then you are losing millions leaving early.
Click to expand...

But no one is ever "likely" to move up a couple rounds by staying. They could but they could as easily fall depending the quality of that draft class the following year.
 
Online Persona said:
The clown argument about being just ready to go is completely irrational.
Click to expand...

Are all of our athletes enrolled in course work that maximizes the type of degree that they can get, thus maximizing their earning potential in case football doesn't work out?

If they aren't, then your statement is truly just your opinion and a poor argument. The # of kids who are going to make a NFL roster is small. I'd like to see our kids exhaust their eligibility, win titles, and get drafted; it's not going to be a reality for all of them.
 
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marshall23 said:
PSU players aren't making that. Not on average.
Click to expand...
Tuition, room and board are north of 40K for in state IIRC so it's not far off...plus their getting an education. XFL you make $59K and have to pay living expenses.
 
No one is ever likely to move up a couple rounds by staying? The most probable outcome by far if they stay another year developing is to move up a couple of rounds.
 
lazydave841 said:
Are all of our athletes enrolled in course work that maximizes the type of degree that they can get, thus maximizing their earning potential in case football doesn't work out?

If they aren't, then your statement is truly just your opinion and a poor argument. The # of kids who are going to make a NFL roster is small. I'd like to see our kids exhaust their eligibility, win titles, and get drafted; it's not going to be a reality for all of them.
Click to expand...
So your argument is that they are better off leaving college early in case the NFL doesn't work out? No degree, no problem? A bachelor's is better than a master's? I'm trying to understand your logic.
 
Online Persona said:
So your argument is that they are better off leaving college early in case the NFL doesn't work out? No degree, no problem? A bachelor's is better than a master's? I'm trying to understand your logic.
Click to expand...
Who says they want to get a masters?
Who says they'll work in their field?
Who says they can afford another year of not earning an income? You're ignoring everything other than "come back regardless"
 
LandoComando said:
Who says they want to get a masters?
Who says they'll work in their field?
Who says they can afford another year of not earning an income? You're ignoring everything other than "come back regardless"
Click to expand...
Wrong. I laid out a number of points above that defined the situations where it made sense to leave early and even gave examples of those with our players that have done so.

I also laid out situations where it made sense to return and it was based on helping the player increase their earnings potential.

I want these young men to make the right decision that is the best for their futures. Why don't you want them to make the smartest choice for themselves?
 
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Online Persona said:
Wrong. I laid out a number of points above that defined the situations where it made sense to leave early and even gave examples of those with our players that have done so.

I also laid out situations where it made sense to return and it was based on helping the player increase their earnings potential.
I want these young men to make the right decision that is the best for their futures.
Click to expand...
I apologize--come back unless you're a high draft pick or fall into a category THAT YOU NOT THE PLAYER believes is okay
They are making the decisions they believe are best for their futures. It just doesn't align with what you want to see for Penn State football.
You criticizing Brooks proves that. It's not about what YOU think is best or how they should live their life. It's how they think they should live their lives.
 
Online Persona said:
So your argument is that they are better off leaving college early in case the NFL doesn't work out? No degree, no problem? A bachelor's is better than a master's? I'm trying to understand your logic.
Click to expand...

My argument is that no singular path is a guarantee.

I don't think any of our kids are leaving without a degree. If they are, I agree that's a mistake unless they are going 1st or 2nd round.

What are the degrees in? What can they do with them? Not all degrees are equal.

Everything you say is 100% about getting our experienced players back in hopes we can win titles next year. The whole "improve their draft stock" and "getting a master's" is just window dressing. It sounds great. I want Jacobs, Johnson, and Issac back. They would be key contributors towards a Big 10 title run.

It's just that I don't believe that returning guarantees that they improve their draft stock. What if it doesn't? Stay again to improve it for another year? Leave and be called Ellis Brooks?

And I'll throw this out there: Isn't Olu making a mistake for his potential future earnings? Wouldn't leaving and being a 1st rd pick maximize his earnings? One extra year of contract millions?

Apparently, his family wants him to get his degree. I respect that. It also tells me they don't need him going pro to get out of poverty as well.

Why aren't you pushing for him to turn pro and maximize his earnings?
 
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Online Persona said:
Wrong. That doesn’t even make any sense. The average 20 year old kid gets another year of development, coaching, game experience, and gets worse?
Click to expand...
Yes some do regress and if they slide to the next year it can be stronger at the position. See the money Bryce Love lost by going back to school for starters. He comes out in 2018 he's at worst an early 2. There's countless examples. Your assumption returning means you move up is illogical.
 
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