Joel's taking it hard

[bdroc]

Honestly though--does anyone disagree with the point being made that Oregon got a tougher path than others because of the format.

I'm not sure. Oregon needed a last second FG to beat Boise yet these analysts think PSU should beat them easily.

Regarding format: I'm OK with conference winners getting an automatic spot but I don't think they should get an automatic 1st round bye. Winning your conference basketball tournament gets you an automatic bid, but it doesn't guarantee you a number one seed

 

[Jerry]

Its great to have ankle biters again. Of course, we have to win. SMU is no pushover. They are a team that deserved their playoff spot and will play hard and loose.

Totally agree. Klatt's disrespecting SMU big-time with his attitude. They're a good team and this is far from an automatic win.

That said, I do think there's a lot of pressure on our coach. We're solid favorites playing in our own stadium. It's a playoff game and therefore by definition "big." This is a game we should win. Honestly, I'd almost say this is a game we must win.

 

[Jerry]

Am I missing something? The committee’s job is ranking teams. They didn’t create the format. Blame the administrators who came up with it.

You nailed it. Klatt's aiming at the wrong target.

 

[LandoComando]

If your goal is to win the national championship, I disagree. I like our chances of winning against SMU and Boise State but I do not like playing Georgia in the Semis after having played 2 games to their 1. Winning 4 games in a row against top 10 teams is much more difficult than it is to win 3 games in a row against top 10 teams.

When you run the percentages, playing an additional game makes it less likely that we win the NC let alone make it to the Semi Finals. If you assume we have a 60% of beating SMU and then a 60% chance of beating Boise State, then our chances of making it to the semi-finals is 36%. I think we would have a better than 36% chance of beating OSU / Tennessee.

Georgia without Beck after they likely play ND? I like it.
I think our chances are way better than 60 and way less than 36% against Ohio State.

 

[Obliviax]

Would Oregon really be glad to see Boise State again?

Oregon playing at home needed a last minute FG to beat Boise State 37-34
Boise State's All-America running back Ashton Jeanty went for 195 yards and 3 TDs vs the Ducks.

So is Oregon's run defense greatly improved since early season?
Well, maybe, but Penn State ran for 297 yards at 8.7 yards/carry vs Oregon last week.

Oregon ends up with a bye in Week 1 and gets to watch Ohio State and Tennessee beat each other up.
Not a bad bracket for the Ducks IMO.

Jeanty had a great game but there is more to the story. Oregon was up 27-20 and driving into Boise territory. Patrick Herbert fumbled giving the ball to Boise at their own 30. On the first play, Jeanty went for 70 yards for a TD. That was about 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. That was probably a 14 to 17 point turn around. Instead of being up by 10 or 14, Oregon was suddenly tied. Also, that accounts for 70 of Jeanty's 190 yards rushing that day. Oregon also lost possession on two consecutive possessions on fumble so O had two turnovers to Boise's zero. Both were in the 4th quarter and both resulted in TDs for Boise. It was quite a change in momentum.

 

[Jerry]

You move got the brackets mixed up a bit. If we get to ND/Ga it would be in the semis, not quarters. Plus, we can’t see UO until the final.

I can’t believe I most agree with Dennis Dodd. If Ga has a functioning QB, I think they win. Oregon’s run defense is paper mache as we proved. The Dawgs will own the LOS

Georgia's starting QB is done for the year. The back-up looked serviceable against Texas but he wasn't asked to do a whole lot. In any case, you'd have to think Georgia's playoff chances have taken a hit.

 

[LandoComando]

I'm not sure. Oregon needed a last second FG to beat Boise yet these analysts think PSU should beat them easily.

Regarding format: I'm OK with conference winners getting an automatic spot but I don't think they should get an automatic 1st round bye. Winning your conference basketball tournament gets you an automatic bid, but it doesn't guarantee you a number one seed

Early season games aren't the best indicator. Oregon would love to play Boise again

 

[Jerry]

He's not wrong though
Oregon has the an awful path to the semis compared to us
Penn State literally could get ACC runner up, MWC champ and Georgia without Beck to make a final
They have to change how they seed teams
Oregon would have been better off with the 5 seed--we would have been worse off had we won
Maybe Drew was told to throw the pick

Haha! Funny stuff on that last line, Lando.

 

[Obliviax]

Georgia's starting QB is done for the year. The back-up looked serviceable against Texas but he wasn't asked to do a whole lot. In any case, you'd have to think Georgia's playoff chances have taken a hit.

so both SEC participants got severely damaged playing in the CCG game: TX due to the loss and GA suffering a major injury in the win.

 

[LandoComando]

so both SEC participants got severely damaged playing in the CCG game: TX due to the loss and GA suffering a major injury in the win.

I'm hoping the Beck injury ends CCGs since the committee didn't want to do it

 

[Obliviax]

I'm not sure. Oregon needed a last second FG to beat Boise yet these analysts think PSU should beat them easily.

Regarding format: I'm OK with conference winners getting an automatic spot but I don't think they should get an automatic 1st round bye. Winning your conference basketball tournament gets you an automatic bid, but it doesn't guarantee you a number one seed

Boise is a great and deserving team, but that Oregon game was a bit of an anomaly.

Jeanty had a great game but there is more to the story. Oregon was up 27-20 and driving into Boise territory. Patrick Herbert fumbled giving the ball to Boise at their own 30. On the first play, Jeanty went for 70 yards for a TD. That was about 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. That was probably a 14 to 17 point turnaround. Instead of being up by 10 or 14, Oregon was suddenly tied. Also, that accounts for 70 of Jeanty's 190 yards rushing that day. Oregon also lost possession on two consecutive possessions on fumble so O had two turnovers to Boise's zero. Both were in the 4th quarter and both resulted in TDs for Boise. It was quite a change in momentum.

 

[slykens]

PSU fans can't say much until the team beats a good opponent.

I’m very much enjoying the schadenfreude of Alabama and Ole Miss missing the playoff after their fans were busy running their gums in a few of the Reddit game threads.

Further to that, PSU does take care of the business it is expected to and isn’t getting boat raced by 6-6 teams with an offense that sets college ball back by 75 years.

You’re right in that PSU needs to start winning against better competition but that doesn’t mean Alabama is a better team.

 

[ryoder1]

We have a better draw at 6 than Oregon's. Klatt is being Captain Obvious. Klatt is a dope though for being so dismissive of SMU and Boise. He should know better that these are good teams that certainly could beat us.

If we had been #1, the after glow of beating Oregon would be fading and the cold hard reality of potentially facing OSU in the Rose Bowl would be setting in. If we had to face OSU in Pasadena, I would be hopeful but very skeptical we could pull it off. After all, Day has made a career beating Franklin. Most likely our offense that was a juggernaut versus Orgeon would turtle up in Pasadena.

 

[bdgan]

With respect to PSU, even though SMU and Boise St. are good teams who will be difficult to beat, PSU will get very little credit for beating them and if they lose to ND or Georgia in the semi finals, the talking heads will still argue that we have not beaten anyone.

How do you think fans will react if we lose to SMU?

 

[LandoComando]

How do you think fans will react if we lose to SMU?

Fire Franklin will be the opinion of many if not most. He can't lose that game. Can't.

 

[ryoder1]

How do you think fans will react if we lose to SMU?

It will get ugly.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

How do you think fans will react if we lose to SMU?

Do tell, when is the last time that CJF lost to a lower ranked significant underdog @TheBeav?

 

[LandoComando]

Do tell, when is the last time that CJF lost to a lower ranked significant underdog @TheBeav?

Hence if
We all expect to win
We should win
If he doesn't it's a problem because then he can't win any big game

 

[ryoder1]

Fire Franklin will be the opinion of many if not most. He can't lose that game. Can't.

Yes he needs to win and beat Boise and that is at a minimum. If Beck is out and I think he is then the expectation is we should win that one. If we lose to Georgia though it will still be a solid/good season (not great because who did we really beat?) but people will be pissed because of the missed opportunity. The James can't win the big game shouting will persist and rightfully so.

 

[Obliviax]

Yes he needs to win and beat Boise and that is at a minimum. If Beck is out and I think he is then the expectation is we should win that one. If we lose to Georgia though it will still be a solid/good season (not great because who did we really beat?) but people will be pissed because of the missed opportunity. The James can't win the big game shouting will persist and rightfully so.

I don't think GA gets by ND without Beck.

 

[Jerry]

I don't think GA gets by ND without Beck.

Notre Dame could be the sleeper team in this tournament. They have that one terrible mystifying 2-point loss to Northern Illinois early in the year but after that have not been threatened...or hardly even challenged...by any other team on their schedule. Louisville kept the final score respectable but the Irish have blown out most of their other opponents.

Another team to watch, in my opinion, is Ohio State. They're looking for redemption after the shocker to Michigan. I can't see Tennessee beating them in the Shoe and then would come a rematch with Oregon at the Rose Bowl. When two teams are relatively evenly matched, I think the loser of their first game has an edge in a rematch.

Speaking of pressure, there's a fair amount of it on Ryan Day to make a serious run in this tournament.

 

[Obliviax]

Notre Dame could be the sleeper team in this tournament. They have that one terrible mystifying 2-point loss to Northern Illinois early in the year but after that have not been threatened...or hardly even challenged...by any other team on their schedule. Louisville kept the final score respectable but the Irish have blown out most of their other opponents.

Another team to watch, in my opinion, is Ohio State. They're looking for redemption after the shocker to Michigan. I can't see Tennessee beating them in the Shoe and then would come a rematch with Oregon at the Rose Bowl. When two teams are relatively evenly matched, I think the loser of their first game has an edge in a rematch.

Speaking of pressure, there's a fair amount of it on Ryan Day to make a serious run in this tournament.

Yep...and they have a very favorable schedule: Indy, GA, PSU/SMU/Boise right into the finals.

 

[LandoComando]

Notre Dame could be the sleeper team in this tournament. They have that one terrible mystifying 2-point loss to Northern Illinois early in the year but after that have not been threatened...or hardly even challenged...by any other team on their schedule. Louisville kept the final score respectable but the Irish have blown out most of their other opponents.

Another team to watch, in my opinion, is Ohio State. They're looking for redemption after the shocker to Michigan. I can't see Tennessee beating them in the Shoe and then would come a rematch with Oregon at the Rose Bowl. When two teams are relatively evenly matched, I think the loser of their first game has an edge in a rematch.

Speaking of pressure, there's a fair amount of it on Ryan Day to make a serious run in this tournament.

ND is a complete unknown since they haven't played literally anyone. Army and Navy are saving their schedules. They didn't even get Ga Tech's starting QB

 

[baircub1!]

Just looking around: CBS Sports brain trust predictions

• We go to the semi final to lose to ND
• Semi Final loss to GA
• Semi Final loss to ND
• Lose to SMU
• Semi Final loss to GA
• Final loss to Oregon
• Semi Final, lose to GA

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With less than two weeks until games begin, our CBS Sports experts have prognosticated how the 2024-25 College Football Playoff will play out

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I know Ohio state has their OL issues..but my gut tells me that they beat Oregon...Ohio State is playing for everything including "revenge"...they just need to open it up with their passing game...

 

[baircub1!]

Notre Dame could be the sleeper team in this tournament. They have that one terrible mystifying 2-point loss to Northern Illinois early in the year but after that have not been threatened...or hardly even challenged...by any other team on their schedule. Louisville kept the final score respectable but the Irish have blown out most of their other opponents.

Another team to watch, in my opinion, is Ohio State. They're looking for redemption after the shocker to Michigan. I can't see Tennessee beating them in the Shoe and then would come a rematch with Oregon at the Rose Bowl. When two teams are relatively evenly matched, I think the loser of their first game has an edge in a rematch.

Speaking of pressure, there's a fair amount of it on Ryan Day to make a serious run in this tournament.

totally agree.

 

[GregInPitt]

Klatt is a legend in his own mind. The kind of "analyst" that the mute button was made for.....

 

[PSUeng]

Dallas area (where SMU is located) gets some nasty damp/bone chilling weather in late Dec - early Feb. Not comparing it to State College but let's not act like they haven't experienced lousy weather.

I lived in Dallas and Panama City FL. it snowed both places but was once in a few years. Never as cold as PA or for as long. I think there is a big difference of how each team will handle the cold if it is in the low 30 or below. At 40 degrees both will be fine.

 

[Ward Hog]

They know they were lucky to beat Ohio State last time. And Penn State has just shown Ohio State how to beat Oregon.

Unfortunately for OSU, Day is too proud to follow our lead because he wants to prove to the world that his is bigger than everyone else's.

 

[Lion84]

I lived in Dallas and Panama City FL. it snowed both places but was once in a few years. Never as cold as PA or for as long. I think there is a big difference of how each team will handle the cold if it is in the low 30 or below. At 40 degrees both will be fine.

Also it's not like SMU is playing football in late December in Dallas - walking around campus maybe so this will be a change - and I believe their stadium is turf not grass so that will be a change for them.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

Also it's not like SMU is playing football in late December in Dallas - walking around campus maybe so this will be a change - and I believe their stadium is turf not grass so that will be a change for them.

Opening line has PSU -7.5....

 

[bdgan]

Notre Dame could be the sleeper team in this tournament. They have that one terrible mystifying 2-point loss to Northern Illinois early in the year but after that have not been threatened...or hardly even challenged...by any other team on their schedule. Louisville kept the final score respectable but the Irish have blown out most of their other opponents.

USC had 557 yds compared to 436 yds for ND. The only reason ND won was because Maiava had 2 pick 6s. No wonder Miller Moss entered the portal.

 

[GSPMax]

I think that when saying "joel is taking it hard", "it" should be defined.

 

[Jerry]

Dallas area (where SMU is located) gets some nasty damp/bone chilling weather in late Dec - early Feb. Not comparing it to State College but let's not act like they haven't experienced lousy weather.

Dallas doesn't get a lot of snow or ice but it does happen on occasion and typically in January-February. During college football season in the fall, however, it's generally warm down there...or at least mild...and I doubt SMU has had many home games, if any, in what could be considered truly cold weather.

I do remember a famous Cotton Bowl in 1979 when Notre Dame mounted an incredible comeback to beat Houston in horrible weather...wind chills in the single digits...but that was on January 1. You don't see that kind of thing in the September-November timeframe in Dallas. If it's winter-time cold in Happy Valley on December 21, you'd think that would be to our advantage against a team from Texas.

 

[KCLion]

Dallas doesn't get a lot of snow or ice but it does happen on occasion and typically in January-February. During college football season in the fall, however, it's generally warm down there...or at least mild...and I doubt SMU has had many home games, if any, in what could be considered truly cold weather.

I do remember a famous Cotton Bowl in 1979 when Notre Dame mounted an incredible comeback to beat Houston in horrible weather...wind chills in the single digits...but that was on January 1. You don't see that kind of thing in the September-November timeframe in Dallas. If it's winter-time cold in Happy Valley on December 21, you'd think that would be to our advantage against a team from Texas.

SMU beat Pitt in the Cotton Bowl in January of 83 on a nasty day weather wise. Was really happy to be inside the Superdome in New Orleans that day.

 

[Jerry]

USC had 557 yds compared to 436 yds for ND. The only reason ND won was because Maiava had 2 pick 6s. No wonder Miller Moss entered the portal.

Don't remind me. I put money on USC plus 7.5 points in that game and had a good chance to win except for those two ridiculous pick-6's. I mean, 99 and 100 friggin' yards...one after the other. Are you kidding me???

I was mainly watching our game against Maryland at the time but also keeping track of Notre Dame-USC, and I think the Irish took control in the 3rd quarter before a crazy 4th quarter.

But your point is valid. It's fair to say Notre Dame was at least challenged in that game. Still, for them to win in USC's stadium by 14 -- it would have been 21 if not for a meaningless USC touchdown right at the end -- counts as a pretty good win. Recall our own hair-raising experience against the Trojans. I mean, it's not like USC has no talent.

 

[PurposePitch]

Would Oregon really be glad to see Boise State again?

Oregon playing at home needed a last minute FG to beat Boise State 37-34
Boise State's All-America running back Ashton Jeanty went for 195 yards and 3 TDs vs the Ducks.

So is Oregon's run defense greatly improved since early season?
Well, maybe, but Penn State ran for 297 yards at 8.7 yards/carry vs Oregon last week.

Oregon ends up with a bye in Week 1 and gets to watch Ohio State and Tennessee beat each other up.
Not a bad bracket for the Ducks IMO.

Oregon was also only up 17-14 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter of their game against the vaunted Vandals of Idaho ... I'm sure they'd also welcome playing Idaho in the CFP. It took Oregon a little while in the beginning of the season to get it all working properly. But they're fine now ... still beatable, but they'd handle Boise.

 

[94LionsFan]

It will get ugly.

 

[PurposePitch]

I don't think GA gets by ND without Beck.

Stockton > Beck

 

[IANit]

Its great to have ankle biters again. Of course, we have to win. SMU is no pushover. They are a team that deserved their playoff spot and will play hard and loose.

I hope our players don't get caught up in this nonsense. The seeding is out of their control. The brackets are set up the way they normally are, but the seeds aren't the true seeds because of the automatic tie-ins. That's a good football team regardless of the seed. We need to be ready for this one. They have some really good skill players and can score in a hurry with explosive plays.

 

[LandoComando]

I hope our players don't get caught up in this nonsense. The seeding is out of their control. The brackets are set up the way they normally are, but the seeds aren't the true seeds because of the automatic tie-ins. That's a good football team regardless of the seed. We need to be ready for this one. They have some really good skill players and can score in a hurry with explosive plays.

All of that is fine but we have to set realistic expectations here
This is a home game that we're expected to win
If/when we do win it--we're expected to beat Boise State
It's not a bad thing for players to understand expectations--they have to perform but they should go in confident because they're significantly better. SMU shouldn't be in the playoff is we're looking for the best 12 teams--a loss isn't okay here and I don't think we'll have to worry about losing.